Weight as a Filter 55kg+

[Barny]

This filter has been bandied about on this forum by darkydog2002 many times, and I believe he got it from Malcolm Knowles book.

In 2 of my systems I use TAB 1 to 6 but have had a tinker around tonight and replaced TAB 1 to 6 with 55kg+ and it's made an impressive difference. I wonder how the Pareto system would go by substituting the weight for TAB 1 to 6 ???

Thanks also for your input moeee, I wouldn't have tinkered had it not been for you.

[moeee]

I tinker all the time Barny.
Sometimes I get better.
Sometimes i get worse.
But in the long Run I end up just the same had I not tinkered.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Barny,
Yes I did.
I try and get as much research as I can from this source as its applicable to Australian Racing conditions.
Cheers
darky

[Barny]

Hi darkydog2002, I've always paid little respect to weight because of my unshakeable belief that unless there's a really large weight pull in favour of one horse over another, it makes no real difference. But now I'll look for weight as a good indicator to class, and I do have a system or two that uses weight variance as a filter to determine which horses are going up and down in class.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Barny,
I,ve always been a weight man myself as I figure if its good enough for the
Official Race Club Handicappers its good enough for me.
Cheers
darky

[norisk]

There have been a couple close finishes today where undoubtedly weight has been the deciding factor between winner & loser.

So ignore weight at your peril!...a phrase my doc has often uttered;)

[Barny]

norisk, what were they and what were the weights please ?

[Vortech]

The run of the day I thought with the 59kg was Maluckyday. Tanby only had 55.5kg.

[Barny]

Horses are fit muscular beast weighing say 600kg. To think that 3.5kg, which is 0.58% of it's overall weight is in the top 10 of influencing factors on the outcome of a race is something I cannot grasp at all. It would crap more than that in the mounting yard .......

Maybe weight is in the top 20 of variables, but it's not in the top 10.

[Lord Greystoke]

From memory (because I don't have his books anymore)...

One of Don Scott's points regards the importance of weight carried is that at the margin eg on a wet track.. an extra kilo or 2 could "stop an express train" - may not have been the exact words he used, but pretty close I would say.

Using an everyday example.. a drop of water weighs how much? Dropper it onto a free-standing house of cards at the right/wrong point and the whole thing comes down.

LG

[norisk]

Barny, when I find time I will list them (I worked on over 50 races yesterday & cannot recall offhand which they were)

Regards your comment -

"Horses are fit muscular beast weighing say 600kg. To think that 3.5kg, which is 0.58% of it's overall weight is in the top 10 of influencing factors on the outcome of a race is something I cannot grasp at all. It would crap more than that in the mounting yard .......

Maybe weight is in the top 20 of variables, but it's not in the top 10."

- if this had any element of truth to it then why would we have Handicappers or WFA scales etc etc, techniques & theories which have developed over the last century or so??

If weight had no meaning whatsoever then why wouldn't we just let them all run around with whatever on their backs, jeez I might even get a gig, as I used to ride the a heck of a trail pony back in the day;)

Little hint for you - 'dead weight'

[CosMos]

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Weight%20and%20its%20Effect%20On%20the%20Outcome%20of%20Thoroughbred%20Races.pdf

[SpeedyBen]

There have been a couple close finishes today where undoubtedly weight has been the deciding factor between winner & loser.

So ignore weight at your peril!...a phrase my doc has often uttered;)In Sydney and Melbourne yesterday the 18 winners carried 2.5 kg more than the 18 runners up.

[Barny]

Little hint for you - 'dead weight'
Thanks for the hint :) Surely a kilo or two couldn't possibly be a top ten influencing factor norisk ?? If it was, why then is saddlecloth number 1 the most prolific winner ?? And Melbourne Cup winners have won with plenty of weight !!

[norisk]

Barny, you are making the incorrect assumption that the top weight cannot be advantaged by the allocated weights!

[demodocus]

Here are the Win Relative Frequencies for various weights both carried and allocated. Sample 1.9 million.

Weight and Win Relative Freq.
Weight Carr.. Alloc. Weight ...Carr..... Alloc.
50 ... 0.501 ... 0.518 ... 56 ... 1.212 ... 1.170
51 ... 0.627 ... 0.508 ....57 ....1.386 ....1.349
52 ....0.651.... 0.512 ....58 ....1.451 ....1.428
53 ....0.692 ....0.602 ....59 ....1.549.... 1.566
54 ....0.802 ....0.761 ....60 ....1.557 ....1.556
55.... 1.044 ....1.003 ....60+. 1.272 ....1.292

55 kgs is the "advantage limit". Of course it doesn't mean that <55kgs can't win it simply provides an indication of the size of the advantage.

[ianian]

I think that for general reasons 55 to 58 kg makes a good rule as this drops a lot of poor horses and protects form carrying too much weight over longer distances.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Demodocus,

Thanks for the Weight Win Relative Frequencies.

Is that for all Australian races 7 days a week?

Is it possible to get the results for Metropolitan races only?

[SpeedyBen]

Barny, you are making the incorrect assumption that the top weight cannot be advantaged by the allocated weights!With the raising of the minimum weight without a corresponding rise in the top weight the toppie will be more advantaged than ever. However the price will adjust accordingly taking away any overall advantage from a punting perspective.

[norisk]

Just need to keep an eye out for value such as Perth R7 last Saturday, ridiculous price esp on BF