R & S Neurals

[Star]

I have been playing around with the Neurals, not that I have much faith in them, but have sort of worked out an angle on how to improve them.

Or so I thought. Somebody mentioned in a recent post that the Neurals change regularly and it depends on when you do them. I did not take much notice until now.

Yesterday, I looked at them and noted a few. Tonight I rechecked an a couple were slightly different. Does that happen, or did I just record incorrectly.

For those that use them is their a standard cut off time. I like to try and sort things out well in advance because I do not have the time on race day.

Star

[The Ocho]

While you're asking about the Neural I wonder if anyone has a list of what all the abbreviations mean (like CP CF TIM etc). I can't find it on the site and I can't find it on here even though I remember seeing them somewhere.

[Lord Greystoke]

CLick on explanation Tab underneath the 2nd Neural Box on LHS,
Which shows the individual N's outcomes for each factor

Cheers LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Or click on this...

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/form-guide/help.asp?page=neurals

LG

[garyf]

The neurals only change in format for scratchings

You can get them 24 hours in advance where no scratchings are,
Listed or around 11.00 AM after scratchings where they will obviously,
Be adjusted up for the scratched horses depending of course on how,
Each individual neural is affected by the scratched horse(s).

So if you get them "now" in there full format they wont ever be the same,
When the scratchings come through in the morning.

They only change for this and this reason only not for the sake ,
Of somebody in at R+S has altered them.

Cheers.

[Star]

The neurals only change in format for scratchings

You can get them 24 hours in advance where no scratchings are,
Listed or around 11.00 AM after scratchings where they will obviously,
Be adjusted up for the scratched horses depending of course on how,
Each individual neural is affected by the scratched horse(s).

So if you get them "now" in there full format they wont ever be the same,
When the scratchings come through in the morning.

They only change for this and this reason only not for the sake ,
Of somebody in at R+S has altered them.

Cheers.Thanks for the reply Gary, I thought it was you that mentioned it, but was not sure.

I can see how they can change with a scratching, but to me, that would me that some might move up a place to take the scratched horse place. Why would the order change though.

eg, say. before scratchings: 3 6 9 5 7 2 1

Let's say No 5 is scratched . new order should be. : 3 6 9 7 2 1

But what I think im might be seeing is : 3 6 9 2 7 1

What am I missing

Star

[garyf]

Hi star.


It would probably depend on the exact neural rating it had in that exact column.
Say a horse was top points for the days and prizemoney column.

The next horse rated directly under it may move up in those columns.
BUT not necessarily move up in the overall ranking,
Depending on how the scratched horse rated in the other columns.
And how these other columns were affected as well as to what,
Horses moved up in order in the overall ratings.

It is hard to explain i know why but trying to explain it in simple Terms,
Is a little more difficult.

Hope you get it if not i will have another go.

Have a look at a race any race on the site now.
Pick out any horse and have a look at it's ratings across the board.

Then see if it has say a big time rating say and that's the reason it might
Be the top pick on that alone.

If it is scratched then the next in that column may not have sufficient points to elevate it to the top ranking.

Good luck but try the method i suggested untick some boxes and play,
Around a bit you can retick the boxes when you are finished.

This is the best way to experiment.

Good luck with it.

Cheers.

[Star]

Thanks again Gary.

I think I understand what you are saying if a horse is scratched and why one in a particular column might not have sufficient points to move up the ladder.

But what I still do not understand is, forgetting about an individual column and taking the sum total of all of them why a scratching can influence another horses positioning in the ladder, unless their is something in the neurals that figures in something like head to heads.

Then if their is a scratching I can see some points changing for those horses that have raced against the scratching in the past.

But, I am not sure that is figured in, so I am none the wiser.

Star

ps

Remember, I am talking about positions, not the individual points of each horse.

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much LG. Exactly what I was looking for. :)

[bernie]

what I still do not understand is, forgetting about an individual column and taking the sum total of all of them why a scratching can influence another horses positioning in the ladderStar, I was playing around with a system where I was using one column only. I deleted all the rest. I found that even after scratchings the positions could change later on. Not often, but sometimes. In the end out of frustration I gave up.

Another problem was, sometimes after a late scratching the neurals are not updated. This again caused frustration.

[Star]

Star, I was playing around with a system where I was using one column only. I deleted all the rest. I found that even after scratchings the positions could change later on. Not often, but sometimes. In the end out of frustration I gave up.

Another problem was, sometimes after a late scratching the neurals are not updated. This again caused frustration.---------------

Thanks Bernie.

I wonder if they have some hidden factors inbuilt that could cause that. I had just rechecked before i saw your reply and realized two areas that could be a cause.


1. I had Jockey Ability listed as a 3. But If a looked too early and their was a jockey change or none listed, i suspect in that would cause an adjustment.

2. The same for Wet tracks. I had it down as a three, maybe they altered the neurals as the track conditions came in.
\
So, I have reduced both of those figures down to Zero. The do not affect my system really, others the Neurals are just are starting point before my own filters.

I suspect I could just use any on line free rating service and go from their.

Thanks.

ps.

The odd changes are annoying though, I am pleased you picked up on it and I do not think Gary has the answer himself or he may have just misunderstood what i was trying to say.

[moeee]

I do not think Gary has the answer himself or he may have just misunderstood what i was trying to say.
I understood exactly what GaryF was saying , although I didn't attempt verifying it.
But it makes sense when you have points tally Systems that this situation can occur.

[bernie]

Star, I'm really not confident in the neurals. I do all my recording after scratchings in the hope they are near enough to correct.

[garyf]

Hi STAR.


Might be better if you rung the r+S site themselves
They are pretty good and will answer your query.

(02) 62884080.

I had contact with them several months ago with the,
Don Scott worksheets took a while to fix but they were,
ALWAYS AVAILABLE FOR PHONE CONTACT.

The other option is sending off an email but you may get,
Confused with the answer actually reading it.

I am confident the explanation will be similiar to mine,
Just haven't explained it so you can understand.

I also used the neurals as a 2nd system if you like,
On my bettable races only for several years.

My settings were C/P=5 CF=5 T/A=5 all others = 0.

This improved the strike rate way up from the default settings,
But on my race types only.

These could be worse if used on other race types.

Eventually as the bets built up the profit and strike rate,
Began to slowly erode and without more filters was about break even.

I eventually gave them away just concentrating 100% on what i am doing now.

You should look at the Don Scott worksheet as well and compare,
Selections to see which one suits and possibly can make more money.

Give the R+s phone nos a go i believe you should get the answer you want.
GOOD LUCK WITH IT ALL.

Cheers.

[UselessBettor]

It makes it hard to use the neurals if they keep changing. In my opinion it is best to grab them the night before and use that figure. That way your selections are always pre scratching.

I sometimes notice the figures for horses change if they have raced again within 7 days. It seems the figures take into account the future run because its in their database. for that reason I would not backtest any of the data on there and just start from tommorrow.

Its what I do.

For those who want historical data before scratchings I may be able to help out just like I help out Stix. Let me know if you need history.

[The Ocho]

Hi UB. I don't suppose you have any data for the Don Scott assessed prices? I know you have the DS rank on your "test a system" site but not the assessed prices.

You can email me at equalthree at yahoo dot com dot au if you don't want to attach it here.

[Star]

I have to thank everyone for their help and replies. I am still sorting through it and trying to work around it to get some more consistent figures.

Thanks

[UselessBettor]

Ocho,

2010 data below. I'll upload the rest when I get a chance.

http://ge.tt/78B6HVJ/v/0

I have included the position the horse finished and the tatts odds. It hopefully is what you wanted. Let me know if you want the 2011 and 2012 data.

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much for that UB. If you've got the others too that would be good.

I don't suppose you can also include the betfair odds on all of them?

[UselessBettor]

Ocho,

I can from Aug 2011 but I store them in different tables and it will take a little time to get it joined. It was a bad design decision by me.

Give me a few days and I'll setup it and then send it on to you.

Hopefully it helps you find something that works. If your looking at overlays though I can tell you I tried looking at it before and couldn't make it successful. I didn't spend too much time on it so maybe you will have more luck if that is your angle.

[The Ocho]

No worries. Thanks UB :)

I don't suppose you also store the race types at all?

[Lord Greystoke]

Star, ignore my post on the other thread.

Seems you are already well versed in the vagaries of the Ns and have sleeves rolled up, in there wading about looking for meaning, application etc

My mistake.

LG

[Star]

Star, ignore my post on the other thread.

Seems you are already well versed in the vagaries of the Ns and have sleeves rolled up, in there wading about looking for meaning, application etc

My mistake.

LG
Thanks LG.

I just saw your reply after answering the other thread. My comments still apply and still looking for the " Meaning of Life "

Star

[bernie]

What p's me off is, here it is a few minutes to go untill the first race and even within meetings we have some races adjusted for scratchings and others which have not. This is not uncommon with the Neurals. Very frustrating.

[moeee]

What p's me off is, here it is a few minutes to go untill the first race and even within meetings we have some races adjusted for scratchings and others which have not. This is not uncommon with the Neurals. Very frustrating.
I also get frustrated at times - MOST Times.
But you need ask yourself - Is this a FREE Service?
Would you go out of YOUR way to provide a FREE Service?

[Star]

I also get frustrated at times - MOST Times.
But you need ask yourself - Is this a FREE Service?
Would you go out of YOUR way to provide a FREE Service?
------------------

For the benefit of mankind. yes, I would. But then I understand not everyone is as pure at heart as I am.

:rolleyes:

Star

[bernie]

Would you go out of YOUR way to provide a FREE Service?Yes, but if I did, I would do it properly or not at all.

[UselessBettor]

No worries. Thanks UB :)

I don't suppose you also store the race types at all?
I might I will have to check. I think I do.

[beton]

I also get frustrated at times - MOST Times.
But you need ask yourself - Is this a FREE Service?
Would you go out of YOUR way to provide a FREE Service?
The most successful business model is to go out of your way to provide a free service. The people that appreciate this then go on to pay for other aspects of the business model. Provide something free without strings attached then you are a good guy. Air your frustrations great but remember that at the end of the day you are getting a great service free of any cost.

[Lord Greystoke]

The most successful business model is to go out of your way to provide a free service. The people that appreciate this then go on to pay for other aspects of the business model. Provide something free without strings attached then you are a good guy.
How very apt, beton.

Looking at the R+S advertising model that converts the freebie friendly stats machine online into $$$, you are correct.

NOthing is 'free' however...
ie they provide the service and in return we give them our eyeballs = online banners flashing at us when we are playing with Neural buttons etc (similar to commercial TV?)

ie the real clients who pay being the corporates for advertising space etc

Looks like I am spending rest of today crafting up a free service for my clients = new, existing (rather than cracking a quaddie or 2)

Ho Hum beton, but this might actually be more fun!

Cheers LG

[bernie]

you are getting a great service free of any cost.A service yes. A great service, I don't think so. Maybe beton, you haven't spent as much time working with Neural systems as others on here.

Granted, some parts of R&S could be classed as a great service, but not all.

.

[Lord Greystoke]

The most successful business model is to go out of your way to provide a free service. The people that appreciate this then go on to pay for other aspects of the business model. Provide something free without strings attached then you are a good guy. Air your frustrations great but remember that at the end of the day you are getting a great service free of any cost.

Every now and then .. a post that stands head and shoulders above the rest and still rings true, years later.

FULL MARKS

Cheers LG

[kiwi]

Agree LG, ventured back to R & S and was pleasantly surprised by information that they are still providing.Plenty of great data if you search for and understand it's usefulness it.

[aferw]

I've been using the R & S for Nz races for 1 1/2 yr now, (except saturdays - loss)

Also using a "bookies" selections since start year,

Just have to suss out the good bets ..

[aferw]

I also use this for the Japan racing (my bets been on another forum for all this time too as well as Nz -no longer there from last week-!!)

Have a look at tonight's (tattsbets only) R8-R12
Had 3 bets, 1 winner $4.60

Overall since sept last year, a fantastic % pot and 34% strike.

Free ideas on the net, use your head to make your own system.

[theoldguy]

been spending some time looking at old threads as per neurals and also worksheets [both on racingandsports site]..posters such as garyf,michaelg,try try again and uselessbettor have put up some top posts about them..just wondering if anyone else have some settings which they use and willing to share?..good punting and [more important] good health to all ..cheers TOG

[jose]

Couldn't make them work myself TOG, but there seems to be merit in the CP, CF and JT columns.
Most winners seem to be in the first few in these columns, sometimes in more than one column.
Never seem to be able to line them up to get it in to profit though.
Good luck anyhow.

[theoldguy]

thanks jose for the reply ..yes those columns you mentioned came up a lot in the posts i came across..a few years back at the "club" [local watering hole]....one of the chaps had a good run[for awhile] in backing top neurals which were 100pts ahead of 2rd pick and also odds-on priced on worksheets ...sure good strike rate but was mostly short-priced favs..plus with those 2 rules only a few bets each month..saturday ,melb and syd. only. came the run of outs then he dropped off....thanks again ..TOG...

[UselessBettor]

I did a lot of analysis with the neural's on R+S.

I would suggest not bothering with them as they are not going to be profitable. There are niche cases where they work but they are hard to find.

Instead look at the ratings sheet which as EST, 12M, BL3, etc. These are much better if you combine them with some form analysis.

I use EST, 12M and BL3. I don't worry about LSR.

What you need to do is look at the ratings for the horse at the same distance, same track condition, same field size, (there are a few more but you can come up with what you like). This gives you a baseline of what you think is the base rating for this horse. it may be the same as EST or completely different. It should also give you a range of ratings that the horse is likely to produce. For example even though EST may be 30 you might find at this distance it usually produces a rating of 28-30 and on good tracks it produces a rating 29-34 and in similar field sizes it produces ratings of 26-29. This gives us a range of the horse producing a rating of 26 - 34. You can do this for all horses and now you have a range of ratings for each horse. You can then compare these and look across the last few races to determine if this horse is going to improve and run at the top of those ratings or whether it might struggle and run in the lower area of the ratings. This should give you a good idea of the chances to dutch to make a profit.

I hope that helps.

[theoldguy]

UB.....very good analysis...thank you ....TOG....

[entropy]

I did a lot of analysis with the neural's on R+S.

I would suggest not bothering with them as they are not going to be profitable. There are niche cases where they work but they are hard to find.

Instead look at the ratings sheet which as EST, 12M, BL3, etc. These are much better if you combine them with some form analysis.

I use EST, 12M and BL3. I don't worry about LSR.

What you need to do is look at the ratings for the horse at the same distance, same track condition, same field size, (there are a few more but you can come up with what you like). This gives you a baseline of what you think is the base rating for this horse. it may be the same as EST or completely different. It should also give you a range of ratings that the horse is likely to produce. For example even though EST may be 30 you might find at this distance it usually produces a rating of 28-30 and on good tracks it produces a rating 29-34 and in similar field sizes it produces ratings of 26-29. This gives us a range of the horse producing a rating of 26 - 34. You can do this for all horses and now you have a range of ratings for each horse. You can then compare these and look across the last few races to determine if this horse is going to improve and run at the top of those ratings or whether it might struggle and run in the lower area of the ratings. This should give you a good idea of the chances to dutch to make a profit.

I hope that helps.

Thanks for an interesting post on the R&S ratings UB!

I know zilch about the R&S ratings other than they are compiled using Don Scott methods.
I hope they found some new good tweaks because, although profitable in earlier days, they went downhill and DS reportedly died broke.

Scanning the site I could not find any records of how the ratings have panned out in practice.
Just a passing comment where they say the results of their Computer Racecards are "astonishing".

Did your analysis show this?

Am I missing out on being astonished?

My recent efforts with my own ratings could also be called "astonishing", astonishingly feeble!

[UselessBettor]

Thanks for an interesting post on the R&S ratings UB!

I know zilch about the R&S ratings other than they are compiled using Don Scott methods.
I hope they found some new good tweaks because, although profitable in earlier days, they went downhill and DS reportedly died broke.

Scanning the site I could not find any records of how the ratings have panned out in practice.
Just a passing comment where they say the results of their Computer Racecards are "astonishing".

Did your analysis show this?

Am I missing out on being astonished?

My recent efforts with my own ratings could also be called "astonishing", astonishingly feeble!

They are based on DS Ratings but its just the initial base rating. Most ratings don't work and most people who follow the ones on R+S will lose money too. You can't just pick up a rating and hope it works. As I said you need to find the ratings this horse produced in similar conditions, similar distances, similar field sizes, etc. That takes work. Most punters won't do that work but anyone who takes the time to do it can use any set of "reasonable" ratings and come up with a derived set of ratings that can then be dutched.

I use lots of sources of data and R+S is one of them. I wouldn't say their ratings are astonishing, but I wouldn't say that about any of the ratings I get. But when I apply my process to the ratings, and then dutch the profitable situations I can easily profit.

[entropy]

They are based on DS Ratings but its just the initial base rating. Most ratings don't work and most people who follow the ones on R+S will lose money too. You can't just pick up a rating and hope it works. As I said you need to find the ratings this horse produced in similar conditions, similar distances, similar field sizes, etc. That takes work. Most punters won't do that work but anyone who takes the time to do it can use any set of "reasonable" ratings and come up with a derived set of ratings that can then be dutched.

I use lots of sources of data and R+S is one of them. I wouldn't say their ratings are astonishing, but I wouldn't say that about any of the ratings I get. But when I apply my process to the ratings, and then dutch the profitable situations I can easily profit.

Thanks UB, your feedback is appreciated and I will now take a closer look at their ratings.
A fair while back I looked at their Neurals but did not find them of any use so on that basis I dissed their ratings, looks like I should have dug a bit deeper.
I will have a look at their T&C's and if allowed will try to download the ratings for a look see.

[Stix]

......

Instead look at the ratings sheet which as EST, 12M, BL3, etc. These are much better if you combine them with some form analysis.

I use EST, 12M and BL3. I don't worry about LSR.

......
I agree UB, those are the ratings I look at as well as the FR rating (Don Scott) in the worksheets to see if there is separation in the values. But horse profile is very important and of course the speed map is possibly the biggest piece of the puzzle - it is for me anyway.

[UselessBettor]

I agree UB, those are the ratings I look at as well as the FR rating (Don Scott) in the worksheets to see if there is separation in the values. But horse profile is very important and of course the speed map is possibly the biggest piece of the puzzle - it is for me anyway.

Stix,

Do you prefer the R+S speedmap or the punters dot com speedmap ?

I don't have enough data on the punters dot com speed map to make any judgements.

[Stix]

Stix,

Do you prefer the R+S speedmap or the punters dot com speedmap ?

I don't have enough data on the punters dot com speed map to make any judgements.

Hey UB, I use racenet speed maps, the break it into Early Speed, Position and Final Speed. I use these to make my own maps, adjusted for barrier, speed inside/outside etc

[michaelg]

I have come to the conclusion that horses favoured in the neural market do very well in the real market. For example, today I had three selections in Bairnsdale R3 (the winner no.1 was a selection) and I made a profit of $54 on the race using $2 Betfair SP bets. I've looked at yesterday and Saturday and favoured horses in my neural market method would have snared almost all the winners, and there were a few good-priced winners. So far today I've bet on 14 races for 12 winners (normally between 3 and 5 selections per race). I'll give it a few more days and if profitable I'll list the selections here.

[kiwi]

MG it depends how you set the neural selections up. If you use BP course distance $ then horse number one wins.
For you to win consistently this setting needs to be consistent.
In my experience this will not always be the case.

[michaelg]

Kiwi, I agree. However I think the top part of the neural market tends to agree with the real market while the bottom half can be all over the place. This is what I'll be testing with my settings.

[UselessBettor]

Don't trust back tested results ie. after ther race.

They tend to update when the results come in adn the order changes to mysteriously have the winner at the top (or near enough). only test on races that have not yet run.

[theoldguy]

UB spot on i have noticed that also ..

[kiwi]

Good advice UB.

[kiwi]

UB,I did the R&S neural settings I had above for Ipswich on wednesday. Thursday morning I checked them. The results were the same.
It appears the R&S neurals don't fluctuate next day after a meeting is completed.:)

[evajb001]

kiwi, I can confirm as UB has said that the NR change post-race. Sometimes they do it the following day, sometimes they do it that night. I've found this out recently with some of my recording, thought it was all good because I was doing it same-night and they appeared to only change the following day but then found some more anomalies.

Would need to record pre-race and then take out scratchings afterwards if you want to record neurals.

[UselessBettor]

its a very trusting man who looks at informnation after a race to assess if it was worthy of using.

All my data is recorded pre-race. I never want to trust data after the race.

Its not just R+S that does this. For instance some of the figures at punters form guide does the exact same thing. It updates after the race and is useless for post race analysis.

But for those who are willing to record the information pre race, look through it and find those gems there is a lot of money to be made.