Something I have noticed.

[jose]

Is there such a thing as "Smart money" in the racing game???????

Something I have noticed, that has been going on for a while now, is that the first horse that gets accepted by the backers has been going very well.

As an example, I put up my lay prices a few turns of the board below what is currently available, and it seems that the first one that gets taken is actually getting up a good percentage of the time.

Today for example, there were 16 markets I worked in, and from that there were 5 winners from the first bet taken and 10 place getters.

The full results at Unitab prices are..

16 bets / 5 winners & 10 place getters.
Win return = 19.40
Place return = 16.20

I have tried backing them on BF for a place, but the markets are too thin to get set for any amount at the right price most of the time.

Just wondering if anyone else has noticed anything similar, as there could be an angle here. IMVHO

[The Ocho]

Very interesting jose. How many ticks below the the current price do you place your lay bets? At what stage is this? 1 hour, 5 minutes, 2 minutes? Are you finding that the lowest or lower priced ones are the one coming in?

Sorry for all the questions but just trying to clarify.

Also the $19.40 & $16.20, is that clear profit or is that a 3.40 and 20c profit for the 16 horses?

[jose]

How many ticks below the the current price do you place your lay bets?
Depends, usually 4 .

At what stage is this? 1 hour, 5 minutes, 2 minutes?
Roughly 5 mins as a rule.

Are you finding that the lowest or lower priced ones are the one coming in?
Prices are all over the place, it doesn't seem to matter.
Which leads me to believe that there is a bit of smart place money about.

Todays results were....

21 bets for 4 winners and 12 place getters.
Return for the win = $16:00 (small loss)
Return for place = $23:80 (small win)
These are Unitab divvies.

The winners were 2.50, 3.30, 6.20, 4.00.
The biggest placegetter paid 4.20.

This is pretty much what I have ben seeing for a while now, it seems to sort of hold it's own for the win, but for the place it definitely seems to be a winner.

[The Ocho]

Thanks for clarifying jose. Are you laying in the win or place market though?

[jose]

Laying in the win market and the first bet taken by the "backers" is the one I am talking about.
Seems to go OK for the place.
As I said, I tried backing them on BF for the place but the markets are too thin as a general rule, so I gave it a miss.
I am toying with the idea of starting an account with on of the Corps who bets best Tote and seeing how that goes. Only problem being I often don't have much time in the last 5 mins leading up to the off.
Will keep putting up the results for a few days and see if there is any interest.

[beton]

I have been thinking of another line whilst plugging away on another tack. I see a lot of silly lay bets ie 1 cent etc go up on the board very early. Obviously it is a method trying to get a mistake etc. It is beyond me anyway.
However what if you offered to lay (say an hour out) $2 per runner all runners. If two were matched you would be marginally in front, if 3 plus were matched you would be way out in front. Even one matched may be a winner overall. I don't know. I am throwing it out there. Beton

[jose]

Getting them matched is the thing Beton.
Not as much mug money on BF anymore.

[jose]

Mildura 7 - 2. Rhodehaven.

[jose]

Mil 8 -2