Systems. The Advantages vs The Disadventurers.

[Star]

This is to follow on from a thread I started which was closed down by Management.

( That should get the flags flying ) But their is no need to worry. My wording in my other thread may have appeared to be insensitive to some, but that is not what was intended.

Basically, what I wanted to discuss is what is your main reason for using betting systems or staking plans or using part system and part personal selection.

I have my reasons, as silly as they are, and I am financially better off by going that way ( eg, I am losing less, in a more disciplined manner )

So, with Management's approval, I hope we can continue on with this thread as it will help me and hopefully others.

Star

[Shaun]

I will try and keep this on track.

For me it is a way to understand why i do what i do, why i selected that horse.

To be honest i think we all follow some sort of system if we didn't then whats the point, you are better off just asking a crowd what they like and backing that one.

even that is a system of sorts.

[The Ocho]

Hi Star (nice moniker - I hope you can back it up :D ).

The reason I try and use systems is that I am absolutely hopeless in trying to pick a winner to back or a loser to lay. I've tried and am still trying all sorts of systems but to really no avail.

Horse race trading on Betfair is my only real forte but you get sick of doing that every weekend. I build up my bank trading and then lose it all system chasing.

Well, that's my story in briefs.

[Try Try Again]

A good start to this thread - let's hope it continues.

For me it's discipline. Rather than get swamped by endless and sometimes confusing information I can start with the basic information, apply some simple rules and get to the endpoint - a potential winner!

[Star]

Hi Star (nice moniker - I hope you can back it up :D ).

The reason I try and use systems is that I am absolutely hopeless in trying to pick a winner to back or a loser to lay. I've tried and am still trying all sorts of systems but to really no avail.

Horse race trading on Betfair is my only real forte but you get sick of doing that every weekend. I build up my bank trading and then lose it all system chasing.

Well, that's my story in briefs.
Yep.

I use it on a few forums. Thehfirst one was where hubris was more important than substance, so its stuck.

But, in reality at punting, I suck. Well, especially over the last few years. I alway s had a treble on the weekend for years and years. When i got one it always paid overs, so I guessed I was always in front.

But over the last few years the dividends were rubbish and most imes I was better off backing all up.

I can remember many years ago when 4Tab had the manager of UniTab on every Saturday and one morning they were discussing the pool takes and the Manager said on the annual figures the Treble Pool was down but we all know the rerason for that and the announcer agreed.

Obviously all were in on it but me. Still do not know why, except the dividends are not what they used to be.

Star

[moeee]

4Tab had the manager of UniTab on every Saturday and one morning they were discussing the pool takes and the Manager said on the annual figures the Treble Pool was down but we all know the rerason for that and the announcer agreed.

Star
Tell me the reason so I can know as well

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Star.

The way I see it, developing a system or systematic way of doing anything is a convenient way for the human brain to...

1. conserve energy
2. organise and apply thoughts, theories (hunches?)
3. produce desired results or outcomes on a more consistent basis

Whether that be selecting horses to win a race or do the washing up.
What might be a tad more interesting than the above is to get a feel for where your thoughts are on this.
You have indicated the following in your 1st post here, which I find quite interesting..

I have my reasons, as silly as they are, and I am financially better off by going that way ( eg, I am losing less, in a more disciplined manner )

Would be interesting to see you elaborate further on your main reasons for using betting systems or staking plans.

Cheers LG

[Star]

Hi Star.

The way I see it, developing a system or systematic way of doing anything is a convenient way for the human brain to...

1. conserve energy
2. organise and apply thoughts, theories (hunches?)
3. produce desired results or outcomes on a more consistent basis

Whether that be selecting horses to win a race or do the washing up.
What might be a tad more interesting than the above is to get a feel for where your thoughts are on this.
You have indicated the following in your 1st post here, which I find quite interesting..

I have my reasons, as silly as they are, and I am financially better off by going that way ( eg, I am losing less, in a more disciplined manner )

Would be interesting to see you elaborate further on your main reasons for using betting systems or staking plans.

Cheers LG

Interesting questions LG. I will take up that opportunity, but it will have to be tomorrow.

Star.

[Star]

LG has asked me for my reasons for using Systems. What he has actually done is to answer my question with a question. Good tactic.

And, respect to LG who has followed many of my posts closely because at times, I may have confused him with my answers.

Let's just say I have always had an interest in systems. It comes and it goes. When I cam in here a few months ago I was full of hope and some confidence that a little system I had been tweaking was showing some promise.

A search of my posts will show this to be true. It was working well for about five or so months. Then I opened my big fat mouth and put some selections on here and then things went A up.

I then followed with interests many threads and tweaked the system to see if I could reverse the downward trend. Unfortunately to no avail. However, the advantage was, I was doing no real harm to myself because I was only using Sportsbet and they allow a minimum bet of ten cents.

I prefer to use real money then monopoly money. Then it occured to me to see if I could out perform the system bet. While the system was failing badly, my personal selections were going ok even though in races I thought my system pick was a great chance and I selected a saver, I was finding my saver was well and truly outperforming my system.

It was almost like, select a system horse or horses and then forget them and select around them.

This is why possibly some of my posts appear to have made no sense and it might have looked like I was always all over the place.

However, to me, the beauty of System betting is that it still gives me an interest for very little outlay and fortunately I am happy with the eentertainment I get from it.

Random selections, require a lot more discipline and a rush of overconfidence, when the tide is going out can cause some serious damage.

So, to me, Systems have a place. While I would like to say I am successful at it, I cannot, at least, my losses are minimal.

Star

[Puntz]

What is the definition of: "SYSTEM", ? !

I no longer use Google btw, due to their "systems", so my search engine was, "other-than-google"

I had a better result using this new system than the old google system, to define the word, "system", for this topic.

http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Mathematical+system+theory


OK,
but, to get a handle on the many systems out there, I used a system of history/success, past tense.
I wanted to find those who HAVE succeeded as successful punters.

My records found the root source of modern day punters dating back many years, before the use of the computer, how did they succeed, etc etc etc.

One of the best "systematologist" without the use of computers on the day seems to be:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_E._Smith_(gambler)
NOTE: Smith's net worth, including real estate and stocks and bonds, was $3,250,000,
Smith died at the sanitarium on February 1, 1905.
-----------
Questions and Considerations
3 million $ from the punt in 1905 = success and/or a successful "system" ?

A:
------------
The book is at most state librarys,
It's little green book, not for loan in most cases, but all you need are the rules/systems or better known as maxims, contained in that book!

Racing maxims and methods of "Pittsburg Phil"

Edward R. Cole. Racing maxims and methods of "Pittsburg Phil" (George E. Smith) : complete system as employed by the most successful speculator in the history of the American turf; condensed wisdom of twenty years' experience on the track from the only personal interviews ever given by the famous horseman. 1908. From Kentuckiana Digital Library.

[Star]

Great post Puntz.

That should get LG and Moeee of my case for awhile. lol.

Now, I have to go back and follow those links, do some research, so I can reply with some intelligence.

Star

[Star]

I had heard of Pittsburg Phil. I thought he was in the imagination of that Monthly Punting magazine.

Looks like he got it right. No computers eh! I wonder if that is my problem too.
Rubbish in, Rubbish out. KISS. Pareto.

I see a trend here.

Star

[Try Try Again]

One of Pittsburgh Phil's maxims that I found very true over years of going to the races was:-

"A man cannot divide his attention at the track between horses and women".

[Vortech]

Its funny how many punters use the term systems or rules when developing a selection process in horse racing and not in other sports.

Imagine the punter in the AFL or NRL going through and rating each player based on past performance at that ground against that club based on the ground conditions and the day of the week.

I think in theory a system is good to fed out the non-qualifers and then you can use your head to back a winner or multple of winners.

I have more success today with ratings not just backing on the nose but a mixture of betting types.

On the weekend I was more than happy to watch the cash come for Green Birdie. Even tho Ready to Rip prior win the form didn't hold up you can tell from a system based selection that it was going to improve.

For the London Games I backed every event were there were more than 20 qualifers and the outright win was between $1.10 and $1.40. Ended up with 13 qualifers.

Sorry I'm off the topic a little.

[The Ocho]

Racing maxims and methods of "Pittsburg Phil"

Is this him?

http://crossfitsalvation.typepad.com/.a/6a0134868bc383970c016300919bb3970d-320wi

Sorry that's Punxsutawney Phil

[Try Try Again]

Another of Pittsburgh Phil's Maxims that rings very true was:-

"Many killings are attempted but few are accomplished".

[CosMos]

http://kdl.kyvl.org/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=kyetexts;cc=kyetexts;view=toc;idno=B98-50-42629565

[Shaun]

Holy crap i just used a program to try and download the whole article but think i downloaded the website,just filled my hard drive.

[beton]

Good read so far, Have to come back to it to finish. Hats of to "Phil" He is a far better man than me. One point comes over loud and clear:- The history ,the handicapping, the ratings are only part of the equation. They are the start of the exercise but the new knowledge :- the conditions of the track today and the condition of the individual horses today are the most important part of the equation. "Phil" had men on the ground feeding him this info, similarly the HK syndicates have men on the ground, and no doubt the majority of successful punters have to access this new knowledge to be successful. The handicappers job is to make all runners able to win. The trainers job is to make his horse most able to win. The jockeys job is to push and guide the horse to win. The bookies job is to make the punter pay. It is our job to sort the wheat from the chaff. Clearly we have to access more new knowledge. Beton

[Star]

Good read so far, Have to come back to it to finish. Hats of to "Phil" He is a far better man than me. One point comes over loud and clear:- The history ,the handicapping, the ratings are only part of the equation. They are the start of the exercise but the new knowledge :- the conditions of the track today and the condition of the individual horses today are the most important part of the equation.

"Phil" had men on the ground feeding him this info, Clearly we have to access more new knowledge. Beton
This has developed into something I never expected. When I said I had my system picks and then tried to use my own intelligence as a saver, I found a trend where my selections were generally more successful.

Maybe somewhere in between is where I should be looking. Using artificial intelligence ( the computer and combining that with natural intelligence ) the background and research.

Not trying to narrow it down to a single unit, but maybe as Beton has said, Getting rid of the chaff, might be a better policy.


Star

[Star]

http://kdl.kyvl.org/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=kyetexts;cc=kyetexts;view=toc;idno=B98-50-42629565
Gee, thanks for that Link CosMos. You have made this thread so readable.

Star

[CosMos]

Thanks for your acknowledgement Star, much appreciated

"You will see these men along the rail close to the judge's stand, or up in the big stand with their eyes glued to their field glasses. I have heard the uninformed say, when observing this: "That man is still running the race". It is not necessary to reply to such remarks for time is too precious. I want to know how a horse pulls up after a race, how the effort has affected him, whether he won easily without calling upon his reserve power, or whether he was distressed and all out. Many a time one horse has beaten another by a length or two, but with an expenditure of effort that told, while the beaten horse was not palpably distressed. It will take considerable time for the winner to recover from his effort. The second horse will be improved by the race..." ~Pittsburgh Phil.

[Barny]

I would say that the reason I use a system is not only to make a profit, but my sole focus is now centred on what filters give me the best POT, and of course they aren't the popular combination of filters. A system has given me the confidence to go to the races and "know" which horses are the best value. I'm not looking so much for Win S/R, but looking at a race with my focus centred firmly on what would put the average punter off from backing this horse, keeping in mind it has to be some chance of winning.

With a system I find I can be far more disciplined, and not chase losses because I know (in racing terms !!!) that a winner is just around the corner, maybe not today or tomorrow, but if the system is proven, then it can be followed with some confidence.

It's a fine line between winning and losing, but you can show a profit if you don't get caught up backing horses where the weight of money has pushed them into overbet territory.

[Star]

I have really been rethinking my System approach. I had a simple enough system that was going ok. Then I came back here a few months ago and tried to get too cute and everything has gone belly up.

I have been rethinking my approach trying different stratergies and competing against it by selecting the horse I thought could win. My systems failed but my self selections went ok.

Then I read the Pittsburg Phil story and he made a lot of sense even though it was a long time ago. So I thought I would try to come up with something that employed a system value but had some human imput into it as well.

Today was my first day with it and I put $20 into my Sportsbet account and decided 2 1/2% of bank balanced each night for the next days bets. So 50 cents per bet was the first day.

Six bets in total. Surprise the first won paying $8 then a further two giving me three winners a second out of six starters.

My bank is now $25.55. So I won $5.55 on fifty cents bets. Tomorrow my bets will be at 70 cents. actually 63.87 cents but I take it up to the next full ten cents.

That is the good thing about Sportsbet they accept 10 cents minimum bests and they like losers.

I have been trying to work a self selection and a System selection intogether to get rid of some of the hopeless selections they came up with yet still allow me the hope of some good price winners.

I have to thank CosMos for his link, it has helped me to come up with a new stratergy based on a different approach.

Star

[Lord Greystoke]

I

That is the good thing about Sportsbet they accept 10 cents minimum bests and they like losers.

Star

Your 1st point comes as some surprise. The second would be why they exist however i.e. as with the bookies - their business model being to make the punter pay, as one learned contributor on here pointed out recently.

LG

[Star]

Your 1st point comes as some surprise. The second would be why they exist however i.e. as with the bookies - their business model being to make the punter pay, as one learned contributor on here pointed out recently.

LG
LG

You take me too seriously. Sometimes I talk Irish, meaning tongue in cheek. Or as might be said in less esteemed circles as " Taking the .... "

Star

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Star, just a point I thought worth making. Nothing more or less than that.

Regards reading between the lines with your posts, which I think you are alluding to here.. what I have noticed about your posting style is that you sometimes fail to read the actual words posted by others or take in the detail provided.

As an example, in your response to my first 1 or 2 posts on this thread you stated that I had answered a question (from you) with a question(to you) and that this was a bit 'clever'. If you re-read my post you will notice that I have in fact offered my own broad definition of what a system is (and why it is important) FIRST and then asked you to offer your version as a good starting point for us all.

Just for the record, I find it a bit irritating that you sometimes miss or gloss over important detail provided in specific posts by others or make general assumptions about where others are coming from (or not coming from), yet you have pulled me up on missing when you are 'taking the ********'.

I have learned to be humble on here however, especially regards posters who have many more years of experience on me when it comes to the punt. But respect should also be given where someone else has started up a thread in earnest looking for input or whatever, in my opinion.

To that effect, I will bow out of this thread and leave you to it. Good luck with finding some answers!


Cheers LG

[Star]

Ok . This is to kill my new system. Only two bets for Thursday.

----

Gold Coast Race 4 no 9 Toy Ruler Bet $ 0.70

Bendigo R7 no 1 Pauline. Bet $ 0.70

Let's see what the curse can do with them.

Star

[Star]

In reply to LG. Point taken.

Star

[Bhagwan]

Another Pitsburg Phil maxim...

"I picks them to win & backs them to Place."

Now, in the USA, the Place market means 1st or 2nd only & some good divs are to be had
Just have a look at the TAB divs in Aust where only 2 divs are paid on a race

US Show market - means 1st-3rd

He made a fortune betting the horse to run 1st or 2nd (US Place market)

Aust punters could be easily confused that he was betting into an Aust type Place market, where 3 divs are usually paid, where divs are a lot less.

I feel Pittsburg Phil would be struggling to make those profits on the Aust type Place market where 3 divs are paid, where it pays a lot less.

Maybe it could be an interesting exercise to target races where only 2 place divs are paid, to see if it could be more profitable to go that way.

[Star]

Bhagwan.

Thanks for replying. Its an interesting point you are making, sometimes we are not comparing apples with apples.

On another point, some years ago, I got from this forum a betting spreadsheet which I still use to this day.

I assumed it was from you, if so, thanks very much. It would be one of the most helpful things I have got out of this forum, if not you, then my thanks to the person who passed it on.

It had the Chi % in it as well as R.O.I. Profit, etc. Just perfect for what I do and not over complicated. Also, the person who put it up may have even designed it himself. So, a fair bit of work went into it.

But, he was not giving away the farm, because he let you enter your own selections in, His program often told you the folly of your ideas and system.

Star

[garyf]

Good you are back on board again Bhags.


Cheers.
Garyf.

[Bhagwan]

I have been busy working on a couple of cunning methods.

[Puntz]

Definition of MAXIM
http://grammar.about.com/od/qaaboutrhetoric/f/maximqa.htm



Copy n Pasted freely from a website.

Maxims of Pittsburg Phil
“Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil,” by Edward W. Cole (1908).

1.A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet. A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet. A good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet.

2.A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.

3.Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.

4.The minute that a man loses his balance on the race track he is like a horse that is trying to run away.

5.A man cannot divide his attention at the track between horses and women.

6.All consistently successful players of horses are men of temperate habits in life.

7.The racing man should arise in the morning cool and clear headed and should then take up the problem of the day.

8.Some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.

9.If there are two or three very fast horses in a race one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey. Hence look out for your intelligent jockey.

10.Many killings are attempted but few are accomplished.

11.In handicaps the top weights are at a disadvantage always unless they are very high class horses.

12.There are few trainers who can send a horse to the post the first time out in perfect condition.

13.One race for a horse is equal to two or three private trials.

14.Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority.

15.Winners repeat frequently while the defeated are apt to be defeated almost continuously.

16.The majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course. Mud runners are usually good on the turf.

17.Time enters into the argument under certain conditions but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting.

18.The ability to tell whether a horse is at its best before a race is acquired only after years of the closest kind of study.

19.Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work.

20.A horse that frets is a very dangerous betting proposition.

21.The majority of the riders and horses are game and will fight for victory no matter where they are placed.

22.Some jockeys excel on heavy tracks.

23.A good mud rider will frequently bring a bad horse home.

24.You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.

25.The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment.

26.It is not always the heaviest commission that is collected. The weight of the commission does not make a horse win. A poor man’s horse and his $10 speak as loudly as a $10,000 commission from a millionaire. It is the horse that must be considered.

27.The clocker is something like the scout in the army.

28.Honest horses, ridden by honest boys, are sometimes beaten by honest trainers. Instructions are given to the riders which mean sure defeat when intended to be the best.

29.The resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race and it is a correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. Wind and atmosphere have considerable effect on horses that are troubled in their respiratory organs.

30.Class in a horse is the ability possessed by it to carry its stipulated stake weight, take the track and go the distance that nature intended that it should go.

31. I figure that two-year-olds can give considerably more weight away to horses in their class, than can horses in the older division excepting in isolated areas.

32.There is enough natural inconsistency in horse racing without having it forced upon the public by unscrupulous men, yet there is not one-tenth of one per cent, as much crookedness on the turf as it is given credit for.

33.A horse that is not contented in his stable cannot take on flesh and be happy.

34.Every horse I ever owned improved after I had him long enough to study his disposition.

35.A horse expects to race if he is a thoroughbred, just the same as a game chicken is anxious to fight.

36.When you feel yourself getting out of form then take a rest and freshen up.

37.What is frequently right in form is wrong in condition. If a horse is not in good condition he might as well be in the stable.

38.Look for improvement of mares in the fall of the year. They train better and more consistent.

39.There are mud riders as well as mud runners in the racing world.

40.A jockey should not be overloaded with instructions.

41.It is not bad speculation to pick out two or three sure looking bets and parlay a small amount.

42.Cut your bets when in a losing streak and increase them when running in a spasm of good luck.

43.Double your wages when you have the bookmakers’ money in hand.

44.Condition has more to do with a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries.

45.A horse in poor condition cannot beat one of his own class.

46.A high class horse could not win a race with a feather on his back if he is not in condition.

47.Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.

48.t is well to play horses that are in winning form. A horse in winning condition generally repeats or runs into the money.

49.Different tracks cause decided changes in form frequently. Study horses’ whims and fancies for certain tracks and you will see a good “lay” or a good “play.” But a high class horse will do his best on any track.

50.The less one thinks of crookedness and trickery in racing the more successful will be his handicapping.

51.Look for defect in your own calculating rather than cheating of others.

52.Learn to finance your money to advantage.

53.Know when to put a good bet down and when not to.

Preferably, to make things simple, the MAXIMS here can be a set of "ideals", or the "Ideal Scenario" to reach for...this then leaves room for progressive experiences and tailored made to suit.

---------------------,

I remember Mark's system, which I still have a copy ( transcript ) of that original thread on file.
1-Delete all runners that open............., etc etc etc....
So combining some of the maxims and Mark's system, can produce a good day at the races....
no computer required for the basic of basics, but I do use some sort of record keeping, MAXIM 52, for example.

[garyf]

Obviously a man "WAY WAY" ahead of his time.


Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Golden Maxim from me.

If you are able to determine a horse's resting heart rate in the stall prior to being tacked up, you can eliminate many fancied runners ;)

The trick is to know how to get it.

[beton]

29.The resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race and it is a correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. Wind and atmosphere have considerable effect on horses that are troubled in their respiratory organs


Brings the old slipstream arguement to the fore. Creates a new equation.

[Star]

Punz.

Thanks for going to the trouble to put up the maxim's of Pittsburg Phil. I needed to alter my stratergy a bit and Phil gave me some other angles to look at and try to work those angles into a system, get rid of some non producers and improve some of my Maxim's which I suppose are part of my DNA now.

So far so good.

4 Winners from 9 starters. Two more bets to go today.

Canberra R5 no 3 Red Captive

Geelong R6 No 4 Delivery


ROI 93%

SR 44%

Now to keep it up.

Star

[jose]

"If you are able to determine a horse's resting heart rate in the stall prior to being tacked up, you can eliminate many fancied runners"

CP could you expand on that thought a bit if you don't mind, as this is along the lines of something I was doing for a year or so a while back (with no real success I may add).

[Chrome Prince]

jose,
You were getting the horse's resting heart rate?

There are many ways of looking at a horse to know whether it's fit or not.
The coat, muscle development, rib visibility, eye clarity, tongue colour etc etc.
The problem comes when some horses strip fit in different ways, could be due to age, frame type, metabolism or anything else.
The only true and accurate measurement of a horse's fitness (apart from form), is resting heart rate. This will also tell you if the horse has trained off.

Blood count will tell you the the health of the horse, but not the fitness.

Unfortunately resting heart rate is not published anywhere, but when I was given this information by a friend who worked in a stable, it was 70% accurate.
Anyone close to a stable will know how effective this information is, often market movements from stables incorporate this information.

Now for the average punter, this information is simply unobtainable, but we are very close to Iphone applications which will read a horse's resting heart rate in it's holding stall. Obviously one has to be on course and fairly inconspicuous.

[jose]

CP, no not resting heart rates, but fitness and fitness patterns mostly.
I attended every Saturday Metro meet in Brissy for over 12 months a few years back trying to get it into profit but to no avail, sad but true.
A few things I did notice by being on course were a bit of a help, but by and large not enough to profit from on a consistent basis.

The most helpful thing I did notice was if a certain few jocks were sporting a "gear change " of their own it was usually a goer. They didn't always win, but at least you could see they were trying.