api win% pla%

[gunny72]

I have been playing around with api, win% and pla% and feel that they are equally important. Anyone any suggestions as to the relative importance of these figures?

[garyf]

Yes they are important.


I actually get better results by listing,
Their rankings rather than an individual figure.

This is more accurate for me as i bet in higher class,
Races and for me gives a more accurate guide.

Others may find the other way better.

I only include them as a filter to improve profits,
Not as an actual selection criteria however.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Barny]

I've found API 2 to 5 gives a better POT than including the top ranked API horse. I don't like the Place% as much as Win%, I think it's overdone.

[Star]

I've found API 2 to 5 gives a better POT than including the top ranked API horse. I don't like the Place% as much as Win%, I think it's overdone.
I do not have anything to offer, but to acknowledge the above by Barny.

I am having no luck with any of the filters I use, infact they all appear to be a winner in a lay system.

eg. A horse at Mornington today was the only qualifier in the race. Yep, you guessed it. It was gone six hundred metres from home and was tailed off at the finish.

Star

[Shaun]

All form is suspect this time of year.

[Bhagwan]

I have found that its not a bad idea to ignore the Top ranked API because it always seems to struggle just to break even & is usually very lowly priced.

[darkydog2002]

In the latest Propun Newsletter there is a API system that might interest.

Cheers

[Vortech]

From Bet Selector

The best POT for Win% is between 61 to 70%. Around a 7% loss

The best POT for Place% is between 81 to 90%. 9% loss

[darkydog2002]

Vortech,
A good base.
Thank you.

[Barny]

From Bet Selector

The best POT for Win% is between 61 to 70%. Around a 7% loss

The best POT for Place% is between 81 to 90%. 9% loss
I get 14.06% LOT for between 60 and 70% Win S/R.

I recently tested a system posted on here that claimed a 155% POT ..... I got a 20.16% LOT. I think some databases just like handing out good news !!!!!

[darkydog2002]

Hi Barny,
And some the bad news.
Hope you were on the "Gravy Train " with my daily 2 races today.
1 race to come but the 1st race I took the $13.

For your interest I,ve posted the selections for the 2 BEST systems in the World on the Tipping contest thread.

Whats that."Let me at em"?

[Vortech]

As I said its 61% to 70% inclusive

I tested for the period of 2011 only.

[gunny72]

I am really after suggestions re the relative importance or weightings, eg, api 40%, win% 25%, pla% 35%, to use in my ratings.

[Barny]

Fitness would have to be No 1

[gunny72]

Agree Barny, but how do you measure it? By one's own judjement is the only way I can think of. The old idea of a fitness book is too difficult these days.

[moeee]

If you are not prepared to work hard , or have someone else do it for you , then you can't expect to get the rewards that come with it.

[mattio]

The difficult thing about fitness is how do you accurately measure it? Each horse is different and requires different amounts of work to reach peak fitness and then you have different training methods to consider. Distance also comes into play as you don't have to be as fit for sprints as you do for staying races so there are many variables to take into account.

[moeee]

you don't have to be as fit for sprints as you do for staying races.
I see.
I would have thought it was equally important.
I guess its because I only study greyhounds.
Must be different with horses.

Good Luck

[Barny]

Agree Barny, but how do you measure it? By one's own judjement is the only way I can think of. The old idea of a fitness book is too difficult these days.
I think you have to know the horse intimately, know the trainer's plans and follow the trials and trackwork. It's the hardest part of racing, but as they say "If it was easy, everyone would be doing it".

[darkydog2002]

The cost of having a good Professional do it for you is either Free or miniscule.
Winning money is not so hard if one uses the right sources.

And you all know the right sources I,m talking about.
I,m mentioned them often enough.

The only thing missing is the intellectual challenge and to me thats the fun part of the racing game.

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

i.e A 2 minute search of a free site brings up a rated odds on horse currently available on Unitab $5.50 Fixed
Belmont R 4 H 4 November Red.

"All aboard the Gravy Train"

[mattio]

What do you like about that horse today DD?

[darkydog2002]

The only reason I put $100 on it was it was rated by one of the best Professionals Australia has ever produced and I respect his opinion highly.
If he,s rated it odds on there,s a very good reason for it.
Cheers
darky

[mattio]

Fair enough, can I ask who it was that rated it odds on? How do they normally perform on WA meetings?

[darkydog2002]

Malcolm K @inracing.Has a Free daily meeting every day.
Not sure of his strike rate in WA as I rarely bet there.

Well worth checking in each day for those rated odds on chances.

Malcolm trained under the Master Handicapper Warren Block and has a huge data base.

Cheers
darky

ps Fingers crossed.November Red is a massive overlay @$5.50

[mattio]

Ok, I'll check him out. Good luck, personally I rated that horse at double figures so I'll gladly eat humble pie if it bolts in..lol

[darkydog2002]

Yeah r+s have it rated @$41.
I,ll take the risk though.

[mattio]

Wow, he rates Darlington Abbey a $21 chance?!?! Am I reading that right DD?

[The Ocho]

I can't download the PDF files from there dd. The only thing I can download is something that doesn't open up properly.

[moeee]

Yeah r+s have it rated @$41.

I don't understand how 2 so-called informed analysts can get so wildly different results.
One of them has no idea what they are doing - OR BOTH???

[darkydog2002]

We shall see whose correct in the end though.
My thoughts are that Malcolm uses speed/wt ratings combined and r+s just use Wt Ratings.
A number of factors will vary between both rating services.
For me it is a opportunity not to pass up.

How was the holiday by the way?

[lomaca]

I can't download the PDF files from there dd. The only thing I can download is something that doesn't open up properly.it will open in notepad but you can import it into Excel as a text file comma delimited, that's what its's for

[The Ocho]

Thanks Iomaca but I still can't open it properly. There are just horse names and numbers all over the shop. When I click on open with excel there is no option to open it in csv format.

Why don't the PDF files work though?

[moeee]

How was the holiday by the way?
Fine - Thanks for asking.

I managed to increase My Voucher by a substantial amount.
Sorry I couldn't share my success with fellow members.
Hopefully now that I am back , everyone can benefit.
Only thing is , I seem to have returned just as a Losing Streak has commenced.

The Voucher

Peak $8,932
Current $8,830
Loss -$103

[lomaca]

Thanks Iomaca but I still can't open it properly. There are just horse names and numbers all over the shop. When I click on open with excel there is no option to open it in csv format.

Why don't the PDF files work though?I said it has to be "imported" it will not open automatically because it's a template file used by his subscribers.

See if I can upload the pdf it works for me.
Sorry had to zip it, it's too large otherwise, but I hope you can unzip it.

[mattio]

Well done DD, Mal was on the money with that one.

[moeee]

Post Moderated following a TOU. Please refer to members by their correct Names. You have been warned about this in the past. No more warnings. Take care. Thank you. Moderator.

[The Ocho]

Yes well done DD. Got out to $250 in running on BF. Got a couple of bucks on it at $9.20. :)

Thanks Iomaca. The PDF worked but I'm buggared if I know why it won't download for me.

[jose]

Top job DD.
Hope you got some.

[moeee]

Top job DD.
Hope you got some.
He did
he had a hundred bucks on it.

Ain't it peculiar - with all that FREE and liberal advertising of what musta been the Overlay of the year , not a single soul was influenced to back it as it blew out to pay well over $6 ( yes Ocho , u did)

Just seems to show how stubborn Punters are in the own Pride and Beliefs.

[mattio]

I wouldn't say its stubborn moeee, for me it was simply a matter of I had no clue about who the analyst was and I am not the type to jump on a "good thing" without researching where the tip came from first.

Well done to DD though, he follows the analyst and has success with him.

[moeee]

Well if you have faith and belief in your own Methods , and it is proving fruitful Mattio , then there is no reason why you should be swayed.
I know with my methods , i'm always prepared to have a look and modify My Markets at least a little based on somebody elses research.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks fellers,
Only too pleased to put you onto a good thing.
Cheers
darky