Points value plays

[TheSchmile]

Hi Crew,

Here's a system I've come up with at random, based on allocating points the top two Tatts/DS/NR and Skyform picks.

2 points for a top pick and 1 for 2nd pick.

Rules of elimination:
NSW, VIC, QLD only
1/ 1200-2000m
2/ Minimum standard benchmark 0-68
3/ Must be 100%+ profit, dutching all selections over 3 points using Tatts early prices.
4/ Minimum 2 qualifiers
5/ Minimum points for top selection = 6, again betting all horses above 3 points

Today's selections (in order):
Warwick Farm
5 - 11 9 5
7 - 13 4

The system came up with two interesting and quite long-priced selections in Conch $18 and Our Brightest Star $25 as top raters.

I'll probably stick to Metro races or only races with morning pre-post prices, as I'm hoping to find some value.

Who knows? Let's play.

Have a great day!!

[TheSchmile]

After the win of Catkins earlier, I'll trial these specials.

Horses must be 5+ points clear and $3+ available fixed in morning line.

Warwick Farm
2 - 3 (8+ pts)

6 - 2 (5+ pts)

[TheSchmile]

Woops
6-2 failed the 1200-2000 rule...

Leave that one for another day.

[TheSchmile]

Warwick Farm
5 - 11 9 5 / 9 2nd $4.1/1.6
7 - 13 4 / 4 won $6.90 (13 was heavily backed from $25 into $11 and came 4th)

OUT 5 In $6.90 POT 38%

Dutching the Selections on Betfair with one unit on each race:
Out 2 IN 3.8 POT 90%

Hmmmm the plot thickens.....

Ideas welcome. Fire at will!! :)

[michaelg]

Going great, TheSchmile.

Are you keeping records for Place results.

[Lord Greystoke]

You there Barny?

I see you are lurking in that dressing gown sash belt of yours with complimentary red dot wine box

LMAO!!!

I'm still going here i tell ya!

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Cleared my system right out and I have been under weather of late.

I owes you a beer you old rogue !

LG

[moeee]

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You have been TOUd yet again, Moeee.

You are NOT a Moderator Moeee, so please send in a TOU if you object to a post instead of telling someone their post is inappropriate. Thank you. Moderator

[Lord Greystoke]

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[moeee]

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[Lord Greystoke]

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[moeee]

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[Lord Greystoke]

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[moeee]

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[Barny]

Hi Crew,

Here's a system I've come up with at random, based on allocating points the top two Tatts/DS/NR and Skyform picks.

2 points for a top pick and 1 for 2nd pick.

Rules of elimination:
NSW, VIC, QLD only
1/ 1200-2000m
2/ Minimum standard benchmark 0-68
3/ Must be 100%+ profit, dutching all selections over 3 points using Tatts early prices.
4/ Minimum 2 qualifiers
5/ Minimum points for top selection = 6, again betting all horses above 3 points

Today's selections (in order):
Warwick Farm
5 - 11 9 5
7 - 13 4

The system came up with two interesting and quite long-priced selections in Conch $18 and Our Brightest Star $25 as top raters.

I'll probably stick to Metro races or only races with morning pre-post prices, as I'm hoping to find some value.

Who knows? Let's play.

Have a great day!!I don't get rule No. 3 TheSchmille "Must be 100%+ profit" ?? What's that about please ??

[Lord Greystoke]

Post deleted. Off topic. Moderator.

[moeee]

Post deleted.

Moeee, since returning a few days ago from 14 days suspension you have been TOUd on a number of occasions. You have not changed your posting style and have ignored moderation comments.

You are now suspended for one month.

[Lord Greystoke]

Post deleted. Off topic. Moderator.

[TheSchmile]

Going great, TheSchmile.

Are you keeping records for Place results.

Thanks Michael G,

I thought of dutching the place for the last race at Warwick Farm, as the place prices were $2.90 and $5.75 at the start of the day on Tatts, representing a 95% POT at the time. TASTY. It might pay to look at when there are only two selections?

I'll try and come up with some lay ideas

[TheSchmile]

There's only one qualifying race tomorrow. Easy day for the points plan so there may be no action with the system. Does anyone know of a good second tipster to use in QLD country/provincial other than the radiotab person?

Qualifying race:
Rockhampton race 6

[TheSchmile]

I don't get rule No. 3 TheSchmille "Must be 100%+ profit" ?? What's that about please ??
Hiya Barny,

Sorry mate I missed your post amongst the 'excitement' going on around it......:D

The 100%+ profit bit means you must be able to get 100% profit by dutch betting all selections over 3 points.

So if the early morning prices on tatts for selections are:
$3 and $3.50 - the profit when dutching both is 61% so it's a no bet race.
$4 and $5 - the profit when dutching both is 122% so it's a bettable race.

I use Oddschecker dutching calculator (http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html) to work out what stake to use when dutch staking.

Rule of thumb: Whatever stake your using, the profit must be double your stake for it to be a bettable race. Once you've put in your prices and stake, just below the 'total staked' column at the bottom of the webpage, the 'profit' column needs to be showing double or more for you to proceed with your bet.

I hope this all makes sense Barny, many things seem clear when I write them but may not be as clear to the reader. Keep the questions/input coming.

This 100%+ concept is just something I've thrown out there as an idea to get some value, so any further ideas are much appreciated.

Have a great night!

[UselessBettor]

Does anyone know of a good second tipster to use in QLD country/provincial other than the radiotab person?

Qualifying race:
Rockhampton race 6
The sky racing tipsters are usually different to the radiotab person providing there are at least 2 of them. I think the first one always matches up with radio tab but I coul;d be wrong.

[TheSchmile]

Cheers Uselessbettor,

I'll have a look today!

I took the 100%+ dutching idea from one of your threads so I hope it proves a positive inclusion to the system.

Have a fine day!!

[TheSchmile]

Selections for Rockhampton in order:
6- 1 3 2

We need 100%+ dutching on betfair as there is no fixed odds at the moment.

I'll check in later.

[Barny]

Thanks TheSchmile ! ;)

[TheSchmile]

A pleasure Barny!!

It was an interesting day today.

The 3 selections filled the trifecta spots for a collect of $80 on Tatts.

The total only came to 80% dutching the 3 horses so it was a no race but I might loosen the reigns slightly moving forward, as yesterday there was only one other race between 80-100% also with a positive result.

[TheSchmile]

Morning all,

I'm outa time today, I'll try to post Moonee Valley if poss later on.