My 75% plays

[evajb001]

Hey guys,

here are the plays today for my 75% thing on my ratings that was discussed in the other thread. Note i'm just testing these and while I might be on some, i won't be betting on all. Ill post my top 2 raters for each race and any with YES written to them are plays.

Caulfield - Race 1

No.
5 A Time For Julia
1 Villa Splendido YES

Caulfield - Race 4

No.
3 Cameo
12 Summerbliss YES

Caulfield - Race 5

No.
4 Galah
5 King's Rose YES

Caulfield - Race 7

No.
5 Lightinthenite YES
12 Waterford Hill

Randwick - Race 2

No.
2 Magita YES
9 Secluded

Randwick - Race 3

No.
9 Moriarty
8 Merlin Mustang YES

Randwick - Race 4

No.
7 Snitsky
4 Upshot YES

Randwick - Race 5

No.
5 Jolie Bay YES
4 Ichihara YES

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
6 Transporter YES
2 Grey Assignment YES

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
11 Memorable Moment YES
14 Rodrigeuz

Morphettville - Race 3

No.
7 Le Roi YES
2 Ring Me Not

Ascot - Race 2

No.
2 Modello YES
4 Flag Officer YES

Ascot - Race 5

No.
3 Global Flirt YES
1 Ten Degrees

Ascot - Race 6

No.
5 Travinator YES
7 Watermans Bay YES

Ascot - Race 8

No.
2 Texan YES
13 Kerrific

Ascot - Race 9

No.
5 Iseethingsyoudon't YES
13 Jaja Saab

[UselessBettor]

Are the YES ones the top raters ? ie what makes one selection a play out of the two ?

Thanks for posting these. Will be interesting to see how they go.

[UselessBettor]

BTW off to a great start with Caulfield Race 1. Winner and 4th.

[evajb001]

forgot to add this earlier:

Morphettville - Race 5

No.
8 Classy Chloe YES
4 The Eighth Maker

[UselessBettor]

The selections have so far mostly been putting in a very good effort in most races. There has been 6 winners from 10 races so far.

Unfortunately the odds haven't been too great :( But still the strike rate is very good. Its close to breakeven on best tote by my figures.

[evajb001]

had quite a few 2nds as well i think, i'll have to go back and check over them all carefully though.

[UselessBettor]

Great Work today

Winner at BR8. 16.70 on Tatts.

You can't show a loss today now. so anymore wins are a bonus.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi evajb001,

Has been a masterclass today,
Thanks for the journey to date!

Cheers LG

[evajb001]

A successful day largely due to the big winner in the last at Eagle Farm however would've been in profit anyway. There were 25 bets all up with 11 winners for a 44% strike rate. The combined POT was 86.40%.

With 25 $1 bets, it would have been in profit by $21.60. I'll continue to post the plays for a while and we'll see if it remains in profit.

[TheSchmile]

Well done evajb001,

You laid the cards down and they came up trumps.

Crazy game this. A man such as yourself with the investment/measured POT type angle should do very well indeed!

Best of luck mate, in your case I don't think you should need it!

[SpeedyBen]

A good day's work.
May I ask how far back your testing goes?

[evajb001]

1 April 2012 is when I started the backtesting, 2066 races have been backtested so far.

Plays for today, i'll only list the horses that are being bet on today:

Gosford - Race 8

No.
2 Oakfield Honour
3 Slivovitz

Seymour - Race 7

No.
3 Callanish
5 Lord Of Brazil

Seymour - Race 8

No.
4 Your Honour

Seymour - Race 9

No.
13 Shihabi
4 Euphoric Realm

Naracoorte - Race 6

No.
1 Thorny Devil

[UselessBettor]

Evajb001,

Looking good again today. Also jsut a heads up I sent you an email.

My figures show 4 horses have run for a $5.60 return on tatts so far.

[evajb001]

4 winners from 8 bets today for 50% SR and a 84% POT

For the 2 days of posting the plays on here so far we have a 44% SR and an 83% POT. Will post again tomorrow morning if I get the time. Note the returns are based on Tatts odds.

I actually bet the plays myself today with Top Tote, $5 on my top rater $3 on any 2nd rater plays. $34 Outlay for $73.60 return or a POT of 116% myself. This was largely due to 3 winners being top rater so more dollars on them and also the following odds differentials:

Callanish (Tatts $2.20 - Top Tote $2.30)
Your Honour (Tatts $3.40 - Top Tote $3.50)
Shihabi (Tatts $3.80 - Top Tote $4.60)
Slivovitz (Tatts $5.30 - Top Tote $7.20)

[UselessBettor]

4 winners from 8 bets today for 50% SR and a 84% POT

For the 2 days of posting the plays on here so far we have a 44% SR and an 83% POT. Will post again tomorrow morning if I get the time. Note the returns are based on Tatts odds.

I actually bet the plays myself today with Top Tote, $5 on my top rater $3 on any 2nd rater plays. $34 Outlay for $73.60 return or a POT of 116% myself. This was largely due to 3 winners being top rater so more dollars on them and also the following odds differentials:

Callanish (Tatts $2.20 - Top Tote $2.30)
Your Honour (Tatts $3.40 - Top Tote $3.50)
Shihabi (Tatts $3.80 - Top Tote $4.60)
Slivovitz (Tatts $5.30 - Top Tote $7.20)

very nice wins this weekend

[evajb001]

No plays today gents due to limited race quality and field sizes.

[TheSchmile]

No plays today gents due to limited race quality and field sizes.

Smart way to operate evajb001. Today's a good day to review and relax.

Have a cracker one and all!

[evajb001]

Today's plays people:

Mackay - Race 6

No.
1 Blazing Lion

Scone - Race 6

No.
2 Texan Lad
4 Kartini

Kyneton - Race 7

No.
13 Prince Hussar

[evajb001]

Bit unlucky that Pince Hussar didn't get up in our first play running 2nd. Just had a winner on Texan Lad and Kartini ran 3rd so all plays today have ran a place. If Blazing Lion can get up it will be a very successful day, otherwise we will be looking at a small LOT today but nothing concerning.

As it stands at the moment on a POT of 3% betting all plays flat stakes, however with my $5 and $3 staking i'm on POT of 19% currently. lets go Blazing Lion!!

[mattio]

Texan Lad is my horse, he was always going to have a big run first up today :)

[SpeedyBen]

I like horses first up over 1100.
Good luck.

[evajb001]

Small LOT for the day, will update with relevant overall stats etc once I get home. Nothing i'm concerned about though, still think what i've got in place has its merit's and i'll be continuining to bet based on my $5 and $3 staking.

Will reply to your email tonight as well UB, been busy of late.

[UselessBettor]

Small LOT for the day, will update with relevant overall stats etc once I get home. Nothing i'm concerned about though, still think what i've got in place has its merit's and i'll be continuining to bet based on my $5 and $3 staking.

Will reply to your email tonight as well UB, been busy of late.
When you get time evajb001 is fine.

A small LOT is not a big deal compared to the nice POT's you made the last few days.

[evajb001]

Ok so heres the update so far:

Today:
1 Winner from 4 bets (25% SR)
Straight Staking 28% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 19% LOT

Overall:
42% Strike Rate (16 Winners 38 Bets)
Straight Staking 72% POT
$5/$3 Staking 87% POT (+$142.20 in 3 days)

Note using Top Tote or something similar increases the POT and obviously profit quite a bit. Will do my best to have the plays posted over the next 5 days however will be in melbourne and adelaide for work/personal reasons.

[Ricardo48]

Doing well evajb001, I hope it continues for you mate.

[moeee]

Congratulations evajb1000 for actually monitoring the results.
Very few do - including me.
Although in my case I don't actually know my wagers until I see the available Odds.
I have tried prior , but it just don't work for me.
Barely works as it is!!!

[Lord Greystoke]

Ok so heres the update so far:

Today:
1 Winner from 4 bets (25% SR)
Straight Staking 28% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 19% LOT

Overall:
42% Strike Rate (16 Winners 38 Bets)
Straight Staking 72% POT
$5/$3 Staking 87% POT (+$142.20 in 3 days)



With your single selections, are you staking them at $5?

Cheers LG

[evajb001]

Every top rater selection is staked at $5, and 2nd rater selections that occur as well are staked at $3 due to the reduced POT and SR on these selections in my backtesting.

Cheers moeee, at one stage earlier this year i was super disciplined monitoring my bets on all sports (NBA, NHL, Horses) and was up a significant amount of money because i was tightly monitoring my money management, got too relaxed about it started missing days and chase betting etc etc and ended up losing quite a bit although was still in profit and took out $1k after starting with $100.

Monitoring bets i think is a must for almost all who want to make a profit long term unless your personality/mentality is a lot better then most others and you can stay disciplined without monitoring your bankroll closely.

[evajb001]

Here we are for today gents, will do my best to have plays posted over the next 4 days but may be hard while i'm away. Either way I can update with results when I get back as long as people can take me at my word for what transpired while I was away.

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
3 Ticket To Dream
6 Dream'n'ignite

Eagle Farm - Race 6

No.
7 Typhoon Red

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
6 Haitchque

Warwick Farm - Race 5

No.
9 Binalong Road

Warwick Farm - Race 6

No.
2 Blazing Dragon

Warwick Farm - Race 7

No.
5 Atsuta
4 A Real Prince

Geelong - Race 4

No.
1 Under The Eiffel
3 Essington

Geelong - Race 6

No.
7 Our Desert Warrior

Geelong - Race 9

No.
2 New York
5 Sabres

Ascot - Race 2

No.
1 Helena Miss

Ascot - Race 5

No.
1 Zero To Sixty
2 The Cavalieri

[UselessBettor]

thanks for posting them.

A couple of winners so far but the odds today are unfortunately terrible.
A lot of seconds too. Still a few races to go.

[UselessBettor]

Finishing up with a flurry of winners.

[evajb001]

Hey all, sorry haven't had a chance to post today. One play has already ran at ballarat, it was race 5, spin the bottle won and was top rater as well. The horse that ran second was also my 2nd rater and a bet as well.

There are still 2 plays remaining that haven't ran:

Geraldton race 4, number 1.

Geraldton race 7, number 9.

I gotta run will try get tomorrow and Saturday's bets on here earlier. With the ballarat winner today is already in profit at a POT of almost 100%. will have a full break down of stats when I'm back home.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hey all, sorry haven't had a chance to post today. One play has already ran at ballarat, it was race 5, spin the bottle won and was top rater as well. The horse that ran second was also my 2nd rater and a bet as well.

There are still 2 plays remaining that haven't ran:

Geraldton race 4, number 1.

Geraldton race 7, number 9.

I gotta run will try get tomorrow and Saturday's bets on here earlier. With the ballarat winner today is already in profit at a POT of almost 100%. will have a full break down of stats when I'm back home.

You done the business, my son!

Cheers LG

PS hopefully you are also getting work done and/or having a bit of a 'jolly'??

[evajb001]

Hi your lordship,

Had a good day on the punt today more then making up for yesterday. I haven't done the sums but the POT today would be over 100%.

I'm at the melb aquarium at the moment enjoying a brew as a part of our conference :) anyway better get back to it.

Enjoy all!

[Lord Greystoke]

A champion effort from a champion punter / bloke

Enjoy the moment.

LG

[evajb001]

Hey gents,

Sporting an aching head today but my friend has Passed on the plays for today. Note first number is top rater and any second numbers are obviously second rater. Let's have another highly profitable day.

MV = Moonee Valley

MV race 1 - no. 1 & 4
MV race 4 - no. 6 & 9
MV race 5 - no. 2 & 4
MV race 6 - no. 1
MV race 7 - no. 2

Again will update stats upon my return, will do my best to get tomorrows plays posted but can't promise anything as will have limited time in Adelaide.

[UselessBettor]

MV = Moonee Valley

MV race 1 - no. 1 & 4
MV race 4 - no. 6 & 9
MV race 5 - no. 2 & 4
MV race 6 - no. 1
MV race 7 - no. 2


Thanks for posting them again. Enjoy your conference.

[evajb001]

Hi guys,

Got these from my mate this morning should be all correct best of luck.

Moonee Valley - Race 3
No.
3
Midnight Martini
YES
5
Destiny's Kiss
**
Moonee Valley - Race 4
No.
7
Cavalry Rose
6
Essay Raider
YES
Moonee Valley - Race 5
No.
1
It's A Dundeel
YES
2
Viking Star
YES
Moonee Valley - Race 7
**
No.
**
2
Solzhenitsyn
**
1
Rangirangdoo
YES
**
**
Moonee Valley - Race 8
**
No.
**
12
Pierro
YES
**
9
Ocean Park
**
**
Doomben - Race 3
**
No.
**
5
Run Royal Run
YES
**
4
Eureka Jack
**
**
**
Doomben - Race 7
**
No.
**
2
Beseech
**
9
Flying Jet
YES
**
**
Rosehill - Race 4
**
No.
**
1
Rebel Dane
**
6
Specific Choice
YES
**
**
Rosehill - Race 6
**
No.
**
1
Malavio
YES
**
8
Coup Ay Tee
**
**
Gold Coast - Race 7
**
No.
**
1
Speeding Dragon
YES
**
2
Currency Boy
YES
**
**
Morphettville Pk - Race 2
**
No.
**
6
Eclair Spargo
YES
**
1
Alcohol
**
**
Morphettville Pk - Race 3
**
No.
**
1
Effcee
**
3
Little Less Lip
YES
**
**
Morphettville Pk - Race 6
**
No.
**
7
Danish Spy
**
1
La Praline
YES
**
**
Ascot - Race 4
**
No.
**
2
Global Flirt
YES
**
1
Verdello Blue
**
**
Ascot - Race 7
**
No.
**
11
Luke's Luck
YES
**
5
Westriver Kevydonn
**
**
Ascot - Race 8
**
No.
**
11
Checkpoint
**
7
Solsay
YES

Sorry for the poor format, posting on my phone. If the top horse has 'YES' next to it, it's a bet. If the second horse does as well it's a bet. If only the second horse does both are still a bet.

[UselessBettor]

thanks again for posting them.

[UselessBettor]

so far a good day of placings for seconds and thirds.

[UselessBettor]

32 selections returned 32.10 against tatts prices.

[evajb001]

Hi All,

I'm back in the office now after a long and draining 4 days of work plus catching up with mates having long drinking sessions. Went to the soccer saturday afternoon for the first time to watch Adelaide United which was good fun, something i'd do again. I'll go through the past 4-5 days stats and give you a big run down later tonight of the individual day stats and the overall stats since I started posting the plays in here. I'm pretty certain its still in profit, also i'm not sure all the plays I posted would have been plays had I been able to review the races myself each day but i'll cover off on all that tonight. Only one play for today:

Wellington - Race 4

No. 6 Dunderry

[evajb001]

Here are the stats gents:

Wednesday:
25% SR
Straight Staking 12% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 22% LOT

Thursday:
50% SR
Straight Staking 125% POT
$5/$3 Staking 150% POT

Friday:
25% SR
Straight Staking 8% LOT
$5/$3 Staking 9% POT

Saturday:
29% SR
Straight Staking 4% POT
$5/$3 Staking 3% POT

Sunday:
38% SR
Straight Staking 79% POT
$5/$3 Staking 92% POT

Overall:
35% Strike Rate (32 Winners 91 Bets)
Straight Staking 40% POT
$5/$3 Staking 48% POT (+$190.50 in 8 days)

Note the top selection has performed a lot better with the following overall stats:

SR 43%
POT 67%
+40.2 units

[evajb001]

1 winner from 1 bet today gents. Paid $2.90 on tatts but $3.40 for top tote.

All of my stats are recorded at tatts prices but if your using BF, Top Tote or something similar you can probably add a good 10% to the $ profit and maybe 5% to the POT figures.

Overall we're +$201.00 in 9 days now with the $5/$3 staking and the top rater only is +42.1 units now. I'm starting to be pretty re-assured that at the very least my top rater using this 75% method is profitable over the long term. I'll continue to post the plays for another week or two for those that are interested and if it continues to be profitable then I figure i've proven my ratings to be profitable in forward testing :).

[The Ocho]

Well done evajb001. Looking good.

[peakester]

At the start of this thread, you said that the idea of 75% plays was first discussed in another thread.

evajb could you please supply tthe link where the notion of 75% plays was first introduced. Thanking you and thanks for supplying your selections.

[evajb001]

I can't remember what thread it was now but I can explain quickly.

Basically I do my ratings by applying a score to each horse, and using the scores I estimate my odds for each horse. Once i've got these odds I sort to find my top rated horse, 2nd rated and so on.

If the odds of my top rated horse are less than 75% of the 2nd rated horse, then its a play. If the 2nd rated horse is less than 75% of the 3rd rated horses odds, then the top 2 raters are a play.

I hope that makes sense, if not I can provide examples.

[UselessBettor]

At the start of this thread, you said that the idea of 75% plays was first discussed in another thread.

evajb could you please supply tthe link where the notion of 75% plays was first introduced. Thanking you and thanks for supplying your selections.
Its in the Quadrella thread but I can't remember the exact post.

[evajb001]

It's in the following thread:

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=25273

It starts off by looking at laying my bottom 3 rated horses but moves into a discussion of 75% plays.

[evajb001]

Plays for today gents, not exactly excited about any of these, the quality of fields today was pretty poor but see how we go:

Townsville - Race 5

No. 2 Rattus Conatus
No. 9 Slick Line

Townsville - Race 6

No. 5 Panecillo

Taree - Race 7

No. 13 Scarrzam

Seymour - Race 7

No. 9 Get Pronto

[evajb001]

UB, a question for you. The fib sequence you used on short priced harness/galops in another thread, do you think that may work on my top rater for a place?

So far in all my back testing the longest run of outs was about 9 and thats solely for the win, unfortunately I haven't kept any place stats. May be something to monitor with my plays from now on?

[UselessBettor]

UB, a question for you. The fib sequence you used on short priced harness/galops in another thread, do you think that may work on my top rater for a place?

So far in all my back testing the longest run of outs was about 9 and thats solely for the win, unfortunately I haven't kept any place stats. May be something to monitor with my plays from now on?
It could work. Best to just run it over the selections for as long as you can to be certain you are comfortable with it. I would say at least 4-6 months of testing the staking and at least a full bank coverage before doing it live.

[evajb001]

Here are today's plays gents, will post Ascot plays (if there are any) shortly.

Kembla Grange - Race 2

No.
4 Scram

Kembla Grange - Race 5

No.
2 Floor Show
4 Deralon

Kembla Grange - Race 6

No.
2 Kings Dominion
6 Nissile

Bendigo - Race 5

No.
2 Lone Star

Bendigo - Race 6

No.
2 Consecrate
7 Scottish Queen

[evajb001]

and Ascot:

Ascot - Race 1

No.
8 Secret Times
2 Kimberley Cowboy

Ascot - Race 6

No.
4 Terkel

Ascot - Race 8

No.
1 Ask Me Nicely

[evajb001]

One play today, in a bit of a slump at the moment, not sure if its due to the really poor quality of the mid-week races due to the top quality of the weekend races or something similar but ah well. I'll update with full stats either tonight or tomorrow.

Rockhampton - Race 6

No. 6 Rishona

[mattio]

Don't worry too much mate, my suite of systems just had it's first losing month in almost a year so it could just be the lower end of the cycle for you - today is the start of a brand new month :)

[TheSchmile]

Peaks and troughs evajb001.

As long as the peaks outweigh the troughs, it's business time. :)

[evajb001]

Turns out yesterday in that same race I actually would've had the winner if i'd done my ratings just before the race. Due to the change in track conditions from dead to good, it changed my ratings a bit and the winner would've actually been my play. Something to look out for in the future I guess.

No plays at ipswich today so only plays are on the night races at canterbury and MV. Will post them up later today lads.

It's likely ill be out of the house having a punt tomorrow so will do my best to have everything posted before 11am SA time.

[evajb001]

Hi people, feeling good about these tonight:

Canterbury - Race 3

No.
2 Triumphant

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
1 Sabres
7 Street Crier


Even though its not a play I also like the short fave in race 4 at Canterbury. Enjoy your friday night people :)

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice work evajb... just picked up 6s at BF on race 3

Cheers LG

[evajb001]

nice one ill probably get $3.20 or so at best on Top Tote. Maybe I should drop $200 in a BF account and start betting this system 100% seriously myself. While i've been posting the plays here seriously i've been betting them myself on and off due to being busy etc etc. Obviously the system works so its probably time i follow it on BF, get the best odds and let it run its course.

Might start tomorrow, leave my sportsbet account for more ad hoc betting on the NBA and horses etc.

[Lord Greystoke]

Pls do mate - I obviously snatched a lucky break just before the odds tumbled down. I usually get the timing wrong I might add !

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

LG, You could lay it now at $3.50 or whatever it is for a free bet and you're guaranteed not to lose anything should, for whatever reason, the horse not prevail. Happy Days.

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice one TO. Placed 1st lay bet ever at 3.30.

LG

[The Ocho]

Nice one TO. Placed 1st lay bet ever at 3.30.

LG
Nice one LG. You didn't lose anything however if you had have hedged the bet you would have won some money no matter what horse won which is what I try and do when trading.

[evajb001]

Eagle Farm - Race 3

No.
2 One Face Value

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
1 Fillydelphia
3 Morning Captain

Eagle Farm - Race 5

No.
5 Ticket to Dream
6 Cracco

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
3 Balkuin

Flemington - Race 1

No.
4 Al Aneed

Flemington - Race 3

No.
1 Dear Demi

Flemington - Race 4

No.
9 Snitzerland

Flemington - Race 5

No.
7 Ocean Park

Flemington - Race 6

No.
1 It's A Dundeel
5 Hvasstan

Flemington - Race 7

No.
1 Streama

Flemington - Race 9

No.
4 Fawkner

Rosehill - Race 3

No.
2 Bound To Blush

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
10 Drinks All Round

Rosehill - Race 6

No.
7 Under The Sun
2 Merlin Mustang

Rosehill - Race 7

No.
9 Secluded
4 Whisperossa

Morphettville - Race 6

No.
5 Aregee McLaren
6 Lucky Sunday

Ascot - Race 1

No.
10 Gingerman
7 Pure Adrenalin

Ascot - Race 4

No.
5 Travinator

Ascot - Race 5

No.
6 Stay Lady Stay
2 Lunar Image

Ascot - Race 8

No.
7 Iseethingsyoudon't
11 Hey Blondie

[UselessBettor]

Good luck today.

[mattio]

It's funny how different people can come up with same ratings with no doubt completely different methods, all those are my top rated as well only a few of the ones where you list 2 are swapped about.

[UselessBettor]

Not a great day today so far.

I would suggest you wait a lot longer till you start betting these as it appears to be failing at the moment. Is this just a temporary run of bad luck, or a result of backfitting the ratings ? You won't know till you have done a lot more live selections.

[macs]

I don't think too many using systems would have had a good day today UB, you'd need to be a genius to pick many of the winners in the prominent races today and there aren't too many of them around.

Eva, do you use Bet Selector?

[UselessBettor]

I don't think too many using systems would have had a good day today UB, you'd need to be a genius to pick many of the winners in the prominent races today and there aren't too many of them around.

Eva, do you use Bet Selector?
True there were quite a few longer shots winning today.

[SpeedyBen]

Melbourne Cup week often throws up unfathomable results.

[Lord Greystoke]

Melbourne Cup week often throws up unfathomable results.

.. and pay day for the bookies?

Somehow that makes sense in a way,
Logical given volumes and the objective of their trade

LG

[TheSchmile]

Spot on SpeedyBen,

On your Average Saturday there are 3-5 half decent chances and a couple that have been set specifically for the race.

Come Melbourne Cup Carnival and it's more like 80-90% of the field has been set for the race.

Tough going for us mere mortals.

[UselessBettor]

No tips today ?

[SpeedyBen]

Spot on SpeedyBen,

On your Average Saturday there are 3-5 half decent chances and a couple that have been set specifically for the race.

Come Melbourne Cup Carnival and it's more like 80-90% of the field has been set for the race.

Tough going for us mere mortals.I thought that there were only 2 chances in the Mackinnon and that Alcopop was unlucky and not far off Ocean Park last time they met. I had access to the bookie who is offering double odds on all Grp 1 this spring so i decided that Alco offered a good chance at $11. Bewdy!!

[TheSchmile]

I thought that there were only 2 chances in the Mackinnon and that Alcopop was unlucky and not far off Ocean Park last time they met. I had access to the bookie who is offering double odds on all Grp 1 this spring so i decided that Alco offered a good chance at $11. Bewdy!!
Smart betting.

[evajb001]

Hi Guys,

Sorry for being out of action for a few days. There haven't been many plays anyhow due to the massive fields etc and plus it was my birthday monday (next year its melb cup day, might have to make an effort to attend).

In reply quickly to macs: No I don't use Bet Selector

I made a few sheckles on Green Moon yesterday so its time to live bet my 75% plays. I'll be starting with just a $200 bankroll, betting 1% of previous max daily bankroll.

i.e. Day 1 bankroll goes from $200 to $215
All bets on Day 2 are then 1% of $215 or $2.15

Day 2 bankroll goes from $215 to $207
All bets on Day 3 are still 1% of $215 or $2.15 and so on

I'll be posting all plays in here for now and we'll see how it goes. I'll be keeping very close records of all bets in a spreadsheet i've got which shows all stats etc that I think i've shared on here previously. I'll also be looking for any opportunities to adjust the method slightly or my staking however I wont be doing anything outragous as this seems to be profitable over the long-term.

Any questions/queries then fire away, i'll be updating on lunch break with today's plays. Also note from now on i'll only be backing my top rater using this method and not the second rater. While the second rater has shown to be profitable previously, it was only marginal in some months and i'd prefer to just follow my toppy. I'll look at using a combination of SB or BF to execute my bets as well, mainly SB to start with and then possibly move towards BF in the future.

Cheers

[mattio]

Good luck with it mate, any chance you could post up your spreadsheet for download as it was very good.

[evajb001]

All bets placed with stake of $2

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
4 Defenceman

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
2 Silver Command

Grafton - Race 4

No.
2 River Spirit

Kyneton - Race 5

No.
10 Ferguson

Kyneton - Race 7

No.
2 Streets Away

[UselessBettor]

not a bad day with a nice win in Kyneton Race 7.

Also Happy birthday for the other day.

[SpeedyBen]

$22 winners are not easy to find. Well done.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Evaj.

This is a method of staking one may like to experiment with ,using a dry run first.

Say our base bet is 1 unit on a 200 unit bank.

Now divide your assessed price into the 2nd runners assessed price.

That resulting figure is then multiplied by the base bet of 1 unit.

Example
Top rated accessed price is 2.00
2nd Top rated accessed price is say 3.50
2.00 into 3.50 = 1.75
1.75 x 1.00 base bet = O/L 1.75 units

The idea is to take advantage on the accessed price's , price gap.
The bigger the gap , the more that is put on.
Up to a max of 3 times the gap difference.
Meaning that a max of 1.5% of bank is ever made on a strong chance Horse.

This can be a powerful technique of maximising profits if all goes our way on the day.

[evajb001]

mattio - i'm working on giving it a facelift then will try make it available for people on here.

UB/SpeedBen - Thanks :)

Bhagwan - I've just tested my data in 4 ways including your described method, here are the results:

Flat Stake 1% of $100 bankroll ($1) for all bets:
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $1,050
Profit of $513
POT 48.83%
ROI 513%

$1 Unit size adjusting for assessed Prices through ratings (Note I adjusted Bhagwan's equation slightly and have explained at the bottom)
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $1,455
Profit of $723
POT 49.69%
ROI 723%

1% of Max Bankroll since inception adjusted for each bet
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $41,427
Profit of $14,784
POT 35.69%
ROI 14,784%

1% of Max Bankroll since inception adjusted for each bet AND also adjusted based on assessed prices via ratings (As per below)
426 Winners from 1,050 Bets (40.57% SR)
Turnover of $338,971
Profit of $109,151
POT 32.20%
ROI 109,151%

So essentially based on the above by implementing some staking plans (1% of max bankroll insread of set units AND adjusted for assessed prices) you dramatically increase your profits at the sacrifice of additional turnover and therefore reducing POT. Interested on the thoughts/comments from others, I highly doubt in practice I can turn my $200 bankroll into $110,000 over the space of 7 months but thats what my testing is saying. We'll see how it goes in practice.

Adjusted Bhagwan's method:

As my plays are already required to be 75% of the 2nd rated horse, that would mean every bet would have a minimum unit size of 1.3333 every bet. Therefore I used the following equation to adjust for it so that any play which is precisely 75% of 2nd rater will be 1 unit:

((2nd Rated Price / 1st Rated Price) / 1.333333)

Example: Top Rater = $3.54, 2nd Rater = $6.72

((6.72 / 3.54) / 1.33333) = 1.4237
Whereas in Bhagwan's method it would've been 1.8983

You then multiply this by either your unit size (set dollar) or max % of bankroll as i've done. Certainly does seem like a logical way of doing it, doesn't seem to improve the POT by a great deal but simply means your turning over more money for more profit.

Also i'll post my plays for today at around noon. :)

[evajb001]

Today's plays, still at $2

Flemington - Race 5

No.
4 New Beginning

Flemington - Race 6

No.
2 Zydeco

Flemington - Race 9

No.
2 Lord Of Brazil

Hawkesbury - Race 5

No.
1 Boston Tea

Hawkesbury - Race 6

No.
5 Quidnunc

Hawkesbury - Race 7

No.
11 Merlin Mustang

Northam - Race 7

No.
1 Kincora

[Lord Greystoke]

Evajb and his perpetual profits machine rolleth on.



Flemington - Race 9

No.
2 Lord Of Brazil



LG

[SpeedyBen]

Here's a scary thought. With a 40% strike rate you could safely bet a much higher percentage of your bank if you wished. I would wager that your worst losing run since you started is not worse than 15. Am I correct in this assumption?
Betting at best tote/ SP you were up 8.1 points today.
Triffic.

[evajb001]

Hi SpeedyBen,

Your correct, in all of my testing (1 April 2012 til today) max consecutive losses has been 8. However thats by listing the races by venue in my dataset, not by race times. So it could possibly be higher then that if you get what i mean. But your right with only 1% of my max bankroll being the unit size, it would take 100 consecutive losses for bank to be gone, or a very bad string of losses with few wins. I could probably go to 2% but i'll keep it as is for now and see how I go. If I manage to get my bankroll up to $3-400 reasonably quickly i'll likely go to 2%.

So in the 2 active days so far of betting the system live we've had:

33.33% SR
99.17% POT
11.90% ROI
Bankroll = $223.80
New Unit Size = $2.23 (i'll always round down to be prudent)

Had a very good day today, so could probably expect the next couple to be mediocre possibly. Although the start of november was poor in my testing so this could just be the system getting itself back to profit (as every month so far in testing has been profitable).

[SpeedyBen]

I know this sounds a bit odd but if you have a large number of results it doesn't really matter what order you store them in the longest run of outs will be pretty much the same. Excuse me if I'm telling you what you already know.
Whether we are talking horse races or side effects in a drug trial the run of outs is entirely dependent on the hit rate percentage. Your hit rate is not much inferior to a coin toss so if you can sustain it you will never have a serious run of outs.
Congratulations.

[UselessBettor]

I know this sounds a bit odd but if you have a large number of results it doesn't really matter what order you store them in the longest run of outs will be pretty much the same. Excuse me if I'm telling you what you already know.
Whether we are talking horse races or side effects in a drug trial the run of outs is entirely dependent on the hit rate percentage. Your hit rate is not much inferior to a coin toss so if you can sustain it you will never have a serious run of outs.
Congratulations.
Speedyben,

What determines the number of results to be confident in your strike rate ? Is 100 bets enough, 1000 bets, 10000 bets ?

Personally I have found at least 6000 races are needed to check ratings before the strike rate starts to stabailise.

I am interested in other peoples findings though.

[Lord Greystoke]

Speedyben,

What determines the number of results to be confident in your strike rate ? Is 100 bets enough, 1000 bets, 10000 bets ?

Personally I have found at least 6000 races are needed to check ratings before the strike rate starts to stabailise.

I am interested in other peoples findings though.

In that case...

We need that world famous system tester of yours back online !

LG

[evajb001]

Also UB is it based on how many races you've done your rating on or how many races you've actually used your ratings on for a system type bet.

For example i've done ratings on almost 2,300 races now but the system only bets on roughly half of these.

I agree my sample size isn't the largest or the best. But its shown a profit in every month since the start. If it was a bung system I would've thought it may have been a bit lumpy or lost a month or two by now.

[SpeedyBen]

With horse racing I like to see a full year's results covering all seasons. Even then, you have to be constantly on the alert for changes beyond your control which may affect your selection method.
What I'd like to say is that since you are starting with a small amount enjoy it and let the profits accumulate. If you want to you can take a dividend when you double your bank and adjust the bank and bet accordingly. It is a great feeling when you are playing with other people's money.
I hope that is some help.

[UselessBettor]

For example i've done ratings on almost 2,300 races now but the system only bets on roughly half of these.

I agree my sample size isn't the largest or the best. But its shown a profit in every month since the start. If it was a bung system I would've thought it may have been a bit lumpy or lost a month or two by now.
You have to start somewhere. And its going really well already. I say keep it going but just keep an eye on it as last month seemed to be the worst month you had yet.

[evajb001]

All of the following placed at the new unit size of $2.23

Kempsey - Race 6

No.
1 Bengal Angel

Kempsey - Race 8

No.
2 Annarism

Sale - Race 6

No.
3 Family Crest

[evajb001]

last play of the day:

Cranbourne - Race 6

No.
3 Severn Road

[evajb001]

Here are some of the early plays for today, fill continue to post throughout the day just in case conditions change anywhere.

Flemington - Race 2

No.
3 Galah

Flemington - Race 3

No.
4 Hoylonny

[evajb001]

Flemington - Race 5

No.
10 Sea Siren

Flemington - Race 9

No.
8 Tokugawa

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
5 Binalong Road

Eagle Farm - Race 6

No.
3 Run Royal Run

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
13 Flying Jet

Warwick Farm - Race 4

No.
7 Nat King Cu

Morphettville Pk - Race 3

No.
3 Warator

Morphettville Pk - Race 6

No.
8 Sparkling Bella

Morphettville Pk - Race 7

No.
1 Riziz

Morphettville Pk - Race 8

No.
5 Selessi

will post any ascot plays in a couple hours

[evajb001]

Ascot - Race 3

No.
2 Smart Twister

Ascot - Race 4

No.
6 Solsay

Ascot - Race 7

No.
10 Luke's Luck

Ascot - Race 8

No.
4 Peggie's Dream

[UselessBettor]

good luck with them today.

[SpeedyBen]

Smart Twister helped to rescue a dirty day, Eva.
Out of curiousity, how would you have got on if you only backed the double figure selections?

[evajb001]

Overall a pretty luck finish to the day thanks to Ascot to help me break even. It was looking pretty hairy early on in the day but came home strong. I'm only hitting about a 20% strike rate at the moment so my testing shows it should be up around 35-40% so there is definitely improvement there. My max bankroll is $223.80 and i finished today at $223.53 so no increase to unit size again, still at $2.23

Ill try get tomorrows plays up but will be busy with a work show for clients and wont have signal on my phone.

happy punting.

[evajb001]

Putting my bets on for tomorrow now guys, still $2.23 unit size:

Sunshine Coast - Race 3

No.
7 Wind Wand

Sunshine Coast - Race 7

No.
3 Visona Rose

Armidale - Race 6

No.
6 I'm In The Money

Armidale - Race 7

No.
1 Devilgate Road

Ararat - Race 5

No.
2 King Buddy

Ararat - Race 6

No.
1 Texan Warney

Pinjarra - Race 9

No.
7 Not So Sweet

[Bhagwan]

Hi Evaj.
Here is a staking approach you may like to to test.

1/200th UP & DOWN Staking Plan
Make ones base bet unit 1/200th of bank.
Adjusted DAILY, up & down. (Important)
e.g. If bank is reduced from 230.00 to 220.00
Then bet 1/200th of remaining bank of 220.00 for the whole of the next day.

Betting 1/200th, smooths out the ups & downs more, rather than say 1/60th

This approach is considered to be one of the safer approaches to use.

One may feel more comfortable using this approach , especially if ones bank starts to build to sizable proportions and if one feels that a bad run is just around the corner.

It may also help you sleep better at night knowing that the strategy of the staking plan can withstand huge runs of outs & still be standing to keep on going.

[bernie]

Hi Evaj.
Here is a staking approach you may like to to test.Here are a few more of Bhagwan's staking plans you may like to test. I think there are a few I have missed but Bhagwan can fill in the gaps.

10 Point Staking Plan
Bhagwan Staking Plan
Bhagwan Place Staking & Selection
Place Staking & Selection plan
Bhagwan Staking Plan (2)
5% Staking Plan
8 Bet Place Staking Plan (No2)
Money Management Staking Plan
Place Staking Plan
Bhagwan Staking Plan (B)
Staking Plan Challenge
Each Way Staking Plan
Staking Plan using variable percentage
Dynamite Place Staking Plan
Simple Staking Plan
1/20th Staking Plan
Roulette-Red & Black Staking Plan
Duel Progression Staking Plan
Roulette 6 Step Staking Plan
Ladder Staking Plan
Roulette Staking Plan
Ladder Staking Plan (B)
TAB Favourites Plan
Square Root Staking Plan
4 Horse Value Staking Plan
Previous Winner Staking Plan
1-4 Lay Staking Plan
Six Block Lay Staking Plan
10 Block Staking Plan
Black Box Lay Staking Plan
New Staking Plan
Escalator Staking Plan

[evajb001]

Today's plays, still a $2.23 unit size. There were no plays yesterday and all losses sunday:

Townsville - Race 6

No.
6 Panecillo

Kilmore - Race 5

No.
7 Jarrah Twist

[garyf]

And another way to the 100,s already mentioned.


What is a better money management solution than level or progressive staking?

Well the best approach is one that balances two competing beasts - risk and reward. Professional punting is about maximising your returns, but it is just as important to protect your bankroll.

Following literally years of analysis and number-crunching have found the best risk/reward balance is to bet to collect 5% of your bank.

So if a horse is at odds of $2.00, you outlay 2.5% of your bank which will return 5% (2 x 2.5) if the horse wins.

If a horse is at odds of $5.00, you outlay 1% of your bank to return 5%.

If the horse is at $10 you only outlay .5% of your bank to return 5%.

The simple calculation to determine your stake is 5 divided by the odds.

This method works because you're outlaying more on horses likely to win and less on those with a lower chance of winning. You're taking advantage of the fact that on a long-term basis the betting market is a very good guide - there is a perfect correlation between market rank and winning percentage. Favourites win more races than 2nd favourites, who win more than 3rd favourites and so on. And horses starting at $2.50 win more races than those at $3.00 and on it goes. The greater the price, the lower the winning strike-rate.

we maximise our returns by betting to collect 5% of our bank, but instead of using the market odds we use our own rated prices. This means the greater the overlay the greater our collect and it has some strong similarities to a well known method called the Kelly Criterion.

Horses that rate at $2.00 will win very close to 50% of races.

Horses that rate at $5.00 will win very close to 20% of races.

But the profitable edge is in backing these horses at a price equal to or better than their true chance of winning. For example getting $2.50 about a horse you have rated at $2.00 has a positive expectation.

The staking plan involves outlaying no more than 2.5% of our bank on any one race and typically we're in the 1.5% to 2% range. A punter's bank might be $1,000 or it might be $100,000 but the percentage of their bank outlayed on any one race is the same and this maintains a good balance between achieving profits and protecting your capital.

Now if you wanted to get aggressive and bet to return say 10% of your bank per winner, in the short-term you may do well. But in the long-term you'll almost certainly blow up your bank due to one of the most dangerous yet under-estimated enemies of a punter and that is variance.

Proportionate betting with the aim of collecting 5% can reduce the drawdown on your bankroll and is a great way of maximising returns.

You can agree or disagree to each there own.

Cheers
Garyf.

[The Ocho]

I just read that on an email garyf. Not bad for a staking plan.

[garyf]

I just read that on an email garyf. Not bad for a staking plan.That's why i posted it, had to delete the companys,
Name for legal reasons.

I admit i would never have thought of it,
If you have a good set of prices like Eva's it should help.

Posted it here rather than my thread Interesting Read,
As staking plans were being mentioned on this thread.

Cheers
Gary.

[evajb001]

Today gents:

Doomben - Race 6

No.
3 By Choice

Hawkesbury - Race 7

No.
3 Atsuta

Bendigo - Race 6

No.
2 Kimurasun

Ascot - Race 3

No.
9 Terkel

Ascot - Race 4

No.
7 Business Secret

Ascot - Race 7

No.
3 Tiffany Yellow

[evajb001]

Gosford - Race 8

No.
8 Lady Gazerra

[evajb001]

Bunbury - Race 8

No.
2 Riverbend Cowboy

[The Ocho]

Well done evajb001. Like a Riverbend cowboy.

What's the running total like?

[evajb001]

Hi ocho,

it's been up and down the last few today's but with the protest being upheld at bunbury tonight it means its set a new max slightly above the previous so new unit size. new account size is $224.69 so unit size is now $2.24 rather then $2.23. In 8 days to be up with a strike rate of only 23.40% makes me semi-happy. Testing showed that in the long term the strike rate was about 36% so hopefully there are a few more winners around the corner soon.

On a side note i'm hitting 65.38% on NBA at the moment and up about 8.26 units.

[The Ocho]

That's great evajb001. To be below your expected S/R and still producing a profit has got to be a beautiful thing. Well done.

[AngryPixie]

That's great evajb001. To be below your expected S/R and still producing a profit has got to be a beautiful thing. Well done.

Expected or observed? The 36% is a historic observed strike rate. The expected strike rate would be the sum of each starting price expressed as a percentage. Being below your expected strike rate could be bad in the longer term. Being below your historic observed strike rate is of much less significance as strike rate is a function of the price accepted.

If your strike rate is down your selections starting at longer odds may be an answer amongst a few.

[evajb001]

All at new unit size of $2.24

Geraldton - Race 3

No.
1 Kneedeep

Geraldton - Race 4

No.
6 Bernina Heights

Geraldton - Race 5

No.
1 Bali Cruiser

Moonee Valley - Race 2

No.
5 Orbicat

Moonee Valley - Race 4

No.
8 Halle Rocks

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
6 Arctic Flight

Canterbury - Race 4

No.
5 Animoso

Canterbury - Race 6

No.
11 Inventive

Canterbury - Race 7

No.
4 Ingham Magic

[evajb001]

Plays for today, new unit size after some success last night ($2.30)

Sandown-Hillside - Race 2

No.
1 Angelic Light

Sandown-Hillside - Race 3

No.
6 Verdant

Sandown-Hillside - Race 4

No.
4 Star Of Giselle

Sandown-Hillside - Race 5

No.
2 Raspberries

Sandown-Hillside - Race 7

No.
2 Lunar Rise

[evajb001]

Morphettville Pk - Race 3

No.
7 Off The Map

Morphettville Pk - Race 4

No.
4 Waratone

Morphettville Pk - Race 7

No.
6 Almighty Bullet

Morphettville Pk - Race 8

No.
3 Thorny Devil

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
2 Scouting Wide

Rosehill - Race 7

No.
4 Censor

Eagle Farm - Race 7

No.
6 Bribie

[UselessBettor]

good luck today.

[evajb001]

Ascot - Race 3

No.
4 Checkpoint

Ascot - Race 6

No.
9 Iseethingsyoudon't

Ascot - Race 8

No.
3 Fanicio

[evajb001]

Strathalbyn - Race 6

No.
1 Ace Or Joka

[evajb001]

Mt Barker - Race 6

No.
1 Cargo Cruiser

[evajb001]

Wangaratta - Race 5

No.
8 Artie Royale

[evajb001]

Only the one play today, how many are still reading this thread by the way? If people have lost interest i'll stop bumping with my bets and simply post updates on the stats once a week or something if people are interested.

Echuca - Race 7

No.
9 Island Bar

[TWOBETS]

....how many are still reading this thread by the way? If people have lost interest i'll stop bumping with my bets....

I is evajb001, very interesting.

[The Ocho]

I'm just keeping an eye on it but a stats update would be good.

[AngryPixie]

Keep going. The stat's are useless without seeing what they refer to.

[SpeedyBen]

You seem to have had more than your fair share of seconds lately. I hope the tide will turn for you soon.

[TheSchmile]

I'm still monitoring evajb001.

I'd be interested in seeing a state by state breakdown of your results. I have found in my experience that NSW and VIC are generally the most reliable from a ratings perspective.

[evajb001]

Plays for today gents, still $2.30 unit size, i feel some winners coming haha. Also i'll update my database tonight (if I get a chance) and provide you with a bunch of stats for those interested - based on my live betting and also historical stats including testing such as venue, day, saddlecloth, race no. etc.

Doomben - Race 7

No.
12 Seeking More

Doomben - Race 5

No.
6 Longshoreman

Gosford - Race 3

No.
5 Oceans

Gosford - Race 5

No.
8 Sweet Talkin Woman

Gosford - Race 6

No.
8 Gibraltar's Gem

Gosford - Race 7

No.
3 Ricci Royal

Sale - Race 5

No.
5 Phantom Brew

Sale - Race 6

No.
4 Now And Zen

[evajb001]

Hi Guys,

Sorry I haven't got any stats posted yet, been quite busy with work and personal stuff. As soon as I get a chance i'll get everything in here, todays plays:

Rockhampton - Race 4

No.
7 Ten Seconds

Rockhampton - Race 5

No.
2 Cyclone Billy

Wyong - Race 6

No.
3 Night Moves

Warrnambool - Race 6

No.
2 Run Diego

Port Lincoln - Race 1

No.
4 Going Strong

Port Lincoln - Race 6

No.
1 Son Of A Gun

Northam - Race 7

No.
3 Clever I Am

[evajb001]

Plays for today, will post more later for other races:

Kyneton - Race 8

No.
1 Kid Dynamite

Orange - Race 4

No.
1 Private Taber

[evajb001]

Another placing at Orange, i've been getting a LOT of 2nd and 3rd's lately which makes me think even though my SR is down compared to testing, is that I need to stick at it because i'm around the mark and it may just be an average month. Here are the last few plays for tonight:

Narrogin - Race 5

No.
4 Milnathort

Narrogin - Race 6

No.
4 Enshrined

Cranbourne - Race 7

No.
7 Montana Man

Sunshine Coast - Race 4

No.
1 Endless Tower

[evajb001]

Here's todays plays gents. It's been a poor run lately, maybe i'm hoping or wishing but I just got a feeling there could be some winnings today:

Eagle Farm - Race 2

No.
2 Theft

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
1 Marked

Eagle Farm - Race 5

No.
6 The White Hope

Rosehill - Race 3

No.
3 Cantonese

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
6 Zauberflote

Rosehill - Race 7

No.
5 Leviosa

Moonee Valley - Race 2

No.
2 You Think So

Moonee Valley - Race 5

No.
5 Shihabi

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
13 Mouro

Moonee Valley - Race 7

No.
4 Hollywood

Morphettville Pk - Race 4

No.
6 Fidesdi

Morphettville Pk - Race 6

No.
6 Esprit De Bullet

Morphettville Pk - Race 8

No.
8 Zai Jian

[evajb001]

Ascot:

Ascot - Race 1

No.
2 Excelorada

Ascot - Race 3

No.
8 He's Starkers

Ascot - Race 4

No.
5 Moonlight Bay

Ascot - Race 5

No.
5 Kerrific

Ascot - Race 6

No.
12 Peggie's Dream

Ascot - Race 7

No.
1 Luke's Luck

Ascot - Race 8

No.
5 Barakey

Ascot - Race 9

No.
1 Luckygray

Ascot - Race 10

No.
2 Geiger Rio

[UselessBettor]

Strike rate was up but odds were very unfortunately very poor.

[demodocus]

Strike rate was up but odds were very unfortunately very poor.This illustrates something that I find philosophically interesting. We "raters" use methods which are designed to find the winner of a race and which are not designed around 'price'. We leave it up to the ratings user whether or not they accept the price that is on offer.

However, many users want the strike rate (that a good rater generates) combined with odds that are an expression of the extreme unlikeliness of the happening coming to pass.

For the past few Saturdays I have circulated my subscribers (at no extra cost) with a "laylist" which sets out +/- 75 of the unlikeliest chances for Sat. Metro races. Yesterday we were pottering along as usual with <2% SR when my lay in Ascot R3 "The Regulator" crossed the line first @ $36+. That horse hasn't been closer to the front than 4 len. for a year and yet on a big race day it performed :-) This happenstance generated some acrimonious correspondence but illustrates the dichotomy that faces both the 'rater' and the 'punter'.

Should the punter be satisfied with an evens Fav. and doubling his money when it wins or should he join the search for the (unreachable in my opinion) goal of a 50% SR with $36 dividends ?? Which takes me back to my first paragraph.

All part of life's rich tapestry :-)

[Lord Greystoke]

Food for thought indeed, demodocus!

I also find that immensely interesting from a human perspective - shines some light on what is achievable, what isn't.. also the illusions most us carry when it comes to assessing a horses chances given existing information v the returns we expect.

And also...
Is this a sport on which we can have a bit of a flutter or play out an obsession of a kind or something we prefer to focus on every day/week = 99% of punters?

OR

Can - should it be treated as a business in which to yield a return on an investment.. Just as owners / jockeys / trainers / bookies / race tracks-clubs / advertisers and the media do, and run as such as best we can = 1% of us??

Perhaps it is also a reflection of the nature of the gambler and also us as human beings.. In reality I suspect that most of us are looking for a free ride or windfall, easy way out, short cut to riches and early retirement, winning the jackpot etc but expect to give very little in return for the prize.


Come down to basic human nature. I suppose.. what would we do without it, eh (and can we do to change it, if anything?)


Cheers LG

[evajb001]

Hi Guys, plays for today and below i'll reply to your posts:

Sunshine Coast - Race 6

No.
9 Mishani Warrior

Goulburn - Race 1

No.
1 All Conquering

Goulburn - Race 2

No.
1 Tiger Territory

Goulburn - Race 6

No.
3 Grecian Melody

Goulburn - Race 7

No.
17 Browden

Ballarat - Race 4

No.
10 Gypsy's Best

Ballarat - Race 5

No.
3 Fantastic Porscha

Ballarat - Race 7

No.
3 Hot Lover

Ballarat - Race 8

No.
4 Sertorius

Ballarat - Race 9

No.
10 Rare Bear

Clare - Race 6

No.
5 Tasteofenergy


Ok in relation to the discussion, my ratings/plays aren't built on chasing odds or strike rate, it's about finding the horse with all the right elements/form to win the race whether thats a $10 horse or a $2 horse. Maybe I should look more into only betting overlay's etc however my testing shows my current method works and overall my average odds make up for the strike rate.

For instance in the last week or so when I haven't been having the best time with my ratings in terms of being profitable, there's been a very high rate of placings. Also yesterday I unfortunately was playing with the track conditions at MV which lead me to bet Muoro instead of Lord of Brazil. So I went from potentially winning @ $6 odds to losing my stake which was quite annoying and something i've addressed. Also note while the win strike rate was back at a decent level (7 winners from 22 bets), there were also 8 placings in addition to that, a lot of them coming 2nd. This makes me feel like i'm certainly around the mark and that my ratings haven't suddenly got worse, but just that they are going through a rough patch which ill be riding out. Essentially if i'm on LOB yesterday and 1 or 2 more of those placings get up, i've had a really profitable day.

I by no means have a complete polished product which is why i'm live betting it with small amounts to adjust and tweak moving forward so I can eventually through more money at it. But I do feel i'm pretty close to where I need to be.

demodocus, i've got some queries on your service, am I able to email you?

[demodocus]

demodocus, i've got some queries on your service, am I able to email you?
You can find me here :-)

http://home.iprimus.com.au/atreus/

Kind regards,

Roger Biggs

[UselessBettor]

This illustrates something that I find philosophically interesting. We "raters" use methods which are designed to find the winner of a race and which are not designed around 'price'. We leave it up to the ratings user whether or not they accept the price that is on offer.

However, many users want the strike rate (that a good rater generates) combined with odds that are an expression of the extreme unlikeliness of the happening coming to pass.

Roger,

I don't want to side track this thread. My comment was in regards to evajb001's comments on being due for a few winners strike rate wise.

Ratings are only as good as the person using them and how they apply them to the odds available.

[mattio]

I only rate Saturday metro and yesterday was a great day, 35% top raters winning for a 30% POT at level stakes on all 41 races rated. Best was Classics $9.20 and Dolly Dolly $9.10 (when Marked was late scratching). Some very good 99 point raters as well including Akhedasset $7.10.

[evajb001]

Without going into too much detail on the specifics of equations etc, how do you go about doing your ratings mattio? Mine are highly correlated to form, class and fitness which largely takes into account the horses last 3 starts. I'm interested as to how others approach it, I think my biggest drawback is I don't have a database to work from.

Todays Plays:

Hamilton - Race 6

No.
5 Gold Bridian

Scone - Race 5

No.
3 Domuar Miss

[TheSchmile]

Hi evajb001,

I notice today's selections are between BM60-BM68. I think I recall previously you were restricting your bets to BM70+. Was this just for overlays or have you changed your minimum?

[evajb001]

Hi Schmile,

I've always worked on anything above 62 (not including 62).

Here are today's plays after its been slim pickings the last 2 days:

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 3

No.
2 Clanga's Glory

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 5

No.
4 Aliberani

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 6

No.
1 Khalifa

Newcastle - Race 3

No.
6 Note To Bee

Newcastle - Race 4

No.
2 Boston Tea
Newcastle - Race 5

No.
1 Kukri

Newcastle - Race 7

No.
8 Fireball

Gawler - Race 7

No.
2 Eclair Rally

[evajb001]

And Ascot:

Ascot - Race 7

No.
3 Terkel

Ascot - Race 9

No.
7 Not So Sweet

[mattio]

Without going into too much detail on the specifics of equations etc, how do you go about doing your ratings mattio? Mine are highly correlated to form, class and fitness which largely takes into account the horses last 3 starts. I'm interested as to how others approach it, I think my biggest drawback is I don't have a database to work from.

Todays Plays:

Hamilton - Race 6

No.
5 Gold Bridian

Scone - Race 5

No.
3 Domuar MissI don't work from a database either, I only have the records of my past ratings which is how I made changes to the formulas over a period of time. Basically I use multiple ratings methods to form an overall rating for each horse, each method is done differently and the final rating is designed to take the best elements from each method.

Track conditions play a part for me too, I lost Akhedasset as a top rater when I changed the track conditions but overall it doesn't matter because a 99 point overlay winner is just as good as a 100 point winner.

Keep at it mate, you are well ahead of the majority.

[evajb001]

Thanks for the kind words mattio, i'm currently working pretty hard at trying to get a model together for the NBA to automate some bets on that. I've been succesfully betting it so far this season (Roughly +8 units) but enjoy the challenge of trying to find an edge with numbers and statistics. I'm way way behind the ball game compared to some of the guys on a forum I read though - apparently NBA is one of the hardest sports to build a model for as there is so much interest, any angle you think of to approach has already been done in one way or another. But i figured i'd give it a shot.

Once i either fall over or am successful with that, whatever comes first, I think i'll take another look at my horse ratings method and see where improvements can be made. For now i'm going to ride it out, i'm only betting small money anyway and don't want to give up on it just cos i've hit a rough patch.

Anyhow here are today's bets:

Rockhampton - Race 5

No.
1 Speeding Dragon
Naracoorte - Race 6

No.
1 Hasta La Shamer

Albany - Race 6

No.
1 Nigel's Gold

Albany - Race 7

No.
4 Xaarablaze

[TheSchmile]

Hi Schmile,

I've always worked on anything above 62 (not including 62).

Hi Evajb001,

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Have you stopped the overlay approach, or is that another strategy entirely?

[evajb001]

The overlay approach I was using previously i stopped using. Mainly because i wasn't being disciplined enough with it and wasn't keeping track properly of my bets so it was a fruitless exercise in the end.

I think the overlay method is something I definitely need to incorporate into my betting in the future, but its just not something i'm using at the moment. Using overlays to manage bankroll is certainly a step in the right direction IMO. I also like the idea of betting to win 5% of bankroll as Bhwaghan suggested.

Hopefully once I finish up with this NBA stuff I can put my focus back on the horse racing side of things and look at some additional bankroll and betting options. Betting to overlays is a bit difficult for me as I don't have the markets open infront of me due to working. So my initial thoughts is something like betting to win 5% of bankroll based on my calculdated odds (using my ratings).

So I might rate something a $2.50 chance with a bankroll of $200 it would be a $4 bet. However the odds of the horse on the TAB might be $5.50 so essentially i'd be winning more. Of course the reverse holds true, that a $5 fave on my ratings would be a $2 bet but may only be paying $1.50 on TAB. Essentially with this method i'm backing my ratings to help me put the most money on my best rated changes.

Another option that a friend of mine is exploring using my ratings is to adjust the staking size on a number of factors. So he bets every single one of my top raters in qualifying races (fields of 8+ and of good quality) and adjusts the stake based on factors. For instance we went through all my data and collated various statistics to see where my ratings performed best.

So he has his initial stake at $9, his maximum bet is $15 and minimum is $3. He adjusts the $9 stake by using percentages based on the following factors:

Day of week
Venue
Race Number
Saddlecloth Number
Conditions

there are some others but I can't think of them from top of my head right now. So essentially he might be betting $15 bets on a sunday at any VR races etc etc as its shown historically to be more profitable with those factors.

Anyhow just thought i'd outline some ideas i've got floating in my head at the moment. :)

[TheSchmile]

Nice one Evajb001,

From memory the overlays were kicking serious B-U-T-T!!! So might be fruitful to revisit that method. Sometimes you can tinker too much with what is essentially a sound, profitable approach.

A simple approach to overlays, put your minimum price into the Betfair SP tool. Go and play Golf, or the fiddle, or the markets. :)

Have a great day mate.

[evajb001]

TheSchmile,

The overlays one kicked butt on backtesting but had mediocre performance in live betting however i didn't bet it with enough discipline to truely tell if it was working.

If the BetFair SP Tool something that I can download and use? I'm thinking that I could possibly trial betting only on horses that are 80% or greater of my estimated pricing. I don't want to narrow down my bets too much as enjoy having money on something daily.

Anyhow here are todays/tonights plays:

Coffs Harbour - Race 9

No.
1 Spiritist

Moonee Valley - Race 7

No.
3 Alrouz

Moonee Valley - Race 8

No.
3 Vibrant Rouge

Canterbury - Race 4

No.
3 Inventive

Canterbury - Race 6

No.
5 Lady Gazerra

[UselessBettor]

off to a good start today.

[TheSchmile]

TheSchmile,
Is the BetFair SP Tool something that I can download and use? I'm thinking that I could possibly trial betting only on horses that are 80% or greater of my estimated pricing. I don't want to narrow down my bets too much as enjoy having money on something daily.

Hi evajb001,
The Betfair SP tool is part of the Betfair package:

1/ Click on the blue SP button
2/ A box will appear in the top right hand corner of the my bets section of the screen, which is on the right-hand side of the main screen saying 'set SP odds limit'.
3/ Click in the box and then type in your minimum acceptable price and stake.

[TheSchmile]

Sorry evajb001,

If you're not currently using Betfair then my instructions may not make sense (may as well be from IKEA :))

The Blue button is for backing and the pink for laying.

Instructions to get to the race are:

1/ Click on the racing tab near the top far left of the screen
2/ Click on 'Horse racing' -> 'Aus' then the meeting and the race number.

then

3/ Click on the blue SP button next to your selection
4/ A box will appear in the top right hand corner of the 'my bets' section of the screen, which is on the right-hand side of your main screen saying 'set SP odds limit'.
5/ Click in the box and then type in your minimum acceptable price and stake.
6/ Confirm and you're Golden.

[evajb001]

Hey guys,

Sorry TS I thought you meant there was an actual downloadable tool that would allow me to do it that BF provided. I personally can't stand BF's website after using sportsbet for so long, they are worlds apart.

Luckily last night was finally the profitable day I'd been waiting for and I was at the pub to take advantage. Started the night with $100, got absolutely tanked, had some dinner with entre's and came home with $160.

I'll post today's plays shortly, just have a black panadol (can of pepsi max) first to aid in curing this hangover. Best of luck to all today :)

[evajb001]

Caulfield - Race 5

No.
4 Bia Diamond

Warwick Farm - Race 5

No.
6 Forfeiture

Eagle Farm - Race 6

No.
3 Jet Style

Morphettville - Race 7

No.
12 Aregee McLaren

[evajb001]

Ascot - Race 3

No.
4 Watermans Bay

Ascot - Race 4

No.
10 Galaxy Prince

Ascot - Race 5

No.
11 Elusive Image

[mattio]

How did your ratings and bets go today mate?

[TheSchmile]

Hey guys,

Sorry TS I thought you meant there was an actual downloadable tool that would allow me to do it that BF provided. I personally can't stand BF's website after using sportsbet for so long, they are worlds apart.

No worries evajb001,

Whatever floats your boat. :)

Best of luck!!

[evajb001]

Hey mattio,

Was break even until ascot. 2 wins and 2 seconds for the day i think.

Heres today:

Kembla Grange - Race 6

No.
2 Inside Job

Kembla Grange - Race 7

No.
1 Enjoyment

Wodonga - Race 5

No.
1 Simmo

Wodonga - Race 6

No.
7 Sumakaray

Wodonga - Race 7

No.
7 Murdoch's Joy

[evajb001]

Geraldton - Race 3

No.
7 Initial Concept

Geraldton - Race 5

No.
4 Crown West

Geraldton - Race 7

No.
2 Kneedeep

[evajb001]

Townsville - Race 5

No.
3 Touch Of Elegance

[evajb001]

Doomben - Race 3

No.
2 Bribie

Doomben - Race 5

No.
2 Lightfeet Lady

Doomben - Race 7

No.
8 Master Avatar

Warwick Farm - Race 3

No.
6 Braggart

Warwick Farm - Race 5

No.
2 Sheniyan

Sandown-Hillside - Race 7

No.
8 Henwood

Balaklava - Race 7

No.
7 Mossgiel Village

Bunbury - Race 7

No.
4 Phenomenal Anemone

Bunbury - Race 8

No.
1 Louisiana Lady


Note:

I'm also trialing laying all horses outside of my top 5 in qualifying races between odds of $4-$20 with a fixed liability of $20 using fake bankroll of $1000. Started it yesterday with only the 1 qualifying race and was up $2.44, will continue keeping this thread updated with how it goes.

[Shaun]

Hi.

As a follow on from that other thread you won't find many if any sites that provide enough form for data testing unless you pay for the back dated form.

This is the reason i just live test my ideas as all the form i need is free on the day before or the day of the races.

[evajb001]

Hi Shaun,

Think i'll just have to do the same in relation to including Trainer/Jockey performance into my ratings. It's just too important to continue leaving it out IMO unless someone can tell me otherwise.

The following macro is what I used to enable me to get the table I was after:

Sub Macro1()
'
' Macro1 Macro
'
'
With ActiveSheet.QueryTables.Add(Connection:= _
"URL;http://www.racingandsports.com.au/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=3&meeting=27664" _
, Destination:=Range("$A$1"))
.Name = "meeting.asp?raceno=3&meeting=27664"
.FieldNames = True
.RowNumbers = False
.FillAdjacentFormulas = False
.PreserveFormatting = True
.RefreshOnFileOpen = False
.BackgroundQuery = True
.RefreshStyle = xlOverwriteCells
.SavePassword = False
.SaveData = True
.AdjustColumnWidth = True
.RefreshPeriod = 0
.WebSelectionType = xlSpecifiedTables
.WebFormatting = xlWebFormattingAll
.WebTables = 36
.WebPreFormattedTextToColumns = True
.WebConsecutiveDelimitersAsOne = True
.WebSingleBlockTextImport = False
.WebDisableDateRecognition = False
.WebDisableRedirections = False
.Refresh BackgroundQuery:=False
End With
ActiveWindow.SmallScroll Down:=54
End Sub

EDIT: Would obviously have to adapt that code a bit to automate it more with the rest of my ratings but this was just to illsutrate the table I was after

[UselessBettor]

Nice work today with 3 winners.

[evajb001]

Warrnambool - Race 5

No.
6 Chestnut Valley

Warrnambool - Race 6

No.
3 Lord Wimble

Gosford - Race 7

No.
8 Oristana

Pinjarra - Race 7

No.
3 Flirt With Time

[evajb001]

Port Lincoln - Race 5

No.
4 Nabali

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
8 Vizhaka

Moonee Valley - Race 8

No.
11 Diamond Diggler

Mt Barker - Race 8

No.
1 Can't Hartley Wait

[evajb001]

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
6 Secluded

Rosehill - Race 5

No.
1 Cantonese

Rosehill - Race 6

No.
10 Classics

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
8 Someday

Morphettville - Race 1

No.
3 Cross Constance

Morphettville - Race 3

No.
2 Lightning Drew

Morphettville - Race 5

No.
2 Mornin' Sam

Morphettville - Race 7

No.
5 Hidden Value

[mattio]

Apart from Hidden Value they are all my top rated too mate, good luck!

[evajb001]

same to you mattio, its been a rough trott lately.

[UselessBettor]

Seems to be a case of a slow death recently. There hasn't been a big winner for a few weeks.

Have you been testing the overlay method as this would probably be doing better then just the top selction?

Im hoping a big winner comes in today and I did notice earlier that your big winners are usually on a Saturday.

[evajb001]

Ascot - Race 4

No.
9 Ready Raider

Ascot - Race 8

No.
2 Luckygray

Ascot - Race 9

No.
3 Checkpoint

[evajb001]

UB, it has been a slow death which is why i'm gonna stop betting it for the minute until I forward test some other things. One of them being the overlay's betting.

Bit unfortunate this hasn't played out given the backtesting was doing great and its seem to have gone pear shaped as soon as the cup carnival finished. Could this be because the horses with decent form just aren't pushing for the win as much at the moment as the quality of races are below par?

Could be something I look at starting up again April next year to see if it goes back into profit as thats when the backtesting started and thats when it was going gangbusters.

[UselessBettor]

UB, it has been a slow death which is why i'm gonna stop betting it for the minute until I forward test some other things. One of them being the overlay's betting.

Bit unfortunate this hasn't played out given the backtesting was doing great and its seem to have gone pear shaped as soon as the cup carnival finished. Could this be because the horses with decent form just aren't pushing for the win as much at the moment as the quality of races are below par?

Could be something I look at starting up again April next year to see if it goes back into profit as thats when the backtesting started and thats when it was going gangbusters.
Ifs probably the forum curse. Happens to a lot of tests on here. Its happened to me numerous times.

[evajb001]

Wouldn't you believe it UB, today when i've stopped betting it, there is an $11.60 winner at Terang race 6....