Number 1

[Pete the punter]

For the last 2 weeks I have been entering results into my database, I have been noticing that of late there has been quite a few TAB NUMBER 1 horses winning at very big odds, considering that the top weight is meant to be the better horse, thus the highest weight, it's suprising to see the prices that are showing up, has anyone had a system to look at selecting the number one horse before

pete

[The Ocho]

UB's system tester since August last year:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 8679 selections for the System
There were 8679 races for the System
There were 1370 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 15.79%
There were $7828.91 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-850.09 or a percentage profit/loss of -9.79%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : horseNumber = 1

I'm not sure if it has been updated in the last 2 weeks but I don't think the recent winners would make too much of a difference.

[UselessBettor]

It is usually the most overbet horse in the race but of course this is a general statement. There are times when they are underbet as you have seen.

Using my site you can see Number had

There were 8679 selections for the System
There were 8679 races for the System
There were 1370 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 15.79%
There were $7828.91 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-850.09 or a percentage profit/loss of -9.79%


Horse 2


There were 8726 selections for the System
There were 8726 races for the System
There were 1243 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 14.24%
There were $7952.4 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-773.6 or a percentage profit/loss of -8.87%
Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php) The Rules used were : horseNumber = 2

Horse 3:



There were 8756 selections for the System
There were 8756 races for the System
There were 1131 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 12.92%
There were $8477.37 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-278.63 or a percentage profit/loss of -3.18%
Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php) The Rules used were : horseNumber = 3

Horse Number 8:



There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 7897 selections for the System
There were 7897 races for the System
There were 703 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 8.9%
There were $7341.28 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-555.72 or a percentage profit/loss of -7.04%
Test Another System (http://testyoursystem.000space.com/TestSystem.php) The Rules used were : horseNumber = 8





I'll let you run other numbers but above I have chosen saddle clothes 2,3 and 8. As you can see all of these numbers do better then saddle cloth 1.

[The Ocho]

TAB 1, NR=1 & DS=1

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 724 selections for the System
There were 724 races for the System
There were 251 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 34.67%
There were $772.97 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $48.97 or a percentage profit/loss of 6.76%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : horseNumber = 1 and nrRank = 1 and donScottRank = 1

[Pete the punter]

Thanks,

Might see if there may be some other filters that may be used, I not going to dive in too deep, as it was just something i noticed as i was entering data.

Pete

[bernie]

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 609 selections for the System
There were 609 races for the System
There were 216 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 35.47%
There were $677.42 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $68.42 or a percentage profit/loss of 11.23%


The Rules used were : horseNumber = 1 and nrRank = 1 and donScottRank = 1 and daysLastStart <= 21

[Vortech]

There was an good system I had on my laptop which backed the TAB 1 from Barrier one at certain track/distances

The Barrier one had a bias advantage particularly over the 1000m.

If interested I can send through the track/distances.

[Pete the punter]

Thanks Vortech but not at the moment, like i said i have another selection process i'm using at the moment, which i'd like to focus on, as it's running on a good POT and Strike rate. I may take you up on the offer at a later date when i have some time to spare.

Pete

[Vortech]

Keep an eye on motspur at br2 h1 from barrier. Huge advantage at doomben @ 1200m.

[darkydog2002]

Here,s one from the Author Albert Kent.

2 YO
Top Weight
Fav
Won LS
Same distance as LS
Same Jockey

Cheers
darky

[Barny]

There was an good system I had on my laptop which backed the TAB 1 from Barrier one at certain track/distances

The Barrier one had a bias advantage particularly over the 1000m.

If interested I can send through the track/distances.
Roy Higgins said he'd take Barrier ONE anyday, even in the Melbourne to Warnambool bike race. An under-rated filter.

[The Ocho]

UB's Barrier 1 stats

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 8751 selections for the System
There were 8746 races for the System
There were 1055 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 12.06%
There were $7995.17 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-755.83 or a percentage profit/loss of -8.64%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : barrier = 1

[bernie]

But The Ocho, if barrier 1 is the favourite in non maiden races we get a positive result.



There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 755 selections for the System
There were 755 races for the System
There were 277 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 36.69%
There were $806.63 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $51.63 or a percentage profit/loss of 6.84%


The Rules used were : barrier = 1 and priceRank < 90 and priceRank = 1 and careerWins >= 1

.

[Pete the punter]

I have used Bernie's method below DS=1, NR=1, DLS <=21
I have left out maidens, races where horses have never had a start and races with less than 8 runners

picks for Saturday 25/8 are

Belmont Rc3
Belmont Rc4
Doomben Rc4
Gold Coast Rc5
Newcastle Rc6
Newcastle Rc8

Let's see how they go for interest sake.

Pete

[aussielongboat]

I've always ( probably wrongly) held the view that a bad barrier just improves the price.

[Vortech]

I've always ( probably wrongly) held the view that a bad barrier just improves the price.
And why Barriers 20 to 24 have the lowest strike rates but have a positive POT

[ubetido]

Vortech

Would be interested in the tracks that have a BARRIER ONE bias. Have done some research myself on this. Interested to see if we agree with tracks.

Regards
U

[Barny]

UB's Barrier 1 stats

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 8751 selections for the System
There were 8746 races for the System
There were 1055 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 12.06%
There were $7995.17 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-755.83 or a percentage profit/loss of -8.64%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : barrier = 1
It's not possible to have more selections than races for barrier 1.

[beton]

It's not possible to have more selections than races for barrier 1.
Most likely late scratchings.

[Vortech]

Vortech

Would be interested in the tracks that have a BARRIER ONE bias. Have done some research myself on this. Interested to see if we agree with tracks.

Regards
U
I'm trying to find the data on my laptop
I know Doomben 1000m was one.
I basically used R&S and the barrier stats
The 1000m there is a 10% stronger strike rate than any other barrier.