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Chrome Prince
16th September 2012, 12:56 AM
Not much discussion on arbitrage around here, so I thought
i'd post some research and advice I've found. Please note, much of this is researched from other sources with my input.

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Calculator
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The free arbitrage calculator I use is this:


http://www.windowsarbitragecalculator.com/downloads.php?cat_id=1


Some of the key features you will find:

You can use UK odds(e.g 5/2), EU odds(e.g 3.4), US odds(e.g -220) at the same time, without changing any settings in the main arbitrage calculator.
There is no accept or calculate button. This has been designed from the ground up to be as fast as possible to use. It will update all the calculations as you type.
It can be used for up to 8 standard arbitrage selections or it can be used for greening up trades on Betfair style sites (FAST!)
Both modes have multiple features, including equal split winnings, favourite only or even smoothing the bets to the nearest 5 or 10 to not make bookmakers suspicious.
Works as a standalone Windows application as long as you have .NET 3.5 SP1 installed.
It is only 52K with no install or registry changes leaving your PC as clean after you use it as it was before you used it.
Absolutely no spyware.

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Bookmakers and keeping accounts open.
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Bet round dollar numbers.
Never work out your stakes to round amounts, e.g. stake to $100 or $500
Make it an odd amount.

When your account is winning with a bookie, use the basic fake-a-loss technique by laying your bets off at Betfair.
I find the best way to "transfer" winnings back to Betfair, is to back very short soccer or tennis bets and lay off on Betfair.
If the bet wins, you're not increasing your winnings enough to get you shut down, and sooner or later something will fall over.

You don't want to look professional, so never withdraw winnings in the conventional manner and rest winning accounts in favour of losing ones.
Many times this strategy also gives you a reload bonus from the bookie because they notice you've stopped betting with them.

Avoid moving money into and out of your accounts using banking any more often than is absolutely necessary.
Bookies incur quite significant banking costs if you use bank cards.
If they are already having doubts about your account, there is nothing quite like a whole pile of bank fees to tip them over the edge.

A really good way of getting accounts limited is to open an email about a reload offer, make a debit card deposit, milk the offer, then withdraw all your money again.

Use Skrill or Paypal to deposit or withdraw.
Spread your Arbs amongst a few bookies if possible.
Arbing is all very well but if you are placing $200 bets on some obscure event, it won’t be that long before your bookie limits you. It would be better to place four arbs of $50 across a whole range of bookies, so the risk of unwanted attention is reduced.

More to follow...

Betstar is offering double fixed odds on all Group 1 races for
Spring

:D

Raven
16th September 2012, 02:10 AM
Highly recommend Betstar

They offered double the odds on a 9 race Randwick meeting in the Autumn; I cleared $300 on the day. Also have good sports incentives like $2 NRL faves, $2 lines etc for a weekend if you like that sort of thing. I think there is something like 22 G1's this spring so theres $600-$700 to be made.

My $500 initial deposit is currently at $2900 and nothing but good service so far.

Mark
16th September 2012, 12:10 PM
CP, i've just had another LOSING a/c with sportbset closed. How or why are they still in business???

Chrome Prince
16th September 2012, 01:56 PM
Perhaps they have your IP address to identify you.

Chrome Prince
16th September 2012, 02:08 PM
Following on:

I'm not covering Bonus Bagging here, as SA and Victorian residents are ineligible.

There are many free sports arbitrage services, the best being oddschecker and bestbetting. While they don't actually provide an alert service, you can quickly see all matches / games percentages with one click.

Oddschecker has bumper coupon for soccer, any percentage under 100% is an arb. The same applies to their tennis coupon.
A very quick and handy way to save time.

Bestbetting allows you to review every single soccer division for the week ahead, and automatically highlights potential arb opportunities across all European and international leagues, on markets from Match Odds to 'Draw No Bet' and 'Half Time Result'.
All you do is go to bestbetting.com, then click on 'Football' in the left hand column, then select one of the competitions – e.g. Champions League – and keep clicking through, until you get to a list of individual matches.
We're simply looking for a 3-way arb where the total percentage shown in the right hand column for the best available, combined odds is below 100%.

Mark
16th September 2012, 07:03 PM
Perhaps they have your IP address to identify you.

Midway through my travels when it was "restricted".
Shame really because today they bet some massive overs compared to betfair.

moeee
16th September 2012, 07:18 PM
CP, i've just had another LOSING a/c with sportbset closed.
You say that like its a bad thing.

Mark
17th September 2012, 08:04 PM
You obviously don't get it moeee. Yesterday there were at least 5 cases of Sportsbet being way over Betfair prices. One you could have backed at 31 and laid at 15. Not being able to take advantage of that I'd definitely call a bad thing

Chrome Prince
19th September 2012, 10:35 AM
In fact horse racing presents some of the better opportunities for arbitrage percentage wise, as compared with sports.
Often a bookies price can be above Betfair trading price as Mark suggested.

Chrome Prince
6th October 2012, 12:49 PM
Pretty quiet in here at the moment and I've been busy arbing all over the place, so haven't had time to post much, but here's the next installment.

This is the advanced arbitrage guide:

So here we are looking at Best Odds Guaranteed bookies and seeing if we can lay on Betfair at similar prices.
The catch is that many prices are over the bookies prices and so I was only getting matched on one or two horses and so a long time between winners and lots of commission paid for losers.
Couple that with the fact that at least half the BOG bookies don't accept Aussies, we are left with only five prospects.
Unfortunately, the one's we can't get set with often offer the best odds :(

So realistically left with two perhaps three bookies to use, and getting the same or less odds on more than one or two selections, especially favoured ones is greatly diminished.
This is because the top three or four fancied make up the largest percentage of the book and Betfair users will usually back a few percent above early bookies prices, making it locking in a loss unless too many times to catch the benefits of best odds guaranteed drifters that actually go on to win.

The strategy then is to find a BOG bookie that pays 1/4 (a quarter) the place and BOG the win. To date the only bookie that offers this AND pays three places is Bet365. BEWARE: Many BOG bookies offer 1/4 the place but only pay two places.

Using this strategy one can benefit if the horse drifts, but also lay a bit higher for the win if required because the place odds you get are slightly higher.

The rule I use is half a point limit higher on the win portion providing I can lay lower on the place.

For example if a horse is $6.00 with the bookie, we work out the place price to be $2.25 quarter odds as opposed to $2.00 one fifth odds.
So I would lay for the win up to $6.50 instead of $6.00.

It's probably clear as mud, because I understand what I'm doing but it's hard to convey, so here's a real world example in the first race at Ascot (UK) tonight.

Garswood is $3.25 with Bet365 and $3.40 on the exchange.
For a $10 stake I lock in a loss of $1.50 and hope it drifts and wins.
If it wins but doesn't drift I lose $1.50.
If it loses, I lose 0.46 cents in commission.

However, working out the place odds, Bet365 will give me $1.56 place odds.
I've just been matched @ $1.49 on Betfair.

Now the picture looks better.

Garswood wins but doesn't drift, I lose $1.50 the win, but win $0.70 the place. Outcome, lose $0.80 (nearly halved the loss).

Garswood wins and drifts, happy days, I pick up $0.70 plus any profit from it drifting.

Garswood doesn't win but places 2nd or 3rd, I lose $0.46 from betfair win market and win $0.70 from place bet @ Bet365.

Garswood is unplaced, I lose $0.92.

However, if we do this with multiple runners, the losses in commission are reduced.

That's the guts of it.

SpeedyBen
6th October 2012, 07:40 PM
CP
I really enjoy the terrific stats that you come up with, many of which I have never seen anywhere else.
You may be interested in my experience with Bet365 (UK). I was a couple of thousand dollars ahead when my bets were suddenly reduced, without any communication, to $2 or $3 dollars. I'm not kidding. When I contacted them they said I was perceived as a threat to their profitability. I said that I would like to close my account and they said that I couldn't withdraw any money that hadn't been "bet through ". I asked them how I was going to do that at $3 a time and I finally found someone smart enough to agree that it was impractical. When I finally got my money back after about 3 weeks I received an email telling me that I was welcome back anytime as I was a valued customer.
I was quite proud to be a threat to them even if I didn't quite believe it.

Chrome Prince
6th October 2012, 08:09 PM
Hi Ben, I have heard many such horror stories about 365 :(
Another big name also limited me to stupid bet sizes without telling me, another withdrew best odds guarantee and another has limited me to win $1,500 on any outcome, horseracing, sports you name it.

However, I have no option but to lose overall with 365, so should not be a threat except for a lucky streak which will probably mean closure.
I intend to milk it using large stakes for as long as I can and then find another angle.
The best thing about this strategy is that by backing three or four horses, I have to end up losing overall with them. And I only win if the longest priced selection gets up.

"crosses fingers".

SpeedyBen
6th October 2012, 11:37 PM
They should love you if you lose.
I was working a similar angle which was supposed to lose overall to them and recoup it with interest on Betfair. Unfortunately, I hit a streak of winners which meant I was winning from them and losing a lesser amount on BF. If I had known how quickly they would react I would have taken steps to deliberately try to lose some large bets to them and recoup on BF even if I lost a little in the process.
It was a shame because I was picking up $700 per week with no risk.