Testing A New Lay Method

[michaelg]

I'm testing it on this thread because I'm listing the rules, and will lay each selection for a liability of $33.

The rules are:

1) Neural default settings.
2) Top or equal top CP points.
3) Not in top 3 Neural total points.
4) Not resuming from a spell. (This rule should almost be mandatory when laying).

The Laying Outsiders method has too little action even though it's in profit so I've decided to test this which has quite a few selections. I've been looking at this method for some time whenever I got the urge and I believe it has been successful even though unfortunately I haven't kept records. I've checked it from last Thursday and there's only been one accident from 18 selections but a few of them started as fave and about 90% of the selections have been at single prices on Unitab, so I'm fairly sure it would be in profit.

Today's selections are:

Strathalbyn
4/1

Echuca
6/2

Kilcoy
4/3
5/1

Muswellbrook
5/5
6/6

Northam
6/2
7/5

Let's see what happens...

[michaelg]

10 minutes ago I listed today's results here, or so I thought. It's disappeared so I'll do it again and hope it's not duplicated somewhere.

From today's 8 selections there were 8 smiles for a profit of $48.00.

I'll give the method a go in the U.K. tonight.

One selection:

Roscommon
03:35 (2/1) Balrath Hope

[Merriguy]

Well done, Michael.

I got 8/8 too! Let's hope it continues.

[The Ocho]

10 minutes ago I listed today's results here, or so I thought. It's disappeared so I'll do it again and hope it's not duplicated somewhere.

From today's 8 selections there were 8 smiles for a profit of $48.00.

I'll give the method a go in the U.K. tonight.

One selection:

Roscommon
03:35 (2/1) Balrath Hope
One of my posts disappeared yesterday. Strange happenings.

By the way, well dong michaelg

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing your findings Michaelg.

Impressive results.

Well done.

[michaelg]

Last night's U.K. selection was a smile of $6.27.

Thanks for the encouragement, let's hope it continues.

[michaelg]

Three selections today:

Goulburn
5/8
7/2

Kilmore
5/2

[michaelg]

The three selections were beaten for a profit of $10.34.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Canterbury
7/6

Ballaraat
7/6

[michaelg]

I was hoping the method would provide more selections so I'm looking at another Lay method. It is based on the CP and $ neural algorithyms which so far have been doing well by betting them as shown on the Something Intresting thread.

I'll list the selections and hope they do well because there's a lot of action and they are mostly in the favoured section of the market.

Canterbury
1/1 -
2/5
5/5
6/6
7/7

Domben
1/6 - already been run and was beaten.
2/3
6/4
7/7
8/6

Balaklava
5/4
6/8
7/4

Ballarat
3/7
6/7
7/9

Belmont
2/6
4/2
5/11
7/7
7/12
8/8

[Toil]

Michael, how can you tell they are mostly in the favoured section of the market?

[michaelg]

Toil, I rate each qualifying race as per the CP and $ algorithyms. From the bottom half I then select the outright best-ranked in the Unitab ratings. When testing the selections many of them were at single figures.

Fortunately today there have so far been 7 smiles from 7 selections but unfortunately the selections have been somewhat disappointing - only a total of $23.17 which more or less equates to an average price of around $10.

Hopefully the success continues because of the high amount of action.

[Toil]

Thanks for sharing that Michael, when you lay and they get beaten do you win different amounts on each runner?

Like if I was to lay 3 runners with a $5 stake on each wouldn't I win the same amount on each if they was beaten?

[michaelg]

Yes, I win different amounts when beaten because I lay them not on the exchange but S.P.

The method had an accident - Dombeen 7/7. It was very close,even the race caller couldn't separate them. If I had laid on the exchange the method would be in profit, but doing that can be dangerous.

After 12 races the loss is $4.26

[michaelg]

Both selections were beaten for a profit of $5.99.


The CP and $ system had two accidents for a loss of $21.19.

However doing the reverse i.e looking at the top half of the CP and $ total points and then selecting the worst of these in the Unitab rankings would have produced a 100% success rate, and a few of them even started as favourites.

So from tomorrow I'll give it a go.

[michaelg]

Three selections today for the CP lay method. So far there's been 13 selections for 13 smiles for a pleasant profit of $64.03 laying each one for a liability of $33.

Bendigo
8/9

Rocky
1/4
7/9


My testing Lay method is pitting the Tele fave against the Unitab rankings. The divvies are quite good and they have all started at single figures. There's yet to be an accident.

Gosford
6/2

Bendigo
3/1
5/2 (currently odds-on)

Rocky
4/4
6/4

[trifectaric]

HI

Michaelg i am using your method in my quaddies trebles to cut down the number of horses i take, but in the other exotics i put them in for 2nd and 3rd, 4th.
if they are in my numbers.
yesterday i put doomben race 7 number 7 in because of its price.
if they are short i leave them out but if over $4.20 they go in.
good luck and let the good times keep rolling.

cheers Rick

[michaelg]

Trifectaric, I hope you had a good day and did not omit Bendigo 8/9 from your quaddies because it should not have been a lay selection because it was resuming from a spell. As I mistakenly listed it as a selection I have to include it in the results.

From the Tele/Unitab method there was one accident from the 5 selections for a profit of $8.41.

[trifectaric]

no i had it in on price but i did not win the quaddie at bendigo.
thanks Rick

[michaelg]

6 selections for the CP lay method. I've double checked that none are resuming.

Moonee Valley
3/5
5/7
6/6

Ipswich
7/2

Port Mac
5/1
6/8
8/7


5 selections for the Tele/Unitab lay method

Port Mac
3/12
7/3
8/6

Nowra
6/1

Ipswich
2/2

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michaelg,
Well Done.
Can you say how one pits the Tele Fav against UniTAB?

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

I look at the Tele outright fave and if it is not in the top three in the Unitab rankings I then lay it.

During the testing period it was on fire, but laying with real money over the past two days hasn't been as successful. There's been two accidents from 10 selections but in spite of that it's in profit of $5.14.

During the testing period I also did the opposite: - and that is if the Unitab sole 100 pointer is not in the top three in the Tele market it then becomes a Lay selection. That too was profitable but I decided against it. However its still in the back of my mind.

I use two common filters:

1) Not resuming from a spell
2) Must have had a minimum of two career starts.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for that Michaelg.

[michaelg]

Unfortunately I did not lay the system yesterday.

There were only four selections, they all were beaten. Their Betfair S.P. prices were $9.10, $3.67, $3.30 and $2.30, so it would have been a good day.

I'll try to list today's selections if there are any.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Bairnsdale
3/1
6/4

Sun Coast
4/1
5/6

Coonamble
1/3
3/11

Hobart
5/2