The cream of the crop

[TheSchmile]

Hi crew,
I'm going to try and see if we can carve out a crust backing only the finest horseflesh, predominately for the PLACE.

Rules:
1/ Minimum standard - black type
2/ Back for the place unless <=1.60 for the win SP in the morning on Tatts.

Today's selections:
Flemington
2.55pm 5 - 9 Snitzerland (1.60/1.08)
Warwick Farm
3.15pm 5 - 8 Lights of Heaven (7.5/2.25)
Flemington
3.35pm 6 - 2 Manighar (3.4/1.48)
Warwick Farm
4.35pm 7 - 2 Rain Affair (1.55/1.16)

The selections are based on my own thoughts, using the benchmark figures provided by racing NSW and racing VIC.

Have a glorious Saturday, I'll be out at Flemington. Can't wait!!!

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice one Schmilemeister.

Bring back a saddle bag full of cash, son.

LG

[Shaun]

Can we add our thoughts on this idea or would you like to keep it as your selections only?

[moeee]

I would like to read your thoughts Shaun - either here , or in another thread you start.

[TheSchmile]

Thanks LG,

I've taken a few early prices, so nothing left to do but have a few sparkling bevvies and watch the magic unfold.

Shaun, ideas are very welcome!!

[TheSchmile]

No cigar today,

Some super runs from a Majors perspective. Lights of Heaven was very disappointing!

My most exciting moment racing-wise today, was watching Danleigh do the business at the Farm. Nine years of age. Legendary.

I'd love to see some input on how to attack the black type races this Spring. So let the ideas/methodologies flow!!

Out 4 In 3.1 P/L -.9

[Barny]

I'd love to see some input on how to attack the black type races this Spring. So let the ideas/methodologies flow!!


1) Win S/R in excess of, or thereabouts of 50%
2) QLD, SA or even WA based horse, and of course NZ. This form seems underrated when you compare the Melb and Syd form, but it does hold up.
Logic is that you'll get good odds about a good horse that the trainer thinks has a chance (otherwise, why would he / she make the trip?)
3) Scratch Gai Waterhouse horses, overbet and overrated, and dont win in Melb in the Spring.
4) Do not bet on international jockeys

[TheSchmile]

Thanks for your thoughts Barny!

Some interesting observations.

I'm a huge fan of the banana benders when they have a red hot go down south.Buffering, Woorim, Temple of Boom spring to mind. Solzhenitsyn looks like a having a big spring prep after yesterday's hands and heels romp.

I'm not sure sacking all Waterhouse horses is the way to go but I do agree many of them start unders. Occasionally one will sneak under the radar and I always look at Nash's rides, as he is a gun in my opinion.

Not betting on international jocks is a contentious one. The 'Frenchies' over a distance seem to ride pretty well. Recent Cup winners are an example.

[Barny]

Swiss Ace first drew my attention to the "outclassed" QLD'rs. Keep your eyes peeled for the odd SA horse with a decent SR (50%+). They too have come over here and won at odds ..... Tassie horses don't do so much, but that may change.

[Try Try Again]

Any one using Zipform ratings - only consider horses with >=57 rating in WFA races.

[Pete the punter]

Maybe the wrong place to put this info

But on Saturday at Flemington, with taking the races where only 2 horses had a nueral price of $6.50 or less, there some good results



<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="558"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3657;width:75pt" width="100"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3254;width:67pt" width="89"> <col style="width:48pt" span="2" width="64"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:6473;width:133pt" width="177"> <col style="width:48pt" width="64"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height:15.0pt;width:75pt" height="20" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-left:none;width:48pt" align="right" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-left:none;width:48pt" align="right" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Timely Truce</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64"> </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.75pt" height="21"> <td class="xl70" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="21" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Jimando</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">1st</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl72" style="height:15.0pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="20" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Launay</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64"> </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.75pt" height="21"> <td class="xl70" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="21" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Testascana</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">2nd</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl72" style="height:15.0pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="20" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Snitzerland</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">1st</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.75pt" height="21"> <td class="xl70" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="21" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Rusambo</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">3rd</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl72" style="height:15.0pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="20" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">14</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Prizum</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">3rd</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.75pt" height="21"> <td class="xl70" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none; width:75pt" height="21" width="100">08-Sep-12</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:67pt" width="89">Flemington</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none; width:48pt" align="right" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:133pt" width="177">Excluded</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">1st</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[TheSchmile]

Interesting angle Pete the punter,

Might be worth looking at further.

Thanks for sharing!!

[TheSchmile]

2.40pm Rosehill Race 4 - Centennial Park**
3pm Moonee Valley 5 - Golden Archer
3.20pm Rosehill Race 5 - More Joyous
4pm Rosehill Race 6 - Nechita
4.40pm Rosehill Race 7 - Stout Hearted
5pm Moonee Valley Race 8 - Spirit Song

Same rules as last week. Have a great day one and all!

[TheSchmile]

Apologies I stuffed up with Spirit Song. Amended races:

2.40pm Rosehill Race 4 - Centennial Park
3pm Moonee Valley 5 - Golden Archer
3.20pm Rosehill Race 5 - More Joyous
4pm Rosehill Race 6 - Nechita
4.20pm Moonee Valley Race 7 - Spirit Song
4.40pm Rosehill Race 7 - Stout Hearted

[TheSchmile]

Pete The Punter System

Rules:
1/ Take the races where only 2 horses have a neural price of $6.50 or less
2/ No 2yo or 3yo races

Moonee Valley
3 - 1,6
4 - 1,3
5 - 1,2
6 - 5,7
7 - 1,2

Rosehill
2 - 1,6
3 - 1,3
4 - 3,4
7 - 1,4
8 - 5,11

[TheSchmile]

I might request the administrators change this thread to 'TheSchmile's stakes place LAYS' ha ha

Some good quinella action for Pete the Punter's system Saturday:

Moonee Valley
3 - 1,6 / 1 won $5.40, 6 2nd $2pl Q:$16.30
4 - 1,3 / both unpl
5 - 1,2 / both unpl
6 - 5,7 / 7 won $4.90, 5 2nd 1.80 pl Q:9.30
7 - 1,2 / 2 2nd $1.60pl

Win bets - Out 10 In $10.30
Quinellas - Out 5 In $25.60

Rosehill
2 - 1,6 / 1 won $2.20
3 - 1,3 / 3 2nd $1.50
4 - 3,4 / 4 3rd $1.60
7 - 1,4 / both unplaced
8 - 5,11 / 11 won $3

Win bets - Out 10 In $5.20
Quinellas - Out 5 In 0

Total for the day
Win bets - Out 20 In 15.50 P/L - 4.5
Quinellas - Out 10 in 25.60 P/L +15.6

Total P/L + 11.1

Observations:
- Both quinellas were in mile races.
- It could pay long-term to cut out races with 2+ first uppers as they are penalised a little too harshly by the neurals in my opinion.

I'm off for a holiday in the sun so catch you in a few weeks.

[Barny]

You guys get off track pretty quickly ..... Ocean Park fitted the bill nicely !! ..... if you care to re-acquant yourselves with the guru's opinions ..... Unmarked bills only please !! YeeeeeeHaaaaaa

[TheSchmile]

I didn't have a look on Saturday Barny as I was away but it was a lovely win from what Bossy said.

Let's have a look this Saturday.

Glad you backed a nice winner!!

[TheSchmile]

Morning Team,

Apologies, I'm rather time poor at the minute.

Pete's selections today at Caulfield:

Race 6 - 2,5
Race 7 - 3,10

Any of your '50%+ invaders' running today Barny?

[Barny]

1) 3) Scratch Gai Waterhouse horses, overbet and overrated, and dont win in Melb in the Spring.

Need I say any more ?? A big winner last week with Ocean Park and a couple of Gai's down the gurgler today.

Looks like Barny knows his apples from his onions ..... why are my eyes watering ?!?!

[The Ocho]

I think favourites are overrated in the big group 1's. Maybe a good system would be to lay the fave in group 1 races. +1.6 points in the 3 races today at Caulfield.

[garyf]

1) 3) Scratch Gai Waterhouse horses, overbet and overrated, and dont win in Melb in the Spring.
Flemington 06/10/2012.

<TABLE class=w600><TBODY><TR><TD class=StakesHeader colSpan=7 align=middle>Race 8 - Gilgai Stakes


Group 2 - 1200m
Class: Open. Track: Good. Time: </B>1:08.83. Sectional Time: 0:33.29 at 600m.
Prizemoney: $220,000 - 1st: $132,000 2nd: $39,600 3rd: $19,800.

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>1</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20></TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>11. Hallowell Belle (http://www.racenet.com.au/horse/Hallowell-Belle)</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>Ms G Waterhouse</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>V Duric (5) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$7.50






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>53.5






</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Results600Norm colSpan=2></TD><TD class=Results600Norm colSpan=5>http://www.breednet.com.au/images/results/results_starcraft.jpg (http://www.arrowfield.com.au/) 4m Starcraft (NZ) (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Starcraft)x Bella Inez (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Bella+Inez&s=1)(Beautiful Crown (USA) )


http://www.breednet.com.au/images/2010InglisPremierYearlingSale/11.jpg (http://www.breednet.com.au/images/2010InglisPremierYearlingSale/11.jpg) Lot 11; 2010 Inglis Premier Yearling Sale (http://www.breednet.com.au/SaleData/SaleData.asp?sale=Premier+Yearling+Sale&y=2010&c=Inglis); Vendor - Three Bridges Thoroughbreds, Maldon; Buyer - Star Thoroughbreds Pty Ltd $170,000

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=5>Previous Start: 3 - Randwick 28/04/2012, Sharp James H B Carr Stakes, 1400m Details (http://www.breednet.com.au/ResultsDisplay2.asp?v=Randwick&D=2012-04-28#Randwick28/04/20121)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>2</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>0.8</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>7. King's Rose (NZ)</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>P G Moody</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>L Nolen (2) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$9






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>55.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Results600Norm colSpan=2></TD><TD class=Results600Norm colSpan=5>http://www.breednet.com.au/images/results/results_redoute'schoice.jpg (http://www.arrowfield.com.au/) 5m Redoute's Choice (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Redoute's-Choice)x Nureyev's Girl (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Nureyev%27s+Girl&s=1)(Nureyev (USA) )


Lot 134; 2009 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale (http://www.breednet.com.au/SaleData/SaleData.asp?sale=Australian+Easter+Yearling+Sale&y=2009&c=Inglis); Vendor - Haunui Farm, Auckland, NZ; Buyer - Withdrawn

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>3</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>0.8</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>2. Spirit Of Boom</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>T J Gollan</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>M J Walker (8) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$5






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>57.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD class=Results600Norm colSpan=2></TD><TD class=Results600Norm colSpan=5>5h Sequalo (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Sequalo)x Temple Spirit (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Temple+Spirit&s=1)(Special Dane )


http://www.breednet.com.au/images/2009MMQTIS600/141.jpg (http://www.breednet.com.au/images/2009MMQTIS600/141.jpg) Lot 141; 2009 MM QTIS 600 (http://www.breednet.com.au/SaleData/SaleData.asp?sale=QTIS+600&y=2009&c=MM); Vendor - Eureka Thoroughbreds Pty Ltd; Buyer - THE GOLLAN RACING TRUST $90,000

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>4</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>2.6</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>3. Galah</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>Peter Snowden</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>G Boss (9) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$26






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>57.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>4h Redoute's Choice (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Redoute's-Choice)x Rinky Dink (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Rinky+Dink&s=1)(Distorted Humor (USA) ) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>5</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>2.8</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>4. Bel Sprinter</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>Jason Warren</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>B Melham (1) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$2.75






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>56.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>5g Bel Esprit (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Bel-Esprit)x Gavroche (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Gavroche&s=1)(Snippets ) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>6</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>2.9</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>10. Metallurgical</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>John Thompson</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>M Zahra (6) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$61






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>55.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>6g Redoute's Choice (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Redoute's-Choice)x Lady Capel (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Lady+Capel&s=1)(Last Tycoon (IRE) ) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>7</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>3.9</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>9. Excellantes</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>R L Heathcote</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>J Winks (7) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$16






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>55.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>5g Falvelon (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Falvelon)x Cantantes (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Cantantes&s=1)(Just Awesome ) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>8</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>4.1</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>6. Mid Summer Music</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>P G Moody</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>B Rawiller (10) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$7.50






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>55.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>7m Oamaru Force (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Oamaru-Force)x Samsara Lady (NZ) (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Samsara+Lady&s=1)(Nassipour (USA) ) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>9</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>4.2</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>8. Sistine Angel</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>Andrew Noblet</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>Craig Williams (4) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$26






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>55.0






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>5m Testa Rossa (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Testa-Rossa)x Famous Painter (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Famous+Painter&s=1)(Peintre Celebre (USA) ) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=ResultsRunner width=25>10</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=20>5.5</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>5. Liveandletdie</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>M A Kavanagh</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner>D Oliver (3) </TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>$21






</TD><TD class=ResultsRunner width=30>55.5






</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=6>5h Street Cry (IRE) (http://www.breednet.com.au/sire/Street-Cry)x Janella (IRE) (http://www.breednet.com.au/search/SearchRes.asp?dam=Janella&s=1)(Great Commotion (USA) ) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Must have forgotten about this one ?

Cheers.

[TheSchmile]

Hi chaps,

Garyf looks to have come back with the right hook......:)

I agree yesterday Barny that the two favoured Waterhouse runners were caught in the 'spin cycle.' I think the hype even got to Nash as I'd rate both his rides in his 'worst ever' category.

I thought Fat Al went around at a decent price last week though. It might pay to remember that Grand Final Day for Pierro and MJ is the Cox Plate.......

[TheSchmile]

I had a look at Waterhouse's stats on R+S and it makes for interesting reading.

Waterhouse Stats (http://horseform.racingandsports.com.au/viewTrainer.asp?id=38D4E571741F9AD3429B35)

Her strike rate and POT is better in NSW and you can make a level stakes profit backing Rawiller and Berry on Waterhouse mounts with a profit of 5.4% and 4.1% POT respectively. It would appear sticking to Metro meetings is the go!

[SpeedyBen]

I have long held the belief that More Joyous will not win the Cox Plate and have already laid her at a short price as I don't think she's a true 2000m horse against the best. I happily laid her yesterday and was never worried in running.
I also laid Pierro in running at 1.40 and must admit I thought I'd done my dough with 200m to go. I am a big fan of Pierro but thought Nash R. made one critical error and that was to go forward when Pierro missed the start. He seemed to not have a plan B.

[TheSchmile]

Nice work SpeedyBen!

I'm a bit of a hopeless romantic when it comes to my favourite horses, so I couldn't bring myself to lay More Joyous even though I thought she'd struggle with the 60kg's.

Nash had a terrible time on both horses on Saturday and talk is that they might both be stuffed for the Cox Plate with such hard runs going in. Craig Williams jumping off Pierro is interesting......

Barny did you take the bank interest on Ocean Park? I took it at $1.60 fixed as I thought Sincero wouldn't run it out and things went to plan. Lovely horse.

[Barny]

Barny did you take the bank interest on Ocean Park?
Far too short for me TheSchmile

[norisk]

Dear o'l Gai trains front runners in a closed shop & does it well - get outside her comfort zone or tactics don't suit & it's rarely all so rosey.

[SpeedyBen]

Thanks TheSchmile.
Watching the replay I am in awe of what Pierro did. After working hard up the hill in a time that was 12 lengths faster than par he had no right to kick away down the straight.
I was amused to hear Nash R trying to deflect criticism by saying that the horse didn't get into his usual rythym. Gee Nash when the leaders are going at breakneck pace and you're out 4 wide going fastest of all perhaps the horse has an excuse.

[Barny]

Need I say any more ?? A big winner last week with Ocean Park and a couple of Gai's down the gurgler today.

Looks like Barny knows his apples from his onions ..... why are my eyes watering ?!?!
;) Didn't have a bet but history just keep repeating

[SpeedyBen]

I couldn't decide between Ocean Park and Pierro so I laid Green Moon instead. Never a worry in running.
You're right about laying the Waterhouse horses in Melb.