Testing two lazy Methods

[michaelg]

I've been testing two "lazy" methods based on the neurals because my Lay the Outsiders method sees very little action. Both methods have been performing well (on paper only) based on Unitab divvies so I'll give them a go here.

Place method:

Wyong
6/1
7/2

Cairns
1/5
4/2
7/1

Pt Mac
1/9


Win Method

Geelong
1/7, 9, 10, 11
2/6, 8
3/7, 10, 11

Wyong
2/4, 5, 7, 13

Port Mac
1/3, 6, 8, 9
2/1, 4, 8, 9, 11
4/2, 3, 4, 7, 9
5/1, 2, 4

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Michaelg.
Being somewhat of a lazy loafer these appeal to me.
Cheers

[michaelg]

The Win system was a wipeout but there was one horse short of Cairns R5 being a qualifier. The selections would have included no.9 which won paying $60.

The Place system seems more reliable because I've often checked it and it snares quite a few placegetters (never really looked at Win results) but have never bet on it until today. From the six selections there were five placegetters paying a total of $6.90, and four winners paying $14.10.

If I have time tomorrow I will list the selections.

[Try Try Again]

Unless I am reading your selections incorrectly Michaelg

Wyong race 2#13 won and paid $22.00 on Unitab

[michaelg]

Thanks, Try, you're right, I missed it. The method also got the quinella of $88.

Unfortunately I did not bet the selections.

I was quite surprised and disappointed because the system had been doing well up to today, but now I hope to continue listing the selections here as it may have merit.

[michaelg]

These are today's Place selections:

Belmont
2/3
3/2

Dombeen
4/1 (NTD)

Flemington
2/1
5/9

Warwick Farm
1/2 (NTD)
4/3
5/1
7/2 (NTD)

Sale
1/15 (resuming)

Toowoomba
1/3 (NTD)
5/1 (NTD)
6/5 (NTD)

Cairns
2/2
3/2 (NTD)


I've flagged the selections as NTD because their races have less than 8 starters. I'll still be backing them to Place.

[michaelg]

From the 16 selections there were 9 winners for a return of $30.50 and 11 placegetters for a return of $17.50.

Deleting the NDT races there were 6 winners from the 9 races for a return of $26.30 and 7 placegetters for a return of $12.80.

Over the two days of listing here there have been 22 selections for 13 winners paying a total of $44.60 and 16 placegetters paying $24.40.

At this early stage it seems that Win betting might be the way to go and also omitting races with less than eight starters.

If there are any selections today I'll list them when available.

[Merriguy]

Might be worth mentioning that NTDs are often not that on Betfair as they pay a third place quite regularly (depending on when the scratching came in).

Another thing that I might mention here is that horses whose history ends up ...X1 are often a good lay. By my calculations (can't be absolutely certain of the figures) yesterday there were 11 lay winners of this sort, and only one loser. Note that I do not lay them unless there are at least 9 starters --- have to make it a little difficult for the horse and jockey! --- nor do I lay an odds on shot e.g. Strawberry Boy, Platinum Rocker, ...yesterday. Have a feeling it was Bhags who first pointed the above out.

If anyone is interested, there are 9 of the above at all meetings today (before scratchings). Good luck.

[michaelg]

Yes, Merriguy, sometimes Betfair pays three "divvies" but to bet one would have to be at a computer just prior to the race because unfortunately one generally can't have a Place-bet on S.P.

That X1 situation seems very logical. However one could dismiss Black Type races because they have the best horses, such as Black Caviar, More Joyous, etc, even though it would be expected the loss would be quite small. I assume yesterday's good result applied to all selections regardless of their price? If so, laying them on S.P. might be worthwhile.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

I've omitted NTD races, selections not resuming and must have had at least two career starts.

Hobart
4/9
6/1

Bendigo
1/3
9/7

Kalgoorlie
4/1

Sun Coast
1/6

Alice Springs
2/11

[Merriguy]

Yes, all regardless of price --- with the exception of the odds on ones as mentioned.

Have been imitating yourself in aiming at a better return; but only SP to $150.00. Came a good outcome in WF Race 8 --- 4 and 8, both selections, and pay out was $113.28 on that one race. Cairns 1 and Flemo 1 both paid on two starters as well. Does not happen all that often though.

[michaelg]

Hi, Merriguy,

I haven't checked your Lay system today. Hopefully it's been profitable.


There was one winner of $3.50 today from the seven selections, and three placegetters for a return of exactly $7.00. It was almost a profitable day because three of the non-placegetters ran fourth.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Albury
3/5
4/1

[michaelg]

Both selections placed for a disappointing return of $2.14.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Mackay
5/1
6/6

[michaelg]

Both selections placed for a return of $2.70.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Belmont
1/5

Eagle Farm
4/10

[Pete the punter]

What sort of S/R and return are you getting

[michaelg]

Hi, Pete.

There's only been 21 selections that have been listed here, for 15 placegetters (a strike rate of 71%) for a profit of $3.82 (a POT of 18% using NSWTAB divvies).

The testing period was also successful.

[michaelg]

Four selections today:

Hawkesbury
3/3
6/1

Rocky
5/2
6/1

[michaelg]

There were 3 placegetters from the 4 selections for a return of $4.50.

[Vortech]

Hi Michaelg,

Do you still follow the results from a system I think you used where the neurals were default except CF and TIM were 0. Back any horse over 140+ points?

[michaelg]

Vortech, I won't disclose the rules at this time but the method is very close to those you have listed, I hope I have improved it. The results are promising although there's only been 25 selections.

I am very hesitant to reveal the rules here because of anyone looking to steal sell other people's systems, but will do so privately if it continues to perform and if there is interest here.

[Vortech]

I've played with some other filters including dls, career starts n a couple of others. Very good results

[michaelg]

Vortech, it seems we are just about on the same page.

Today's selections:

Canberra
1/3

Geelong
1/4
4/11

Ipswich
1/1

Ballina
1/13
7/2

[Vortech]

I had two selections today

Ballana 1 - 13
Geelong 2 - 4

Would love to send you an email with my current findings.

I've splits the races into 5 sections
A - Metro, B - Other Australia C - NZ D- HK- E - Other

Metro is going really well.

[michaelg]

Vortech my e-mail address is: mglfyl at primusonline dot com dot au.

I'll then reveal my rules for the current method.

[Vortech]

Email sent with my rules/results attached

[michaelg]

The method's first losing day. From the six selections there were four placegetters for a return of $5.34 - a loss of $0.66.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Rosehill
3/1
4/3
6/4
7/1

Moonee Valley
5/2
7/2

Dombeen
1/1
2/3

Morphetville
1/1
5/1

Belmont
4/4
6/3

Gold Coast
6/7

Toowoomba
1/8

Ge3raldton
1/1
3/7
4/1

Darwin
3/2
4/5