The Folly of Using ONLY Popular Filters

[Barny]

METRO
3 y/o+
< 22days
<$6.00 SP
<21 starts
> 75% Place
Prize Money Rank 1 to 3
Last Start 1st to 4th

Selections 10,306
Winners 3,145
LOT 12.55%

[beton]

Barny
This is going in circles. Don't say its broke. Give a solution. Your six magical filters are just that - filters. You won't be giving away the family jewels. just say that these are better filters to use. Then we will know where you are coming from. Beton

[Vortech]

Apply these to weight n class ratings and you have a profitable system.

[jose]

If given a choice, at the moment I would take the 12% LOSS!!!!!!!!!!!

[Barny]

beton, I've just put up some information for those without a databse.

That's it !!

Happy to change the filters if someone want's me to .....

[Barny]

Apply these to weight n class ratings and you have a profitable system.
Dumb question Vortech, but do you know where the Victorian Herald Sun get their ratings ???, or for that matter, any of the newspapers ???

[beton]

beton, I've just put up some information for those without a databse.

That's it !!

Happy to change the filters if someone want's me to .....
Thats what I am saying Barny. Don't post something that you think is broke, add the filter or 2 that makes it break even or better still, that delivers a positive POT. I am not having a go at you Barny, I am trying to help you present in a manner where everyone can have a pleasureable experience. Beton

[Vortech]

Barny I have a friend I just sent a note to that has all that information

Basically I don't use them much as they normally take the last 3 runs or the best of 5 runs and create a base rating from which does nothing than calculate a price. The last 3 runs could be over any condition or distance range not even in comparison to todays race.

[Vortech]

Dumb question Vortech, but do you know where the Victorian Herald Sun get their ratings ???, or for that matter, any of the newspapers ???

90% sure it might be techform.

[garyf]

Interesting posts and replies there guys.

So let me ask this question so i know i am on the right path here,
Doesn't matter this thread or others using ratings be it weight, class, speed, etc,
Leads to backing overbet favorites and no matter what we use as filters,
We must all of us lose in the long term is this correct?.

And using ratings that are free is even worse like say skyform, and their panels,
A.A.P prepost, Unitab, Don Scott etc ,all these eventually no matter what we do will lead us to the poor house have i got this right or am i wrong.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Barny,

Three filters put this method into profit on UB's tester:
Leader, Pacemaker / Barrier 6+ / Use betfair

Out 97 In 115

Garyf,

I'm assuming your tongue is firmly in cheek with your comments?

If not, I disagree that all ratings systems lead to overbet favourites. If you understand how the ratings are formulated and their various strengths and weaknesses, you can find value in my experience.

[garyf]

Interesting posts and replies there guys.

So let me ask this question so i know i am on the right path here,
Doesn't matter this thread or others using ratings be it weight, class, speed, etc,
Leads to backing overbet favorites and no matter what we use as filters,
We must all of us lose in the long term is this correct?.

And using ratings that are free is even worse like say skyform, and their panels,
A.A.P prepost, Unitab, Don Scott etc ,all these eventually no matter what we do will lead us to the poor house have i got this right or am i wrong.

Cheers.
Garyf.Hi TS.

I actually have very firm beliefs the question i ,
Have asked of others, is for people,
To either say yes or no to the post and maybe a reason.
Either you agree or disagree.

Just re-read the first 6 words and last 9 words in my post my opinion,
Is nowhere to be seen just a simple question.

You say no that's great.

I am sure reading how the selection is obtained,
In the prepost system, and other articles on L.G'S
Quaddy thread to T.T.A. where i stand,of course,
That's just me, doesn't make it right or wrong.

Cheers.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Garyf,

I find that the DS ratings work well on certain types of races and the R + S weight ratings on entirely different races in my experience.

So to answer your question completely seriously, I disagree that following free ratings will lead you to the poor house. There are various ways to interpret/filter different typres of ratings and find an edge. For me, it's being selective and betting big mostly on Saturdays with the ratings I use.

[garyf]

Hi Garyf,

I find that the DS ratings work well on certain types of races and the R + S weight ratings on entirely different races in my experience.

So to answer your question completely seriously, I disagree that following free ratings will lead you to the poor house. There are various ways to interpret/filter different typres of ratings and find an edge. For me, it's being selective and betting big mostly on Saturdays with the ratings I use.Yep couldn't agree more.

Now i have done it, gone and given.
My opinion on my own question.
When i promised myself i wouldn't.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[garyf]

Yep couldn't agree more.

Now i have done it, gone and given.
My opinion on my own question.
When i promised myself i wouldn't.

Cheers.
Garyf.Forgot the icon above the qoute.

Cheers.

[Shaun]

I know i have only been working with Skyform for about a week but from what i have seen they may be best if you select the panels that you feel more comfortable with.

When i design ratings i try to set it up so each bit of good form enhances the overall prospect and i am in the belief that if you have enough good form on your side it can over turn the bad, a lot of punters look no further than the 3 form figures or the jockey and maybe a couple other bits of key form.

I think Skyform use completely different techniques for each panel that often don't enhance a runners prospects but can harm it.

[TheSchmile]

Yep couldn't agree more.

Now i have done it, gone and given.
My opinion on my own question.
When i promised myself i wouldn't.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Ha ha Garyf,

What can you do??!! :D

Not trying to toot your horn too much Garyf, however the best advice I can give to anyone wishing to conquer the ratings world, is to spend a day or two trawling through Garyf's numerous posts on this forum and gather as much info as possible. Not just the pre-post thread but his ratings thoughts over the best part of a few years. The answers you seek are right here on the forum.

*No disrespect to any other forumites, as there are numerous quality posts on the subject of ratings and all things racing. God love ya's all!!

"Racing tragics, UNITE!!!!" :)

[Vortech]

Interesting posts and replies there guys.

So let me ask this question so i know i am on the right path here,
Doesn't matter this thread or others using ratings be it weight, class, speed, etc,
Leads to backing overbet favorites and no matter what we use as filters,
We must all of us lose in the long term is this correct?.

And using ratings that are free is even worse like say skyform, and their panels,
A.A.P prepost, Unitab, Don Scott etc ,all these eventually no matter what we do will lead us to the poor house have i got this right or am i wrong.

Cheers.
Garyf.
I think you need to be confident with testing your rating price is correct.
I have done lots of testing and now know over 5000 races my $2.00 rating chance wins 50% of the time (give or take 0.5%). This means if I can get $2.20 its worth a bet. (based on a 100% market price)

Often you'll find there is no value in the short prices and most of the time I'm only betting where the favourite is $4.00 but it depends on your rated price. I am yet to isolate the data by venue as I need more data to be confident of my strike rate vs rating price.

I don't see the point of a rating system having a horse priced at $2.00 when you test and find you only win 40% of the time long term.

Since your help in ratings I've been backing 3 horses per race and find I have a 51% strike rate with a $6.57 avg dividend.

garyf posts are a good read!

[Try Try Again]

Barny,

Herald Sun Ratings = Unitab Ratings

[Vortech]

Barny,

Herald Sun Ratings = Unitab Ratings
Learn something new everyday. So Herald Sun = Unitab = AAP Form Analysier.

[darkydog2002]

Here,s a angle I seen a few days ago whilst perusing inracings free daily meeting.
A horse rated at 4/7 opening up at $41 (the TC rated for were ok on the day)
It lost but in my opinion was worthy of a bet.

i.e Rated by your fav rater at odds on but opening at a very good price.

Perhaps keeping a eye on these type of bets might produce a yearly profit.


Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Inracing has 1 tomorrow Echuca R 5 H 2 rated at 4/7.
What it will open up at is anybodys guess.

[garyf]

Remiss of me not to mention this.

The "IN WET" ratings that appear on the victorian website,
With the other panels have absolutely nothing to do with the,
Everyrace .com selections or the wizard ratings as they are known as.

These "IN WET" ratings are sourced from "skychannel"

http://www.skychannel.com.au/racing/index.php

It is confusing as they call there ratings skyform as well,
So you have two sets of ratings with the same name.

The order with the in-wet is often different to the ones,
That are on the above link.

Like the best overall column for some reason when there are scratchings,
Their computer does make errors in the adjustments.

All the other columns are adjusted correctly.(bar the best-overall)

The everyrace.com
or wizard ratings do not produce a set of ratings for wet tracks.

The best columns for strike rate overall is the skyform ratings 1-2.

The next best are the top 1-2 in the best overall column

The Best Form column has the highest average dividend of all,
But also one of the lowest strike rates in their top 1-2.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Garyf.
Much appreciated.
Cheers
darky

[Barny]

Many thanks to Vortech and Try Try Again for their answers regarding where ratings come from in the Herald Sun.

[Barny]

Handicapping, stable money, developing your own stable of horses to follow, ratings, a set of filters, following the money in the ring ..... are the main methods punters use to select a winner. Within each of these categories there is a plethora of further information a punter could use to make their selection.

Punters using ONLY the most popular filters simply cannot win because most systems followers will have quite a few of these filters in their system so that leads to most system money being on a select few horses. And it's my belief that punters using other methods set out above will also use one or two of the most popular filters to further refine their selection method.

Some of the most popular filters will be included in a high % of pure Systems selection method, and to a lesser extent, but significantly so when we're looking at the impact of overbet / over use of popular filters, in other selection methods.

[Vortech]

So true you are Barny,


Hence why more value can often be found where the pool size is not so large in the country mid-week races.

[gunny72]

I agree with darkydog. Punters using popular filters are losing but they probably have a reasonable strike rate and that keeps them going - a lingering death of the punting bank by a thousand cuts!

I have been playing with UB's site and have found that I can get reasonable POTs by using uncommon filters but the payoff is low strikes rates of about 10% or less. This sr expects runs of outs of about 30 to 50 for confidence levels of 95% to 99%.

I recently posted a system that has produced a profit for the last three years but I have only kept accurate records since Jan this year and the profit has been very encouraging if it holds up. It only received one comment which just suggests to me that most punters are only comfortable with the popular filters even if they lose using them.

[Barny]

So true you are Barny,


Hence why more value can often be found where the pool size is not so large in the country mid-week races.
I cannot find a group of filters that shows a POT on country races, not even close !!!!!

Your ratings may be the go there then !!!!

[Vortech]

One of my best country systems uses the top 4 ratings

apply the following filters

a. Days last start 1-5
b. Last start finish 4 - 24
c. Won at the course
d. Last start margin 4.0 lengths or less.

[AngryPixie]

I don't see the point of a rating system having a horse priced at $2.00 when you test and find you only win 40% of the time long term.

Vortech yep I've been banging on about this for some time. Bit of a touchy subject I think as there's never much of a response.

The one or two of you :D who've been following the "Profiting from the Crowd" thread will know that you can profit from freely available ratings. You just need to know how to work with them. And I'm a self confessed non-ratings person :eek:

[darkydog2002]

The key to ratings is to follow them exactly as they are given.
To try to outsmart the experts is a exercise in futility I submit.
Cheers
darky

[Vortech]

The key to ratings is to follow them exactly as they are given.
To try to outsmart the experts is a exercise in futility I submit.
Cheers
darky

True but with so many followers the value is gone.

[garyf]

I recently posted a system that has produced a profit for the last three years but I have only kept accurate records since Jan this year and the profit has been very encouraging if it holds up. It only received one comment which just suggests to me that most punters are only comfortable with the popular filters even if they lose using them.Hi Gunny.

I posted one as well it has been winning since i started checking back on the 22/05/2012.
About a month later i started posting updates but it was pretty boring,
To me anyway, so i just check in with an update every now and then.

It is easy to use requires no form and everything is free,
From a couple of sites.

The funny thing here is the average starting price was $3.96,
From the 22/05/2012-31/07/2012.

FROM 01/08/2012 -17/08/2012 THE AVERAGE DIVIDEND IS $4.20.

I am pretty much convinced i think Mark made similiar comments you,
Are pretty safe posting something here without affecting dividends.

Since i joined haven't been here a long time, i find,
Posting ideas rather than systems makes for better,
And interesting reading to people on a forum

This is the only one i have joined or contribute to.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[gunny72]

Agree vortech. I like this forum mainly to get and provide comment on ideas as well as to get stats from those generous members who have substantial databases.

I have done some analysis on the system I gave earlier. Since January the strike rate is 11% and the level stakes POT is 13%. With the progressive staking plan actually used the POT is 17%. This analysis is with real bets and putting on real money at the racetrack. I will just add that if there are two selections both are backed with half the stake. More than two selections forget the race.

Yesterday got two winners in br.

gunny

[gunny72]

Sorry it should be garyf. I am reading the messages too quickly.