Weight

[Shaun]

Has anyone got info on horses dropping in weight from thier last start to this start....i am interested in how they perform with a weight drop of 5kg or more....thanks

[partypooper]

My research shows that a conveyance is more likely to win if contesting the current event within 3.5 kg's of its set weight from last start + or -, but alas all my research was done longhand, in reverse i.e. on analysing winners. In other words when analysing winners the vast majority were racing within 3.5 kg's of their set weight last start.

[darkydog2002]

shaun i would be looking at horses going up in wt rather than the reverse.
low weighted horses have an appalling record.
i.e.-50=0.1pc of runs 0.1 pc of wins.
50.5-51.5=1.4 pc of runs =0.7 pc of wins.
52-53 =34.8 pc of runs =21.3 pc of wins.
53.5-54.5 =27.2 pc of runs =27.3 pc of wins.
55 -56 =21.7 pc of runs = 27.9 pc of wins
56.5 -57.5 =10.2 pc of runs =15.5 pc of wins.
58 -59 = 2.7 pc of runs = 4.8 pc of wins.
59.5 -60.5 =0.4 pc of runs =0.7 pc of wins.
+61 = =1.5 pc of runs = 1.7 pc of wins.
hope this is of some help.good luck.

[capellia]

I was a keen student of weight/performance relationship - with some spectacular results! - and have just recently returned to racing after a 30 years long spell !!!

With the help of computers I hope to be able to come up with a more precise definition of meaning of weight. The figures that I start with are anywhere between 1.0 kg to 4.0 kg per length, depending on the horse's age, track condition, distance. Say, for three year olds, 1,600 m on a good track you may expect a horse to drop back by about one length for each 4 kg of weight. Or, on a heavy track by about one length for each kg of wight. These figures date back 30 years and will be re-evaluted in near future.

By the way, this relates to two same horses meeting again under those conditions, that is, it is relative rather than absolute.

hope I haven't confused you,
capellia