The Schmile's value-added victors

[TheSchmile]

Hi Team,

I'm slightly bored on this casual Tuesday, so I've come up with an idea.

On selected races, add up the prices from Way2bet, Neurals and Don Scott worksheets then divide by 3. This is the minimum price we will accept.

Example:
Way2bet price: $3.8, Neurals $6, DS $5
Minimum acceptable is: 3.8 + 6 + 5 / 3 = $4.9

I'm only listing horses under $6 for this method. I will list the horse number then the acceptable price.

Let's see how we go today....

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Echuca
Race 7 / 1 $4.8

Mackay
Race 2 / 2 $5.4, 4 $5, 6 $3.8

Cessnock
Race 8 / 1 $4.6, 5 $5, 7 $4.2

---------------------------------------

Here's how I worked it out:

Echuca 7
W2: 1 4, 3 7, 6 11, 8 11, 9 4
NR: 4, 21, 8, 5, 6
DS: 6.5, 9.5, 11, 6.5 16 / 1 $4.8

Mackay 2
W2: 1 9, 2 6.5, 3 4.6, 4 2.25, 5 4.6, 6 3.2
NR: 7, 4.4, 2.3, 9, 17, 6
DS: 301, 5.5, 19, 4, 31, 2.7 / 2 $5.4, 4 $5, 6 $3.8

Cessnock 8
W2: 1 5, 2 4.2, 5 5, 7 2.8, 8 9
NR: 3.7, 4.8, 6, 7.5, 21
DS: 5.5, 26, 4, 2.7, 301 / 1 $4.6, 5 $5, 7 $4.3

(The formatting has gone slightly skewiff. Next to the way2bet figures (W2) I have listed the horse number then the price. Below that on the DS and NR lines only the price is listed)

As usual all comments are VERY MUCH appreciated, preferably of the positive/constructive variety. :)

[TheSchmile]

Just missed in Mackay race 2 with number 6 going down by 0.2L as an overlay, starting at $5.06 on Betfair SP.

[Toil]

Hehe I was getting excited about this :)

Seems like a soundish idea tho.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Toil,

What's that saying about one swallow.....:)

Demanding prices generally $3.5+ one can expect a 15-25% strike rate, so there's a fair chance that there'll be a large run of outs somewhere in the mix. It may also end up making a good lay method. Who knows?

Echuca Race 7 was just run and no. 1 did nothing. So far there have been 3 overlay bets for no return.

The price of the winner in race 2 at Mackay was ridiculous due to DS rating it at $301, as it was first-up. I'll be focussing on races with max 2 first-uppers, preferably not in the first 3 in the market.

Only one race to go at Cessnock. Let's see.

[TheSchmile]

Just applied the idea to Mackay Race 4.

Mackay 4
W2: 1 2.8, 2 2, 4 4, 6 6
NR: 3.1, 4, 10, 26
DS: 5.5, 4.6, 7.5, 401 / 1 $3.8, 2 $3.6

No. 1 won at $4.11 SP (3.90 after commission) with no.2 unplaced at $2.96.

I won't include this in the results, just for interests sake as it was a class 2 race.

[Toil]

Hi TheSchmile,

Since I've got your attention, what s/r can you expect from less then $3.5 and is it possible to make money in this price range?

And what if you only took this price range for your top selection even though it maybe rated a higher price, could that increase your s/r and possibly your profit.

I know nothing about this sorta thing, I only know how to read a runners form basically.

I'll have to assign some prices to my ratings and look for value if thats the only way to do it.

This can be a frustrating game, at Sandown my top rated won 5/6 times but Mooney Valley Cox plate day only 1/6, 4 of the other top raters did place but their place prices were below $2 checked a couple other meetings out and noticed anything starting under like $4 was scoring quite often but not a great deal of bets, maybe just a couple at the meeting.

[TheSchmile]

This can be a frustrating game, at Sandown my top rated won 5/6 times but Mooney Valley Cox plate day only 1/6, 4 of the other top raters did place but their place prices were below $2 checked a couple other meetings out and noticed anything starting under like $4 was scoring quite often but not a great deal of bets, maybe just a couple at the meeting.

Hi Toil,

Whatever the average price for your selections is, say $3.60, divide that number by 100.

So 100 divided by 3.6 = 27 or 27% strike rate.

This is a reasonably rough figure and assumes you were betting into a 100% book.

Without knowing anything about your ratings I would advise picking the results apart with a fine tooth comb. You might find the cream is at the lower end of the prices.

The more exposed the form and higher class of race, generally the more accurate your ratings will be. Study Garyf's posts, along with Iomaca.

Don't be discouraged by 1/6 then 5/6 results, this is natural. Perhaps your ratings will not end up profitable at the Valley long-term? Perhaps this was an abberation and you'll be 5/6 at the Valley next time?

[TheSchmile]

A bit bleak on the win side of things with 0 from 5.

The place fared a little better returning 5.73 from 5 bets, with a strike rate of 3 from 5.

Win: Out 5 In 0 P/L -5 SR 0%
Place: Out 5 In 5.73 P/L + .73 SR 60% POT 14.7%

Interestingly the two winners that beat the overlay selections were both first-uppers. Hmmmm....

------------
For interest sake, the two 'underlays' lost today at $3.90 and $3.30 respectively.

Lays Out 2 In 3.87 P/L +1.87 SR 100% POT 93.5%

All results include Betfair commission.

I'll try my best to at least do NSW and VIC tomorrow.

Hope you found it interesting and have a lovely night.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hope you found it interesting and have a lovely night.

Hope I found it interesting??

Greatness.

LG

[Toil]

Thanks for the reply TheSchmile.

I'll check those posts out.

[TheSchmile]

Hope I found it interesting??

Greatness.

LG
Awwwww Shucks LG, you make-a-me blush! :)

Today's picks are below, I will include the Tatts fixed price in () and early overs will be in bold.

-----------------------

Gosford
3 / 4 $5.7 (6), 5 $5 (3.4)
4 / 1 $5.5 (7), 8 $4.8 (3.5)
6 / 8 $4.6 (2.9)

Sale
5 / 7 $2.8 (no fixed)
6 / 2 $3.9, 3 $5 (no fixed)

----------------------------------------

So currently there are only two 'overs' at Gosford in races 3 and 4.

The DS market ran riot on a few races, for instance Sale race 5, where all other horses except the 7 were $101.

Interesting stuff.......

See the full workout for races below:
Sale
W2: 5-2 8, 3 7, 4 5.5, 5 8, 6 9, 7 3.5, 9 9
NR: 6, 4.6, 7, 8.5, 12, 3.8, 19
DS: 1.2 all others $101 / 7 $2.8

W2: 6-1 4.6, 2 4, 3 5.5, 4 6, 6 6, 8 9
NR: 3.6, 4.4, 5.5, 7, 8.5, 13
DS: 101, 3.3, 4.2, 17, 41, 13 / 2 $3.9, 3 $5

Gosford
W2: 3-2 5, 3 7.5, 4 4.6, 5 3.5, 6 7.5, 7 5, 8 7.5
NR: 17, 6, 6, 5, 10, 12, 4.4
DS: 31, 15, 6.5, 6.5, 6, 15, 12 / 4 $5.7, 5 $5

W2: 4-1 8, 2 6, 3 9, 4 7, 5 4, 8 3.5, 9 7
NR: 3.5, 5.5, 5, 13, 10, 8.5, 26
DS: 5, 12, 9, 301, 9, 2.9, 101 / 1 $5.5, 8 $4.8

W2: 6-1 3.5, 2 4.5, 8 3
NR: 5, 3.8 7
DS: 12, 10, 3.9 / 8 $4.6

[TheSchmile]

Gosford
3 / 4 $5.7 (6), 5 $5 (3.4)
4 / 1 $5.5 (7), 8 $4.8 (3.5)
6 / 8 $4.6 (2.9)

Sale
5 / 7 $2.8 (2.1)
6 / 2 $3.9 (2.1), 3 $5 (4.5)

Still only the two value runners using fixed odds.

[TheSchmile]

Another interesting day for the selections. No winners for the overlays but another profit on the place with one winner from the two selections for a 37.5% POT.

The underlays fought back with 2 winners from 6 for a .48 profit for the win 1 unit loss if laying the selections. The Lays are still in profit.

Overlays
Win: Out 2 In 0 P/L -2 SR 0%
Place: Out 2 In 2.7 P/L + .7 SR 50% POT 37.5%

Underlays
Win: Out 6 In 6.58 P/L + .58 SR 33% POT 9.6%
Lay: Out 6 In 4.94 PL - 1.06 POT -17.6%

[TheSchmile]

Hi y'all,

I'm flat-chat today so may not get a chance to post selections until around 3pm and even then there's no guarantee.

The races I would select to use the method today on are:

Wyong 6,7
Warrnambool 6
Rocky 4,5

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The main criteria is that the there are no horses under $7 scratched in the way2bet market. This ensures it doesn't change the market too much.

*Also ensure there are only two first-uppers after scratchings - This could be an issue with Wyong race 6 and Warrnambool race 6.

[TheSchmile]

Wyong
6-1 5.2 (3.8) 2 $5.6 (4.6), 3 $5.2 (3.2)
7-8 $6 (8)

Warrnambool
6-2 $5.4, 3 $4.2

Rocky
4-3 $5.4, 4 $3.5, 7 $4
5-2 $3.6

Interesting in Wyong race 7, number 8 just scraped in the $6 mark due to rounding down and is an overlay. It would suggest an open race, however no. 9 is the $3 favourite at the moment and it's prices were $4, $18 & $4.8.

There are no other prices available on fixed at the moment.

Have a lovely Thursday afternoon.

[TheSchmile]

Wow I've had a massive day! Just off to sleep now. I'm preparing for my good friend's wedding this weekend so I may go a bit quiet.

A 3 point profit today if you only backed the overs for the place and layed the unders for the win. A short-neck was the difference at Rocky in race 4 between having a profit on win selections and now facing a hefty deficit.

More research required.

Schweet dreams.

[TheSchmile]

Good Afternoon,

Races at Orange today and Cranbourne tonight. The only fixed available at the minute is Orange race 6, where there are two overs selections. The best strategy seems to be to back them for the place, however we must be getting close to a winner with the overs. Surely!!!!.........:D

Orange
4-1 $4.4
6-3 $3.8 ($5), 5 $6 ($7)
7-2 $6, 5 $4

Cranbourne
5-2 $5.6, 3 $4
-----------------------------
Full Workout

Orange
4-1 2.35, 2 4, 4 6, 5 5.5, 6 5.5, 7 8.5
4.4 6 7.5 41 11 13
6.5 9 6.5 11 6 6.5 / 1 $4.4

6-1 4.2, 2 3, 3 5, 4 8, 5 7
11, 5.5 3.8 11 8
11 26 2.8 14 3.4 / 3 $3.8 (5), 5 $6 (7)

7-2 6, 4 8.5, 5 2.5, 8 7.5, 9 8.5, 11 8.5, 12 7.5
10 6 5 12 31 16 8.5
3.2 13 4.8 8 21 21 41 / 2 $6, 5 $4

Cranbourne
5-1 4, 2 2.8, 3 3.5, 5 9, 6 7.5, 8 6
14 5.5 4.4 20 7 8
11 9 4.6 5 8 9 / 2 $5.6, 3 $4

Have a mighty fine day!!

[TheSchmile]

Rosehill 4,7
4-1 6.5, 3 6.5, 4 7.5, 5 9.5, 6 5, 7 8, 8 4.6, 9 11
8 5.5 17 26 14 11 4.6 4.6
5 10 91 16 5.5 26 16 4.8
// 1 $6.4 (7), 3 $7.2 (7), 6 $8 (5), 8 $8.4 (4.6)??, 9 $6.8 (11)

7-1 4.8, 6 8, 7 7, 8 7, 10 11, 11 6.5
8.5 18 15 12 7 41
201 17 81 51 4.2 201 / 10 $7.4 (11)


Moonee Valley 6,7,8
6-2 5, 3 9, 13 4.2, 15 9, 16 8
5.5 31 13 41 51
26 3.7 31 51 201 / 1 $12 (26)

7-1 15 3 8, 4 8.5, 5 4.6, 6 4.6, 9 5
4 11 21 12 6.5 9
201 101 51 6 4 4 / 5 $7.4 (4.6), 6 $5 (4.4), 9 $6 (4.8)

8-1 7.5, 4 7, 10 7, 11 8, 12 9
9 5.5 14 12 17
12 19 12 101 61 / 1 $9.5 (7.5), 4 $10.5 (7.5)

Eagle F 5,6
5-3 8, 5 6.5, 6 2, 19 7.5
9 6 7.5 401
3.2 51 3.6 301 / 3 $6.6 (8), 6 $4.2 (1.9)

6-2 5.5, 5 9, 7 8, 13 8
51 4.8 9.5 41
101 1.45 31 101 / 5 $5 (8.5)

Ascot
8-1 9, 5 2.35, 7 5, 9 5, 10 6.5
6 16 19 7 4.6
6 3.1 12 9 7.5 / 1 $7, 5 $7, 9 $7, 10 $6.2

9-1 3.5, 2 7.5, 4 11, 11 8.5, 14 6
9.5 4.6 21 14 17
4.8 4.8 61 41 41 / 1 $5.8, 2 $5.6

Sorry I didn't have time to post this morning.

[Lord Greystoke]

So many numbers! What does it all mean??

LG

[TheSchmile]

What does it all mean??

LG
Without getting too philosophical LG, I stretched the minimum price out today as the main selection races had prices bigger than $6.

Taking Rosehill Race 7 as an example:

7-1 4.8, 6 8, 7 7, 8 7, 10 11, 11 6.5
8.5 18 15 12 7 41
201 17 81 51 4.2 201 / 10 $7.4 (11)

The first line is the horse number followed by the way2bet price, so:
7-1 4.8 means in race 7, horse number 1 was $4.8 on way2bet. Unfortunately the two lines below the first way2bet line do not format well but they are the Neaural price on the second line and the Don Scott price on the third line of prices.

Number 10 ended up having a price of $7.4 (10+7+4.2/3 =7.4)

Basically I start with all horses under $10 on way2bet in selected races, then add their Neural price and Don Scott price and divide the total by 3 to get a final price. The number in () is the TAB fixed price at the time.

Hope my explanation is clear, apologies if it's not, I'm a wee bit knackered.

[TheSchmile]

Another double figure overlay today in I Love Legs in the last at Scone. It was rated $6.5 and came home at $11.70 after commission. I need to do a full review of results but I think the method is slightly ahead for the win now. I didn't get a chance to do yesterday.

I'm going to cease this thread now as it requires many more months of testing before I do anything with it. I hope you've found it interesting!

If anyone has any questions you can reach me at:

paullytwoshoes at gmail dot com

Have a lovely night.