Melbourne Cup Trifecta Method

[michaelg]

A few years ago someone in the media revealed a M.C. trifecta method which either boxed or stood-out (can't remember) a huge amount of combinations.

Not on this forum but on another the author was harshly criticised, some of the postings were very insulting (what's new?)

I had devised a M.C. trifecta system which if I remember correctly was quite similar. I had results going back to the 70's when Trifectas were first available on the Cup. I wrote to the forum and said I too had devised a somewhat similar trifecta method and provided the results, which were quite impressive. There were were no replies neither positive nor negative. I no longer have the results of the method because of a long-dead computer.

My system was to stand-out every selection under $30 in the Telegraph's market with the Field to run second and third. The average outlay was $4,500. There were two years where the trifecta was snared and each paid $60,000.

In today's Telegraph there is someone calling himself the Maths Whiz. He states that if all horses with odds under 50-1 had been boxed in M.C. trifectas since 1989 (he gives no reason for this date but before then there have been some huge divvies) then the current profit would be $40,885. There would have been at least a couple of years I'm aware of where he would not have got the trifectas due to massive placgetter(s).

Just thought some people here would be interested.

[SpeedyBen]

Here is the original, Michael. It is interesting but it is backfitting at its most egregious. You are quite correct in that there have been a couple of placegetters which started at 71.0 in recent years.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> WAGERING on the Melbourne Cup (http://search.news.com.au/search/0/?us=ndmnews&sid=5017313&as=news&ac=money&r=seealso&q=Melbourne%20Cup)is a better bet than money in the bank, according to mathematicians who say they've cracked a winning formula.

A punter who followed the betting formula of the University of NSW number-crunchers for the past 20 years would be $30,000 richer than if they had had put their money into a savings account at a generous interest rate of 6 per cent.

The secret is a formula the boffins call the Melbourne Cup Trifecta (http://search.news.com.au/search/0/?us=ndmnews&sid=5017313&as=news&ac=money&r=seealso&q=Melbourne%20Cup%20Trifecta)50 or MCT50.

The bet eliminates all the horses that have odds longer than 50-1 and puts a $1 bet on all possible box trifecta combinations for the remaining starters.

It's a pricey method but after an initial outlay of $4896 on the 1989 Cup this "winning formula" would have returned a profit of $40,885 by 2008 - a return of 154 per cent.

"Backing this is equivalent to having put your money in the bank at 11 per cent over that time," head of mathematics and statistics Professor Anthony Dooley said.

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[michaelg]

My first thought was because we don't really have genuine two-milers that it wasn't unusual for outsiders to run well and this was mainly responsible for the huge divvies, and also the huge amount of "uneducated money".

However with the influx of the better overseas horses I wonder if the results will be diluted. I don't think/can't remember if the exotic divvies over the past few years have been too impressive?

[norisk]

unitab divs

tri
2011 $3625
2010 $313
2009 $8684

1st4

2011 $18700
2010 $6800
2009 $75000

usually one roughy in their to spice things up

[Lord Greystoke]

Has anyone got rough idea - averages in MC for..

1. no. horses which are <= 50-1
2. total runners

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

LG
I did look into this at the time I first read the uni report.
From memory the avg no. 51.0 and under was about 16.
The number of starters is rarely less than 22 and never greater than 24.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks Speedy.

My thoughts are that we may need only 14 horses to hit the trifecta.

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

My take on the trifecta....

To come from:
1 2 4 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 20 23 24

LG

[SpeedyBen]

Something to consider ....
Except for Viewed at 40/1 the winner has had a starting price of less than 21.0 for many years.

[WillB]

I must admit I am not one for exotic bets, however when the Melbourne Carnival comes around it all changes!

I have found that the Trifecta's I work out come in between $3K - $4k which makes it not viable and this year is no different.

For me to have any confidence in picking it, I have worked out first leg 8 picks with the field in the remaining legs which is around the $4k.

For interest only, my "skinny" picks would be:
1/2/4/8 first leg with the field (About $2k)

My full picks would be:
1/2/4/8/10/12/15/17 with the field (about $4k)

It would be interesting to see the selections of others.

... Will

PS .. I should also advise that I never bet serious money on the cup.

[Shaun]

Get your trifectas on now if you plan to use the TAB, i was trying to log in and is already running slow.

[Lord Greystoke]

Get your trifectas on now if you plan to use the TAB, i was trying to log in and is already running slow.

lol that site has been running slow since the 'upgraded' it!

LG

[Shaun]

Yeah but is slower than normal slow,lol

They are also planning an upgrade tonight, so it may not come back lol.

[SpeedyBen]

An upgrade the night before the Cup? That makes sense - but not to me.

[The Ocho]

Just use the old site:

http://www.old.tab.com.au/racing/default.aspx?State=1

[Lord Greystoke]

Worth your weight in gold, son.

Old is new, for the very few?

LG

[michaelg]

The Cup has now been won and run.

I was in two minds if to bet my trifecta method.

The outlay was $5,060 and the trifecta would have been snared. The dividend was $51,000 but I decided against betting it.

[bernie]

The Cup has now been won and run.

I was in two minds if to bet my trifecta method.

The outlay was $5,060 and the trifecta would have been snared. The dividend was $51,000 but I decided against betting it.
A wise decision Michaelg. You could just have easily lost as won. Amazing that you can afford to spend $5,060 on one race.

[michaelg]

I've always flexi-bet them for a small amount.

Since day one its showing a very healthy profit. If only I or someone could devise a similar system for betting on other races...

[Toil]

unitab divs

tri
2011 $3625
2010 $313
2009 $8684

1st4

2011 $18700
2010 $6800
2009 $75000

usually one roughy in their to spice things up

F4 this year paid $1,467,099.60 lol

I had 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th in my quinella lol

[Toil]

My take on the trifecta....

To come from:
1 2 4 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 20 23 24

LG

You didn't have 3 and I didn't have 11 :S

[UselessBettor]

F4 this year paid $1,467,099.60 lol

I had 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th in my quinella lol
Thats exactly why it paid so much. Few people had the 2nd and 3rd place getters.

[norisk]

Well, I will be following the "IRE Melb Cup System" next year;)

1st Green Moon(IRE)
2nd Fiorente(IRE)
3rd Jakkalberry(IRE)
4th Kelinni(IRE)
5th Mount Athos(IRE)
6th Glencadam Gold(IRE)
7th Mourayan(IRE)