My Attempt at it

[UselessBettor]

With all this talk on fulltime punting I thought I would give it a theoretical go if I had a big enough bank.

These are my real selections that I am betting but just not at the levels which would need to go fulltime. I have every confidence I could place the same bets at the required level with a larger bank without any hassle. My methods are high turnover with smallish bets.

There will be limited value in this thread for others as I will not post my selections as they could be backfitted to determine my methods. I will be using a combination of betting and laying selections. I will post my profit / loss on a theorectical bank and will also take money out for living costs.

I think I will need a bank of 40K to ensure I am safe with my bet size. This is 10 times what I think my maximum draw down could be.

I'll start by putting up todays results.

Each day I will take out a wage. It will be $200 per day which is approximately 73K. My profit on starting bank will hopefully be large enough to cover this as I will turn it over many times. My Profit on turnover however will be extremely small.

Day 1 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,000
Profit for the day : $590.47
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $40,390.47

So far so good.

[moeee]

There will be limited value in this thread for others as I will not post my selections.
I'll start by putting up todays results.

Why bother?

[UselessBettor]

Why bother?
Accountability to myself.
Consistency.
Work Ethic.

All things you would need as a professional punter.

[Lord Greystoke]

I get it UB.

A is for Accountability.
B is for Blood_ hard work
C is for Consistency

The approach looks sound and commendable,
Especially given that you put it out there for all to see.


LG

[moeee]

Enjoy!!

[UselessBettor]

I got a small profit out of Ireland and the UK last night.

Day 1 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,390.47
Profit for the day : $49.51
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $40439.98

[UselessBettor]

Bad day today with a number of losers. It should be expected after a good day yesterday.


Day 2 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,439.98
Profit for the day : $(481.78) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $39758.20


I've got a few going around tonight so hopefully I wake up in the morning to a nice profit.

[UselessBettor]

Day 2 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,758.20
Profit for the day : $103.23
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $39,861.43


A nice little profit to wake to over night. I already take betfair commission out of the above at the rate of 6.5%. I wonder how much the premium charge would effect me eventually. Something for me to keep in mind (although it would be a long time till I bet at this level).

I just realised I have taken out the UK commission incorrectly at 6.5% and it should only be 5%.

[UselessBettor]

Day 2 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,758.20
Profit for the day : $103.23
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $39,861.43


I just realised I have taken out the UK commission incorrectly at 6.5% and it should only be 5%.

Day 2 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,861.43
Adjustment for Commission miscalculation : +3.44
Closing Bank: $39,864.87

[UselessBettor]

Day 3 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,864.87
Profit for the day : $1033.41
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $40698.28

It was a good day today with it being a Tuesday and I only had bets on at 2 meetings. Almost all of the bets got up and the lays ran poorly.

Interesting to me is I have pulled out a wage of $600 so far and the bank is still higher then the starting bank.

Obviously the forum curse is yet to hit me but Im sure its on its way, I've got a few bets in the UK and IRE tonight so hopefully I'll wake up to a higher bank again tommorrow.

[UselessBettor]

Here are a list of my POSSIBLE lays tonight. Not all will be layed, and those that are layed will be layed for varying amounts, but I've posted them to show my selections are made before the races.

I have not included the list of horses which I will also be betting as I don't want to give away too much.

Ballinrobe, 5:45, Sughera
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Eja Eja
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Golan Heights
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Lady Lyrath
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Tamujin
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Painted Fingers
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Vasoni
Ballinrobe, 7:50, Theatre Gold
Ballinrobe, 7:50, In The Haven
Ballinrobe, 7:50, Georgie
Ballinrobe, 7:50, Split Ear
Ballinrobe, 8:20, Ms Kiltiernan
Ballinrobe, 8:20,Pasou
Ballinrobe, 8:20,Tawrific Laois
Ballinrobe, 8:20,Sir Ladyswell
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Annie Money
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Royal Chukka
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Billybhoy
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Mill Gale
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Gerbera
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Bracken House
Beverley, 04:00,So Cheeky
Beverley, 04:00,More Bottle
Beverley, 05:00,Queen´s Princess
Beverley, 05:30,Never In
Brighton,03:15,Microlight
Brighton,03:15,Toms River Tess
Brighton,03:45,Litotes
Brighton,04:45,Ben Croy
Brighton,05:15,The Wonga Coup
Brighton,05:15,Gay Gallivanter
Brighton,05:15,Johnny Splash
Brighton,05:15,Waspy
Newtot Abbot,07:05,Sieglinde
Newbury,08:00,Royale Ransom
Newbury,08:00,Netley Marsh
Newbury,08:35,Junior Diary
Newbury,09:05,Adaeze

[UselessBettor]

Sorry but I didn't get a chance to psot this morning as I was off to work early.
Here are the results from the UK. A sensational night.

Day 3 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,698.28
Profit for the day : $467.76
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $41,166.04

[moeee]

The more you win the more I lose :(

How come you not deducting $200 every day no more?

[UselessBettor]

The more you win the more I lose :(

How come you not deducting $200 every day no more?
I deduct on the AUS Market Update (coming through in the next few mins). I was just checking a selection which cost me a bit. Trying to see if I could work out if I could have covered it with a new filter or anything that makes sense, but its probably just one of those things.

Plus I think I am just having a lucky streak. It will surely fall under the forum curse soon enough.

[UselessBettor]

Day 4 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $41,166.04
Profit for the day : $755.34
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $41,721.38

I hit a winner which cost me approx $1200 in the profits today. It was modestly priced at $25 on betfair. It was Gawler Race 2 : 8 The Wild Thing. He was a consistently poor performing horse and actually got worse as the distance increased. It was his first attempt over 2000m. Perhaps he liked the ground more then the other horses (soft). Apart from that I have no clue why it performed so well.

Still I guess I can't complain as while that winner reduced an awsome day into a great day I still made over $700 on the day. Remember I don't bet at these levels. I made $7.58 today over the same selections :)

I bet only at Canterbury, Gawler and Caulfield today. The resulting profits of each were:

Caulfield: $765.43
Canterbury : $830.99
Gawler : -841.08(LOSS)

I'll give it a couple of weeks then look at my state by state profit. Maybe SA is costing me a lot, but I have not looked into it yet.

Anyway it was a good day so can't complain.

[UselessBettor]

Day 4 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $41,721.38
Profit for the day : $719.02
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $42,440.4

A good night last night. If this keeps up I will need to seriously consider upping my bet size.

[UselessBettor]

Day 5 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $42,440.40
Profit for the day : $1,476.33
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $43,716.73


Another great day today.

[moeee]

Another great day today.
Perhaps it is time to change your name to AwesomeBettor.

[UselessBettor]

Perhaps it is time to change your name to AwesomeBettor.
lol It might seem like that at the moment but give it another week and I'll probably be floundering in a huge loss. Winning streaks come and go. I just hope I don't give it all back.

[moeee]

yeah - well I been losing Big Time past 2 weeks , but I think the tide has finally turned.
The New Year starts soon and I am gonna try winning like you are.

[UselessBettor]

Moeee,

Here are some lays for tonight. Some might be long, I'll let you work out how you like to stake them. This is just one of the meetings for tonight.

<table border="0" rules="NONE" cellSpacing="0" frame="VOID" cols="3"> <colgroup><col width="86"><col width="86"><col width="173"></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td height="17" width="86" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td width="86" align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.118055555555556">02:50:00</td> <td width="173" align="LEFT">Green Warrior</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="18" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.118055555555556">02:50:00</td> <td align="LEFT">Rasteaul</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="17" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.138888888888889">03:20:00</td> <td align="LEFT">Love Grows Wild </td> </tr> <tr> <td height="17" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.159722222222222">03:50:00</td> <td align="LEFT">Canning Vale</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="17" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.180555555555556">04:20:00</td> <td align="LEFT">Tiberius Claudius</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="18" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.180555555555556">04:20:00</td> <td align="LEFT">Kattys Secret</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="18" align="LEFT">Yarmouth</td> <td align="RIGHT" SDNUM="3081;0;HH:MM:SS" SDVAL="0.180555555555556">04:20:00</td> <td align="LEFT">Ellies Image</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[moeee]

Moeee,

Here are some lays for tonight.
Sorry
I have confused you.
When I said I was gonna win like you are.
I didn't mean win like how you are doing it.
I just meant I'm gonna win.

[UselessBettor]

Sorry
I have confused you.
When I said I was gonna win like you are.
I didn't mean win like how you are doing it.
I just meant I'm gonna win.
Moeee,

They all ran as expected last night with none of those lays getting up. All my other bets did well too so overall another good night in the UK. I'll update the figures later as alas I need to run off to work.

[UselessBettor]

Here is the UK result for last night

Day 5 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $43,716.73
Profit for the day : $175.20
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $43891.93

A few abandoned races in the UK last night and tonight. Overall a successful night. I didn't have a good day in Aus though, I post those results later tonight.

[UselessBettor]

Day 6 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $43,891.93
Profit for the day : $-18.94 (LOSS)
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $43,672.99


This doesn't looks like such a bad day when you look at the final result. But the problem was Geelong. It contributed a loss of $973.28. Goulburn pulled it all back though. So as you can see I am a little dissappointed in Geelongs result.

I've got a few tonight so hopefully I can keep the momentum going forward.

[garyf]

HI U.B.


If it's any consolation i never have bet on dirt tracks.

Geelong Synthetic.
Sunshine Coast Cushion.
Toowoomba Cushion.
Canberra Acton but i don't bet in Canberra anyway.

There are some dirt tracks in Country Adelaide as well,
I have seen them watching Sky Channel again that,
Doesn't affect me as i don't bet in Adelaide.

So for me it's a grass surface or nothing.

There may be others around Cntry N.S.W. not mentioned.
I didn't make this rule up straight away as when these surfaces,
Were introduced i had to wait till i gathered sufficient data on them,
As my punting nowadays is based on betting on certain tracks only.

When sufficient data was acquired the results were less than stunning,
I could have introduced filters outside of what i use now but decided against.

This is as i have found over an eternity, some tracks continue,
To produce winners mainly in the betting where others don't.

Also where do my top 1-2-3-4 ratings produce as well.

So i share your pain in being gelded at Geelong.
(Maybe not to quite that extent)

Cheers.

[UselessBettor]

Thanks gary.

I'll keep that in mind and make sure I watch out for those sort of tracks.

[UselessBettor]

Here are a couple of tips for those who want something to bet tonight.

Chester 18:15 Savanna Mala
Musselburgh 16:55 Safe House

I don't mind giving away a tip here and there.

[UselessBettor]

Chester 18:15 Savanna Mala
Musselburgh 16:55 Safe House


Both these tips won.

[UselessBettor]

Another UK profit over night.

Day 6 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $43,672.99
Profit for the day : $361.62
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $44,034.61

The nights profit covered the small loss and the wage for the day from the AUS punting and added a little bit extra to the bank. Saturdays have been particularly kind to me on Aus racing so Im hoping for another good one today. I think its mainly due to the better racing and its more obvious why a horse might be racing. Saturday will also be my wrap up for my first week on following this religiously.

[UselessBettor]

Its been a wild ride today and I'll update results at the end of the Belmont races.

For those interested here are some to lay at Belmont in the next couple:

Belmont Race 7 Numbers 3,5,6,8,10,13,16
Belmont Race 8 Numbers 3,4,6,9,12,14,15,17,18

[UselessBettor]

Day 7 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,034.61
Profit for the day : $236.84
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $44,071.45

What a wild ride today ended up being. At one point I was up over 2000 and at another point I was down 2000. I got hit by a few longer shots that got up today in the lays which included Belmont race 8 and Sunshine Coast Race 8. Still most of my bets got up which helped over the day.

At the end of the UK tonight it will be the end of the first week and unless something major happens and I have the worst night ever I should finish this week with a profit.

[UselessBettor]

For those who want something to watch go around tonight. These should win or come very close.

Newmarket 14:00:00 Michelangelo
Chester 14:10:00 Annunciation
Newmarket 15:00:00 Dandino
Windsor 16:00:00 Coupe de Ville
Lingfield 18:20:00 Royal Aspiration

[UselessBettor]

I'll update UK results when I get a chance. I did not bet today. I was sick throwing up.

[moeee]

I did not bet today. I was sick throwing up.
Yeah.
Its called withdrawal syndrome.
Happens to me too when I don't have a daily wager.

[moeee]

I'll update UK results when I get a chance. I did not bet today. I was sick throwing up.
Jeeze!! - Those UK results musta turned out Real BAD!!

Seriously though , It's funny that here you are having a winning day every day for a week , and you feel unwell and throw up.
That usually happens to me after a week of LOSING Days :(

[UselessBettor]

Thanks for your concern moeee.

I was sick in bed and unable to use the computer for quite a few days. I'm getting back into it today hopefully. But not sure yet. I may just start it up again tommorrow. I'll leave off the UK for a while as I am not up to the extra analysis required for those selections.

Being sick brought up an interesting point though. If you were a professional punter and your sick for a week then you basically have no turnover(and profit) for that week.

[moeee]

Sick affects everyone not just Punters.
You don't go to work you don't get paid.
Unless you have some sort of agreement to allow for it.

[UselessBettor]

Sick affects everyone not just Punters.
You don't go to work you don't get paid.
Unless you have some sort of agreement to allow for it.
Hmmm In most jobs you get sick leave. I still got paid even though I wasn't there.

[moeee]

In most jobs you get sick leave.
That would be the "unless you have some sort of agreement to allow for it."
Self employed and casuals need look elsewhere.

[UselessBettor]

Well time to resume this and I did some betting today. I have taken out the wage for all 8 days since the last update.

I might have a bet or 2 in the last few at toowoomba but I will need to wait and see.

I held a position in 41 races today and made a profit in 35 of them.

Day 14 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,071.45
Profit for the day : $2032
Wage Deducation : $1600
Closing Bank: $44,503.45

I'll update this number later if I have anymore bets at Toowoomba.

[UselessBettor]

Updated now that toowoomba has finished.

Day 14 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,071.45
Profit for the day : $2056
Wage Deducation : $1600
Closing Bank: $44,527.45

I held a position in 43 races today and made a profit in 37 of them.

[UselessBettor]

I worked back through the last week to see what would have happened during that time. It looks like I would have lost abot 4000 during the week. So it was a good week to be sick.

[UselessBettor]

Day 15 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,527
Profit for the day : $2540
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46,867

I held a position in 21 races today and made a profit in 19 of them. I am purely benefiting from the rebound from the poor result mid week when I didn't bet becasue I was sick.

[UselessBettor]

Day 16 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46,867
Profit for the day : $936
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $47,603

I held a position in 17 races today and made a profit in 16 of them.

[UselessBettor]

<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" SIZE="1">
Day 17 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $47,603
Profit for the day : $1976
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $49379

I held a position in 21 races today and made a profit in 21 of them.

The perfect day.

[moeee]

YOU ARE SIMPLY GOD!!!

[UselessBettor]

YOU ARE SIMPLY GOD!!!
Moeee,

If you let me know your email address I'll quickly add you to my list and send you every selection before every race.

I think its more a lucky run still. And there was a period of loss of 4K when I was sick.

[moeee]

And there was a period of loss of 4K when I was sick.
Yet another one of your Miracles!!

[Lord Greystoke]

Moeee,

If you let me know your email address I'll quickly add you to my list and send you every selection before every race.

I think its more a lucky run still. And there was a period of loss of 4K when I was sick.

Hi UB
If you are winning consistently AND paying yourself a wage,
Something tells me you are well beyond luck !

Any chance you could add me to your email list ?

Cheers LG

[moeee]

Hi UB

Any chance you could add me to your email list ?

Cheers LG
Give him my spot!!

[UselessBettor]

Hi UB
If you are winning consistently AND paying yourself a wage,
Something tells me you are well beyond luck !

Any chance you could add me to your email list ?

Cheers LG
Whats your email and I'll add you in to the list. You will get quite a few a day as I am in most races and it sends out an email per race.

[Lord Greystoke]

Ta mate.. open up the big gate!

LORDGREYSTOKE3RD

@

GMAIL.COM

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

I occassionally have a bet overnight but most of them should start tommorrow.

They will be a mixture of Bets and Lays. I haven't put my staking which varies for each selection but it should give you a lot to watch.

[UselessBettor]

You should already have an email for tonight.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks UB - confirm receipt.

Cheers LG

[lomaca]

Give him my spot!!A man after my own heart.
Good on you moeee.
Cheers

[Lord Greystoke]

How so?

LG

[UselessBettor]

Of course the day I add people to the email its a shocker :)

Most damage was done in 1 race. I'll wait till the end of Belmont and post the results.

[UselessBettor]

I was bound to have an unhappy day eventually. Took a massive beating on one race based on the way I stake. Without that 1 race I would have been showing a very nice profit. High risk = high reward sometimes and othertimes it just ends in tears.

Day 18 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $49,379
Profit for the day : $(2448) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46,731

I held a position in 29 races today and made a profit in 24 of them. One of those losing positions contributing a loss of $3556.

Overall position still looks good espeically considering $3600 has been removed from the closing bank so far for wages.

[Lord Greystoke]

Your prognosis is sound UB

Keep up your fine work (and also the Betting races!)

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

There are a few to go at Pinjarra but its unlikely I'll have many/any bets in them. So Ill update this now and provide an update later if needed.

A good day for sure and glad after yesterdays loss. Almost covered the whole loss back today.

Day 19 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46,371
Profit for the day : $2120
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $48,291

I held a position in 20 races today and made a profit in 18 of them. The two losing races were both small at $40 each.

Another good day tommorrow and I could hit $10,000 profit after wages are taken out. I am excited about that.

[UselessBettor]

Day 20 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $48,291
Profit for the day : $1360
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $49451

I held a position in 30 races today and made a profit in 29 of them.

Didn't quite make the $50,000 today but I was close. I hope I can hit it tommorrow.

[UselessBettor]

Day 21 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $49,451
Profit for the day : $(56) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $49195

I held a position in 40 races today and made a profit in 34 of them.

Overall I was happy to be close to break even today as I was down early and spent most of the day recovering.

[Lord Greystoke]

Evening UB

Can I ask - if you are not laying/backing everything that comes thru that feed,
How to cherry pick amongst them?

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Evening UB

Can I ask - if you are not laying/backing everything that comes thru that feed,
How to cherry pick amongst them?

Cheers LGLord Greystoke,

If the tip says lay then I am laying it, if it says bet then I am betting it. I have something on every single one of those selections. The emails are sent out once the bets are placed. The difference is how much I am laying / betting on each selection. I run quite a few systems and they determine how much liability I will have on each selection. Also the price can play a part in determining how I will lay it. I use a combination of laying to a liability and laying straight out.

For instance of the 3 lays who lost today, 2 were layed to a liability and the other was layed straight out. I think in part I am successful because I know when to stake a certain way. Rest assured I do not use any progressive staking at all. Its all flat stakes (but differing liabilties if that makes sense).

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks for detail - the stream of selections in your emails are actually your professional punting experience then, coming thru in real-time.

It's a real eye opener and I thank you for including me .

How are you holding up on the Bet side?

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Thanks for detail - the stream of selections in your emails are actually your professional punting experience then, coming thru in real-time.

It's a real eye opener and I thank you for including me .

How are you holding up on the Bet side?

Cheers LG
Yes its my real time betting that is getting emailed out.

The bets are just under break even this week (loss of 2.25 units) but overall are showing over a 320 units of profit over the time I have been betting them.

As far as lays I am up the equivalent of 10.8% ROI since starting them. I turn over a lot of selections with the lays and aim to make about 0.1% off the liability I am taking on each selection over time. For instance if I was to lay 100 selections across the day (I did more then 100 selections today) and I layed all of them to a liability of $1000 then I would expect to return 100*1000*0.001 = $100 profit off the $100,000 liability. Of course 100 selections is not enough to even out the randomness of results which can go against you but its a rough guide of what I try to aim for each day. Therefore hopefully over time increasing the turnover should increase my ROI.

By the way I don't lay all the selections to the same liability :)

I'll turn on units tommorrow so you can see the differences in staking that I use for a couple of days.

[Lord Greystoke]

Ta mate. It's been a fascinating 'ride' to date.


Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

I'll turn on units tommorrow so you can see the differences in staking that I use for a couple of days.I have added the staking size into it.
A stake of 0.10 means 0.1% of the bank.
A stake of 0.50 means 0.5% of the bank.
A stake of 2 means 2% of the bank.
A stake of 5 means 5%, etc.

For example if you have a bank size of $40,000 and you had a 0.10 stake for a lay then you would lay the $40 on the selection. If the selection was $100 then this would be a liability of $40*$100 -$40 = $3960 if the selection goes against you. I hope that makes sense.

[UselessBettor]

Sorry had an issue with the emails and staking. I think I have fixed it up now.

[UselessBettor]

A Shocker today for sure with Sandown Race 5 going against me.

I have done some analysis and I make the majority of my profit in Races 1-4 of each meeting. I'll change up my rules based on this to only include races 1-4 from tommorrow for certain selections. I'll put up the results later.

[UselessBettor]

<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" SIZE="1">

Day 22 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $49,195
Profit for the day : $(3916) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $45079

I held a position in 23 races today and made a profit in 20 of them. Sandown Race 5 was very costly with multiple systems laying the longshot.

Interestingly had I only taken positions in the first 4 races of each meeting I would have shown a profit of $828

From tommorrow I am restricting the positions to races 1-4.

[UselessBettor]

It was a good day today, as I stopped after the 4th race at each meeting, but I can't update the days figures till betfair comes back online.

Hopefully that will be soon.

[Lord Greystoke]

That is good news UB - looks like you might stick to this strategy?

LG

[UselessBettor]

Day 22 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $45079
Profit for the day : $1168
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46047

I held a position in 12 races today and made a profit in 11 of them.


LG I will be sticking to first 4 races only for now on for certain types of positions.

[Lord Greystoke]

Things on the up UB?

Am wondering whether you will also apply similar strategy to BET side ie 1st 4 races.

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Things on the up UB?

Am wondering whether you will also apply similar strategy to BET side ie 1st 4 races.

Cheers LG
I'll be betting all races for the BET posiotions although the rules for most of the BET positions usually have most of them in the first 4 races anyway. Its rare to get many bets in the later races at all.

I'll also be running a few LAY positions outside of the first 4 races but these will be few and far between.

Any day there is a good profit I am happy.

I have also thought about the stop at a winner because based on this I would have not had a losing day in over 2 months but the winnings are then limited to what ever you win in that first race which can be low sometimes. Still its another angle to look at that may be used at some stage if I find it works out to be more profitable. At this stage though its a long way behind as a staking strategy.

[UselessBettor]

Day 23 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46047
Profit for the day : $(108) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $45739

I held a position in 10 races today and made a profit in 8 of them.

Didn't do too bad considering I made a loss on Bathurst Race 1 Number 14. Just showing a small loss. If I had stopped as soon as I showed a profit I again would have won the first race and been up $36. The problem with this is I would not cover the $200 a day unless I was using a higher stake of my bank.

Could I go till I hit $200 ... maybe but then I would still have days like today where I make a loss. I'll leave it at the first 4 races for a while and make sure its stats continue to go as predicted. A small loss every so often is easy to handle when you have $1K days along side them.

[UselessBettor]

Day 24 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $45739
Profit for the day : $1032
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $46571

I held a position in 16 races today and made a profit in 15 of them.

I may yet have a few more bets today but if I do I will update again.
On my way back to 50K. Considering I have pulled out $4800 for wages I would have easily been there had I not been paying myself.

[Mark]

Real money??

If not..............waste of time IMO.
None of the pressures of being behind, the do I don't I keep going, etc

[UselessBettor]

Real money??

If not..............waste of time IMO.
None of the pressures of being behind, the do I don't I keep going, etc
There is real money going on all selections but not at the same level. It will eventually get there and the bet sizes are growing.

[Mark]

Excellent stuff UB.

[UselessBettor]

Day 25 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $46571
Profit for the day : $1796
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $48167

I held a position in 19 races today and made a profit in 17 of them. Both losing markets were only a loss of $40.

Keeping to the first 4 races has again worked today. The account is moving in the right direction again. If I have another good day tomorrow then there is a chance of hitting the 50K mark over the weekend.

A few races left to go today. I'll update the stats if any bes are placed.

[The Ocho]

Well done UB. Going great guns. :)

[UselessBettor]

Thanks Ocho and Mark for the words of encouragement.

Day 26 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $48167
Profit for the day : $580
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $48547

I held a position in 20 races today and made a profit in 15 of them.

A couple of losing races today but they didn't do too much damage. Our biggest losses were in Canberra Race 4 and Ballina Race 2.

Total Wages paid so far is $5200 which is not bad for less than a months pay.

[UselessBettor]

Day 27 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $48547
Profit for the day : $28
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $48375

I held a position in 32 races today and made a profit in 26 of them.
Most of the damage was done in the photo finish at Belmont Race 2. I was showing a very nice profit before 2pm today and then I went 10 races for a profit in only 5 of them. The combined loss over those 10 races after 2pm was $1976.

[UselessBettor]

I didn't get a chance to update so this is 2 days worth:


<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Day 28/29 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $48375
Profit for the day : $(2984) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $400
Closing Bank: $44991

I held a position in 31 races today and made a profit in 26 of them.

We start the slow process of building up towards $50K again. Before taking the losses I was showing a new high for the bank and that is a positive thing to take out of the last couple of days. The negative is that a few bad races can really hurt.

An analysis of the data I have shows that generally its like this movement, lots of little gains then a large loss that takes back 80-90% of those gains. Then every so often you get the good week with no losers and the bank shoots up to a new level. I'll perservere for a lot longer.

On another note I am close to having a UK method ready for testing. This means it has passed my paper trial and it ready for real money testing.

I still need to automate these selections but I should have them ready very soon, maybe even tonight. One thing I have found is the UK market is much better at giving the right odds to a horse and the angles are a lot harder to find, but they are still there but fewer horses are mispriced.

<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

[UselessBettor]

For those interested I'll be laying the following tonight. I have not yet checked prices or scratchings.

<table><tbody><tr><td>Ayr</td><td>3:05</td><td>Shunkawakhan</td></tr><tr><td>Ayr</td><td>3:05</td><td>Captain Baldwin</td></tr><tr><td>Ayr</td><td>3:35</td><td>Viking Dancer</td></tr><tr><td>Ayr</td><td>5:45</td><td>Great Nicanor</td></tr><tr><td>Ballinrobe (IRE)</td><td>6:20</td><td>Surf's Up</td></tr><tr><td>Beverley</td><td>8:30</td><td>Hawkino</td></tr><tr><td>Beverley</td><td>8:30</td><td>Willy McBay</td></tr><tr><td>Beverley</td><td>9:00</td><td>Major Muscari</td></tr><tr><td>Beverley</td><td>9:00</td><td>Lady Kildare</td></tr><tr><td>Cartmel</td><td>3:25</td><td>How's D Strawboss</td></tr><tr><td>Cartmel</td><td>3:55</td><td>Peak Seasons</td></tr><tr><td>Southwell (AW)</td><td>4:20</td><td>One Bid Too Many</td></tr><tr><td>Southwell (AW)</td><td>4:55</td><td>Beachwood Bay</td></tr><tr><td>Southwell (AW)</td><td>4:55</td><td>Amber Moon</td></tr><tr><td>Windsor</td><td>6:40</td><td>Into The Wind</td></tr></tbody></table>

[UselessBettor]

Day 30 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44991
Profit for the day : $248
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $45039

I held a position in 13 races today and made a profit in 11 of them.

Thats 30 days of testing and in that time I have made :

$6000 in wages
$5039 in profit

A total of $11,039 or a little over 27.5% in one month. I will bank the $5039 profit now and restart the next 30 days with a new bank of $40K. I am doing this to show myself over any 30 days I should be able to make a profit. Although I will be away soon for about 10 days on a trip paid for partly from the winnings here (although a smaller amount).

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi UB,
This is the closest thing I have seen here to a system which replaces a daily wage and/or generates a sustained run of profits UB. I'm sure its happening elsewhere, just not fully disclosed like yours.

Top effort mate.

LG

PS incidentally... what level of confidence would you say you would have in laying 20-30-40% of the field with longer term success on carefully selected races - I appreciate that POT would be heavily down but do you think you could carve out a positive return over say a month or does 1 or 2 accidents kill one's chances. I ask bc i have little = no idea on the laying strategy per se?

[UselessBettor]

PS incidentally... what level of confidence would you say you would have in laying 20-30-40% of the field with longer term success on carefully selected races - I appreciate that POT would be heavily down but do you think you could carve out a positive return over say a month or does 1 or 2 accidents kill one's chances. I ask bc i have little = no idea on the laying strategy per se?
It depends on what your laying and how your laying. if your laying 40% of the market and break even on three of those, lose a small amount on the fav, and make a lot when they all lose then you might be able to do it.

Each person needs to find the method that suits them. For example Mark likes to create a book and heavily focuses on the shorter end of the market for laying, whereas I like the longer end of the market becuase I like the consistency. Doing your own research and feeling comfortable with the method is the key.