A starting point to back longshots

[UselessBettor]

Here is a little system that seems to hit a consistent run of long shots.

1. Stick to races 5 and later at each meeting
2. Go to 2ky.com.au and find all meetings with at least 2 tipsters
3. Tip every selection not tipped.
4. Bet on betfair as the odds are higher

Yesterday we hit the following:

Sunshine Coast R8 : $65.00
Coffs Harbour R6: $9.70
Bendigo R5 : $19.50
Hawksberry R7 : $13.00

Today:

Swan Hill R6: $22.00
Swan Hill R10: $110

Thats 2 day results totalling $239.20 and I can assure you there were not 232 selections in the 6 meetings covered. Thats 26 races covered. There were 168 selections over those races meaning a POT of 42%.

This happens regularly enough its a starting point for backing.

[TheSchmile]

Hi UB,

Interesting angle!

Thanks for posting, I'll check it out!

[Star]

That's an interesting senario, U.B. It all ties in with what I have got spinning around in my head.

Problem is, it is still jumbled and I need to let it cook for a bit longer so I can write it out so it looks feasible.

The more research I do, the more scrambled the results are. Surely that might give me a lead in to something.

Your thinking sort of looks into that also if I have understood what you point is.

Star

[Barny]

I like it !!!

[Star]

I like it !!!And I suspect that Beton will too.

The results U.B. put up surprise me in one way but then, in another they do not.

My scrambled brain is thinking how I can come up with an Anti System which would be the Anti Christ of all betting systems.

Further discussion on U.B.'s idea really needs to be done.

Star

[Barny]

The logic of it is that there's so much money being poured into the popular filters, that at some point fair value loses out to being over bet, and under the odds, so the profit is to be made elsewhere.

[beton]

Star
"And I suspect that Beton will too"
That's a little too presumptuous. There is no logic and nothing to support it. Definately not my cup of tea. Beton

[Star]

The logic of it is that there's so much money being poured into the popular filters, that at some point fair value loses out to being over bet, and under the odds, so the profit is to be made elsewhere.
Give the man the Cigar.

I hope LG views this thread because he questions where I am coming from. Gee, I do not even know myself.

But Barny is helping me get my thoughts back into line. I think I should frame his Quote because where I am at today that is my exact thoughts.

Maybe, what I said in jest is not far off the mark because of the loss of fair value.

Maybe my idea of the Anti Christ system, you know, the one Lucifer would think of, that would completly blind side the betting public. My thinking would be that it would have to be an outsiders type system.

Star

[UselessBettor]

I've used tatts odds today so betfair prices would be higher:

Pakenham R7: $5.00
Pakenham R9: $6.90
Pakenham R10: $22.20
Moree R5: $13.80
Townsville R5: $9.70
Wyong R6: $11.70
Townsville R7: $30.10

Total returned at tatts: $99.40

Total Selections today : 85

Considering these were tatts tote odds I am impressed yet again as I am sure betfair odds would have made a huge profit again.

[Star]

Star
"And I suspect that Beton will too"
That's a little too presumptuous. There is no logic and nothing to support it. Definately not my cup of tea. Beton
Ok . Sorry.

I take it all back.

Regards

Star

[Merriguy]

Quite an interesting idea, UB!!

I notice, however, that you haven't strictly followed the rule of two tipsters being necessary --- or have I misunderstood (quite likely).

For example the last race at Townsville. Great result, but only one tipster???

[Merriguy]

Whoops! My mistake. Sorry.

I did not go to 2KY site --- was only looking at what was available on the Unitab site. Good luck today.

[Chrome Prince]

This might be an idea for running doubles or exotics etc.
However, as soon as a run of favourites or top market horses has a winning streak, it'll be curtains. 85% of the time you'll get beaten, so the odds need to be very good (better than Betfair).

[Lord Greystoke]

This might be an idea for running doubles or exotics etc.
However, as soon as a run of favourites or top market horses has a winning streak, it'll be curtains. 85% of the time you'll get beaten, so the odds need to be very good (better than Betfair).

Just to confirm - are you saying that once a winning streak occurs, much less chance of it continuing from there OR odds get trouched once the pattern of wins is out there (or both??)

Cheers LG

[Barny]

Give the man the Cigar.

My thinking would be that it would have to be an outsiders type system.

Star
I disagree .... you could have the weight of money tipping one horse into an area where it's well and truly overbet, say $4.00 in to $2.50 and then the value is elsewhere. It may have been the opening 2nd fav that's blown out the gate to now be paying $7.00. The fav looks home on every aspect of form you look for, it's got winning form, but then why was the 2nd fav so short early on ??

Just one aspect of getting value without going for the longshot all the time.

[Barny]

I've got years and years of Herald Sun form guides for Saturday Metro and the results. I'll trawl through a few over the next week or so and give you a heads up. I'm thinking it mightn't work so well with City class, but won't know till I look. So I'm looking for horses that don't appear in the tables as being tipped by any tipster for 1st, 2nd or 3rd. The opposite of what most would do .....

[UselessBettor]

Murray Bridge race 5 Today : $19.80 (tatts)

But 67 selections today so a losing day.