Looking for Value

[Star]

Not being a Maths guru I hope some of you can give me a hand. I hope some others can see something in my fuzzy logic and help to clarify my thinking.

The fact that on this site we only have five minutes to edit does complicate things a bit, especially when one does not know what they really want to say.

( Does that make sense ? )

Ok. He's my thoughts. None of my starting points might be logical, but you have to start somehere, it's ok to point out the negatives but please the rubbishing out of it because that helps nobody and certainly makes other newbies reluctant to join in. Sometimes, you need new blood, just to relook at things from a different perspective.

My line of thinking at the moment.

1. To win over a period, I have to find a value horse to repay my losses.

2. The take from the TABS is 15%, but they also round down, so Maybe that might take an extra 2or 3%. I do not know, others might. So. if the real take out is 18% then we only have an available pool of 82%

To make things easier, and adding in a required P.O.T of about 3 to 5 % means that we are dealing with a pool of about 75 % to get our returns. ( ? )

3. So, taking one step at a time. What are the minimum odds needed to break even with a 25 deduction.

4. Having got this ( magic figure ) maybe, then taking our SR into consideration, we can work out, where we should be looking and where to avoid.

-------

Make sense? probably not. When I reread this later I will probably say, " what was I thinking. "

Star

ps.

I have to hit the send button quickly before I re read and cancel the whole post.

[The Ocho]

Hi Star. I'm not sure about the math but as far as making a post or thread here I don't think it times out when making it (you only have 5 minutes to edit it) but if that IS the case then can I make a couple of suggestions for anyone (including newbies):

Either copy what you've written so far after a period (and keep copying) OR write it up in word or whatever and just paste it in here when you're happy with what you've written.

Good luck in your endeavors.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Star,

A good place to start when trying to secure value is to look at the favourite and ask:
1/ Has it won at the distance and if not is it bred to run this distance?
2/ Does it like today's track conditions - Good, dead, slow etc
3/ Is it trained by a quality trainer with a decent Jock on top.
4/ Win strike >20%

If the answer is no to at least 3 from 4 of the points then it's worth looking at the remaining horses in the race.

If the answer is YES, to these questions, then you have to calculate a minimum acceptable price. If this is too daunting there are many services that frame markets for you at a cost.

I hope this is of some help to you, I'm not sure about your maths in your initial post, however look at it as you have to be 30% better than your opposition punters to make a profit.

The Schmile

[norisk]

Hi Star, sounds logical to me - 'value', 'overs', call it whatever you like.

The odds bracket approx $7 to $16 is where I find best value, & where you may like to start looking.

[AngryPixie]

3. So, taking one step at a time. What are the minimum odds needed to break even with a 25 deduction.


There's no minimum odds as it will depend on the eventual starting price of your selection. Using your figures you need to get a price that is 25% better than the eventual starting price. Good luck with that ;)

eg. Horse starts at 2 therefore you need to secure 2.5.
Horse starts at 5 therefore you need to secure 6.25.

[Chrome Prince]

Star,
Perhaps look at it from a different angle.
You are concentrating on the takeout factor a little too hard in my opinion.
In 100% markets there may be no value, in 140% markets there may still be good value.

Here is an example, and I'm not skiting because to me it stood out like the proverbial.
I've done very well in reality show markets over the years.
I don't know why, but I think I have a knack of reading talent and what makes people popular.
A person has to resonate with the voters, be somewhat of an underdog or hard luck story, but also have an edge. The voters are generally teen girls.
They don't vote for the pretty skinny girl, they vote for someone they can relate to.

To the point, I pegged Karise Eden on The Voice as a winner after her very first audition. She had all the factors plus the talent and an extra "quirkyness".
I took early $4.00 on Betfair and I believe the final price was $1.30 or a bit better. The market percentage when I took $4.00 was 128%.

There were also quite a few very short odds such as Rachel Leachar and Sarah De Bono, which I laid.

For what it's worth, I had overlooked Darren Percival and am still scratching my head as to how he could possibly have come second. It makes no sense when you look at past reality history. Was it the Keith Urban factor?

However, I rated Karise Eden an even money shot early and odds on after a few performances, so got huge overs on her in 128% market.

It is possible.

I rated them in this order:
1. Karise Eden
2. Sarah De Bono
3. Rachel Leachar
4. A long last Darren Percival after he murdered the Stevie Wonder song.

[Vortech]

So basically look for horses that can sing a good stevie wonder song?.
. and there is value??

[The Ocho]

So basically look for horses that can sing a good stevie wonder song?.
. and there is value??
:D :D :D


http://www.fishingtexas.net/discus/messages/10/13478.jpg

[Chrome Prince]

:D Bingo!

[Chrome Prince]

To take the analogy one step further...

Say the top jockey with the top trainer, on the top horse, is most likely to get the vote.
Therein lies early value, but later value lies within a good horse, average trainer, decent jockey.
So 120% market might still be value, if the punters are going to plunge on the favourite.

[Vortech]

I often look at horse ownership. Larger syndicates often over bet on there own horse. Anything in pink and white under hancox has limited value

[norisk]

So 120% market might still be value, if the punters are going to plunge on the favourite.

Exactamundo

[Dennis G]

....such as Rachel Leachar and Sarah De Bono, which I laid.
Shouldn't that read "who I laid" and..... you lucky dawg... :)

[Star]

Thanks.

Some interesting replies. but not quite what I was looking for mainly because, while you all answered my question correctly after I re read it the question was not exactly what I wanted to say.

It might have something to do with the fact that if I knew the question, the answer or answers might be a lot easier to find.

I will have to rethink a better way to express my thoughts in my fuzzzy logic and maybe one of you might be able to understand my gibberish better than me.

Star.

[Star]

OK Time to revisit my thinking. I had three bets today over two systems.

System 1 Belmont R3 no 11 Wildwood which , is now, after the fact Won paying $12.70. So Sytem 1 is doing ok after a run of outs of 7.

System 2 has two bets. neither have run yet, if they have I have not looked.

Belmont R8 No. 6 Hurritdanz

Belmont R 9 No 4 A cheatin Smile.

I will post this now and give my thoughts after the race. I am on a runof outs of 6 on this system.

Pete

[Star]

Before System 2's first horse goes off in 15 minutes at Belmont my thinking is that with a current SR of 20 % and a current run of outs of 6 I expect a winner in next six races.

Star

[Star]

A Third and an unplaced. Now a run of outs of 8. Worst loosing run of outs is 13.

So unless the curse gets me, I am looking for a winner in the next five races. What I expect to happen is to actually get a few winners closely following each other to maintain the SR.

The odds seem to look after themselves so I will post the runners up to fourteen consecuctive loosers.

This system can stand a run of outs like that while I can get a price average of about 6 or more.

Star

ps

No qualifiers for either system tomorrow, Thursday

[Star]

To follow on.

System 1, my oldest is performing ok. Had I bet for a $5 winner yesterday.

But System 2, my latest is interesting. I need some more quick filters for it, too time consuming and too many bets in a day for my likeing. Anyway, here are todays bets. I am putting them up to defy the forum curse, if they can overcome that and the likely prospect of a public flogging then the system might have some value with extra research.

Now, what I try to do with my systems is to have a draw down, once I get in front a fair bet. The words of ' CRASH " still ring in my ear. Remember him, he was the voice of doom but a very important member here because he bought you down from your highs.

System 2 is in profit just.
SR now down to 17% where averag has been 21 to 22%. On past records that has indicated I am due for a string of quick winners in a short space of time to nget the % back into the 20's.

My current runof outs is 8. I have 12 bets today, if all loose that is 20 losses in a row. My thinking is that once a system hits twenty I have to reject it or refine. The worst this system and its variations have been is 13. That is only based on about four or five months figures but the consistency has been their in that time.

Ok He is the Death numbers.

BELMONT
R3 H4 Trustee Brown
R4 H11 Sweet Serenity
R8 H 12 I see things you dont

EAGLE FARM
R7 H12 Forfeiture
R8 H3 Tierqualo

FLEMINGTON
R7 H8 Dash for Viz

MORPHETVILLE
R4 H5 Food Eater
R5 H13 Rubdoubt
R8 H9 Lady Dynamo

WARWICK FARM
R4 H1 All Legal
R6 H9 Kimberley Lad
R8 H5 General's Sniper

At this stage, this system is still in the testing and instead of paper trialling it I have 50 cents on each bet until the bank rises then the % bet increases with some adjustments for sanity.

Their is too many bets for me here but 12 bets ais only an outlay of $6 but if the bank rises then 12 horses at a much higher bet takes me well out of my comfort zone. So we will see.

Star

[Star]

In paragraph 3, I said a " Fair bet " it should have read " A fair bit ". That's a big difference.

But cannot edit now, so sorry.

Star

[Star]

Well I had a shocker. Not sure if the neural changes made a difference or not.
I had one scratching and now am on a loosing run of 19.

Just as well I am only using 50 cents bets.

I knew I was in trouble when I noticed the neurals changing before my eyes. Hence all my other posts on the other thread. I do not want to throw the baby out with the bath water but got some serious thinking to do.

Might have to run some paper trials, the Neurals have almost lost me.

Pete

[Lord Greystoke]

Stay in the saddle, Star.

Best use for them I have found is,
As a final filter for 2-3 top chances,
Rather than as an outright selection system.

Just need to determine the top 2-3 nags first!

Having said that..
Decided to apply the Ns(only) today to shortlist top chances in Flem quaddie,
To get a feel for whether they could still be useful as an initial filter.

Managed to pull in 3 outa 4 legs using...
(a) combination of CP,CF,JA,TA,JT settings
(b) top N selections <$10

Cheers LG

[garyf]

Be careful with the J/A J/T in the neurals L.G.

I used them for a good long time the problem,
I found was that as the neurals came out at,
Least 24 hours before the races the actual jockey,
That was listed beside the horse in the neurals,
Wasn't actually the jockey that rode the horse on the day.

Thus making the actual rating useless, up to you?.
The other 3 are excellent filters C/P C/F T/A.

Good luck with it.

Cheers.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks for the heads up, garyf.

So if we get any jockey changes <24rs before jump,
JA and JT settings are worth nowt?

I will 're-do' the flem quaddie without these 2,
And see what transpires.

Cheers LG


PS Is it possible that the Ns are adjusted once the jockey change announced?

[Star]

Stay in the saddle, Star.

Best use for them I have found is,
As a final filter for 2-3 top chances,
Rather than as an outright selection system.

Just need to determine the top 2-3 nags first!

Having said that..
Decided to apply the Ns(only) today to shortlist top chances in Flem quaddie,
To get a feel for whether they could still be useful as an initial filter.

Managed to pull in 3 outa 4 legs using...
(a) combination of CP,CF,JA,TA,JT settings
(b) top N selections <$10

Cheers LG


Well done LG. But what minute past the hour did you do it. if you were held up for a few hours, with the exact same filters could you be sure that you would have the same top chances.

That's my quandry.

Star

[garyf]

To my knowledge they never change for the jockeys.

I used them for nearly 8 years up till around 2010.

Never once did i see any column change once they were up.
The only thing that did change was the order of there ranking.
As individual horses became scratchings during the day.

Haven't looked today i set all the neurals to=0 as Star,
Said when he did it he still had ratings showing.

I tested 20 races after hitting ("set preference scale= 0".)
And everything came out as =0 as it should.

Unless they have altered recently everything appears as it should.

Maybe i am doing something different to others?.

Cheers.

[Lord Greystoke]

Well done LG. But what minute past the hour did you do it. if you were held up for a few hours, with the exact same filters could you be sure that you would have the same top chances.

That's my quandry.

Star
It's an interesting quandry Star,
Not sure if you will crack it however!

Cheers LG

[garyf]

Hi Star.


I must admit you have me completely bamboozled in trying,
To help you out here.

What you are saying if say in the C/P column A HORSES,
Rating or number continually alters.

Let's look at SAY FLEMINGTON R=5

Go to set preference scale put the C/P in as 5.
Then mark everything else to=0

NOS=3- -40.0
NOS=10-18.3.
then 5 horses on 11.7.
Every other setting should be showing=0.

What you say is the above figures keep changing during the day,
So nos 3 in the C/P might alter to 35.0 nos 10 may become 20.5 etc.

Forget the order i just want to know if the above example,
I have given is correct.

Cheers.

[AngryPixie]

Well I had a shocker. Not sure if the neural changes made a difference or not.
I had one scratching and now am on a loosing run of 19.


May not be a shocker. Could be what you should be expecting. What's your average starting price?

[Star]

In reply to " garyf ". You might be a few steps ahead of me on this. What I did was to put O in each category.

The results showed the order of the new neural order. I did not bother to look at the individual column. They may well have been nought in each, I will pick a few races for tomorrow or Monday soon and record the time and results.

What I was concerned with is note the Numerals rating number, but the combined total which should give me an order for all the combined settings.

But, I had O in all yet they still recorded a Neural preference order. In the few races I looked at their was a different combined neural order. I would have expected a void sign or error but did not.

So, if we set O as our default and it still comes up with a Neural prefernce order, when in my opinion it should not give an implied order at all, then maybe they have some hidden defaults in there even though in the individual columns it is not shown.

I do not know, and I may be writing utter crap, but I will watch it more closely now.

Star

[Star]

May not be a shocker. Could be what you should be expecting. What's your average starting price?
I understand Angry that with my SR of about 20% I have seen an Article that says with my SR, I may experience a run of outs of 25 to 28 Average run of outs. It also states a Worst run of 75.

But my worst until today was 13, now it is 19. My Average winner is about 7 to1, with a few highs of 16 and 15 in their. I also now think that with a run of outs of twenty afour quick winners brings things back into order.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Star,

With a 20-22% strike rate, you will experience runs of 20+. Keep the faith if you think the selection method has merit. Have you experienced a run of 2nd's and 3rd's in this period?

Here's some figures Bhagwan provided regarding expected runs of outs vs strike rate.

Strike Rate(%) -----Max. Outs in a Row
5-------------------- 135
10------------------- 66
15------------------- 43
20------------------- 31
25------------------- 24
30------------------- 19
35------------------- 16
40------------------- 14
45------------------- 12
50------------------- 10
55------------------- 9
60------------------- 8
65------------------- 7
70------------------- 6
75------------------- 5
80------------------- 4
85------------------- 4
90------------------- 3
95------------------- 2

The Schmile

[AngryPixie]

I understand Angry that with my SR of about 20% I have seen an Article that says with my SR, I may experience a run of outs of 25 to 28 Average run of outs. It also states a Worst run of 75.

But my worst until today was 13, now it is 19. My Average winner is about 7 to1, with a few highs of 16 and 15 in their. I also now think that with a run of outs of twenty afour quick winners brings things back into order.

The 7 to 1 is the important number here not the 20% SR. What's your expected run of outs at 7 to 1?

[garyf]

Hi star


I understand what you are saying when you put everything to = 0
Yet it still shows an order.

It should display the T.A.B. ORDER you would think.

Eg
Flem race=1
Settings= 0

order
7-1-9-4-6-3-8-2.

These are not the default settings either.
I have no idea why this is so but i can tell you,
Once you establish a setting order in each column.
The integral value will only change if you change,
The actual setting say from 3 to 5 etc.

The = 0 with an order i can't explain if it's factored for,
Something then it should be the same for all no matter what the settings
Are that you use.

Cheers.

[garyf]

This is what may be of better use star.


Strike rate =20%
Runs of expected outs.
Nos of bets.
10=(5.8)
100=(15.5)
1,000=(25.8)
10,000=(36.9)

Article (mathematics for the punter)Author(the turf accountant)
Source(Punters Choice)

When you get sufficient bets up bank drawdown is best.

For the moment this may explain it as to why this is happening.

Heed A.P T.S. and others it's all relevant.

Cheers.

[lomaca]

Hi star


I understand what you are saying when you put everything to = 0
Yet it still shows an order.

It should display the T.A.B. ORDER you would think.

Eg
Flem race=1
Settings= 0

order
7-1-9-4-6-3-8-2.

Cheers.Hi Gary, every sort routine will default to some value, depending on data.
In this case it's alphabetical if no other is available, followed by Tab Numbers etc.

Don't want to get involved but I hardly ever find the ranking order to change much even after scratching.
Cheers

[Star]

The 7 to 1 is the important number here not the 20% SR. What's your expected run of outs at 7 to 1?You are getting me into unknown territory now. All I know, and have been watching closely is my consistent strike rate that varies between 19 and 26 % and is generally consistent about 20 to 22%.

So working on that, if I am correct means a winner in every five races so to go forward I have to achieve an average winer of 6s. I have been doing better then that and that is why my bank has been rising slowly but consistently.

In reply to your first part of the question I cannot tell you what my expected run of outs are at 7 to I. I think I do not quite understand what you are getting at but my thinking is we are both on the same tram and I may not be expressing myself very clearly.

The good Lord has provided us with list of expected run of outs. They are very close to what I feel comfortable with and try to work on a level of 40 outs at my 20% SR which works out at 2 1/2 % of bank.

As the bank rises I expect to make a withdrawal or reduce the bet to 2% and so on. Which is what I have done recently.

However Staking Plans are another side issue I am interested in, but not in this thread as it complicates what I am finding to be a very thought provoking thread for me.

Star

[garyf]

AAAHHH thanks for clearing that up for me Lomaca.

I was going bonkers not being able to work it out.

By the way.

"WELCOME BACK WAS WONDERING WHERE YOU WERE"

Other than a few posts on MO'S greyhound thread,
You have been quiet.

I know the reason i will go that way myself if it happens.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[lomaca]

AAAHHH thanks for clearing that up for me Lomaca.

I was going bonkers not being able to work it out.

By the way.

"WELCOME BACK WAS WONDERING WHERE YOU WERE"

Other than a few posts on MO'S greyhound thread,
You have been quiet.

I know the reason i will go that way myself if it happens.

Cheers.
Garyf.Thanks Gary, you know the reason, and I think I keep it this way.

Good luck to all.

[Star]

While this thread is drawing out, I think bit by bit we ( I ) am starting to get my head around this.

A lot has been discussed here. So, if I am correct in my thinking that the best time to do the neurals is after the Scratchings.

Anything before is still in Perpetual Motion if I can say that. Maybe an occassional alteration , but I can live with that.

However, what makes it difficult is the time factor, I generally have to put my bets on the night before, because time may not be on my side in the morning.

Star

ps

The good thing is my Number 1 System only has a few bets, so I might be able to manage that. The neural order is a very effective preliminary filter that has been very successful, I do not want to mess with that.

System 2 has much more bets, so the Neurals may not be the answer as a Pre Filter.

[AngryPixie]

I think I do not quite understand what you are getting at but my thinking is we are both on the same tram and I may not be expressing myself very clearly.

Star, a sad fact of life is that the further you go on the closer your strike rate is going to get to 12.5% (7/1). :( A 20% strike rate at an average SP of 7/1 represents an advantage of 60%. Wish you luck but you won't be able to maintain that long term. You may have mentioned it somewhere but how many bet's have you had?

[Star]

Angry, I know that my ROI is way out od the norm. I have been expecting it to fall over and has not.

My Number 1 System has been going for about for 5 or so months. I have had about 250 bets. And have recently had a redraw from it because I know it will not last.

Infact I have no confidence in the Neurals and have really been using it as a lay top senerio ommiting the first couple and going for value. I found it did not effect my SR but improved my return.

Makes no sense, but I will keep pushing on. The fact that I noticed they kept changing has jolted my thinking a bit and luck may have been on my shoulder. I do not know.

But as the old saying goes, " Do what you always do and you have no right to expect a different result. "

beacause this approach is so radically different to what I have done previously I will ride it out to see what happens.

[AngryPixie]

There's some stuff on here I've written about Chi-Square tests and sample sizes. You should find them with a search. Sorry don't have them at hand at present.

The bottom line is that the market is almost always going to be a better judge than you or me. From time to time variance is going to make us think we're on to a real winner but the market is very patient and knows its business.

[AngryPixie]

Here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=17425

[Star]

Here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=17425
Thanks for that link Angry. I had a quick look and will follow up in the morning. I can remember some of the more vibrant discussions in those days.

I am overwhelmed by the response to my questions and need some sleep to clear my head.

Thanks to you and all

Star

[Star]

Well, I have had a good sleep and ready for battle. Looked at the Neurals again and rejigged them to try to take some inconsitencies out of them yet still come close to my original neural Order.

It appears to me ( ? ) that some of their filters affect others , ( ? ) so what I have done is reduce or negate them because my final filters away from the neural eliminates or sorts it out hopefully.

So, without further ado, I am coming back for one more public flogging and shaming.

My System 1 has two bets today. I had worked them out a few days ago. With the adjustment to the starting Neurals which are now slightly different to what I started with I was able to come up with the same two horses,

System 2 which was the original reason for my query on the shifting sands of the neurals has no bets today because I only use that on Metropolitan tracks because of the sheer volume of bets.

So, today.

Casterton. R2 H2 Universal Sound

Sunshine Coast R7 H 10 All Coin

This system is on a run of outs of 2.

I am using an old spreadsheet I think I got from here a few years ago. Unfortunately, when I had my draw down I restarted the spreadsheet so do not have the back figures or statistics anymore.

If anybody can point me to some information on Spreadsheets I would appreciate it although the one I got from here is doing a great job. One of the old regulars on here put it up.

It has a chi square formulation built into it as well but I am not to sure if that is in working order. Some of the columns are password protected so I cannot use that but it suits my purpose.

Some of the hardheads on here obviously look at things I have never thought off and that is the value of this forum.

Star

ps

I do not mind putting these selections up before the race because of the replies and help given here. Sometimes you have got to give a bit and hopefully some snippets of information or angle is provided back that was never thought of.

Although, going on yesterday's result that should be a filter enough to stop anybody running with my ideas. ( lol )



Star

[UselessBettor]

So, without further ado, I am coming back for one more public flogging and
shaming.
Its all part of the fun of punting.

I wish you the best of luck this time through.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Star,

It sounds like you have your head screwed on properly and you're not putting ridiculous amounts of money on these selections; so it's all a bit of fun.

My advice is to try and analyse these selections down to the tiniest detail, to figure out exactly why a section is coming out on top. Once you have discovered that and fully understand the methodology, you're on your way to profit.

Good luck!!! :)

The Schmile

[moeee]

Although, going on yesterday's result that should be a filter enough to stop anybody running with my ideas. ( lol )

From the number of acknowledgements anywhere on any thread , I don't think that would be an issue regardless of how well you were travelling.

[Star]

Hi Star,

It sounds like you have your head screwed on properly and you're not putting ridiculous amounts of money on these selections; so it's all a bit of fun.

My advice is to try and analyse these selections down to the tiniest detail, to figure out exactly why a section is coming out on top. Once you have discovered that and fully understand the methodology, you're on your way to profit.

Good luck!!! :)

The Schmile

-----------

No big bets. Infact since i threw the form out the window a few months back I have been in front.

Never a big bettor I mainly used the exotics, the Treble was my favorite, Max spend of $20 per week.

They have been getting harder to get and when you do snag one the dividend is sometimes no better then an all up or often less.

Since, times are getting tougher here, the systems have been a godsend. I have started with a small deposit on Sportsbet, withdrawn my deposit plus a bit extra and have not had to use my money at all.

So, even if I crash out in the future I will be way infront because the losses have been controlled.

Star