Don Scott Market

[michaelg]

Just to pass some time I looked at Don Scott's market (the worksheet on the R & S Website).

I applied the following simple rule.

In D.S's market I hypothetically backed every horse in every race that he quoted under $10 in his market providing that there were a maximum of three of them.

From Sunday there were 63 of these qualifying races for a total outlay of $153 for a return of $153.70.

However I also looked at races where there were only a maximum of two horses under $10 in his market

The result wasn't too bad. There were 31 of these races, and the winner was struck in 17 of them for a strike rate of 54%

More importantly, the total outlay was $45 for a return of $65.20 which is an amazing POT of 44%. A profit was obtained in all three days.

The results shown above are Unitab divvies.

I know three day's results can't be taken too seriously but it might be worth thinking about.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Michaelg,
Definitely worth looking at.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Added that one to my bag of tricks.

[michaelg]

Hi, Darky.

I didn't mention this but I think it might also be worthwhile. However unfortunately I didn't keep any records.

In these qualifying races if all horses shown under $20 in his market were boxed in quinellas (didn't look at trifectas) then it might also have been profitable. There were some surprisingly large quins for relatively small outlays.

[darkydog2002]

I always like your thoughts as there based on logic.
Quinella one added also.

I will test both on Country tracks as I prefer these to City meetings.

Cheers and thank you.
darky

[darkydog2002]

What I,ll do is add 1 and use that as my minimum acceptable price (for Value)
i.e
M.Bridge
R 1 H 1 + 4 (Need $3)

Looks like no.1 @$3.20 FIXED

[darkydog2002]

$3.10 now for 4 Fixed

[michaelg]

Hi, Darky, hope you won today.

By my reckoning there were 22 selections for a disappointing return on NSW TAB of $16.20.

I believe the quinella outlay was also $22 for a return of $38 and the trifecta outlay was $66 for a return of $179.

These results for the above two forms of exotic betting are when there are only a maximum of two selections that are under $10 in the D.S. market, and then all others under $20 in his market are included for boxed quinellas and trifectas.

I've had a very good day with my two Lay the Field methods, and with one more race to go (Northam R7) I can't lose.

[darkydog2002]

Broke even at M.Bridge with the $5.20 winner in R 4..
Cheers.

[UselessBettor]

I tested a period of 7 days at the beginning of the year using this. It showed a loss of $54 on straight $1 bets.

Might just be a short term trend.

[Lord Greystoke]

How about <=3 kilos

LG

[michaelg]

Thanks, U.B.

That's very disappointing. How many selections were there?

Do you know if there was anything consistent, such as state of the track, size of the field?...

[UselessBettor]

I just ran a quick test. I didn't include any other variables.

I also tested 2 months worth of just 1 selection under $10 and it showed a loss of about 15 units over 243 selections. Tatts prices were used.

[UselessBettor]

I ran 2 selections under $10 for a month

There were 717 selections for a loss of 151.90 using tatts figures.

[Lord Greystoke]

FR <=3 kg
$1 each selection
Tatts dividends
n = eliminate inferior selections (Neurals)

Canterbury
R4
4
14
3 W $2.40
12
13

R5
6
1
2
5 W $11.60

R6
3 W $1.90
1

R7
1
2
12
6

Summary
OUT =10
IN = 15.90
POT = 59%


LG

[Lord Greystoke]

FR <=3 kg
$1 each selection
Tatts dividends
n = eliminate inferior selections (Neurals)

Caulfield
R5
8
6
11
10
2 W $3.50

R6
4
2
1
3

R7
2
5 $2.70
12

R8
2
10 $2.60


Summary
OUT =14
IN = 8.80
LOT = 37%

Not so good that time.

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Sorry mg,
Didn't mean to hijack your thread with my don scott doodles.

Will trundle off to the QQ thread and brush down some cobwebs, pour myself a stiff brandy etc

LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L. G.

It's not hijacking because its about the same subject.

Now for my doodles.

Yesterday, in races where the top two selections were under $10 in the D.S. market but not in the top two of the Tele market then laying that selection(s) had a good day. This also applies to races where the top three selections were under $10 in D.S. market but not in the top three in the Tele market.

There were 19 of these selections for 19 smiles. I might give it a go today.

[darkydog2002]

On the Win Side Michael have you considered the easier races 1 - 4 and the TC they were rated for.
Cheers
darky

[michaelg]

Hi, Darky.

I'm sorry but I've already lost interest, however I will keep it in mind if/when I look at the D.S. market again.

That's my problem - laying is much more appealing to me than betting

Hope you are profiting from the method.

[darkydog2002]

Down the tube today Michael.
Back to Bgahwans NEW @$3 +.eh.

I will keep looking for ways to improve it though and as a base I reckon its got something.
At least thats my "gut" feeling.

Cheers
darky