Tatts Bet Late Mail

[Star]

I hve always had a close interest in the Late Mail. But I wonder how it performs against the Favourite and Most fancied by the tipsters.

I think it has a benefit, but how much I do not know. Quite a few are not the favourite, so let's see what the consensus is.

[The Ocho]

In April this year I thought I would check the late mail tips. I only did it for 14 days but I found that if no commission was subtracted and using Unitab prices you would of won +$111.50 LAYING all late mail selections.

It was reduced to winning +$14.40 for laying if it was also the 100 rater, +$29.70 laying if it was also the fav and -$0.50 laying the late mail if it was also the 100 rater AND the fav.

Pretty small sample size (473 bets) but there you go.

[TWOBETS]

[QUOTE=
Pretty small sample size (473 bets) but there you go.[/QUOTE]

Interesting stats none the less TO.

I've often wondered about the LM tip when it is not mentioned by the radio or guest tipster. I've got no records but it just seems to come home well often???

[Star]

[QUOTE=
Pretty small sample size (473 bets) but there you go.Interesting stats none the less TO.

I've often wondered about the LM tip when it is not mentioned by the radio or guest tipster. I've got no records but it just seems to come home well often???[/QUOTE]
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I agree with Twobets. Which is why I bought it up. But sometimes appearances is not reality.

So I guess it might need further research.

[The Ocho]

The good thing with this sort of system is that it is readily researchable as all the info is there on Tattsbet (Unibet) going back a number of years which is not the case with say the R&S site for checking of other things.

That's all I did at the time - Just went through every race in Australia for a period of time (it was part in February and part in April now that I look a little deeper) and came up with that.

I never looked to see if they weren't tipsters picks or not.

[UselessBettor]

When the late mail is not any other tipsters selection the results are approx a loss of 22%. (1770 total bets)

That is based on tatts odds only.

[UselessBettor]

Thought I would add as a whole Late Mail selections lose 16% over 31,398 selections.

That seems in line with most favs so you couldn't make a profit laying these on betfair.

[letsbet]

how do they go in QLD only ;)

[UselessBettor]

Same, a loss of 16% over 6136 selections.

[jose]

Be very careful with Late Mail selections.

A mate of mine was shares in a horse that was with a certain well known Brisbane stable a while back and it was due to have it's first start.
The trainer told them that it was no real chance and they should keep their powder dry for another day.
Lo and behold it comes up as the Late mail special for the day.
Finished down the track at a very short quote.

Don't know where the tipster got the info from, but it was way wide of the mark.

Further to the above story, the leader of the syndicate that was handling the $$$$ for everyone wasn't passing it on to the trainer, so the trainer more or less bushed the horse into a paddock at his place waiting for the fees.
The horse didn't start again, even though it seemed to have some ability.

Couple of lessons there folks.

[Star]

Thanks for all the replies, to be truthful I thought that the Late Mail was pretty good but I never really took much notice when they lost and I thought they went ok.

Note to self. Have to be more dilligent in future.

Star

[jose]

Just tread VERY carefully is all.

[The Ocho]

And do some research. It's all there (for this system at least).

[Sportz]

A few years ago, I thought I noticed something. Didn't happen very often, but every now and then, a horse given out as a late mail tip would actually be ignored by the public and would start at $10+ on the TAB and some would get up. That little system seemed to do okay. Now, I'm guessing that was probably just a complete fluke and more than likely someone will come back with results that it's a big loser over time. But, depending on the results, it still could be something worth looking at and perhaps using in conjunction with other ideas???

Perhaps someone could look at the results of late mail tips in different TAB dividend ranges?

[UselessBettor]

I think those at $10 or more will be a greater loss due to the fav long shot bias which exists on the tote. But I'll check that price range for you.

[UselessBettor]

For the $10+ range there were 1620 selections and it lost 34% or a loss of around 548 units.

[Star]

For the $10+ range there were 1620 selections and it lost 34% or a loss of around 548 units.
Gee, even I with a quick glance at a form guide can come up with better then that result.

Still, I feel something might be missing from the equation. Now, it is true I only look at the treble races, maybe more research is done on that by the Late Mailers.

Generally, one of the three LM tips seems to win very often. Probably no way of checking that unless your data basis record all thathose facts.

Although I am surprised you can give the results of my original question. I am impressed.

I wonder if we only concentrated on Saturday's Metro races if the results are just as bad.

I just feel their is an angle in here somewhere for a quick fun system without doing your pants.

Star

[Star]

I think those at $10 or more will be a greater loss due to the fav long shot bias which exists on the tote. But I'll check that price range for you.
UB

Can you explain your statement for me about the favourite -- longshot bias on the tote.

I understand the Favourite part but the longshot intrigues me. Do you have definite figures or is it just that you have ancedotal evidence that this is so.

It is something I have never thought off, so it is quite interesting.

Star

[Sportz]

Now, I'm guessing that was probably just a complete fluke and more than likely someone will come back with results that it's a big loser over time.

As I suspected.

What was the time period you looked at?

[UselessBettor]

UB

Can you explain your statement for me about the favourite -- longshot bias on the tote.

I understand the Favourite part but the longshot intrigues me. Do you have definite figures or is it just that you have ancedotal evidence that this is so.

It is something I have never thought off, so it is quite interesting.

Star
Its well researched. The evidence shows (espeically with bookies and the tab's) that the favourites are underbet(more value) and the longshots are overbet (less value). This bias is eroded significantly on betfair though and it has been found to be non existant.

Personally I think it isn't eroded on betfair BUT its important to understand which markets it is and isn't affecting. Any market which is not close to 100% is definitely not worth trying to use it on. But those closer to 100% do on occassions follow very similar pricing to the tabs, which suggests that it still exists if the weight of dumb money is available. Generally though on betfair the dumb money is not available in large enough quantities for it to be taken advantage of.

[Star]

[QUOTE=UselessBettor]Its well researched. The evidence shows (espeically with bookies and the tab's) that the favourites are underbet(more value) and the longshots are overbet (less value).

Vey interesting and thank You. It is the opposite of what I had been basing my criteria on.

Star

[UselessBettor]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

That gives a very quick rundown and a link to a few papers. Just google "fav long shot bias" and you will find lots of academic papers on it.

[Star]

Thanks for that link UB. It has blown my stratergy right out of the water. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

Maybe now I can put some distance between me and the soup kitchen and can book into the Ritz.

Star