Can I ask a simple question....

[Lord Greystoke]

Curious as to people's thoughts on the following Q...

How does a return on investment of 5-10% sound to you for the year?
OR put another way, POT = 10% with the bank turning over x1 ?

This would be net of commission, tax etc

Attractive
Boring
Impossible
Easy
Madness

?

Cheers LG

[moeee]

Boring

[Vortech]

Attractive.

Diversify all your investments in life

[norisk]

If talking about property/shares then - attractive

If talking the punt - no thanks;)

[Barny]

I would need a potential POT around 75% for the punt.

Term Dep is 5%+

The stock market, depending on your risk level is as dangerous as the punt. All the attractive yield stocks are now overbought. I'm in to one speccy, and have been for quite a while which is yielding 100% patience ..... CTP. BHP has always been good and I'd hope for 10% over the next year at these levels.

Ya need big money to be able to hold real estate as well as other investments.

If I had to put all my eggs into one basket I'd go for a couple of speccy's owning elephant country on the stock market and have a time frame of 5 to 10 years.

[AngryPixie]

Easy (but boring)

Frankly if you can't make 5-10% of your punting bank in a 12 month time frame you really need to give it away.

[moeee]

Easy (but boring)

Frankly if you can't make 5-10% of your punting bank in a 12 month time frame you really need to give it away.
And then take up what? - knitting?
I find the Form study , although time consuming , great amusement.
There is always the potential to be able to inprove your skills and to reach and surpass that 5%.

[ianian]

From the punt I am not that interested in the turnover figure but the higher the better. The goal for me is about bank size, money management and selection method. When all combined if you can achieve 20% to 30 % on your bank per year and compound this especially at level stakes while being very risk adverse by over capitalizing your bank would suit me fine.

[ianian]

If you can turn your money over once make 10% on turn over and win 20 points a year with a high strike rate on shorter horses -$5000 a bet after building you bank over a few years would be a nice earn also.

[Lord Greystoke]

Easy (but boring)

Frankly if you can't make 5-10% of your punting bank in a 12 month time frame you really need to give it away.

I take your point regards professionals.

The reality for most (95%?) of 'punters' however would be taking a LOT of 75-100% over time?


Cheers LG

[moeee]

So Ianian , are you achieving anything remotely like what you posted?

[ianian]

No the best I have been able to achieve in the past has been 6% on turn over but given points won and considered risk I was never happy with this and had better thing to do with my time and money. But currently own no shares or property and may not for a while so over the last year have decided to return to racing to occupy my mind and time.

I have a fav system I used for a few years did alright and will post rules after exploring current B.F/C system on other post. But have two current systems that show great potential but as some says if its still goes to the track it’s not yours. To me racing is a business with its own risk and so long as you manage that risk it can be quite fun, it only gets boring once you have created the plan because it should become rinse and repeat just turning over money with out doing any damage to anything else you do and as I make more money doing other things in this case interest which is as boring as it gets. So I always start with a small bank by my comparisons- as you remember a lot better if you use real money. So if what I am doing now pans out and makes enough to keep my interest I will make the time to pursue it if not. I am also a fan of things you can do on the internet such as investing because it can be done from anywhere.

[Shaun]

I am worried for a few on here who have no real idea of what expectations they should have.

[moeee]

Thank you for your answer Ianian.
Is good to read something that appears an honest appraisal of a fellow members travels , instead of the unsubsustantiated claims made by many.

[moeee]

I am worried for a few on here who have no real idea of what expectations they should have.
I am worried , (not really - its their affairs) , for a few who neither understand nor care about their expectatations.

[Lord Greystoke]

I am worried for a few on here who have no real idea of what expectations they should have.

Hi Shaun, if I may ask... what is your view on the 5-10% target?

The question was loosely framed around one's bank remaining intact from the point of view of cash losses and/or withdrawals ie there would be none.

One might call it a regular income that is generated and capitalised to the bank over time and currently closer to the 10% mark.

Cheers LG

[garyf]

Curious as to people's thoughts on the following Q...

How does a return on investment of 5-10% sound to you for the year?
OR put another way, POT = 10% with the bank turning over x1 ?

This would be net of commission, tax etc

Attractive
Boring
Impossible
Easy
Madness

?

Cheers LGWhat's your opinion on this L.G? .

Any of the above one word answers,
Will do just fine.

Cheers.

[embee]

i note selection service yesterday claimed they could get 10% pot for year but need .wait for it . 25K FOR BANK do we all have that sitting around ..myself working on chrome prince selections for 20% profit win only but includes greyhounds ( did i hear him fall off chair ) 4 bets 4 wins since monday ..cheers all ..embee

[AngryPixie]

I take your point regards professionals.

The reality for most (95%?) of 'punters' however would be taking a LOT of 75-100% over time?

Sorry may have misread the question. If you're asking if I had $1000 could I turn it into $1100 in a year of punting - yep absolutely no problems at all. Many of us here would be $100 up on a $1000 bank at some point over a 12 month period using sensible bets. Maintaining the $100 profit if you can't stop at that point is more problematic.

[Vortech]

You have to also remember the POT can be affected by the compound affect.

From the few of professional punters that made 100K last financial year, many of the bets were around $1.00 but with many many races each week with several bet types.

[Lord Greystoke]

What's your opinion on this L.G? .

Any of the above one word answers,
Will do just fine.

Cheers.


Attractive !

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

You have to also remember the POT can be affected by the compound affect.

From the few of professional punters that made 100K last financial year, many of the bets were around $1.00 but with many many races each week with several bet types.

A fair sprinkle of multiples, long shots then?

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

What's your opinion on this L.G? .

Any of the above one word answers,
Will do just fine.

Cheers.

And your's, garyf?

LG

[garyf]

And your's, garyf?

LGSame as yours.

Cheers.

[Lord Greystoke]

OK, so lets explore further...

What if:
1. bank gets split 50/50
2. only 2 bets for the year
3. selection takes 5-10 mins
4. expected return = 10%
5. opposite position to 'the crowd'

Any thoughts on this one?

Attractive
Boring
Impossible
Easy
Madness

?

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

Silly.

2 bets a year. What if you don't get a winner for a few years or you miss that one bet in 6 months.

Silly.

[Lord Greystoke]

Silly.

2 bets a year. What if you don't get a winner for a few years or you miss that one bet in 6 months.

Silly.

a. Assume automatic selection eg BOT
b. You always get a winner bc you are sitting opposite to 'the crowd'

LG

PS would have preferred "madness"

[The Ocho]

Madness, sheer madness. 2 bets a year? What's your name? Barny?

:D

[beton]

Lets get some perspective here. There is approx 40 meetings here in Aus for thoroughbreds, each with average of 8 races. 320 races per week, 16,640 races per year. Lets say your system allowed you to bet on half the races and you got 10% POT. and you only bet $1 each bet. This would give you 8,320 bets for a $832 return. Depending on your strike rate you may get a run of outs of 40 for example. So you may actually only ever need $80 to start and run this system. A 10x return on investment every year for $1 bets.
I will take it.
Similarly if you had a system that had you betting 5 horses per race at $1 for a 10% POT. This would give you 83,200 bets per year for a $8320 return. Unlikely that this system would need $800 at risk but this is still a 10x return on investment. I will take it. In fact I would give the other one away for this one.
The stark reality is that you need volume and a small POT comes with volume, to make punting pay. Big POT systems usually have a small number of bets, so you need a greater stake or a number of big POT systems to make anything out of it. It is better to have a slice of a very big pie than
than to have half a slice of a very small pie. Mind you I would not mind having a whole small pie if I could be guaranteed it everytime I wanted one.
Beton

[The Ocho]

I'm hungry now.

[Lord Greystoke]

Madness, sheer madness. 2 bets a year? What's your name? Barny?

:D

Have been called Fred in my early days, but never Barny !

LG

[evajb001]

LG, the original post sounds attractive to me. I work in Financial Planning, i'm 25 years old and had to watch as clients accounts stagnate or even in some cases go backwards over the last 3 and a half years since starting my job. Now compare that to starting with say $20,000 and your achieving 10% POT with turnover of 1x so basically your yielding 10%. Even just compounding that over 3 years you've now got $26,620 or made 33%. Find me anyone interested in wealth creation who would knock that back over 3 years, particularly the last 3 years.

Here's a short story of my very limited foray into the punting arena. I've always had an interest in horse racing, used to go to the trotts and dad would put on bets for me when i was 14 just as a laugh for $5. He's always been into punting and I guess thats where i've got it from. As I turned 18 i'd punt sometimes just by having a look at a horses recent form, or doing a trifecta or quaddie, basically having a crack at anything with no real system or ideas but just for a bit of fun. Obviously i was in the crowd who just threw away money but at least I enjoyed myself doing so.

Anyway once I started working 3.5 years ago I got into sports betting a bit and started having a greater understanding of how I could actually make some money. At this point I also started my own shares portfolio using research obtained through work and borrowing $2,000 from my parents. My sharemarket knowledge continued to increase while working and I think this is what fed my sportsbetting knowledge as I became more and more interested with systems, statistics and how they can influence your betting towards actually being profitable.

Last year I started taking it a little more seriously. It started with having some luck on southern speed which I had for the win and also the trifecta in the same race kicking my account up to $500. From there I would regularly chat to a mate who was really into sports betting. Every night we would talk about the following days NBA plays, discuss all the negatives and positives and lay our bets down. I also did some AFL betting on the side as i'm a keen supporter of the swans and watch probably 3-4 games a weekend. Between early November and February I managed to take my account from roughly $500 to $1,500. Thats where my poor discipline and mentatlity kicked in, I started thinking it was too easy and just putting any old bet on and talking less with my mate about the NBA plays and just doing whatever.

My account started to dwindle down and before I wasted it I took $1,000 out of my account and left $200 there as play money which I eventually lost as well.

All of this gets me to where I am today, using Shaun's spreadsheet i've managed to adapt it into my own ratings which i've found to be profitable given some relatively simply filters (Slow/Heavy, only bet overlays etc). I started betting it with real money about a month ago now, but it probably wasn't the best time to start as the end of the winter season has meant its performed poorly in more recent times. I'm still confident i'm on the right path though and will continue to follow my plays as I bet 1% bankroll and so it will take a huge run of outs to decimate my small bankroll. I continue to read LOTS about punting both on here and various other forums and currently looking at predicting NBA scores using various equations, checking correlations and other statistical functions. I haven't found an edge yet but its an enjoyable exercise for me and hopefully it will improve my sports betting.

I've now got $40k in shares with a further $10k in the bank looking to buy my own house. My aim is that eventually my punting becomes another investment stream that I can enjoy at the same time. Time will tell I guess. Sorry for the long post LG but figured it may be of interest to some. Once I started typing it just kind of flowed haha

[Lord Greystoke]

evajb001...

Don't be sorry about the long post - will have to print it all out and put my monocle on, however!


Cheers LG

[Shaun]

I like to hear people using the stuff i put up here, most of the sheets i provide are ones i have used or using.

good to know others find them useful as well, even if it is only to reuse the macros and code to create there own sheets, this is how i got started by using Kennedy's sheet on the method 260

[evajb001]

Thats good shaun, i've been worried that you might get annoyed if everyone started using it but I figured you put it on here for a reason so you must not mind.

The one thing i'd like to integrate into my ratings is jockey and trainer adjustments, but i'm yet to find a decent way of doing this. If you have any suggestions shaun would love to hear them. Can provide my email address if thats a better way of communicating. Same goes for anyone on here, if they are interested in how I do things or other sports i'm looking at, forums i read etc and want to discuss privately I can give out my email address.

[Lord Greystoke]

LG, the original post sounds attractive to me. I work in Financial Planning, i'm 25 years old and had to watch as clients accounts stagnate or even in some cases go backwards over the last 3 and a half years since starting my job. Now compare that to starting with say $20,000 and your achieving 10% POT with turnover of 1x so basically your yielding 10%. Even just compounding that over 3 years you've now got $26,620 or made 33%. Find me anyone interested in wealth creation who would knock that back over 3 years, particularly the last 3 years.

Top post mate, a refreshing does of reality in a virtual world crammed full of self-made legends! Doesn't smack of ego, just sharing part of your journey... a pleasant change to some of the heavy banter = hot air that gets puffed out in here on occasions (myself included, I would hazzard a guess lol)

Regards the 10% yield, past-present returns do not ever guarantee future performance (as you well know?). However, when I saw a simple solution to achieving such a result - it literally blew me over.

Hence my 'simple question' here, which was an attempt to gauge the value of such a discovery.

Your answer (from a different viewpoint) was possibly the best I could have asked for.

Much appreciated.

Cheers LG

[AngryPixie]

LG

I agree with Beton regarding pie sizes.

I'm much more impressed with a 10% POT over 2000 bet's than a 10% profit over two. The former is much harder to achieve, and the later pretty simple really. You've obviously something your not telling us though as I'm not sure what the following means. :confused:

b. You always get a winner bc you are sitting opposite to 'the crowd'


Here's a dump of real BF lay and back results (the BF bet number is shown) from a bot that's testing a completely automated zero effort "lay with stop loss" system on UK racing. I've added a turnover column on the right and summed that and the profit/loss column to show a $11.87 profit on a $93.85 turnover. Assuming a $100 starting bank that's a 12.6% profit turning over 0.9385 of the bank. Bet placement times are UTC.

I've included this in support of my previous "no hot air intended" comment that making a 10% POT is easily obtained but may be difficult to maintain.

Would love to hear what sitting opposite the crowd means. You know I love a crowd :)

All the best


13:00 Hayd/5f Hcap/Queen Grace Settled $1.43 4.5 Lay $1.43 7/09/2012 12:55 21977773704 $5.01
13:10 Brig/1m4f Hcap/Hikma Settled $1.67 4 Lay $1.67 7/09/2012 13:02 21977916052 $5.01
13:10 Brig/1m4f Hcap/Hikma Settled $1.78 3.75 Back -$1.78 7/09/2012 13:03 21977929203 $1.78
13:20 Chep/1m Mdn Stks/Brick Rising Settled $1.75 3.85 Lay $1.75 7/09/2012 13:12 21978116316 $4.99
13:20 Chep/1m Mdn Stks/Brick Rising Settled $1.93 3.5 Back -$1.93 7/09/2012 13:14 21978143651 $1.93
13:20 Chep/1m Mdn Stks/Entrapping Settled $2.91 2.64 Lay $2.91 7/09/2012 13:18 21978221581 $4.77
13:40 Brig/1m2f Hcap/Highlife Dancer Settled $1.28 4.9 Lay $1.28 7/09/2012 13:35 21978570113 $4.99
13:40 Brig/1m2f Hcap/Semeen Settled $1.25 5 Lay $1.25 7/09/2012 13:34 21978541540 $5.00
13:40 Brig/1m2f Hcap/Semeen Settled $1.36 4.6 Back -$1.36 7/09/2012 13:34 21978554359 $1.36
13:50 Chep/1m Hcap/Croeso Mawr Settled $2.13 3.35 Lay -$5.01 7/09/2012 13:42 21978705771 $5.01
13:50 Chep/1m Hcap/Croeso Mawr Settled $2.30 3.1 Back $4.83 7/09/2012 13:49 21978844945 $2.30
14:05 Hayd/6f Mdn Stks/Sky Garden Settled $1.69 3.95 Lay $1.69 7/09/2012 13:55 21978961399 $4.99
14:05 Hayd/6f Mdn Stks/Sky Garden Settled $1.81 3.75 Back -$1.81 7/09/2012 14:02 21979075636 $1.81
14:05 Hayd/6f Mdn Stks/Valais Girl Settled $1.00 6 Lay $1.00 7/09/2012 14:02 21979081045 $5.00
14:25 Chep/7f Hcap/Clumber Place Settled $2.87 2.59 Lay $2.87 7/09/2012 14:18 21979443549 $4.56
14:35 Hayd/6f Hcap/Willbeme Settled $1.56 4.2 Lay $1.56 7/09/2012 14:26 21979612591 $4.99
14:35 Hayd/6f Hcap/Willbeme Settled $1.68 3.9 Back -$1.68 7/09/2012 14:29 21979682130 $1.68
19:10 Kemp/1m4f Hcap/Mazeydd Settled $2.00 3.5 Lay $2.00 6/09/2012 19:08 21970715799 $5.00
19:10 Kemp/1m4f Hcap/Pallasator Settled $1.32 4.8 Lay -$5.02 6/09/2012 19:00 21970578738 $5.02
19:10 Kemp/1m4f Hcap/Pallasator Settled $1.44 4.4 Back $4.90 6/09/2012 19:08 21970710164 $1.44
19:40 Kemp/1m3f Hcap/Chasin Rainbows Settled $1.00 6 Lay $1.00 6/09/2012 19:39 21971234164 $5.00
19:40 Kemp/1m3f Hcap/Lytham Settled $1.16 5.3 Lay $1.16 6/09/2012 19:31 21971107021 $4.99
19:40 Kemp/1m3f Hcap/Lytham Settled $0.71 8.6 Back -$0.71 6/09/2012 19:31 21971110102 $0.71
20:10 Kemp/6f Hcap/If So Settled $1.39 4.6 Lay $1.39 6/09/2012 20:00 21971547225 $5.00
20:10 Kemp/6f Hcap/If So Settled $1.52 4.2 Back -$1.52 6/09/2012 20:05 21971612275 $1.52

PROFIT $11.87 TURNOVER $93.85

[AngryPixie]

PS. Just noticed the profit figure doesn't line up with it's column but can't be bothered changing it now.

[Lord Greystoke]

LG


Would love to hear what sitting opposite the crowd means. You know I love a crowd :)

All the best



Nice work Pixie, do you love a riddle too?

I reckon it might be a perfect day given we are at back at Flemington today, so take a squiz at some words penned by the great Lou Reed...

You're going to reap
Just what you sow
(Reap, reap, reap)
You're going to reap
J ust what you sow
You're going to reap
Just what you sow
You're going to reap
Just what you sow
(Reap, reap, reap, what you sow)

Swap 'you' for 'they'(being the crowd) and you have part of the answer.

LG

PS thanks to sing-song-man schmiles for the inspiration - i'm still playing that last song, son !

[Lord Greystoke]

PS Youre going to reap, just what they sow... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCymRC7cZTk)

Forgive me for crowning you with the ad at the start.... makes me wanna pick up the juke box and throw it over pub counter !

LG

[AngryPixie]

Nice work Pixie, do you love a riddle too?

No.