Is it harder to win at Carnival time?

[Try Try Again]

From the results from yesterday's Flemington races do you think it is harder to win at Carnival time?

It seems more horses are aimed at specific races and more horses are desperate to qualify for races e.g Melbourne Cup.

As mentioned in another thread the number of horses that have genuine chances seems to be greater than at any other time of the year.

The other observation is that horses that have been up for a while and been in great form seem to "have run their race" e.g Snitzerland, It's a Dundeel, before the race and both were well supported in the market.

Any thoughts?

[Barny]

From the results from yesterday's Flemington races do you think it is harder to win at Carnival time?

It seems more horses are aimed at specific races and more horses are desperate to qualify for races e.g Melbourne Cup.

As mentioned in another thread the number of horses that have genuine chances seems to be greater than at any other time of the year.

The other observation is that horses that have been up for a while and been in great form seem to "have run their race" e.g Snitzerland, It's a Dundeel, before the race and both were well supported in the market.

Any thoughts?
Peter Moody suggested to punters that they leave out It's A Dundeel and Ocean Park as they both have only a 7 day back up, and implied that they may be "past it".

[Try Try Again]

He was proved correct wasn't he!

You could have added Gatewood and Exceptionally - both pushed to qualify for the MC.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Try Try Again,

I did a little experiement this morning using the Sportsman's tipsters to gage how open the races were.

I used a points system, 2 points if tipped 1st, 1 point if tipped 2nd. The horse number is first then a space, then the number of points it got. So using race 2 as an example:

Race 2
2 6, 7 6, 10 1, 6 1 / 1,8,9

Horse 2 and 7 both got a combined 6 points, horse 10 got 1 point and horse 6 got 1 point. The horse numbers after (/ )are horses that were only tipped for third.

All races:

Race 2
2 6, 7 6, 10 1, 6 1 / 1,8,9

Race 3
1 3, 6 1, 10 1, 11 6, 15 2, 16 1 / 5,7,8

Race 4
1 2, 2 2, 6 2, 7 1, 9 2, 14 1, 16 2, 17 3 / 13,15 Open race

Race 5
2 3, 3 1, 4 5, 5 2, 6 4 / 1 Open race

Race 6
1 1, 3 10, 5 1, 11 1, 12 2 / 2,4,7 10 will be fancied

Race 7 - CUP
1 2, 2 3, 4 4, 10 2, 12 2, 19 2 / 15 Open race

Race 8
1 3, 2 4, 3 1, 5 2, 12 3, 13 2 / 9 open race

Race 9
2 3, 6 2, 7 1, 8 2, 14 2, 20 3, 23 2 / 3,9

Race 10
2 4, 9 2, 12 2, 13 3, 16 4 / 6

[norisk]

Is it harder to win at Carnival time?

Don't reckon it necessarily harder to win if you cherry pick races but Derby Day is notoriously difficult so I have a bit of fun with it & along with Cup Day, Doncaster Day etc, don't take them too seriously.

With the rewards on offer, most runners have been trained within an inch of their lives & unlikely but, on reflection, not unexpected results often prove that out.

[norisk]

should add that it's a bit hard for me to take those days seriously with the joke coverage CH7 provides - no mounting yard/30 sec delay of races, but thats probably for another thread..

[SpeedyBen]

I understand that 7 is targeting a non racing audience but I just can't watch all the so called celebrities wanting to be seen. I switch over when a race starts and then straight back to Sky/ TVN when it finishes.
I guess I wouldn't be alone in that amongst racing followers.

[norisk]

As far as I am concerned CH7 can do what they like but when broadcast negotiation come around again, either SKY or TVN must be allowed to conduct business as usual to service those of us that actually carry this friggin industry.

[garyf]

. I switch over when a race starts and then straight back to Sky/ TVN when it finishes.
I guess I wouldn't be alone in that amongst racing followers.Yep exactly me as well.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Generally, if one sees a 9 race venue , one can almost say, that its going to be a bunch of pick-nick races, where anything can win & usually do, at some large prices , so tread carefully.

[Lord Greystoke]

.. and the easiest to pick in the first few I am guessing.

Technology comes and goes,
The punters' predicament remains, however.

LG

[mattio]

Carnival time is notoriously difficult for one out betting but you can find some good value with some well placed Dutch bets.