Un-Flaming-Believable

[Barny]

I have followed a system for quite a while now based on a decent Win% S/R, going up in class, Metro, no 2 y/o ..... Pretty Simple

VIC for 1000m to 1199m shows a POT of 72% while NSW for 1000m to 1199m shows a LOT of 46% - HOW CAN THAT BE ????????????????

[UselessBettor]

I have followed a system for quite a while now based on a decent Win% S/R, going up in class, Metro, no 2 y/o ..... Pretty Simple

VIC for 1000m to 1199m shows a POT of 72% while NSW for 1000m to 1199m shows a LOT of 46% - HOW CAN THAT BE ????????????????
A bit mjore information might help us work it out.

How many selections at each state ? How many winners at each state ?

What are the average odds for each ?

[Barny]

I dont have the same info as you do UB, but here goes.

VIC 86 seln's for 16 wins
NSW 63 seln's for 7 wins

I use > $4.00

The Max Div for Vic is high at $37.40 but the profit is $62.50 so it still shows a POT without that win in the calculations.

Interestingly, the PLACE LOT is identical for both states at 5% LOT

[norisk]

I spend a fair chunk of my time testing systems & I find what you have described to be fairly common Barny - what can work in one state stinks it up in another, no rhyme or reason.

[UselessBettor]

I dont have the same info as you do UB, but here goes.

VIC 86 seln's for 16 wins
NSW 63 seln's for 7 wins

I use > $4.00

The Max Div for Vic is high at $37.40 but the profit is $62.50 so it still shows a POT without that win in the calculations.

Interestingly, the PLACE LOT is identical for both states at 5% LOT
Barney at least thats a good start to lookm at the numbers.

So in VIC you had a profit of 72% so a return of $147.90. Average odds of the winners was $9.24

In NSW you had a loss of 46% so a return of $34.00. Average odds of the winner was $4.85

So straight away you can see the average winner price was a lot less in NSW which could contribute to the difference.

Lets assume the average price is somewhere in between around $7. That means you had expected winners for VIC of approx 12. For NSW it had estimated winners of 9.

In both bases the winners is not much more or less then the expected winners and in that case you could assume the deviations are just due to random chance.

A chi test for NSW results are 47% likely to be due to pure luck.
A chi test for VIC results are 27% likely to be due to pure luck.

Anything higher then 5% for a chi test means the results are likely to be random.

So in summary, its likely the lower odds + random chance has caused the major deviation between NSW and VIC.

[Barny]

..... The thought behind the system is a horse with a good S/R going up in class, I use weight variance as a filter to find those going up in class. I can understand this not working in QLD because horses may go up from Vic and NSW and the class thing may be all over the place ..... sigh

S'pose if it was easy then everyone would be making money out of the races eh ?!

[UselessBettor]

.....
S'pose if it was easy then everyone would be making money out of the races eh ?!
lol. So true.