Testing Barrier positions

[lomaca]

Need help to confirm my findings.

Someone mentioned that certain tracks/distances/bPos combos are profitable in their own right.

I tested all tracks/distances/bpositions separately up-to BP 12 and found nothing of the sort.

If anyone found a track/distance/barrier position combination showing promise, doesn't have to win, just losing a little, without any other filters, and willing to let me know I'd be grateful and check it again and compare with my results in case I made a mistake, unlikely, but anything is possible.

No need for the distance or BP just the track name.

In return I'd be happy to offer my findings for all tacks.
Knowing the % advantage of different BP can tip the balance of choosing one runner over the other when all other things are equal.

I tested all races I have results for, since 2000 and despite over 11 years, some minor provincial and country tracks have few races once they are broken down by distance. Not surprising really some only have a few meetings a year.

If anyone interested good, if not, also good.
Thank you

[kiwiz]

Thoroughbred racing or red hots?

[lomaca]

Thoroughbred racing or red hots?At this stage gallops only but can test box returns for a year or so for dogs, but they are pretty much available anyway.
Thanks

[kiwiz]

Oh ok
Horse racing not harness racing

[Vortech]

Doomben 1010m barrier one

[norisk]

Also came up dry many years ago when investigating track/barrier relationships, so I just go with - the ranker the barrier posy, the longer the price, makes it harder but doesn't prevent them for winning on occasion.

[Luxinterior]

Happy Valley
Inside six gates 1000m and 1200m.
Don't know if data is easily available or not.

Also, rail placement could have an effect on your results on some tracks.

[UselessBettor]

There are some interesting problems when analysing this over such a large timeframe. Some tracks have completely been rebuilt in that time. Some have moved the finishing post which alters the starting position.

These changes can have a big affect on the barrier bias in that it may move the starting position closer or further from the first corner. The further the starting stalls are from the first corner the less affect barriers have.

These sorts of things can be frustrating at times.

[lomaca]

There are some interesting problems when analysing this over such a large timeframe. Some tracks have completely been rebuilt in that time. Some have moved the finishing post which alters the starting position.

These changes can have a big affect on the barrier bias in that it may move the starting position closer or further from the first corner. The further the starting stalls are from the first corner the less affect barriers have.

These sorts of things can be frustrating at times.I can do it year to year so any sudden change would show up.

Luxinterior,
I have the results for HPV and SHA for at least a year.
so far I can't see any difference to any other track anywhere.

That's why I asked if anyone has a half decent result for any track to let me know so that I can check if I have made a mistake. ( don't think I did!)

Sometimes an anomaly jumps up, like Pakenham Barrier 8 at a distance almost breaks even, yes until you check and find, that there were three longshot winners, but barrier 7 and 9 are not following suit.

So you have to ask what's so different about bp 8? Nothing as it happens only the long shot winners which may never happen again.

I can accept that the inside barriers are better, no doubt, but there can't be any glaring difference between three outside barrier next to each other.

[UselessBettor]

Sometimes an anomaly jumps up, like Pakenham Barrier 8 at a distance almost breaks even, yes until you check and find, that there were three longshot winners, but barrier 7 and 9 are not following suit.

So you have to ask what's so different about bp 8? Nothing as it happens only the long shot winners which may never happen again.

Perhaps we are looking at it from the wrong viewpoint. What makes a barrier better ? the Odds returned by the horse are probably irrelevant as the barrier is probably taken into account by the punters.

You should probably concentrate on strike rate to be purely objective. But this doesn't help you much if its already taken into account by everyone else betting on the race.

[lomaca]

Happy Valley
Inside six gates 1000m and 1200m.
Don't know if data is easily available or not.

Also, rail placement could have an effect on your results on some tracks.I doubt that because they all still follow the same path.

I'd would rather go with UB's idea of different starting positions, like how far to the first turn etc.

It makes a lot of difference in greyhound racing.

The bottom line is, so far I could not find any winning BP but there is a definite % difference between barriers, not enough to profit from by itself, but in some situations it could be a decisive factor between backing a winner or a second.

[UselessBettor]

Actually the odds do matter.

They give us a real indication of the horses chances (which are affected by the barrier unfotunatly). What we should do for analysing the barrier at each distance is to get the chances of each horse winning (sum them up) and compare the difference to the actual wins.

This will tell you a much better idea of if the barrier gives an advantage. It will also show you whether there are any anomolies which can be taken advantage of by looking at sum vs actual ( barrier 12 or wider on a 1000m sprint at Hobart <--I just made this up and have no idea).

[lomaca]

Perhaps we are looking at it from the wrong viewpoint. What makes a barrier better ? the Odds returned by the horse are probably irrelevant as the barrier is probably taken into account by the punters.

You should probably concentrate on strike rate to be purely objective. But this doesn't help you much if its already taken into account by everyone else betting on the race.I take the BP into account in my ratings.

I undertook this exercise only to find out if a claim I saw on this or on an other forum had merit.

[lomaca]

Actually the odds do matter.

They give us a real indication of the horses chances (which are affected by the barrier unfotunatly). What we should do for analysing the barrier at each distance is to get the chances of each horse winning (sum them up) and compare the difference to the actual wins.

This will tell you a much better idea of if the barrier gives an advantage. It will also show you whether there are any anomolies which can be taken advantage of by looking at sum vs actual ( barrier 12 or wider on a 1000m sprint at Hobart <--I just made this up and have no idea).Do you honestly believe that there can be much difference between barriers 7, 8 and 9?

1 and 10 no doubt!

[UselessBettor]

Do you honestly believe that there can be much difference between barriers 7, 8 and 9?

1 and 10 no doubt!
No I agree, but by taking into account the horses chances vs actual results you are finding where the value may lie by eliminating (to a degree) the chances of longshots giving you false findings.

[lomaca]

No I agree, but by taking into account the horses chances vs actual results you are finding where the value may lie by eliminating (to a degree) the chances of longshots giving you false findings.True but that wasn't the purpose of this exercise, ONLY the barrier position someone claimed made the difference.

[Luxinterior]

A track where there is a short run to the first bend is the 1000m start at Colac in Victoria.
Not a heap of TAB meetings there so not sure if there'll be sufficient data or not.

[lomaca]

A track where there is a short run to the first bend is the 1000m start at Colac in Victoria.
Not a heap of TAB meetings there so not sure if there'll be sufficient data or not.Only 11 for both the 1000 and 1100 M

Since nobody can provide a genuine winning track/distance/barrier combo track to test, (or very wise to keep it to themselves) I close this.

I will run the test again and make a csv file and put it up for download in a few days.

[lomaca]

Doomben 1010m barrier oneGo here:http://www.mediafire.com/?myfiles

[Vortech]

Go here:http://www.mediafire.com/?myfiles
This is a free cloud storage?

[lomaca]

This is a free cloud storage?Supposed to be.

[Vortech]

Sorry I'm missing something here.

What am I meant to do with this?

[lomaca]

Sorry I'm missing something here.

What am I meant to do with this?can you open the site at all?
if so then click on the file you want to download and when the download button appears click on it.
I done upto barrier 10 for 1010Metres

[Vortech]

To download requires MediaPro @ $9.00 a month

The free version only allows files to be uploaded.

I understand the strike rate for Barrier one is around 18%.
Barrier two is around 12.5% from my records

[lomaca]

To download requires MediaPro @ $9.00 a month

The free version only allows files to be uploaded.

I understand the strike rate for Barrier one is around 18%.
Barrier two is around 12.5% from my recordstry this link
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?o7b1s1whkfr4src
that is barrier one

in case you can't get it here it is
"The free version only allows files to be uploaded."
what would be the of of that?

[lomaca]

try this link
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?o7b1s1whkfr4src
that is barrier one

in case you can't get it here it is
"The free version only allows files to be uploaded."
what would be the of of that?PS there were a few scratching for the barrier position, overall it will not affect the strike rate or return, although the return improves a little bringing barrier 1 at Doomben into a small profit but as I mentioned before you have to check why there is such a difference between adjacent barriers.

The reason is obvious there was a huge winner for barrier one, probably never happen again, or it will be an other barrier.
Who is going to wait for it?

Here is barrier 2 compare the results.

[lomaca]

PS there were a few scratching for the barrier position, Also some duplicate runners.
Fixed files with scratching an dups removed
Apologies

[lomaca]

A track where there is a short run to the first bend is the 1000m start at Colac in Victoria.
Not a heap of TAB meetings there so not sure if there'll be sufficient data or not.Colac barrier 1 for 1000 and 1100M

[Barny]

From an old post on this site ..... dont know whether this is accurate. I don't believe that barrier 1 on it's own would show a profit.
RESULT
Barrier - %
1 10
2 6
3 8
4 9
5 6
6 7
7 8
Top half 54%

8 3
9 5
10 7
11 5
12 7
13 6
14 7
Bottom Half 46%

Some observations
Barrier 1 produced a profit of 0.54%
Barrier 2 produced loss -26.9%
Barrier 10 produced a profit 3.54%
If you bet all 14 produced a loss of -26.9%
on turnover.

Interesting, considering if one backs Favs only, it would normally produces a -20% loss
ffice:office" /><O:p></O:p>

Even these figures are skewed because the outside barriers didn’t have as many runs as the inside barriers.

[garyf]

Interesting, considering if one backs Favs only, it would normally produces a -20% loss
fficehttp://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/redface.gifffice" /><O:p></O:p>

. The loss backing all favorites can be drastically reduced if you follow,
This method.

Smartform Latest Articles

Knowing what horses to back is obviously essential to becoming a winning punter. At some point in time we have all struggled to find and maintain confidence in the way we go about deciding our bets.

In fact, unless you currently consider yourself a "winning punter" then there's a good chance that you are still looking for a better, more effective way to make your selections.

One of the biggest challenges can be finding something that you have enough confidence to continue with when a losing run arrives. The volatile nature of betting means that you can suffer terrible losses for what seems an eternity, when in fact you are still doing everything right to deliver a long-term edge. The extent of these losing periods leads you to a logical conclusion that you must be doing something wrong, and you naturally look for something new.

If you don't have the confidence to stick with your approach then you will never win in the long-term. However if you don't know what you are doing actually works in the long-term, then you will never stick with it. It's a universal punting dillema.



That's what this article is all about... giving you the basis of an uncomplicated, efffective selection strategy that has stood the test of time. It's a strategy that you can find the courage to stick with during those confidence destroying losing periods, because the long-term performance is unquestionable.

If you aren't happy with your current approach then what I'm about to tell you could turn your punting fortunes around.

The question is though, are you prepared to believe in something so simple? Are you willing to follow it? Are you capable of forgetting about some of the biases that might have been holding you back all this time?



Here it is:




"The easiest way for any punter to win in the long-term is by backing metropolitan favourites."�







If you're first reaction to this statement is that I'm mad, then you have that bias I referred to above. You need to get rid of it!






The undeniable statistics

Over the last 7 years there has been more than 26,000 Metropolitan favourites return a 32.3% strike rate and just 3.8% loss using the best of SP and NSW Tab as the dividend.

What better starting point could you ask for? Why not use the intelligence of the market and it's tendency to be more generous with favourites (compared to other horses) to your advantage?



But wait, theres more...

The offer of bookmaker services like top fluctuation and "best of best" (which gives you the best of top fluctuation and the best tote) enables you to achieve a much better average winning dividend than the dividend these results are based on.

Just how much difference can that make?

Well based on s ample of 7,000 Metropolitan favourites which I have top flucation data for shows that you make an average of 5.0% more POT at top fluctuation than you do at best of SP and NSW Tab.

So if 26,000+ Metro favourites returned -3.8% at the best of SP and NSW Tab and you can do 5.0% better than that at top fluctation, thenyou stand to


make something like 1.2% POT, without doing any form study at all. If you include ˜best of best" products from some bookmakers then this figure would be even higher.

The advent of early fixed odds markets for Metropolitan races enables you to identify the favourite in the very large majority of races early enough to get top fluctuation bets on. Even if you end up on the 2nd favourite every now and again, it's not going to make that much difference to these overall figures... the sample is just too large.



A rock solid foundation

There's no carefully crafted rules here, no dodgy backfitting and no longshot winners to distort the results. It's simply the rock solid long-term performance of favourites and the nature of today's competitive betting markets that offer punters a winning price advantage. The ironic thing is that most punters are blissfully unaware of it and spend hours of time and effort each week to achieve inferior results.

To forge a decent profit for years to come all you need to do is find a way to eliminate those favourites that tend to underperform. That's your challenge to work on... I can'tgive you all the secrets to success. Your principles might be based on jockeys, run style, recent form or general race conditions.

Regardless of how you go about eliminating certain favourites, you can still bet with the confidence that at worst you will break square in the long-term and probably make a small profit. If you don't currently consider yourself a winning punter then just breaking square must be better than what you have been achieving in the past, most likely with much less time and effort as well.



Going forward

This is how simple the path to winning can be. If you aren't happy with your current approach then you don't need to make the game any more complicated then I have outlined here. All you need to worry about is sticking to Metropolitan favourites, getting a good price and focusing your time on eliminating those that tend to underperform.

You'll enjoy a better strike rate than you have in the past and most importantly, when things get tough you can generate the confidence to stick with it because of the unquestionable long-term performance of favourites.

It was following this type of approach many years ago that saw my punting fortunes take a huge turn for the positive and it can do the same for you. Of course I've now added many more aspects to my game that have seen my clients back one-out winners at as much as 60/1, but this is where it all started.

Despite how logical and effective this strategy is, there'll be some that just can't get over the mental hurdle of primarily backing favourites. Over the years we've all been conditioned to think that favourites are undesirable as betting propositions and that there's no glory in backing winners that everyone else is tipping. The truth is that this type of thinking is promoted by losers that don't have a clue of what they're talking about.

Let me tell you that the only glory in punting is making a long-term profit, however it's achieved. The choice is ultimately yours.




Cheers.
Garyf.

[garyf]

Whilst i am getting off Lomacas original thread i can tell you this.

Improving the strike rate of the previous article i posted will improve,
Even more if you take this into consideration.

R+S Website.
Speedmaps.

l-1
l-2
p-1
p-2
op-1
op-2.

There are other things this is just one of them.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[lomaca]

Whilst i am getting off Lomacas original thread i can tell you this.
Feel free Gary I'm finished with it anyway.
Nothing conclusive came out of it just as I expected.

[garyf]

Cheers Lomaca.


Sorry i couldn't help no data.

Gary.

[Vortech]

If the overall loss is 13% or whatever it is could you back metro fav and lay regional?

[Lord Greystoke]

How about...

Back barrier 1 if it is...
1. Fav - WIN
2. Tab No.1 - PLACE
3. 100 unitab - PLACE

UB's system tester is up the spout so cannot check results etc

LG

[UselessBettor]

How about...

Back barrier 1 if it is...
1. Fav - WIN
2. Tab No.1 - PLACE
3. 100 unitab - PLACE

UB's system tester is up the spout so cannot check results etc

LG
Stupid free hosts . When you get too many visitors they do this to the site so you have to pay big bucks. I'll have it up again tomorrow.

[Lord Greystoke]

Fwd me their address and I will send around the clockwork orange squad

LG

[The Ocho]

Thanks for that article garyf. Very interesting and I reckon I've read it somewhere before.

Does anyone have the definitive list of all metropolitan tracks and does that article take all the metro tracks into account?

Would it work with Betfair prices or BF SP?

Would this also be just a Saturday thing or would somewhere like Sandown on a Wednesday be counted?

Sorry for all the questions everyone but it would be good to know that I can just set the bot on backing the fave and just watch the moolah rolling in (in the long term at least).

[Barny]

Just to be clear garyf, it wasn't my comment. My post clearly states that it was from an old post on this site ..... and not one of mine.

[garyf]

Thanks for that article garyf. Very interesting and I reckon I've read it somewhere before.

Does anyone have the definitive list of all metropolitan tracks and does that article take all the metro tracks into account?

Would it work with Betfair prices or BF SP?

Would this also be just a Saturday thing or would somewhere like Sandown on a Wednesday be counted?

Sorry for all the questions everyone but it would be good to know that I can just set the bot on backing the fave and just watch the moolah rolling in (in the long term at least).Yep i posted the article a while back.

The 1.2% profit was gained by getting the top fluctuation,
Or by using other products like best of the best,or the best of 3 totes,
Or starting price it also mentioned other rules you may wish to add,
As in the 1.2% is a very fine line.

I have already given 1 set of filters re the R+S speedmaps.

This article covered all Metropolitan Favorites i believe.

I don't know if setting up a bot and betting on betfair is,
Going to give the advantage of making a profit compared,
To what the corporates are currently offering.

I can also tell you while Favorites win a certain % of races,And betting Metropolitan favorites at the better prices Caulfield is not as good as others.

Unfortunately like all things in racing when backing you will,
Get out of it what you put into it.

To me i would use this only as a starting point then look to improve it.
To set up a bot and back every metro favorite on betfair is doomed.

Maybe you could start every Friday Night by listing the Favorite,
That Mark Read "Sportsbet now" has and add some rules to,
Improve profitability, then take advantage of the offers for a best product.

This is what i think the article was intended for.

I posted the Prepost System based on the Opening Favorite with a couple of rules that when i looked last night is still making money.

To do what you want in setting up a bot in my opinion is doomed.

Put in nothing get out nothing.

Good luck with it whatever you decide.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Cheers.

[garyf]

Just to be clear garyf, it wasn't my comment. My post clearly states that it was from an old post on this site ..... and not one of mine.
Ok then, Favorites last time i checked lose around 12% all in.

Cheers.
Gary.