How to rate race classes

[CairnsMan]

Hi Everyone,
Over several years I have read several books on racing including texts by Don Scott and Paul Sagar and others.

In most of these books the approach to handicapping races and runners is to alot a given kilogram weight for each class of race and assume that a runner would have to improve by a given number of kilograms to be competitive in the next higher race class.

For example, if a typical maiden race is allotted 40kg as a base and a class 1 was equal to 41kg then the maiden winner would need a weight advantage of 1kg to be competitive in the class 1 race.

I decided to check this out against my own database comprising over 41,500 races with 453,700 runners.

I narrowed down the search to just study the average race times for tracks rated as GOOD, at a distance of 1200 meters for Maiden and Class 1 races.

The result was that the average races time for a Maiden race was 71.60539 seconds and for a Class 1 71.02165 seconds.

The difference between these two averages id 0.58374 seconds in favour of the Class 1 races.

This means that a Maiden winner would have to improve their race time by over half a second to successfully compete in a Class 1 race.

My question is what Weight would 0.58 seconds represent over 1200meters.

In many texts I have read the accepted standard of 1.5kg represents 1 length at 1200 meters, but many would disagree with this figure and perhaps it is a bit out of date. Many say that there should be a sliding scale for various distances, the logic being that it’s harder to carry 1kg over a longer distance than over the shorter distances. I think that those proponents of this theory have forgotten their physics which shows that energy is derived from both mass and speed, therefore since longer races are run at a slower speed require less energy for the same mass.

Any Thoughts on this topic?

Kind Regards

CairnsMan

[Sands]

My question is what Weight would 0.58 seconds represent over 1200meters.

In many texts I have read the accepted standard of 1.5kg represents 1 length at 1200 meters,
Any Thoughts on this topic?

Kind Regards

CairnsMan
Read somewhere that a second is equivalent to around 2.7 lengths
So if that was near correct, 0.58 seconds is around 1.56 lengths
Around 2.34 kg in weight

[CairnsMan]

Read somewhere that a second is equivalent to around 2.7 lengths
So if that was near correct, 0.58 seconds is around 1.56 lengths
Around 2.34 kg in weightHi Sands,

A 1200 meter race run in 71 seconds would mean that the horse is traveling at average of 16.9 m/sec.

Given that a length is 8ft (2.438 meters) then one length would be about 0.14 seconds...

so if 2.7 lengths = 1 second then a 71 second race would be 191.7 lths long or about (191 X 2.4m). Less than 500 meters..

Thanks for your input, but I suggest you've been misled..

CairnsMan

[Sands]

Been a while since I read the article CairnsMan, so most likely a memory error
I recall there was also some reference to the last 600m sectionals but like I said been a while since I read

[Try Try Again]

I've always understood that 1 second = 6 lengths but as Sands said it could be a memory error.

[MyHatMyCoat]

Depending on your info source, I think you'll find that 6-7 lens is generally considered to equal 1 second in race time

[CairnsMan]

Here’s a follow up to this topic.

I went back and carried out the same test on my database for each of the other race classes, and here are the results. All of these are average races times for 1200 meters on a track Rated as good.

Maidens: 71.605
Class 1: 71.0216
Class 2: 70.861
Class 3: 70.481
Class 4: 70.405
Class 5: 70.1266
Class 6: 69.8976

Now if you draw a graph of these figures you’ll see an almost linear reduction in race times between classes. (About .28s between each class on average.) We could say that if a Class 2 race was run at the Class 3 times then the leading runners could be said to have performed at the higher class level.

In a typical race, the race times are split between the start to home turn section and the home turn to the finish sections of a race. The latter being run at a “flat out” pace and the earlier section is referred to the race pace, where jockeys attempt to get their mounts into the best position ready for the finish run.

My big question is how much weight will cause a runner to perform .28s worse?

I think it was Rem Plante or Don Scott that created an Acceleration-Deceleration graph that showed that adding weight slowed a horse down, but taking weight off didn’t normally increase its speed.

I know that weight is most effective in the last 400m home turn to the finish of a race and if you watch a runner that’s carrying 59kg or more, you will almost always see that’s it’s unable to sprint in the final stages of the race and usually gets beaten.

So, the question is, what weight increase represents 0.28 seconds of race time. A 1200 meter race is run in 71 seconds, so the speed is 16.9 meters per second. So 0.28s = 4.732 meters, a horse is 2.4384m so 0.28 seconds represents 1.94 lengths, say 2 lengths.

Now if the Rem Plante, Don Scott or Paul Sagar’s are correct 1.5 kg = 1 length at 1200 meters, so the answer is 3Kg between classes. But racing has changed a lot since the 1960-1970’s so is the 1.5kg = 1 length still valid?