Calculate Run Of Outs

[mattio]

I know there is a thread somewhere with the formula to calculate the longest run of outs based on a system's strike rate but I can't seem to find it. If anyone can help with either the thread link or the actual formula that would be great.

Thanks,

Matt.

[The Ocho]

Bhagwan posted this from this thread that I was looking at yesterday...lol.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=23205

Strike Rate(%) -----Max. Outs in a Row
5-------------------- 135
10------------------- 66
15------------------- 43
20------------------- 31
25------------------- 24
30------------------- 19
35------------------- 16
40------------------- 14
45------------------- 12
50------------------- 10
55------------------- 9
60------------------- 8
65------------------- 7
70------------------- 6
75------------------- 5
80------------------- 4
85------------------- 4
90------------------- 3
95------------------- 2

[mattio]

Awesome, thanks Ocho :)

[norisk]

=LN(A1)/-LN((1-A2))

where A1 is number of races & A2 is your strike rate

[AngryPixie]

I know there is a thread somewhere with the formula to calculate the longest run of outs based on a system's strike rate but I can't seem to find it. If anyone can help with either the thread link or the actual formula that would be great.


What are you going to use the figure for once you find it?

[darkydog2002]

So that means that 90 % of my Daily Multi bets should Win.

About right.

Cheers

[Barny]

The frightening thing about runs of outs that I've found is this ..... I've run systems through my database and have managed to get quite a few showing really good POT. As part of my further research I then have a 'butchers' at all the selections in chronological order by 'clicking o the mouse' where it says Next Record. I cannot emphasize enough how disbelieving I am at the number of records I can flick through between winners. I'm there thinking to myself, this is not right, something's wrong here, and then up pops a winner after an eternity !!! It's one thing to look at stats re; POT's and RUNS OF OUTS, but to be actually stuck in the middle of a run of outs of say 31 (S/R of 2o% which ain't half bad) would test your resolve. You'd have to be mighty confident in your system or be running many systems at the same time.

Me, I'd probably bail well before the max run of outs came only to see the next bet was a winner and away we go again, and I woudn't be the only one !! Stats give you half the picture, they don't seem to have such an impact on the psychology of this game as does real life betting, or even manually flicking through the records just to get a feel for what it's like to have "that run of outs".

[darkydog2002]

Hi barny,
The frightening thing for me is that the majority of punters are 1 bet a race people leading to massive run losses of the number you mention and almost always undercapitalized to boot.

Cheers
darky

[Barny]

I cannot for the life of me "get" the notion of having more than 1 bet in each race. I've thought about it, what about backing an on-pacer and one that swoops ?? .... but I keep coming back to the fact that for every bet you're having in excess of one, is a loser !! I'll solve the riddle of the ratings first eh ;)

[Vortech]

Isn't laying basically backing multiple horses per races to win.

[demodocus]

I know there is a thread somewhere with the formula to calculate the longest run of outs based on a system's strike rate but I can't seem to find it. If anyone can help with either the thread link or the actual formula that would be great.

Thanks,

Matt.
Matt, email me atreus@iprimus.com.au and I'll send you a blurb on ROO's.

[mattio]

What are you going to use the figure for once you find it?
I am trying to determine if I can use a loss recovery method for a lay strategy I am looking at but I would need to know what kind of theoretical run of outs I would be looking at to see if it is feasible.

Cheers,

Matt.

[mattio]

Matt, email me atreus@iprimus.com.au and I'll send you a blurb on ROO's.
Email sent mate.

[jose]

Been down that track Mattio, and for what it's worth, thread VERY VERY carefully.
Only takes a couple of horror results to flatten a bank.