What's the catch?

[macs]

Hi guys and girls, first post here but I've been lurking for a couple of months, thanks for all the information and the odd argument or two lol. It gets a bit heated here too I see!

I'm a complete newbie and haven't had a serious punt since my old man used to take my pocket money off me on a Saturday afternoon 40 years ago but thought I'd make a bit of a hobby out of it as I've always loved the horses.

I started a couple of accounts about 3 months ago, one place, one win and so far it hasn't been too bad but I'd say it's more luck than judgement as they are both well up (we're talking $5 bets guys lol).

I've taken a lot of advice from around here as far as staking is concerned and don't chase losses and stick to my percentages but I'd like to know what is the catch with lay betting?

I've only just got my head around lay betting as it's a totally new concept to me and I realise if you don't stay disciplined you could really do your butt and the whole account but surely it aint that hard to pick a loser AND get your bet matched if you're not too greedy. Am I way off course or missing something?

[The Ocho]

I'd like to know what is the catch with lay betting?
.........surely it aint that hard to pick a loser.......Am I way off course or missing something?
Yes.

Welcome aboard by the way

[Raven]

Hi macs,

Its easy to get matched. You put the bet on at betfair SP.

Laying is tricky. You've got to have an idea about what sort of price you consider a fair price about your selection. And it must be realistic. And only lay when it is below that price.

I dont always price the entire field, but if I think a horse is a lay opportunity, I do try to price that horse and use that as my bet / don't bet becnhmark. Hope that makes sense.

[macs]

LoL, maybe it's total beginners luck then because I read form and understand it on the gallops but know absolutely nothing about the trots and just turned $15 in to $40 with lay bets in 20 minutes LMAO!

[AngryPixie]

I've only just got my head around lay betting as it's a totally new concept to me and I realise if you don't stay disciplined you could really do your butt and the whole account but surely it aint that hard to pick a loser AND get your bet matched if you're not too greedy. Am I way off course or missing something?

Ohhh :eek: :D

Welcome macs. Everybody thinks that until they get their pants pulled down.

Expand on what you're doing a little and I'm sure their will be some experienced layers to assist.

[macs]

Oh Angry I can see how you can get your pants pulled down and big time if your not careful. Expand on what I'm doing? I think the luck comes in because I don't really have a clue at this stage what I'm doing!

[macs]

Thanks for the welcome Raven, Ocho. I'll try and find out what I'm missing then Ocho.

[AngryPixie]

Oh Angry I can see how you can get your pants pulled down and big time if your not careful. Expand on what I'm doing? I think the luck comes in because I don't really have a clue at this stage what I'm doing!

macs, well winning at the punt is mainly luck despite alot of what you read in these pages. You do need a plan and more importantly you need to know what to do when things start moving against you.

The trick with laying is *NOT* to go too far into the backers zone (roughly anything over about 11.00), and not to be afraid to lay multiple selections in the one race. The money with laying is in the turnover.

[The Ocho]

Oh Angry I can see how you can get your pants pulled down and big time if your not careful.
As long as you realise that and are only using a small percentage of your bank to lay with.

Don't be getting all macho and think it's easy to lay because your pants WILL be pulled down. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But someday, macs, someday. I just hope you'll be wearing your Rio's. :D

[macs]

Thanks Angry. I've been watching a heap of races tonight over a wine or two and can see how it can get a bit scary on the lay side. I can also see how money/POT balance management can fly out the window real easy if you get careless.

I've subscribed to a popular software/form program for the last couple of months and have seen 15/1 to 40/1 winners come in several times a week so the risks are most certainly there. Thanks for the heads up on the 11/1 info.

[macs]

As long as you realise that and are only using a small percentage of your bank to lay with.

Don't be getting all macho and think it's easy to lay because your pants WILL be pulled down. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But someday, macs, someday. I just hope you'll be wearing your Rio's. :DThanks Ocho but mate at 54 the macho bit flew out the window years ago and I don't think RIO would make ém big enough for me these days lol. I'm an absolute novice and just had a bit of luck but willing to learn and find it a lot of fun.

[The Ocho]

I don't really mean to bring you down macs, I'm only trying to be practical.

You may become the best lay bettor in the world (somebody has got to be). I wish you well in your journey (I'm serious). Just remember us here and throw us a few tips every now and then. ;)

[macs]

You're not bringing me down Ocho, I'm a pretty laid back character and this is just a bit of fun for me, nothing too serious.

I did end up putting the RIO's on last night because in the last race the 3 dog jumped straight over the bl****y rails and yanked ém half way down my legs lol! Good job they were clean. Serves me right for thinking the favourite was too short to lose.

Lesson number 1, listen to Ocho! :)

[The Ocho]

LOL.

So Lesson 1 is - The favourite is NEVER too short to lose. :cool:

[norisk]

Hi macs, when it comes to staking advice re laying you could do worse than googling 'marias staking plan' & having a read.

As far as 'surely it aint that hard to pick a loser' all I would like to say is that punting wise, there is nothing more devastating than laying that juicy winner - it did my head in more times than I care to remember so these days I only lay the sharp end of the market, often for the place.

[macs]

Thanks for that NR, will do. I can imagine laying that juicy winner, mine was bad enough last night at 8/1, you get that horrible sinking feeling in your gut and especially when you've got your RIO's round your ankles. :)

Talking about frustration, the biggest one for me so far and I couldn't get it out of my head for a few days is Mr. L Cassidy. I heard some tipster mention some months back that he's always a good bet in the last and right he was. He's got me out of trouble at least twice in the last month or two so I've been looking for him each Sunday.

Last Sunday I'd already had about 20 bets and was feeling knackered and didn't even notice him at the Sunny Coast in the last, 48/1, talk about spewing!

[macs]

Maria did so well NR, very interesting read and so is her forum. I'm finding there's some very smart people in this industry but for every one of them there is also a snake oil salesman trying to sell you garbage.

[The Ocho]

The problem with laying is that you can have a beautiful day, week, month (depending on your amount of bets) and then that one Lay loser comes along and wipes out all your profits for the period.

[moeee]

If you lose a months Profit in a single wager , I'ld suggest you may have laid it for a little too much.

[norisk]

Yep agree The Ocho

I have adopted a simple mantra regard to laying which so far is serving me well - 'You cannot stop them from winning'

Most here would know of multiple reasons/filters etc as to why a horse shouldn't be able to win a race, but I will eat my hat if anyone has ever identified a reason why one absolutely cannot...other than of course having a dodgy pygmy up - yes MC, I am looking at you;)

[jose]

Too right Norisk, agree wholeheartedly.
I have actually been looking for that filter for ages myself, to no avail of course, as it obviously doesn't exist.

[Bhagwan]

Welcome to the Forum, Mac,
Here is a lay staking approach that helps keep things in check.
It also ensures that one does not over bet the shorter prices, where most of the winners come from.

Lay Bet Staking.
1% of bank if priced <= 5.80
.5% of bank if priced 6.00-11.00

This allows for 22+ outs in a row.

[macs]

Thanks Bhagwan, much appreciated. I also take back what I said in my initial post, "surely it can't be that hard to pick a loser" :) 5-10 wins in a row, one loss and it's back to the drawing board lol!

New strategy: Make decision on which horse to lay and then back it! :)

[norisk]

New strategy: Make decision on which horse to lay and then back it! :)


you've cracked it;)

[macs]

Now I'm completely armed and extremely dangerous, I bought myself a bot!

[Lord Greystoke]

Gotta ask yourself a question...

Will it automatically clean the tanks out every night??

LG

[macs]

Probably but it wont do what I wanted it to do anyway. Nice one click make bet for BF though.

[The Ocho]

Be careful macs. I thought a bot would solve all my problems so I bought 2 of them. Made them SO much worse it's not funny.

The bot can bet on what you want but you've got to come up with a good system first.

[macs]

It was actually a waste of $150 Ocho. I was under the impression I could import my selections each morning from Bet Selector but I can't, however it's great watching your POT disappear in simulation mode :)

[The Ocho]

Didn't you give a free trial run first? Most, if not all, bot suppliers allow you to do that.

[macs]

Yes I did but I didn't actually attempt to import my selections, I just read you could but it turns out they can't be produced by a third party software.

It's all good, after using it for a few days IMO it's worth the money just for the simulation aspect.

I have a question about data. How much faith do you put in to past results, if it's happened in the past is it just as likely to happen in the future?

[Vortech]

macs from my limited knowledge and in relation to sample size I keep asking myself that question everyday.

The facts however are the larger the sample, the more confidence one would have on the events continuing. How large sample, that is up to the individual.

Another factor is the dividend of winners.

If you have 500 bets and have a return of $600 you may think ok all aboard. But within the $600 turnover you might have 2 winners paying $80, another paying $60 etc..... the chances of the next 500 bets containing these winners may be slim. not impossible tho.

This is why I'm currently reducing in some cases the Profit on Turnover to generate a larger sample but also a larger dollar turnover.

To know the long-term strike rate of any system is one of the most difficult elements of a system to measure especially off a small sample regardless of the testing period.

Good luck.

[AngryPixie]

This posting of some time ago may be of some use.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?p=162371

Normal disclaimer though, methods like these are tools not guarentees. There's no assurance that what has happened in the past will continue. ;)

[macs]

Thanks for that Angry, a wee bit complex for my concentration levels but fascinating to say the least.

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice one AP!

You will forever be known as 'Mr CHI' in my head, there being a specialist for everything on here it seems (a bit like 'The great Escape' movie eg the forger, the scrounger etc). Unless of course you might like to offer your own preference??

Cheers LG

PS you can call me 'Mr Mixer' = I can sometimes see the way different approaches might fit - come together to form an even better outcome.

[The Ocho]

You can call me 'The Trader', LG, as that's the only way I can seem to make any money at this game. :) :(

[Lord Greystoke]

If you can trade your way thru barb wire or make your way up thru the border into shwitzerland, you are a winner my son.

LG

[macs]

LOL.

So Lesson 1 is - The favourite is NEVER too short to lose. :cool:So Lesson 2 is - Don't become a smart ******** and think you're better than your system just because you've had 80 odd straight lays. 4 days profit gone in 4 manual bets ho hum.

[The Ocho]

Sorry to here that macs. Laying can be a cruel master.

[macs]

It's a very enjoyable learning curve Ocho and I'm still in profit so tomorrow is another day.

We'll try and cut out the brain farts tomorrow.

[AngryPixie]

So Lesson 2 is - Don't become a smart ******** and think you're better than your system just because you've had 80 odd straight lays. 4 days profit gone in 4 manual bets ho hum.

Macs, refer to post #5 in this thread. ;)

Have you found the catch yet?

[macs]

I don't know about finding out the catch yet AP (there's too many of them) but it didn't take long to realize quality is far better than quantity. 5 lays a day at $100 would be heaps better than 80 at $10 but alas, if I was caught by the other half putting 5K -10K in a BF account I'd be going to one place, the divorce courts! :)

[Bhagwan]

Hi Mac,
Have you thought about betting to Liability.
Say 1/20th of bank.

Example
$400.00 bank at 1/20th
$20.00 liability per race.
Divide Fractional odds of horse into $20.00
e.g. $20.00 divided by fractional odds 4/1 (5.00) = O/L $5.00

The max one can lose, on a single race, is 20.00 regardless of the odds.

[macs]

That's what I'm doing now Bhagwan, seems to be working quite well. I noticed you were on the Betbotpro forum. Have you had any issues with it locking up and/or turning itself off?