Test A Lay Method

[michaelg]

I've looked on and off at a Lay method but had for some unknown reason forgotten it until yesterday. I'm under the impression it had been successful.

So I checked Friday's and yesterday's results and was pleasantly surprised.

The rules are simple:

1) Neural default market.
2) Look at the top half of the Neural market and identify the outright worst rated in the CP category.

Filters:
1) Minimum of 9 runners.
2) Must not have won at last start or is resuming from a spell.
3) If it has 0 points it's a no-bet race.

On Friday there were 30 selections and yesterday 61 for no accidents. Almost half started at single prices on Unitab so the profit would have been quite acceptable. I'll list today's selections and lay them for $30 on S.P....and hope.

Hobart
2/6
6/9

Ballarat
2/7
8/8
10/17

Bunbury
3/8
4/6
5/7
7/6
8/3

Kilmore
2/1
6/7

Sun Coast
3/14
6/3
7/6

Clare
4/3
5/4
6/4
7/10

Goulburn
2/9
3/8

Grafton
1/3
2/15
3/14
4/3
7/16

Alice Springs
2/4

[Lord Greystoke]

Interesting method, michaelg..
Looks worthy of a double-ended heat map test.

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Thanks for the encouragement, L.G.

A current update - there's been 14 races so far for 14 smiles producing a profit of $28.69.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 27 smiles from the 27 selections for a profit of $43.82.

[The Ocho]

Well done michaelg. And good returns to boot!

[The Ocho]

Have you been looking at the place for these Michaelg?

I've just had a look at today's picks and 4 came a place out of 27 with the worse place paying 4.3 (I didn't check if there were any scratchings) with a profit of +13.32 for a $1 level lay bet minus commission. That's pretty good.

I'm not sure if that would be better than the win amount but it sounds pretty good.

[michaelg]

The Ocho,

unfortunately there is no Place facility on S.P otherwise I'd lay them each-way. However there is generally on the better meetings on Wed and Sat, and I might check it out when available.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Scone
3/10
7/6

Hamilton
3/7
4/9
5/8
6/8
7/13

[michaelg]

There were 7 smiles from the 7 selections for a profit of $6.40.

[Lord Greystoke]

STILL going strong!

Can you remind me how you are staking these michaelg?


LG

[michaelg]

L.G

I'm laying them for the minimum Liability of $30.

However, even though I often lay some of them for larger amounts I record them here as if I layed them for the $30 liability - I find it easier to keep records/results.

[SpeedyBen]

Michael
This is going very well. Can you tell me what is the logic behind this selection method. I know little about the neurals except that the name sounds sexy.

[Lord Greystoke]

L.G

I'm laying them for the minimum Liability of $30.

.

Did you mean maximum of $30??

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Speedyben, someone on this forum said some time ago that the CP algorithym has the highest strike rate of all the neurals, but not the most profitable because of the generally low divvies.

I'm under the impression that laying the worst CP in the race is not profitable because the divvy would generate a very low profit, and an accident could take some time to recoup. So, taking the top half of the neural market I would expect that if the winner of the race was struck in this top half, then the divvy should be quite low which conversely results in a high lay-divvy. And having the lowest CP rating in this top half should produce a low strike rate which we want for lay-betting. I hope I haven't made my explanation too confusing.

If there is logic to this maybe the general illogicality to the neurals might neutralize this - I'm hoping it doesn't.

Lord Greystoke, $30 is the minimum allowable when laying on Betfair S.P. It seems high, and I (and some others) think it is.

[The Ocho]

Lord Greystoke, $30 is the minimum allowable when laying on Betfair S.P. It seems high, and I (and some others) think it is.
I think it stinks that the minimum bet is $5 back or lay or, as you say, $30 lay liability at S.P. I also think it's a $50 minimum telephone bet.

I reckon they should bring it into line with the other betting operators here and make it say a 50 cent minimum bet like the Totes.

What are they doing, trying to encourage problem gamblers to lose their money even faster? That's a great corporate image to portray.

[michaelg]

The Ocho, the only reason I can think of applying the $30 minimum is that if an outsider is layed and successful, then the profit is very low and the commission Betfair receives is even lower..and unacceptable to them. However, that's only my assumption.

Out of interest I'll list today's selections:

Port Macquarie
1/10
2/3
3/3
6/6
7/5

Bairnsdale
8/5

Townsville
3/9
6/8
7/6

[SpeedyBen]

Not even a placegetter amongst today's lot, Michael, even though a couple were in the market.

[michaelg]

Yes, it would have been a good day...pity!

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Ascot
2/13
9/9

Dombeen
5/6

Launceston
1/3
2/2
3/9
5/9

Gawler
5/3
7/5

Newcastle
5/7

I have layed the Ascot and Dombeen selections to S.P. Place as this is available at these venues.

[michaelg]

There was an accident today for a loss $13.50.

After three days there's been 43 smiles from 44 selections for a profit of $36.72.

[The Ocho]

Sorry to hear about the loss today mg. How did the place lays go?

[michaelg]

Unfortunately there was an accident. I know it's early days but I surprisingly didn't get a kick out of laying them even when it was in profit. I don't think I will continue laying the Place.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Albany
6/13

Dubbo
4/3
5/1
7/8

Naracoorte
5/5 (current fave)

Rocky
2/6
5/10
6/6

[michaelg]

Today's eight selections became eight smiles for a somewhat disappointing profit of $5.26

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Canterbury
2/4

Moonee Valley
3/1
5/9

Canberra
5/1
6/8
8/17

Ipswich
6/7
7/10

Pakenham
2/14
4/13
5/7

Coffs
6/5
7/9

[TWOBETS]

Morning michaelg,

Cant r2 only has 8 runners?

[michaelg]

Thanks, TWOBETS.

The only reason I've limited the amount of runners to 9-plus is because of my other system where the maximum is eight runners, and is currently in profit.

So Canterbury race 2 is a no-race.

[michaelg]

A very bad day today with two accidents. I've never been too confident with the neurals nor Don Scott's market.

In spite of that I've been looking at laying outsiders based on his market over the past three days. On Wednesday there were no accidents nor yesterday, so today I began to lay the selections. There were two accidents but I still showed a profit of $21.72.

Tomorrow I'll begin a new thread giving the selections and detailing the rules.