False Favourites & Over Bet horses

[Star]

This is a serious question that might throw up some strange answers. I am looking for some filters to smoke out the false favourites. You know the ones that are overbet.

To me, if a horse or horses are overbet then their is a good possibility that others might be better value providing the information the crowd is going with is not really factual and it is just the mob mentality taking over.

What are some of the reason a false favourite is born. If we can isolate a few of the reasons maybe that might just give us another angle to look at.

[TheSchmile]

A good place to start when trying to secure value is to look at the favourite and ask:
1/ Has it won at the distance and if not is it bred to run this distance?
2/ Does it like today's track conditions - Good, dead, slow etc
3/ Is it trained by a quality trainer with a decent Jock on top.
4/ Win strike >20%

If the answer is no to at least 3 from 4 of the points then it's worth looking at the remaining horses in the race.

If the answer is YES, to these questions, then you have to calculate a minimum acceptable price. If this is too daunting there are many services that frame markets for you at a cost.

Hi Star,

Here's my answer from your 'Looking for Value' thread.

The Schmile

[Lord Greystoke]

Moments of greatness, TS.

Again.

LG

[garyf]

I keep hearing on other posts about favoriteS,
And ratings etc that are continually "OVERBET".

Can somebody please post these stats so that i may use them?.

To me there are simply 2 ways to win on the punt.
1- Don't do what everyone else does.
2- Do what everybody else does "BUT DO IT BETTER"

For my own i am with nos-2 but that's just me.

Looking forward to the overbet stats for Favorites,
And Ratings so i can improve my strike rate, lower my bank drawdown,
Which will mean bottom line "MORE MONEY".

Any nos of stats will be fine.

Cheers.

[garyf]

Doesn't matter i have found a book i purchased years ago with,
That information what i don't have are the ratings that are overbet.

Cheers.

[garyf]

Will post an overbet Favorite stat..

My data although a couple of years old gave me this

Starting price Fav
s/rate=31%
av/div=$2.8.
L.O.T=-12.3%
Some years are worse some are better i have qouted,
The averages here.

Using the above scenario i will list an overbet stat

tab=1.
out-14842
wins-4913.
s/rate-33%
av-div-$2.54.
L.O.T -16%.
Have this Favorites stat angle,
Covered i need the ratings be they weight or speed,
That are mentioned here and overbet please.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Filter out the favs who are backmarkers in the 1000 - 1100 races.

One can almost say in any race really.On pace runners have a clear advantage as they are less likely to be checked or blocked for a run.
Cheers
darky

[UselessBettor]

This is a serious question that might throw up some strange answers. I am looking for some filters to smoke out the false favourites. You know the ones that are overbet.

To me, if a horse or horses are overbet then their is a good possibility that others might be better value providing the information the crowd is going with is not really factual and it is just the mob mentality taking over.

What are some of the reason a false favourite is born. If we can isolate a few of the reasons maybe that might just give us another angle to look at.
Have you ever thought about favs which might be underbet ? Why would you want to do this you may ask. Because if your betting in the $5+ range most people are going to lose at least 8 out of every 10 races. that is going to hit your confidence levels and your nerves won't hold up.

I propose you look at finding a way of having at least a 40%+ strike rate. This might be through laying or betting. I have found many of my systems that bet on selections actually work better in the under $5 range then anywhere else. The market will be close to correct on a horses chances. If they compeltely disagree with one of my selections then I don't bet it. I got it wrong. Not the 10,000 other people having a bet.

[Star]

Have you ever thought about favs which might be underbet ? Why would you want to do this you may ask. Because if your betting in the $5+ range most people are going to lose at least 8 out of every 10 races. that is going to hit your confidence levels and your nerves won't hold up.

I propose you look at finding a way of having at least a 40%+ strike rate. This might be through laying or betting. I have found many of my systems that bet on selections actually work better in the under $5 range then anywhere else. The market will be close to correct on a horses chances. If they compeltely disagree with one of my selections then I don't bet it. I got it wrong. Not the 10,000 other people having a bet.------------
UB.

That is a very thought provoking post. At the moment I think my system hovers between that and the longer priced one. I was adjusting the rules to increase the price because initially I was getting a lot of short priced ones up but then started to look for more value.

In the last two days I have altered the qualifiers in favor of the middle ground. As a result I have had a few winners namely:


Three Selections for today


Caulfield R1 No 4 Storm Burst : Won paid $3.50

Caulfield R7 No 5 Urban Explorer : Won paid $ 4.80

Caulfield R8 No 4 Bel Sir : Lost was paying about $8.50.


You have given me some more to think about. Chasing value might just be different to chasing big prices.

Thanks.

Star

I will see if I can tighten up the prices

[beton]

Quick take on Betfair. When you have the Metro meets all the country tracks are posting favs at $4 +. The betters are spoilt for choice and won't come in. There has to be value amongst them.

[mattio]

You have given me some more to think about. Chasing value might just be different to chasing big prices.
Having read some of your recent posts I have to say that this statement alone will vastly improve your success! I run about 10 systems and in the last 6 months my average winner paid less than $3 but my strike rate was over 50% which is great because I hate long runs of outs which is what you get chasing big priced winners. You can definitely find value at the pointy end of the market but you need to be selective and patient - 2 things that keep me from being able to do this fulltime.....but I am working on it :)

Cheers,

Mat.

[Star]

Having read some of your recent posts I have to say that this statement alone will vastly improve your success! I run about 10 systems and in the last 6 months my average winner paid less than $3 but my strike rate was over 50% which is great because I hate long runs of outs which is what you get chasing big priced winners. You can definitely find value at the pointy end of the market but you need to be selective and patient - 2 things that keep me from being able to do this fulltime.....but I am working on it :)

Cheers,

Mat.
Mat.

You sound just like the advice U.B. gave. With you having10 Systems do you not find that one or a few can canabalise the others.

Eg If you are betting short prices averaging $3 like you say but you have 10 systems how often do you get a clash in a race. And when you do, would you not find with the short prices that your outlay will be greater then the return on that race.

I asked a similar question in another post about something similar which referred to SR but really it might apply egually here.

When you say you get a 50% SR is that per race or total number of selections. In other words does your 50% get help from maybe having more then one horse in a race but in different systems and then that race only counts as one, even though you have two chances.

I am confused!

Star

[garyf]

Because if your betting in the $5+ range most people are going to lose at least 8 out of every 10 races. that is going to hit your confidence levels and your nerves won't hold up.

I have found many of my systems that bet on selections actually work better in the under $5 range then anywhere else. The market will be close to correct on a horses chances. If they compeltely disagree with one of my selections then I don't bet it. I got it wrong. Not the 10,000 other people having a bet.Couldn't have worded it better myself,
Agree 100% with every word.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Star]

Couldn't have worded it better myself,
Agree 100% with every word.

Cheers.
Garyf.
-
Thanks to all.

Napoleon Hill will be very pleased that a group of like minded individuals are applying the concepts he outlined on Page 190 Step 9 : THE POWER OF THE MASTER MIND in his classic book THINK and GROW RICH.

I am sure he was not thinking about beating the horses, but about fortune and life in general and being the success you want to be. So, I guess, we all fit in there somewhere.

It was first published in 1937 and after many reprints still ranks as a master piece. Many, if not all, of the Later Day Saints of Self development use all the principles he devised, only they have changed the wording, but not the message.

Star

[mattio]

Mat.

You sound just like the advice U.B. gave. With you having10 Systems do you not find that one or a few can canabalise the others.

Eg If you are betting short prices averaging $3 like you say but you have 10 systems how often do you get a clash in a race. And when you do, would you not find with the short prices that your outlay will be greater then the return on that race.

I asked a similar question in another post about something similar which referred to SR but really it might apply egually here.

When you say you get a 50% SR is that per race or total number of selections. In other words does your 50% get help from maybe having more then one horse in a race but in different systems and then that race only counts as one, even though you have two chances.

I am confused!

StarSorry to confuse you Star, no the systems do not canabalise each other - quite the opposite actually. The 50% S/R over the past 6 months (52% actually) is per selection and in that time there have been no races with multiple selections. There have been races where multiple systems have selected the same horse and in these situations the S/R and POT have grown in relation to the number of systems that have selected the horse - the more systems that select the same horse, the higher the S/R and POT.

Cheers,

Mat.

[rails run]

I run about 10 systems and in the last 6 months my average winner paid less than $3 but my strike rate was over 50% which is great because I hate long runs of outs which is what you get chasing big priced winners. You can definitely find value at the pointy end of the market but you need to be selective and patient
Cheers,

Mat.
Quite right Mat. Who here wouldn't jump on $2.10 offered on a random coin flip? I'd lose plenty of events along the way but I'll bank my long term profit with pleasure. Value isn't always about a horses chance of winning. My long term strike rates are more reliable & obvious to me than my ability to assess individual horses.

[mattio]

Exactly right RR, I will generally run my systems around getting the highest S/R I can and then finding the best price I can for the selections (not always possible though I'm afraid) which is why I try to find favourites (or 2nd/3rd favs) who are true favourites instead of false ones.

An example is a favourites system I run where I have a short list of selections but they only become a bet if they run the favourite on NSWTAB. In the past 6 months there were 184 bets for a 53% S/R and 35% POT - not bad for a system with an average NSWTAB price of around $2.50.

Cheers,

Mat.