Here's a Winning System ...

[Barny]

..... on paper only !!!!! Are there enuff selections to satisfy you all ?? Consider this ..... If you have 5 years worth of data, that's approx a max potential of 10,000 selections over Melb, Syd, Brissy, Adelaide and WA. Let's say you only look at the quaddie races, the better ones .... now you've only got 5,000 selections. If your system picks an average of between one and two bets at each meeting (and it would still have to be a pretty loose system to do that, one with very few rules !!!), then you're down to 1,500 selections ..... So before I get lambasted about only having 888 selections ..... please think !!

Weight < 54kgs
SP $4 to $30 ..... Not too many winners found over $30
METRO
Career Sts 10 to 20 ..... Still has improvement left in it
Career Wins > 3 ..... Proven winner
Career Win% > 44% ..... Excellent Win% S/R

888 selections
111 winners
POT 3.3%

BTW, you won't win on this system 'coz the POT is waaaaaay to small to cover the vaguries and cyclical nature of racing. But a little tweak here and there and who knows ??

[evajb001]

You'll prob get a better answer from others but doesn't seem like much of an edge to me. You've discarded most of the races over 5 years only to achieve a 3.3% POT and a 12.5% SR. This would probably also mean that the POT is being propped up by some outlier winners which may be unlikely to occur again as they have over that 5 year period.

This isn't something i'd use but of interest nonetheless. Maybe someone else will find value in it?

I wish UB's tester was still up and running, theres some things of interest I wanted to check out on it. Unfortunately I don't have the databases etc that some here have.

[darkydog2002]

I,m surprised that you even got that POT since your restricting your bets to the WORST bets - 54 KG or less.

Consider these stats .
Horses at 55 KG + represent 36.5 % of races yet Win 50.6 % -
A HUGE advantage.

Thanks for posting though and welcome back.

Cheers
darky

[Barny]

I,m surprised that you even got that POT since your restricting your bets to the WORST bets - 54 KG or less.


Why would you be surprised darkydog2002 ?? There's a lot of instances of good young horses with excellent form racing in a higher class than they've previously done ..... so they're down in the weights !! If the Win% S/R wasn't included at all, and the number of wins wasn't included then there's a LOT of 10.7% ..... and I'll bet you're surprised that it's not a whole lot worse than that ! :)

[darkydog2002]

Sorry.
I thought your were writing of Win Betting not Laying (I dont know anything about Laying.

Cheers
darky

[Barny]

Sitting down darkydog2002 ????

Substitute > 55 kgs into the system

1,660 selections
203 winners
LOT of 14.6%

[Barny]

Sorry.
I thought your were writing of Win Betting not Laying (I dont know anything about Laying.

Cheers
darky
It is about Win betting :)

[SpeedyBen]

I,m surprised that you even got that POT since your restricting your bets to the WORST bets - 54 KG or less.

Consider these stats .
Horses at 55 KG + represent 36.5 % of races yet Win 50.6 % -
A HUGE advantage.

Thanks for posting though and welcome back.

Cheers
darkyDarky
I don't doubt these figures at all but wouldn't the average price of the 55kg+ horses be lower than the under 55kg horses?

[Barny]

Darky
I don't doubt these figures at all but wouldn't the average price of the 55kg+ horses be lower than the under 55kg horses?BINGO !!!!!

You've got to get rid of SOME of the popular filters:)

[moeee]

Darky
I don't doubt these figures at all but wouldn't the average price of the 55kg+ horses be lower than the under 55kg horses?
Nice work SpeedyBen.
Welcome to the Forum.
Hopefully you can enlighten members with more of your observations.
There has been so much nonsense posted by some members who just don't get it.

[Barny]

There has been so much nonsense posted by some members who just don't get it.
I assume you're talking about darkydog2002 as it is his filter of 55kg+ that is being brought into question .....

To call his posts about the 55kg+, of which there have been many, as nonsense is doing him an injustice. I use systems that incorporate 55kg+ with much success, it's just a matter of what other filters you put with it.

BTW moeee, darkydog2002 would have got that figure from Malcom Knowles book, and is doing many of us a favour by posting this fact. As I've said you need to know when it's best to use it ..... ;)

[moeee]

Nonsense Barny - Is a Heading of a Post called "Here's a winning System" and then in the very first post saying " BTW - you can't win on this System"

[norisk]

nice pickup moeee;)

[Barny]

I've given you facts ! ..... then I've given my opinion ..... I've always been of the opinion that you need a POT of 50% to be able to ride out the rough times ahead and the cyclical nature of racing.

That's 2 systems in the past fortnight that I've posted that have statistically shown a POT. At least it's a start for you moeee.

[moeee]

You have been TOUd again. This post is deleted.

Personal attacks on the integrity and motives of members contributing to this Forum is NOT ON. We want to encourage members to contribute. You have done the exact opposite. This post is completely OUT OF ORDER. Enough is enough.

Suspended for 14 days as of now.

[Vortech]

Nice work Barny.

I believe you may have found something

[darkydog2002]

Speedyben,
Not at all and a higher strike rate as well.
Cheers
darky