Newbie Place System

[Luxinterior]

Here's a basic place betting system using UselessBettor's much appreciated site.
Tried to keep the amount of filters to only a few.
Kind of new to systems so feedback is most welcome.

The Rules used were :
Price Rank <= 2
API Rank <= 2
Don Scott Rank <= 2
Career Races between 5 and 10

1480 selections in 1428 races.
999 Placegetters
$2402.78 returned.
Profit of $922.78

SR 67.5%
POT 62.35%

[The Ocho]

As no one else has commented yet I thought I would give it a go.

If that is correct, that is a fantastic system however, a word of warning - UB's place data sometimes doesn't seem to be correct. You would need him to verify those results.

The other thing that I find with a lot of systems posted on here is that it will take you all day just to work out your bets.

The Rules used were :
Price Rank <= 2
API Rank <= 2
Don Scott Rank <= 2
Career Races between 5 and 10

What's that, 3 or 4 points of reference FOR EVERY RACE just to see IF you have a selection? The way I see it, you would have to write down all the top 2 don scott ranked horses, check whether they have had between 5-10 starts each, check their API rank (I'm not sure what this is or where you get it) and then sit in front of the computer all day and hope that they are in the top 2 in price rank OR input all the qualified selections into a bot with a setting to only bet if they are in the first 2 favourites (which will take forever to input if you have a lot of them anyway).

That's a BIG job. If you can somehow automate everything then you'd probably be onto something (if UB's data is correct).

I don't mean to bring you down but if you wanna go for it then good luck. Please keep us informed of how you are going.

[rails run]

Racing & Sports members can create their own form guide on every gallops race. It puts up a table of contents that the user can tick for what info they want listed. You then just print off your customised form guide. It will cover most of the filters mentioned.

[Stix]

Racing & Sports members can create their own form guide on every gallops race. It puts up a table of contents that the user can tick for what info they want listed. You then just print off your customised form guide. It will cover most of the filters mentioned.
Correct rails run, but would take a lot of work each day though to place the bets...and you'd need to be very disciplined..

I'd be interested to know if you could break it down to Wed & Sat races and you'd need a bot, even doing over the net close to jump time the servers get busy...I'missed a few winners at the last minute, but I have been able to get on a lot of losers at the last minute :o

[Shaun]

My sheet could do all that, would just need to add the Don Scott info, not to hard to do.

You would then need to check the runner before the off.

Would take about 1 minute per venue to come up with the qualifiers.

[Lord Greystoke]

Career Races between 5 and 10



Why this one, Luxinterior?

LG

[rails run]

Correct rails run, but would take a lot of work each day though to place the bets...and you'd need to be very disciplined..

I'd be interested to know if you could break it down to Wed & Sat races and you'd need a bot, even doing over the net close to jump time the servers get busy...I'missed a few winners at the last minute, but I have been able to get on a lot of losers at the last minute http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/redface.gifYes, a bot would be best if you can't sit at the computer all day.

Here is a customised formguide from R&S for Cessnock race 1 today. It provides the API, DS rating and career starts. The qualifiers can be highlighted early then loaded into the bot to be placed if 1st or 2nd in Price Rank, say, 10sec's before the jump.
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normbold><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Patinack Farm Mdn Hcp $15,000</TD><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" align=right>1550m</TD></TR><TR class=normsml><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px">GOOD 3 API:0.41</TD><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" align=right>12:48 pm</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=normbold vAlign=top><TD width=15 align=right>TAB</TD><TD width=90><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normbold vAlign=top><TD>HORSE </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=40 align=right>API</TD><TD width=35 align=right>FR</TD><TD width=45 align=right>Div</TD><TD width=45 align=right>Car</TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>1 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Analeica </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.89 </TD><TD align=right>24 </TD><TD align=right>$14.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-1-4 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>2 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Our Glenora Star </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.07 </TD><TD align=right>10.5 </TD><TD align=right>$501.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-0-4 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>3 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Run Legless </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.86 </TD><TD align=right>27 </TD><TD align=right>$5.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-6-14 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>4 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Fille De France </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.57 </TD><TD align=right>15 </TD><TD align=right>$501.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-0-5 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>5 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Red Boy </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.69 </TD><TD align=right>27.5 </TD><TD align=right>$4.80 </TD><TD align=right>0-1-3 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>6 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Ringthebellringo </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.17 </TD><TD align=right>6 </TD><TD align=right>$501.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-1-6 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>7 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Cassandra'S Choice </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.14 </TD><TD align=right>22.5 </TD><TD align=right>$31.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-0-5 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>8 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Fearless Phantom </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.18 </TD><TD align=right>15 </TD><TD align=right>$501.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-1-8 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>9 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Mossie Belle </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.51 </TD><TD align=right>20 </TD><TD align=right>$101.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-3-15 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>10 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>One More Zero </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.30 </TD><TD align=right>19 </TD><TD align=right>$201.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-1-10 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>11 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Where Izzy </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.46 </TD><TD align=right>26.5 </TD><TD align=right>$6.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-3-11 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>12 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Young Blakjak </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.36 </TD><TD align=right>27.5 </TD><TD align=right>$4.80 </TD><TD align=right>0-1-14 </TD></TR><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD align=right>E13 </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=normsml vAlign=top><TD>Eirejack </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=right>0.08 </TD><TD align=right>16.5 </TD><TD align=right>$501.00 </TD><TD align=right>0-0-7 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[norisk]

The Rules used were :
Price Rank <= 2
API Rank <= 2
Don Scott Rank <= 2
Career Races between 5 and 10

1480 selections in 1428 races.
999 Placegetters
$2402.78 returned.
Profit of $922.78

SR 67.5%
POT 62.35%

I've lost count of the number of place systems I've played around with & don't want to be a downer but highly suspect there results cannot be even vaguely accurate, just too good to be true esp about price rank <=2 selections, hope I am wrong

[Chrome Prince]

Here are the results of laying all horses for the place with no filters:

There were 100095 selections for the System
There were 10393 races for the System
There were 70857 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 70.79%
You had to pay out $119513.83 but brought in $93588.825 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $-25925.005 or a percentage profit/loss of -25.9%

A quick look shows this cannot possibly be correct.

[Luxinterior]

Why this one, Luxinterior?

LG
A far smarter punter than me once said career starts are far more important than age when it comes to rating chances. That was a starting point.

The small 5 start window (5-10 starts) comes from wanting to have the selections concentrated to a certain type of horse.
Lightly raced (unless they are 2yo of course).
Less likely to be carrying injury.
Hopefully any shin soreness, coltish traits or immaturity has been dealt with in the first five starts.
Also, in the first few starts the horse has shown enough to qualify for this system being top two in DS ratings, has a high API relevant to the event being assessed and is in the top two in the market.

I have trialled a first up system that also seems to favour these lightly raced types even though its filters are different to this system.

[Luxinterior]

I've lost count of the number of place systems I've played around with & don't want to be a downer but highly suspect there results cannot be even vaguely accurate, just too good to be true esp about price rank <=2 selections, hope I am wrong
Hmm.....
$2402.78 / 999 placegetters = ave return of $2.40...... on price rank <=2 selections.
Surely impossible.


The same filters when run for the WIN come up with
1480 selections
501 winners
SR: 33.85%
LOT: 0.44%
Ave return: $2.95

[norisk]

Indeed Lux

[garyf]

If you are using the customized form guide in the R+S and,
Including A.P.I as a feature you may want to check again(Not 12 months)

I was using this years ago but due to so many errors went elsewhere.

Race 7 Cessnock A.P.I. as they should be,
The brackets are R+S if you included as on the customized worksheet.

1-1576 (1575)
2-1656 (1656)
3-1986 (1986)
4-1790 (1314)
5-1904 (1592)
6-1216 (1217)
7-2002 (1477)
8-1068 (1445)
9-2559 (1622)
10-1119 (1259)
11-987 (988)
12-1098 (872)
13-1610 (1084)
14-1065 (1134)

I remember ringing them years ago to tell them the problem,
Not sure if this would affect the Neurals if this is how they are sourced, Looks like they haven't got around to it yet.

This is just 1 race as it is (1 of 5) bettable races for me today,
I haven't checked anything else today.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Lord Greystoke]

Logic looks sound - an interesting angle, Lux.

Cheers LG

[Luxinterior]

On R+S there are three average PM settings in the customized worksheet.

CarPM - Average career prizemoney per start
12mPM - Average prizemoney per start earnt in the last 12 months
API - $1000 of dollars won per start

Unless i'm reading them incorrectly the API one seems to be off the mark on most runners.

Cessnock Race 7
# - API - (Car$)
1 - 1.97 - (1575)
2 - 0.61 - (1656)
3 - 0.39 - (1986)
4 - 1.20 - (1314)
5 - SCR - (1592)
6 - 1.49 - (1217)
7 - 0.98 - (1477)
8 - 1.72 - (1446)
9 - SCR - (1622)
10 - 1.80 - (1259)
11 - 1.30 - (988)
12 - 1.54 - (872)
13 - 0.63 - (1084)
14 - 0.84 - (1134)