Mechanical Systems ?? Don't Work

[enjay]

There have been heaps of discussions regarding mechanical systems. Here is one that you cannot say is back fitted as it only has 4 simple ideas which are used by most punters,


Race Distance: 1600 - 1600
Day of Week: 7 Sat
TAB Number: 1 - 3
Days to Last Start: 7 - 7

I will not post results but will say that for the past 2 years it has shown 26% POT with a 21% strike rate all states and tracks. A little fiddling will improve these figures.

I hope this creates some positive discussion as there has not been much of late relating to systems..

Enjay

[Vortech]

Remove the day criteria, add two filters (API and Age) - nice system

[UselessBettor]

Another twist on this is

Same Distance, Same Track, Same track conditions, 7 days last start and winner.

Basically any winners who won under the same conditions last week are likely to win again this week.

[darkydog2002]

I believe Baghwan posted this one a few years back.

[Vortech]

I believe Baghwan posted this one a few years back.
The original rules of this system makes a profit in 2012 and 2011 but a loss in 2007, 08, 09 and 2010.

[gunny72]

I suggested something like this a little while back. A good filter is that it must have had a spell in its 6 character form figures.

[Barny]

LSW
7 Days
METRO
TAB 1 TO 3
1600m

LOT 12.57%

[Vortech]

Barny can you test with the additional filters API 1 to 3 and Age of horse 5-7

[Barny]

LOT 16.81%

[Vortech]

sorry last question. Comparing my data

What figures do you get from the period

1st Jan 2008 to 31st Dec 2012 - including api 1-3 and age 5-7

Regards

[Barny]

POT 13.75% with 48 selections. Pot needs the max div of 11.90 to get into profit.

[Vortech]

Is this Metro only

[Barny]

Yes it is .....

[Barny]

API 1 to 3 guarantees you get well fancied runners.

[Vortech]

These are the sample results I have

[Barny]

Sorry Vortech I mucked up.

Here's the correct version.

1Jan08 to 31Dec12
TAB 1 to 3
1600m
Age 5 to 7
METRO
Api 1 to 3

882 sel'ns
122 Winners
LOT 14.49%

[Vortech]

Don't forget DLS = 7

Sorry Vortech I mucked up.

Here's the correct version.

1Jan08 to 31Dec12
TAB 1 to 3
1600m
Age 5 to 7
METRO
Api 1 to 3

882 sel'ns
122 Winners
LOT 14.49%

[beton]

These are the sample results I have


1600m
Race Distance: 1600 - 1600
Venue: SMBAWXHN
Age of Horse: 5 - 7
TAB Number: 1 - 3
Days to Last Start: 7 - 7
Av Prizemoney Rank: 1 - 3

You will have to check what is METRO. You have (forgive if I am wrong) Sydney,Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth ,Other Metro, Hong Kong and New Zealand. If both results are correct then these extra venues are pumping.

Saw the bit about the DLS, Still check the venues

[Vortech]

This is right. Just a little test I did
Was happy with it as there was a consistent profit in each of the years from 2007 right through to 2012.

If you take out the X your results are better but there is no reason for it so I left it as is.

<table style="text-align: center;" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Bets</td><td>Wins</td><td>$Return</td><td>Outs</td><td>%SR</td><td>$Up</td><td>$Dn</td><td>%Up</td><td>%Dn</td><td>$Profit</td><td>%POT</td><td>IV </td><td>SR </td><td>POT</td></tr><tr><td align="left">A</td><td>11</td><td>1</td><td>23.2</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>12.2</td><td>111</td><td>0.48</td><td align="left"><table width="9%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="90%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">B</td><td>13</td><td>2</td><td>6.4</td><td>8</td><td>15</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-6.6</td><td>-51</td><td>0.81</td><td align="left"><table width="15%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="1%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">H</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>5.3</td><td>2</td><td>33</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>2.3</td><td>77</td><td>1.74</td><td align="left"><table width="33%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="77%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">M</td><td>18</td><td>4</td><td>14.6</td><td>8</td><td>22</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-3.4</td><td>-19</td><td>1.16</td><td align="left"><table width="22%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="1%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">N</td><td>97</td><td>20</td><td>122.2</td><td>21</td><td>21</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>25.2</td><td>26</td><td>1.08</td><td align="left"><table width="21%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="26%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">S</td><td>13</td><td>3</td><td>26.7</td><td>6</td><td>23</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>13.7</td><td>105</td><td>1.21</td><td align="left"><table width="23%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="90%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">W</td><td>41</td><td>11</td><td>101.3</td><td>5</td><td>27</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>60.3</td><td>147</td><td>1.40</td><td align="left"><table width="27%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="90%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">X</td><td>87</td><td>10</td><td>60.0</td><td>15</td><td>11</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-27.0</td><td>-31</td><td>0.60</td><td align="left"><table width="11%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="1%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">a</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>15.1</td><td>8</td><td>11</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>6.1</td><td>68</td><td>0.58</td><td align="left"><table width="11%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="68%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">b</td><td>14</td><td>2</td><td>10.6</td><td>7</td><td>14</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-3.4</td><td>-24</td><td>0.75</td><td align="left"><table width="14%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="1%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">m</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0.0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-4.0</td><td>-100</td><td>0.00</td><td align="left"><table width="1%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="1%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">s</td><td>8</td><td>2</td><td>9.3</td><td>4</td><td>25</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>1.3</td><td>16</td><td>1.31</td><td align="left"><table width="25%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="16%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td align="left">w</td><td>17</td><td>7</td><td>19.7</td><td>6</td><td>41</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>2.7</td><td>16</td><td>2.16</td><td align="left"><table width="41%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td><td align="left"><table width="16%"><tbody><tr><td bgColor="#0000ff" width="100%"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>




1600m
Race Distance: 1600 - 1600
Venue: SMBAWXHN
Age of Horse: 5 - 7
TAB Number: 1 - 3
Days to Last Start: 7 - 7
Av Prizemoney Rank: 1 - 3

You will have to check what is METRO. You have (forgive if I am wrong) Sydney,Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth ,Other Metro, Hong Kong and New Zealand. If both results are correct then these extra venues are pumping.

Saw the bit about the DLS, Still check the venues

[Barny]

Incl DLS = 7 then POT 8.8%

[enjay]

Good to see some valid replies on this subject.

I agree/disagree with a lot of the past testing results. I for one when setting up ideas only go back no more than 2 years.
Reason being that there have been so many changes to the racing industry of late that what is happening now, if it were in place 5 years ago, would make a difference to you results which have been posted in reply on this thread.

Here is another simple idea.

Horses aged 4-7 with last start 3-17 days One more filter that I will not divulge at this time. Those with **** will work it out with the analyser.

Last 2 years

WIN
Races Bet: 166
Races Won: 66
S.R./Race: 39.8%
Outlay($): 167.00
Return : 239.96
$ Profit : 72.96
% P.O.T. : 43.7%

Cheers
Enjay

[enjay]

I think I had better go to bed before I divulge any more of my simple ideas.

My last post has just been tested back for the past 4 years from today and all I can say is WOWOWOWOWOW!!!! The POT and Strike has been changed, but allowing for the changes as I have stated I am impressed. Naturally I will follow these on paper for 50 bets before I invest.

Last 4 years


Meetings considered : 8570
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 34.4%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 52.4%
Average Win Dividend : $3.36
Average Plc Dividend : $1.76

WIN
Races Bet: 316
Races Won: 109
S.R./Race: 34.5%
Outlay($): 317.00
Return : 366.76
$ Profit : 49.76
% P.O.T. : 15.7%

I am very happy with these results.

Regards

Enjay

[Vortech]

Nice work enjay

Good to see someone showing a profitable system with rules.[/QUOTE]

[Barny]

What has changed so dramatically in the last few years that would affect a decent system tested over 12 years ?? I have observed that there are certainly cycles in this caper, but there's cycles in everything.

I suppose training methods have changed where a horse can be set first up over a bit of distance. Weights have become compressed. But horses still have 4 legs and the fav still wins 30% of the time and LSW still win at the same rates they used to.

[Chrome Prince]

I agree Barny, a lot changes over the years, but many things are undisputably consistent.

[Vortech]

One noticeable change is the availability of data to many punters. The % of winners doesn't often change long-term just the price.

Common sense just isn't very common any more.

PS: Good to see you keep the ideas flowing Barny. Not much action around here anymore.

[Barny]

The % of winners doesn't often change long-term just the price.

I agree 100%. That's why a) You need to swim against the tide and as you say use some common sense and b) Either stick with a decent system and ride out the bad runs or be able to identify which season the system outperforms.

I'm certain the some systems outperform during the Melbourne Spring Carnival. I'm sure class would be to the fore more during this time of year.

[Lord Greystoke]

Yes -Some systems do out perform for the Melb Cup - have been using it last few years and it's track record is sound over many more years than this !

Looks like I will have to share the selections with the family this this time around - they weren't that happy last year when I returned the only winner for the dayin the cup and bought them a lolly bag bc I felt sorry for them!

LG

[Chrome Prince]

I would have been more than happy with a lolly bag last year :(

[beton]

Yes -Some systems do out perform for the Melb Cup - have been using it last few years and it's track record is sound over many more years than this !

Looks like I will have to share the selections with the family this this time around - they weren't that happy last year when I returned the only winner for the dayin the cup and bought them a lolly bag bc I felt sorry for them!

LG
I got a lolly bag last year. Thanks Dad you meany.

[The Ocho]

Yes -Some systems do out perform for the Melb Cup - have been using it last few years and it's track record is sound over many more years than this !

Looks like I will have to share the selections with the family this this time around - they weren't that happy last year when I returned the only winner for the dayin the cup and bought them a lolly bag bc I felt sorry for them!

LG
I don't suppose you can email me the Melbourne cup tips the night before the cup? I'm in a syndicate on cup day and we try and win running doubles and trifectas. Some good tips would be REALLY handy.

[Lord Greystoke]

You don't fancy the lolly bag instead?
Beton not a happy chappy on this one either.

Incidentally, there are only about 4-5 variables that seem to count largest when it comes to the big one in Nov. Wish I had known this back in the mid 80s - would've saved me hours, days crafting my Final Ratings onto flimsy photocopy of a Don S worksheet with just a pencil(lots of rub outs!) and the outdated tables at back of Winning & W More.

Who'd have dreamed up the abundance of info available today for free at the click of a finger, plus a round table of talent and wisdom to swap notes with 24/7?

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

I don't suppose you can email me the Melbourne cup tips the night before the cup? I'm in a syndicate on cup day and we try and win running doubles and trifectas. Some good tips would be REALLY handy.

No prob - if you remind me!

LG

[garyf]

I don't suppose you can email me the Melbourne cup tips the night before the cup? I'm in a syndicate on cup day and we try and win running doubles and trifectas. Some good tips would be REALLY handy.Here is one i read many moons ago.

All starting price favorites
All horses between $9.0-$15.0

NO IDEA IF THIS WAS (TOP-FLUCT)(PRE-POST)(ON-COURSE).

Nowadays you could get the prices from any of the corporates,
The night before back in the 90's when this was published they weren't around.

Knowing P.P.M the magazine probably meant pre-post.

I read it in a very early edition of P.P.M it got the winner,
That year it was the favorite no idea if it works now?.

Maybe include these horses in,
Your multiples can use any of,
The corporates the night before,
To get the selections.

Thought i better post it now as i will probably forget it come race time.

It probably might not work now as it is very old probably,
Read it in the early 90's from memory.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Vortech]

Since 1924 when barriers were introduced - barrier 18 is yet to have a winner.

Thats over 87 years of racing.

Must be lay system of the century!

[Barny]

Put a line through every overseas horse.

Put a line through every overseas jockey.

My work here is done !!!!

[TheSchmile]

Unless they're French, Irish or Japanese.

[Vortech]

Put a line through every overseas horse.

Put a line through every overseas jockey.

My work here is done !!!!
No bets this year

[jose]

LOL @ Vortech.

Only a matter of time before it's true I suppose!!!!!!!!

[The Ocho]

Thanks for your help guys. I'll try and remind you guys before The Cup.

[Vortech]

LOL @ Vortech.

Only a matter of time before it's true I suppose!!!!!!!!
Only 3 horses last year that were Australian.

[jose]

I know. Sad but true.

[Barny]

Getting back to the original thread ..... The results of this system put paid to a couple of thoughts that we slowly move to smaller divs as the smarties do their research and get on board. Well, this proves that in this case that theory is wrong. In fact it is apparent that this system has improved over the years.

What say you now ???

[TheSchmile]

Hi Barny,

My thoughts are that in many metro races with standard fields of 11-12, there are at least 3-6 genuine chances. Many upsets are related to pace and luck in running (ie when 'The Pumper' pulls their pants down) and the market often gets obsessed with one runner, pushing it way below its 'real price'. Look for these situations.

T.S.

[Star]

One noticeable change is the availability of data to many punters. The % of winners doesn't often change long-term just the price.

Common sense just isn't very common any more.

PS: Good to see you keep the ideas flowing Barny. Not much action around here anymore.

---------------

I wonder why!

[Vortech]

---------------

I wonder why!
Sometimes its a little like a form guide.
You have to filter the good and bad and make your own judgements.

Interesting a got an email from a friend the other day which raises a good point about the available data to the public. As you know 30% of favourites win long term. What factors are not available to the public would help increase this %.

A couple point raised include

a. The weight of the horse
b. Cardiovascular fitness of the horse
c. Blood count
d. Trainers intentions.

The debate around following the crowd was also discussed. I know many a firm believers of this, but I think with many traditional filters out there the profiting from the crowd is long gone.

New methodologies need to be created while looking for the different questions against the available data.

[beton]

Interesting a got an email from a friend the other day which raises a good point about the available data to the public. As you know 30% of favourites win long term. What factors are not available to the public would help increase this %.

A couple point raised include

d. Trainers intentions.

.
This time of the year throws up the question "what are the owners / trainers intentions?' I was speaking yesterday to an owner whose horse has won last 3 starts.
The intention is to travel for a prestigious Cup race. It was rested even though it was at its fittest. Trialed Monday and bolted home. They plan to give it a race in 3 weeks then 10 days to the race that they are getting it ready for. There in is the problem. Do they race to win, and have too much weight to carry, or do they race for conditioning. The ROCK - The HARD PLACE. All owners want a horse to win, having a horse that wants to win is what they yearn for. Try and tell that horse not to win raises a lot of eyebrows. The owner is hoping that the horse does not get penalized too much and hopes the horse get a legitimate check or gets boxed in.

In the next two months most races in the upper class races are full of horses that are being prepared for prestigious events rather than bread and butter events.