Lay Don Scott's Outsiders

[The Ocho]

T.O. in your last post you did mention today, but said nothing specific about it, except that it's another day. Even though you did mention today there were no accidents, in fact I don't think any of the selections even Placed which is unusually very good and it probably indicates there's nothing to your "curse".

After three successive losing days the method won today.

From the 56 selections there were 56 smiles for a profit of $40.84.

There have now been 1224 smiles from 1248 selections (a strike rate of 98%) for an all-time high of $212.60.
Good stuff mg. Very nice.

I won't say anything about tomorrow other than it's another day. ;)

[michaelg]

T.O, it's your decision. I am very skeptical about curses even though there are some short-timed bursts that could suggest otherwise. However, in the long run it should even itself out.

If you want to continue to wish the method good luck please do so.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Gunnedah
2/5
5/2

Murwillumbah
1/3
2/6
3/7, 8 ,9
4/15, 16
5/6, 7
6/5

Ararat
3/6, 9
7/14
8/6, 15

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg,

Congrats on your profit thus far, may it long continue!

I was wondering if you are still using your 'lay the field' method? I recall from previous posts you were doing extremely well with this!

Anyway,
Best of luck as always and thanks for another interesting thread!!

[michaelg]

Thanks, TheSchmile.

I still lay the field using a fixed formula however only when I get the urge. It's been working profitably here, U.K. and U.S, but I must be at the computer just before the race jumps to ensure the price of the fave is over a certain price and lay the other horses for certain amounts according to their price.

In fact, I haven't layed the field since early December even though it's showing a profit in all three countries. The profits aren't all that high and at the moment it's too much work for a small profit.

[michaelg]

A bad day. From the 17 selections there was one accident for a loss of $11.57. The method's still over $200 in profit.

[The Ocho]

Thanks, TheSchmile.

I still lay the field using a fixed formula however only when I get the urge. It's been working profitably here, U.K. and U.S, but I must be at the computer just before the race jumps to ensure the price of the fave is over a certain price and lay the other horses for certain amounts according to their price.

In fact, I haven't layed the field since early December even though it's showing a profit in all three countries. The profits aren't all that high and at the moment it's too much work for a small profit.
A bot would be able to do that for you I would say.

As far as the day was concerned, no comment. ;)

[TheSchmile]

Hi The Ocho,

I thought I'd send out a good luck message today to break your hoodoo. :)

Regardless, the sun will hopefully rise again tomorrow and michaelg will still be $200 ahead on the method.

Michaelg, just out of interest, what percentage of bank are you using?

[The Ocho]

Hi The Ocho,

I thought I'd send out a good luck message today to break your hoodoo. :)

Regardless, the sun will hopefully rise again tomorrow and michaelg will still be $200 ahead on the method.

Michaelg, just out of interest, what percentage of bank are you using?
Well good luck The Schmile in wishing michaelg good luck. :)

A loss of $11.57 in the scheme of things is nothing anyway. I certainly wouldn't write home about it.

[michaelg]

T.O. Unfortunately I know nothing about bots and having read here that there could be problems with certain bots if left unattended I would feel uneasy to do so.

Out of interest I today Layed the Field in a few races and made a small profit. I'm now also thinking of also doing it in England tonight.

T.S, I don't lay a percentage of the bank, just a fixed liability, currently of $66 but recorded here as $33. I have been testing this staking even before I started listing the selections here and it has been quite profitable. During the testing period there were 179 smiles from 182 selections for a profit of $117.33...so the current result is disappointing.

Thank you T.O. and T.S. for the ongoing good wishes.

[The Ocho]

T.O. Unfortunately I know nothing about bots and having read here that there could be problems with certain bots if left unattended I would feel uneasy to do so.
I'm not sure where you've read that mg. I've never had a problem with an unattended bot. You can also have a stop loss or even a trailing stop loss so, in case your worried, the bot will stop. You can even just leave enough money in your account so that it won't keep betting (if you're really worried).

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

I'm certain I read it here a few years ago. Maybe it referred to a particular bot and has since been rectified. And not knowing about computers I'm worried I'd make a mess of it without being able to fix any problem.

Last night I layed the field in six U.K. races for a profit.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Nowra
4/6
5/7, 11, 13
7/13, 14
8/6

W'bool
6/10
7/8

Townsville
2/13
3/3, 4, 10
5/11, 13
7/8

[SpeedyBen]

I'm not sure where you've read that mg. I've never had a problem with an unattended bot. You can also have a stop loss or even a trailing stop loss so, in case your worried, the bot will stop. You can even just leave enough money in your account so that it won't keep betting (if you're really worried).Mine runs nightly without a problem. I don't do it but the suggestion to keep bank small is a good one if you are worried. You can transfer part of your money into the other wallet so it's easy to do.

[michaelg]

Thanks S.B. but I would not feel comfortable.

Today was a terrible day. One accident from 16 selections for a loss of $21.67.

From the last seven days four of them have lost a total of $20.48 over that period.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wyong
2/7
4/10
5/9, 14
6/10
7/5

Dombeen
3/7
6/3
7/10

Murray Bridge
6/2
8/8

Sandown
4/2, 7, 10
5/9

Launceston
1/9
2/6

Pinjarra
1/3, 10
3/14
4/4, 8, 11, 17
5/9
6/6, 10, 14
7/9, 12
8/2, 14, 16

There are a few at single prices in the Tele pre-post market.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. From the 34 selections there were 34 smiles for a profit of $32.67.

[UselessBettor]

Nice work. I assume the bank is back to a new high or at least very close.

[michaelg]

Hi, U.B.

Unfortunately it is not at a new high. Last Sunday it was at its highest at $212.60 but yesterday it was at $212.03 which is only an overall loss of $0.57. Hopefully today will rectify that.

Today's selections:

Muswellbrook
2/7, 10
3/1, 2, 8, 11, 15
4/1, 7
5/9
7/9
8/1, 10

Rocky
3/1
6/3, 12, 14

Sale
3/1
7/5

Bunbury
1/8, 13, 15
2/3, 4, 5, 13
3/7
4/4
6/1, 12, 15
7/7, 8, 10, 11

[michaelg]

There was one accident from the 36 selections for a profit of $5.78.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Stawell
7/10
8/4, 10

Ipswich
3/14
6/8, 9, 10, 11
7/4

Cranbourne
2/5
8/4

Gosford
1/8, 9, 10
2/14
4/12
7/12

Mudgee
1/1, 9
4/6, 11
7/9
8/10

[michaelg]

Today there were 18 selections for 18 smiles for a profit of $17.61.

[UselessBettor]

The new highs just keep rolling in each day.

Nice work.

[michaelg]

Hi, U.B.

That's now three successive winning days - the record is five. The worst run of losing days is three, and there's been 27 winning days from 39.

It's still maintaining it's 98% strike rate with 1342 smiles from 1369 selections.

The method's now $235.42 in profit. Slowly but surely...

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Albury
1/3
2/2, 7, 13
3/16
6/13

Rosehill
5/5, 6, 11
7/7 (Telegraph p.post fave)

Flemington
5/3
6/10
7/1

Eagle Farm
5/10

Morphrtville
6/10
7/5, 10, 11
8/14

Gold Coast
4/7
5/9, 10

Kembla
3/5, 6, 10, 13
7/2, 4

Coonamble
1/9, 10
2/6
3/10
4/9, 10
5/6, 9, 10
6/2

Camperdown
1/1, 8
3/7, 11
7/4, 6, 8

Toowoomba
1/3, 8
2/8
6/2, 9

Ascot
5/12
7/10, 12, 13, 14

[SpeedyBen]

i had 2 filters
ds> 100
starts > 9

i will max out the price at 100 and see what happensI checked this out for a while Aussie and it looked very good. I started laying the horses for fun and it has won an amount equal to my liability each day when I have stopped.
Thanks for the info. I have one question. Michael operates in fields of 9 or more but you have said that your filter was >9. Is it >9 that you filtered on or => 9?
Thanks

[michaelg]

Not a bad day even though there was an accident. There were 54 smiles from 55 selections for a profit of $26.27.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Ballina
1/8, 9, 12, 13
5/14, 15, 16, 18
6/7, 9
7/13

Ballarat
4/1, 3

Tamworth
2/9
5/12
7/1, 3, 11

Sun Coast
2/6, 10
3/9
5/6
6/11
7/1
8/9

Mt Gambier
1/5, 7
4/3, 4, 6
6/10
7/11
8/13

Pakenham
1/4, 5
2/11
6/14
7/5, 13

Hobart
1/8
3/1, 11
5/5
7/2, 7, 8,, 9, 10

Mt Barker
3/9
4/3
5/8, 9
6/10, 11

[michaelg]

There were 49 smiles from the 50 selections for a profit of $11.92.

That's five successive winning days which has equalled the record.

[UselessBettor]

great work again.

You are a champion at these type of systems.

[michaelg]

Thanks, U.B.

However I think it might be too early to tell if the method has legs. There's only been 1474 selections (for 1445 smiles) over a period of a month and a half.

Maybe the general accuracy of the D.Scott market should also take some credit.

Let's hope it continues.

[michaelg]

There's been problems getting into this site but it now seems to have been rectified.

Today's selections:

Wangaratta
1/9
2/4, 13
3/7, ,8
5/7, 12
6/13
7/5
8/15

Bathurst
1/10
4/12
5/5
6/9
7/7, 8

Moruya
1/3, 7
2/11
3/4, 6, 13
5/13
7/2, 7
8/11

[michaelg]

A good day.

There were 26 smiles from the 26 selections for a profit of $21.35. That's six winning days in a row which is a record.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Port Mac
2/9, 10
4/3, 9
5/7, 9, 10
6/2, 12
8/11

Kilmore
3/2, 4
4/2, 8, 9
7/2
8/2, 3, 10

Townsville
3/2
5/12
7/3, 11

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg,

Top show thus far!! 6 winning days in a row there's bound to be one or two corrections but I sincerely hope the upward trend continues!!!

Just checking I have the rules you are presently using right:

1) $100-plus in D.S. market.
2) Not resuming at this or previous start.
3) Minimum of two career starts.
4) Placed 7th or worse at last start.
5) Minimum 9 starters.

[michaelg]

Hi, T.S.

A couple of minor changes which I have been using for most of the period.

1) If any horse has 3.5 points or more in the Form column of the Worksheet then it does not qualify,
2) The selection may have only the one career start. If more than one then it must not be resuming now or at previous start.

I have often been laying for more than the standard $33 which I record here just for convenience. From today I have layed the early selections for a standard $333 and expect do so for the later selections.

[TheSchmile]

Thanks for clarifying Michaelg!!

[TheSchmile]

From today I have layed the early selections for a standard $333 and expect do so for the later selections.
If you'd have started at this level from the beginning of the trial your profit would be approx $2900.

Tasty.

[michaelg]

Yes, it would have been $2,940. However for that period I've won slightly over $3,000. I can't get too confident because anything can happen and usually does.

[TheSchmile]

Yes, it would have been $2,940. However for that period I've won slightly over $3,000. I can't get too confident because anything can happen and usually does.
Good onya Michaelg!!!

If anyone deserves to be ahead in this game it's you!!!

Your contributions to this forum are nothing short of inspirational.

[michaelg]

Thanks for your encouragement and kind words, TS.

A good day today. From the 21 selections there were 21 smiles for a profit of $287.73.

[TheSchmile]

Giddyup Michaelg!!!

SHA-ZAAM!!!

[UselessBettor]

great day again.

[michaelg]

Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections:

Kembla
7/10, 14, 20

Ballarat
3/2, 3
4/3, 7, 9, 11
6/1
7/1, 10

Dombeen
1/9
5/7
6/1

Gawler
2/6, 10
3/2
5/6, 15
7/5, 10
8/10, 11

Launeston
1/5
2/12, 13, 15
4/3
5/10
7/6
8/3

Ascot
2/6
3/7
5/9
6/5
7/7, 11, 14
8/1, 10 ,13

[michaelg]

Correction - Gawler 8/11 is not a selection. In fact it is D.Scott's fave. The real selection is no.12 (and also no.10).

I hope no.11 does not win the race because I've already layed it.

[SpeedyBen]

Correction - Gawler 8/11 is not a selection. In fact it is D.Scott's fave. The real selection is no.12 (and also no.10).

I hope no.11 does not win the race because I've already layed it.Murphy's Law strikes again. Bad luck Michael.

[michaelg]

Fortunately I decided to back it on the Exchange, winning a few cents on it.

Today's very first selection was an accident (terrible way to start the day) for a loss of $333. However the loss is currently $68.96, and with six races to go I'm hoping to finish with a small loss or even a profit.

[SpeedyBen]

Fortunately I decided to back it on the Exchange, winning a few cents on it.

Today's very first selection was an accident (terrible way to start the day) for a loss of $333. However the loss is currently $68.96, and with six races to go I'm hoping to finish with a small loss or even a profit.Good call.

[michaelg]

A terrible day. There were two accidents for a loss of $343.30.

After two days of increasing the liability from $33 to $333 the total loss for the two days is $55.50.

The system up to then had 1471 smiles from 1500 selections for a profit of $294.96 ($33 liability).

[stugots]

michaelg, just something I noticed about the 2 winners yesterday was that they both were ranked in the top 4 unitab/tatts ratings, maybe theres something to look at there if you haven't already.

[michaelg]

Hi, Stugots.

I've looked at Unitab's ratings to see if I could find some sort of consistency in the accidents, but only those selections that were rated with 90 Unitab points or more. However I soon disregarded this because there were many selections that became smiles, and the resulting profit was high. As mentioned, I unfortunately only looked at the ratings but not the rankings as you suggest.

Yes, yesterday's two accidents were both ranked in the top four of Unitab's selections.

Thanks for your suggestion, Stugots which I think may have merit. I have not identified those selections that are in Unitab's top four rankings but I will do so when I get the time to go through the records, and will report the results here, hopefully before I list today's selections. I don't expect too many selections because it would not be common for D.S to price something at $100-plus yet it be in the top four in Unitab's rankings But there's only one way to find out which I will do.

[demodocus]

Michaelg, here are some number to assist you.

Using the following rules ONLY

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Min 9 prev. starts
c) Placed 7th or worse last start

produces 8.2% winners broken down as follows:-

AAP Price ..... %
1.1 - 6 ..... 4.2%
6.1 - 11 ... 2.3%
11.1 - 16 .. 0.8%
16.1 - 21 .. 0.5%
21.1 - 26 .. 0.1%
26.1 - 31 .. 0.1%
31.1 - 36 .. 0.1%
36.1+ ...... 0.1%

The price seems to be a very good guide :-)

Sample size 186k races 2m neddies.

[michaelg]

Stugots, I have checked the accidents that were in Unitab's top 4 or equal top four rankings/selections.

There were 14 such accidents from an overall total of 31 accidents.

However, I don't know how many smiles there were from Unitab's top four rankings or their results (it would have taken ages to do so), so I can't say with any certainty if it is better to apply your suggestion as a filter.

But because almost 50% of the accidents were in the top four Unitab rankings I therefore have to assume it would have been better to omit them from the method. The resulting "smiles" strike rate may have been close to 99%, and so if I/anyone ever decides to apply some sort of stakings/recovery plan it might be less dangerous.

From today your suggestion is a filter.

If I get time I will look at betting Unitab's top four rankings.

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice work michaelg.

I may have a suitable staking/recovery plan - are you able to bang all the the selections into one post or spreadsheet for ease of testing (assuming you have these to hand) or are we talking something more lengthy than the dead sea scrolls?

Cheers LG

[stugots]

Interesting Michael - just a rough count from yesterday I came up with 5 out of 38 bets ranked top 4, so approx 13% of bets.

If yesterday was typical then dropping ~ 13% of bets to eliminate 40% to 50% of winners should improve the bottom line.

[michaelg]

Demodocus, thanks for your "simple" size.

Is (b) correct - 9 previous starts? Or should it be a minimum of 9 starters?

Unfortunately I would have to be at my computer to check out the prices of the qualifiers which I am unable/cannot do, but still it is very interesting. As you say, the price seems to be a very good guide - this might be connected to Unitab's rankings as suggested by Stugots.

L.G. unfortunately I don't have the results on the computer. I can't help your inquiry, but thanks for your offer.

Stugots, I agree with your analysis of yesterday. According to my reckoning there are three selections today that your filter has eliminated.

Today's selections:

Goulburn
1/3, 11
7/2, 14

Pinjarra
1/14, 17
2/4, 11
3/4, 5
4, 2, 6
5/7
6/11
7/16

Seymour
8/4

[demodocus]

Demodocus, thanks for your "simple" size.

Is (b) correct - 9 previous starts? Or should it be a minimum of 9 starters?

Oh dear. Old age, a tiny mind, and a stone heart are catching up with me. Let's try again :-)

Sole Parameters (nothing else) :-

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Minimum 2 previous starts
c) Last run place 7th or worse
d) Field >8 starters

Bulk result .......... 6.27% WSR

AAPPrice ............ WSR
1.1 - 6 .......... 2.94%
6.1 - 11 ........ 1.52%
11.1 - 16 ...... 0.81%
16.1 - 21 ...... 0.26%
21.1 - 26 ...... 0.16%
26.1 - 31 ...... 0.03%
31.1 - 36 ...... 0.09%
36.1 - 41 ...... 0.05%
41+ ............. 0.06%

And there you have it :-)

Regards,

RB

[Lord Greystoke]

Oh dear. Old age, a tiny mind, and a stone heart are catching up with me. Let's try again :-)

Sole Parameters (nothing else) :-

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Minimum 2 previous starts
c) Last run place 7th or worse
d) Field >8 starters

Bulk result .......... 6.27% WSR

AAPPrice ............ WSR
1.1 - 6 .......... 2.94%
6.1 - 11 ........ 1.52%
11.1 - 16 ...... 0.81%
16.1 - 21 ...... 0.26%
21.1 - 26 ...... 0.16%
26.1 - 31 ...... 0.03%
31.1 - 36 ...... 0.09%
36.1 - 41 ...... 0.05%
41+ ............. 0.06%

And there you have it :-)

Regards,

RB

It's a window into another dimension, RB!

AAP would be Way2bet etc?

Cheers LG

[demodocus]

It's a window into another dimension, RB!
Be careful, my Lord, I run something similar every day using BetSender. There are still disasters :-)

My dog now has only three legs.

RB

[Lord Greystoke]

All understood RB...

Tread carefully (and tell that to fido out back)

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

Unfortunately I would have to be at my computer to check out the prices of the qualifiers which I am unable/cannot do, but still it is very interesting.

You REALLY need to get a bot going. You would pay for it in no time.

[michaelg]

T.O, unfortunately not being too familiar with computers I would be lost. I'm relatively happy without a bot.

Today was a good day. From the 12 selections there were 12 smiles for a profit of $86.10. From the three days of laying for a liability of $333 the method is currently in $30.60 profit.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Scone
2/1, 3,
3/9,14
7/10
8/13, 14

Canberra
7/13
8/4, 13

Terang
2/10
5/11
7/12

Ipswich
7/12, 14, 15

Canterbury
2/7
4/14
6/3, 11

Moonee Valley
2/10
3/6, 7

[SpeedyBen]

Hi Michael
Can you tell me why you eliminated Terang R5, 6?

[michaelg]

Speedy Ben.

It should have been a selection. A few days ago when Stugots suggested I omit Unitab's top four ranked I checked the results from day one and noticed there were three selections that were 96-plus points on Unitab. One of them was an accident and the other two finished second and fourth. I decided this was another filter that would be applied to the method but it completely slipped my mind to mention it here.

Sorry. Hope you or anyone didn't lay it.

[SpeedyBen]

I did lay it but it was not your fault in any way. I'm almost back to square for the day as Ip R6 approaches.

[michaelg]

Hi, Speedy Ben, I hope you made a profit.

Today's 22 selections became 22 smiles for a profit of $210.26.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
7/11, 13
8/1, 2

Caulfield
6/1, 9
7/7

Sun Coast
3/9, 10
5/4, 17
7/3, 20
8/18

M'ville
8/2, 10

Wyong
2/14
4/10
5/1
6/1, 11

Wagga
2/2, 7
3/2
5/9, 11, 13

Coffs
1/6
2/8, 10
4/6, 7, 10
5/10
6/2

Gold Coast
4/8
7/9
8/12, 13

Sale
2/15

Toowoomba
1/9, 12

Ascot
7/8

[UselessBettor]

Good luck today. I find Saturdays one of the hardest days laying longshots.

[michaelg]

Thanks for your good wishes, U.B.

I've had a look at the results for Saturdays. There have been seven Saturdays so for five winning days for a profit of $90.26.

So I'm hopeful...

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 37 selections there were 37 smiles for a profit of $462.32.

[michaelg]

Not many selections today:

Newcastle
4/18
7/9
8/14

Werribee
3/12
4/6, 7
5/10

Benalla
4/1

Port Lincoln
4/2
5/1, 3, 12
7/11

Geraldton
4/8

[michaelg]

From today's 14 selections there were 14 smiles for a profit of $163.97.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wellington
1/11
2/2, 6, 9
3/14
4/11

Murray Bridge
2/9
4/1, 3

Mornington
2/10
4/9
5/9

Bunbury
1/5, 8, 11
2/12
4/6
5/10
8/4, 10

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. From the 18 selections there were 18 smiles for a profit of $88.67.

After the first week of increasing the bets to a liability of $333, the profit made is $975.84.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Murtoa
8/9, 11

Mackay
6/6, 7, 9, 11

[SpeedyBen]

Today's selections:

Murtoa
8/9, 11

Mackay
6/6, 7, 9, 11Mother Nature is playing havoc with race mtgs here and in the UK Michael.

[michaelg]

S.B.

Townsville 4/10 won at huge odds and finished like a favoured horse. It would have been a selection (and an accident) but thankfully it was eliminated by the filter of must not be resuming now or at its previous start.

I've got my fingers crossed for today's two races.

[michaelg]

Today's 6 selections became 6 smiles (one ran second, thankfully it was beaten) for a profit of $37.58.

[SpeedyBen]

S.B.

Townsville 4/10 won at huge odds and finished like a favoured horse. It would have been a selection (and an accident) but thankfully it was eliminated by the filter of must not be resuming now or at its previous start.

I've got my fingers crossed for today's two races.I am running two versions of your plan, Michael. One is similar to yours but the other is much looser. I laid the above mentioned horse at Mackay at $230. ( What kind of fool backed it, I'd like to know ). I had laid the leader in the race in running for $100 so I was pleased to see the longshot steaming down the outside.

[stugots]

What kind of fool backed it, I'd like to know



Shouldn't that be the other way around?;)

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Eagle Farm
3/7
5/9
7/4, 13

Gawler
3/1, 2, 12
5/9, 11
6/6, 7, 9, 10, 11
7/9
8/13

Ballarat
2/16
7/3

Ascot
3/8, 11
4/5, 13
6/5, 6 ,12
7/11
8/2, 13

Launceston
3/11
4/4, 8, 10, 15
6/11
8/1
9/4, 5, 12

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg,

What are your thoughts on Heavy tracks, such as Eagle Farm today?

I recall in a different thread of yours sometime ago, that you preferred to skip these meetings?

[michaelg]

Yes, T.S, heavy tracks have always been a worry.

However, from day one I've not discriminated with the state of the track for this Lay method and unfortunately have not kept records. Because of this I have to "fly blind" and assume/hope that the D.S. and Unitab ratings are fairly accurate when combined, but there's always the added possibility that the best horse may not win the race or even come close to it because of the unpredictably of the track.

[TheSchmile]

No worries Michaelg,

Hope it keeps on going strong!!

[michaelg]

Not a good day. There was one accident from the 35 selections for a loss of $71.10.

I went to the pub to watch the Geale/Mundine fight (glad I didn't have a bet because I thought Mundine was at a good price) but before I went I increased the size of some of the system bets, fortunately to end up with an overall profit.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wyong
7/11

W'bool
1/7, 8
4/7, 15, 16
6/10
7/2, 14

Albany
1/6, 8, 11
2/3, 11
5/9
6/4, 7, 11
7/2

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - from the 18 selections there were 18 smiles for a profit of $158.88.

Happily, yesterday's loss of $71.10 has been recouped.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Tamworth
2/15
3/1, 6
4/4, 14, 15, 18
6/10
8/11

Albury
2/8
3/11
4/7, 9
6/9, 13, 16

W'ratta
1/4, 7
3/2
4/4
6/12
7/14

Ipswich
7/7, 9

M.Valley
6/12
8/3

[stugots]

Going nicely MG - are you keeping track of those excluded by the Unitab ratings rules as there might be a back system there

[michaelg]

Unfortunately I don't keep that type of record.

However I've been on-and-off looking at boxing quinellas of all the horses that are not the lay selections, so almost all the field is boxed. However I haven't kept records but expect to do so when/if I get time.

For example, yesterday the quinella was struck in the 10 qualifying races. The total outlay was $467 and the Unitab return was $985.

[michaelg]

Out of interest I've checked the results of box quinellas for today's races already run.

There's currently been 7 races for 7 successes. An outlay of $298 for a return of $580.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. From the 23 selections there were 23 smiles for a profit of $170.31.

From the 16 races there were 16 successful quinellas. The outlay was $638 for a return of $855.

[Merriguy]

Going along swimmingly, Michael. If you are in Sydney you had have to be able to swim over the last 24 hours or so!!!

Two things though, for the sake of accuracy, by my count there were only 17 selections yesterday, or really only 16 as Tamworth 8 was abandoned.

Your quinella idea seems to have legs. Which TAB are you using for your figures?

[UselessBettor]

The problem with exotics is that pay a lot less as soon as you start betting on them.

[stugots]

Amen to that

[michaelg]

Hi, Merriguy, I've been using Unitab. However today I'll be betting them all on NSW but only for the minimum with flexi-betting which is more or less the same principle when laying for a liability. By my calcs if I had flexi-bet yesterday the profit would have been higher percentage-wise.

Today's selections:

Caulfield
5/1
7/8

Dombeen
3/14
5/5, 7, 9
6/9, 11, 12
9/10

Morphetville
5/12
6/10, 11
8/4

Kembla
2/10
8/11

Casino
5/7, 9, 11
6/11
7/8, 9

Kyneton
2/5
3/4, 7, 10
5/3, 12

Gold Coast
2/15
4/10
8/3, 13

Toowoomba
4/13
6/2, 11, 12
7/10
8/10

Ascot
4/3
5/9
8/8

[michaelg]

Correction - Kembla 8/11 is not a selection because it's got 97 Unitab points.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. From the 38 selections there were 38 smiles for a profit of $332.51.

I didn't have a bet on the quinellas, but from a quick check I think I would've lost. When I get time I will check.

[UselessBettor]

Not a bad day. From the 38 selections there were 38 smiles for a profit of $332.51.

I didn't have a bet on the quinellas, but from a quick check I think I would've lost. When I get time I will check.
Michaelg, just be careful with exotics. They are worthwhile in the bigger meetings but for those country meetings you can seriously affect you odds.

For example Kembla Range 2
The Quinalla had 3883 cash in the pool. Assuming it paid out 85% that will be $3300. It paid out $74.20 That means there were approx 45 winners.
You become winner 46. That drops the odds to $71.70

Thats only if you bet $1 on it. If you bet $10 on it then the odds would drop to $60. this stops you scaling it up with more money. And it might even be enough at minimum stakes to drop too many odds and result in a loss.

[michaelg]

Thanks, U.B.

I've seldom been interested in quinellas and always assumed Saturday meetings held worthwhile pools so I was surprised when you mentioned Kembla R2. So it's something for me to consider especially if I bet early, however if I do bet I expect to flexi-bet for the minimum of $0.50.

I've done a little research on the quinella system. Boxing races where there are three or more selections that are eliminated because of the Lay D.S. outsiders, doesn't seem too painful. I have checked the results from Sat 19 Jan and there have been 39 of these races. A dollar outlay was $1,396 and the return on Unitab was $1,760.

And only looking at those races where there have been a maximum of 10 quinella selections there was a total outlay of $1,095 for a return of $1,635 which is a POT of better than 50%. I might start flexi-betting these race today for $0.50.

Today's lay selections:

Sapphire Coast
1/3, 6, 9, 13, 14
4/9, 12
6/11, 12
8/16

Sun Coast
4/7, 13
5/5
6/3, 4
7/7
8/19
10/17, 20

Mudgee
2/6, 7
3/8, 13
5/4, 6, 13
6/9

Sale
3/4
6/9
7/15
8/14, 15

Terang
2/10
3/14
5/9

Penola
3/5, 7, 10
4/1, 4, 6, 8, 9
6/9
7/12

Hobart
3/10, 14
7/9
8/5, 6
9/10

[michaelg]

A good day. From the 50 selections there were 50 smiles for a profit of $428.18.

[UselessBettor]

A good day. From the 50 selections there were 50 smiles for a profit of $428.18.amazing yet again.

[michaelg]

Yes, another amazing profit which I think might unfortunately be making me too confident and expecting the method to be profitable every day. One or two losses will quickly fix that.

After tomorrow's races it will be the end of two weeks of laying for $333 liabilities and I will then give an update.

[TheSchmile]

Bravo Michaelg!! :)

[michaelg]

Thanks, TS.

Today's selections:

Benalla
2/1
4/2
8/6, 13

Cessnock
1/12
3/17
5/11, 12

[SpeedyBen]

Well done, Michael.
This method seems to have legs.

[UselessBettor]

Another good day.

[michaelg]

Thanks, SB.

Today's eight selections were beaten for a profit of $44.16.

After two weeks there have been 337 smiles from 340 selections for a profit of $2,073.

[stugots]

Nice work if you can get it;)

[UselessBettor]

Thanks, SB.

Today's eight selections were beaten for a profit of $44.16.

After two weeks there have been 337 smiles from 340 selections for a profit of $2,073.
Nice work for the last 2 weeks.

[Mark]

Well done michaelg.

[The Ocho]

I wish I could say well done on your efforts michaelg but I just can't do that to you. ;)

[michaelg]

Thanks, gents, including you, T.O.

T.O. I have to assume you wish the method well and I don't believe in curses, not even here on the forum. I expect to be proven correct particularly because when "your" accidents occurred two of the current filters did not exist at that time.

Today's selections:

Taree
2/3, 7
3/8
4/3, 9
6/13
7/5, 6, 10
8/7

Swan Hill
2/4
5/2, 4
6/10

Townsville
5/1, 8
7/3, 8

[The Ocho]

T.O. I have to assume you wish the method well

You would be correct in that assumption.

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

Now let's see the curse vapourise.

[michaelg]

Correction - Taree 7/6 is not a selection because it in the top 4 of Unitab's rankings. (Stugot's filter).

[michaelg]

A very bad day. There were two accidents from 25 selections for a loss of $585.00.

No, T.O. You did not cause the loss. The last five days all won so it was about time to be hit with a loss.

[The Ocho]

A very bad day. There were two accidents from 25 selections for a loss of $585.00.

No, T.O. You did not cause the loss. The last five days all won so it was about time to be hit with a loss.
Sorry to hear that michaelg. I know it's stupid but I do sometimes feel like a cooler.

For the sake of yourself and all your followers, I won't bother saying any congratulatory things on this thread again. Just know that I'll still be looking on with interest.

[michaelg]

T.O.

Don't worry about it, it's all coincidence even though if I were in your position I would probably have your very attitude. If you ever want to comment again please do so.

Today's selections

Kembla
6/6

Sandown
3/15
6/7
7/9

Dombeen
3/1, 4
5/11, 15
7/13
9/14

Strathalbyn
1/6
2/2, 4
4/3
6/11
7/14

Ascot
2/6, 9
3/10
4/7, 10
5/13
8/16

[michaelg]

Today's 22 selections were beaten for a profit of $145.76.

[TheSchmile]

Back in the black Michaelg.

[michaelg]

Yes, TS, but it's still got $444 to make up for Tuesday's loss.

If I had started from day one (Friday 7 December) laying for the current $333 liability the method would now be in profit by $4,585. So at the moment I'm still somewhat hopeful even though a couple of quick accidents do put a dent in one's confidence and create some negative thoughts and expectations.

Today's selections:

Grafton
4/12
5/10
8/11, 13
9/13
10/10, 12

Seymour
2/2
3/9
8/9, 12

Sun Coast
4/5
5/9, 12
6/6
7/5, 9, 11

Pt Lincoln
7/7

Geraldton
3/3, 6
4/4, 10
7/5, 7

[TheSchmile]

You're batting at a 98% SR Michaelg, 2 out of every 100 will be losses. Simple at the moment.

I noticed both the accidents were c or t/d winners. Something in that?

Great thread!

[michaelg]

Thanks for your observation, TS.

I haven't paid attention to the selection's history apart from it's last start placing and if resuming now or at previous start, but as soon as I get the time I will do so and report back here.

It certainly would have saved Tuesday's two accidents but it may have prevented many smiles - even though it will be time consuming I have to check it out.

[michaelg]

The Schmile, I've decided to omit any horse with a "C", "D" or "T" in its form. It will reduce the amount of selections but I don't think there would be too many of them that are $100-plus in D.S's market. However, one of them ran second today so that's convinced me. Better safe than sorry applies to the method because even one accident causes heart ache which takes some time to recoup.

A good day - from the 25 selection there were 25 Schmiles for a profit of $262.17.

[Mark]

michaelg have you looked at laying the place as well?

[TheSchmile]

The Schmile, I've decided to omit any horse with a "C", "D" or "T" in its form. It will reduce the amount of selections but I don't think there would be too many of them that are $100-plus in D.S's market. However, one of them ran second today so that's convinced me. Better safe than sorry applies to the method because even one accident causes heart ache which takes some time to recoup.

A good day - from the 25 selection there were 25 Schmiles for a profit of $262.17.
Hi Michaelg,

I'd be interested in what percentage of the accidents were T, C or D?

[michaelg]

Hi, Mark.

I Place layed the selections for only one day but I then stopped. I lost interest because Betfair unfortunately fielded (and still does) S.P. for the Place on major tracks only.

The Schmile, I've checked the accidents for "C'' "T" and "D".

There's been from day one a total of 1,802 selections for 34 accidents. Of these there have been 16 that come under the above form scenario - that is almost 50% of all accidents. I don't how many smiles this filter would have eliminated (none of the Maiden races) but I'd be surprised if it did not increase the strike rate and profit.

So from today I'm adding this as the "The Schmile" filter.

[SpeedyBen]

Michael and Schmile
A quick check of yesterday's fields shows that of 299 horses listed in the 3 east coast meetings there were 87 that had a C,D or T. About 29%.
Looks like a good decision to omit them.
Having said that I'm going to leave them in with a reduced liability to see how it affects the DS100 selections. I'll report back in a couple of weeks.
You've all done very well .............

[michaelg]

Thanks, SpeedyBen. I'm looking forward for the results of your research.

I read Don Scott's book how he prices a horse. I'm fairly certain he did not take into account the C, T and D factors unless the horse won recently, yet today's electronic and printed form guides think it's worthwhile to show this information regardless of when the horse won.

If his market still ignores this form factor then its possible his market for his "outsiders" may have a weak point as evidenced by our Lay method that shows 16 accidents from the total of 34.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Moonee Valley
4/2, 9

Walcha
1/2, 13
2/3, 6, 9
5/9, 10
6/5, 11

Pakenham
3/4
4/1
5/3, 11
7/8
9/9, 11

Canberra
6/3, 5

Bunbury
2/6
3/9, 11
4/1, 7
5/6, 9

[Mark]

Hi, Mark.

I Place layed the selections for only one day but I then stopped. I lost interest because Betfair unfortunately fielded (and still does) S.P. for the Place on major tracks only.



A fair enough response michaelg. Despite no SP on most races have you kept records of how many ran a place?

[michaelg]

Unfortunately no. I can check my records but that will take ages, but I'm not too sure if/where Betfair keeps their Place results.

[The Ocho]

Unfortunately no. I can check my records but that will take ages, but I'm not too sure if/where Betfair keeps their Place results.
Most of the time on the country tracks (and sometimes the city ones) there is just no volume for placing any meaningful back or lay place bets.

[SpeedyBen]

Another weak point, which you have overcome, is that the ratings show unraced and untrialled horses at $301 dollars or so instead of putting N/R next to them.

[michaelg]

A bad day - there was one accident from the 26 selections for a loss of $173.40.

[UselessBettor]

michaelg,

I hope you have been recording down all the info in a spreadsheet so you can check things easily.

If so could you provide a breakdown based on field size. I think you might find most of the accidents fall in the fields sized 9 through to 12.

[michaelg]

Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

However I've manually looked at the results from last Saturday.

Regardless of field size there have been 3 accidents for a profit of $453, and with fields of 13-plus there's been a profit of $331 but with no accidents.

It's something I will look at when I get time. Maybe it's worthwhile to increase the size of the standard bet in these larger fields. If there's any selections today in these larger fields I will identify them.

[UselessBettor]

Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

However I've manually looked at the results from last Saturday.

Regardless of field size there have been 3 accidents for a profit of $453, and with fields of 13-plus there's been a profit of $331 but with no accidents.

It's something I will look at when I get time. Maybe it's worthwhile to increase the size of the standard bet in these larger fields. If there's any selections today in these larger fields I will identify them.
thanks michael.

[michaelg]

U.B.

I've checked the records of the accidents.

Unfortunately field size hasn't had any importance. Fields of 13-plus have had their fair share of accidents.

I'll ignore field size and hope the method continues to perform.

Thanks for your positive intentions.

[SpeedyBen]

Hi, U.B.

Not knowing anything about computers I don't have a spreadsheet.

Michael
Betfair has a simple function to download your history into a spreadsheet. All you need is to have Excel on your computer. Most do and you can get some fantastic summaries from it. Happy to lend a hand if you'd like.

[michaelg]

Thanks for your kind offer, Speedy Ben. However one of my fiends will soon be spending a week in my area and I will ask him to sit at my computer and show me what to do.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
8/11

Newcastle
2/3, 14
4/1, 7
5/5, 16, 17
7/10

Nowra
4/10
5/5, 6, 8

Coonabarabran
1/7
2/15
3/5, 10

Gold Coast
3/5, 9
7/12

Toowoomba
2/7

Not many selections today because of the introduction of the recent filter.

[SpeedyBen]

Thanks for your kind offer, Speedy Ben. However one of my fiends will soon be spending a week in my area and I will ask him to sit at my computer and show me what to do.

How many FIENDS do you have Michael?

[michaelg]

None fortunately. However after today's results I'm beginning to think I may have a few unknown ones.

There was one accident from the 21 selections for a loss of $213.78. That's two successive losing days - there's never been three so I suppose I should be hopeful about tomorrow...but I can't.

[SpeedyBen]

Michael
I don't know if you'd call this good news or bad news but Newc 7/10 ( a loss for you ) was rated at $19.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Speedy Ben, you are right about it's D.S. price being $19.

But maybe R&S reduced it's price after the race to reflect it's win.

However no such thing happened to Friday's accident of Pakenham 9/9 because the Worksheet still shows it's D.S. price at $300.

All I can think of is that yesterday I must have identified it's D.S. price before R&S loaded the scratchings which reduced it's price to $19 - this is something I must consider.

So I don't really know if yesterday's accident was a genuine one. And to reduce from a price of $100(?) to $19 does seem extreme and unlikely, but because I listed it here as a selection I have to wear it. However, yesterday's disappointment is now almost non-existent. Fortunately I layed some of the other selections for more than the standard $333 to break-even on the day.

Thanks for checking it out and bringing it to our notice.

[UselessBettor]

I record before scratchings:

meeting	race	horse	TAB	RFS	DLS	YR	BRR	FORM	COND	CONS	BP	JOCK	JC	FR	EM	PER	DIVIDEND
28937	7	TEN TO ZERO	10	5	17	38.5	32	0.5	0	0	-0.5	1.5	0	33.5	4	3.87	26

The Final Rating was 33.5 and the don scott price was $26.

Here are all the horses:

28937	7	MY MAN OF WAR	1	8	29	34.5	34.5	-2	0	0	0	1.5	3	37	0.5	13.94	7
28937	7	BINALONG ROAD	2	0	77	35.5	35.5	0	-6	0	0	2.5	2	34	3.5	5.11	20
28937	7	KIMBERLEY KID	3	5	9	36	33.5	-2	0	-1	0	-0.5	0	30	7.5	0.62	201
28937	7	FOREIGN NEWS	4	5	19	36	35	1	0	-0.5	-2	0	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	BRAGGART	5	5	17	36	33	-2	0	0.5	-1.5	1.5	3	34.5	3	6.2	16
28937	7	CZAR OF YANGERY	6	4	13	38.5	32.5	0.5	0	-1	-1	1.5	0	32.5	5	2.17	51
28937	7	FRANKENFURTER	7	0	167	34	34	0	-6	0	0	0.5	0	28.5	9	0.15	601
28937	7	LE BEAU CHEVAL	8	4	14	36.5	35	-2	0	0.5	0	0	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	LUTHER	9	3	16	33	33	1.5	0	0	-2	-1	0	31.5	6	1.24	81
28937	7	TEN TO ZERO	10	5	17	38.5	32	0.5	0	0	-0.5	1.5	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	REBEL PRINCE	11	1	9	38	21.5	4	0	0	-0.5	0	0	25	12.5	0.15	601
28937	7	RICH N FAMOUS	12	0	105	37	37	0	-6	0	0	1	2	34	3.5	5.11	20
28937	7	SANDPIPERS	13	3	21	33.5	33.5	1.5	0	0	0	0	0	35	2.5	7.75	13
28937	7	HADEED	14	0	131	34.5	34.5	0	-6	2	-1.5	0	0	29	8.5	0.31	301
28937	7	UNO FIVE	15	6	39	35	35	0	-1.5	0	-1	1	3	36.5	1	12.39	8
28937	7	ANATOMIC	16	10	35	38	35.5	0	-1.5	-0.5	0	0	0	33.5	4	3.87	26
28937	7	GRIFT	17	3	14	34.5	34.5	1.5	0	0	0	1.5	0	37.5	0	15.49	6.5
28937	7	MARCH TO VICTORY	18	0	243	36.5	36.5	0	-6	0	0	-0.5	0	30	7.5	0.62	201
28937	7	IN NOMINE PATRI	19	4	15	37	33.5	0.5	0	-0.5	-0.5	0	0	33	4.5	3.1	31

Possibly the selection should have been 11 ?

[michaelg]

Thanks, U.B - whatever happened, the mistake was mine.

I first write down the selections based on the Worksheet market and at the same time I cross-reference them with the Telegraph. Finally, I look at Unitab for the remaining filters and come up with the final selections.

When I looked at Unitab, No.11 was scratched, so I believe I could not have considered it. No.10 matched all the rules, except for the price, so I still can't say with certainty why I made the mistake.

There's been 1,949 selections - I hope I haven't made any more mistakes. My only excuse is that my selection process is done manually.

Sorry anyone, if you layed it.

I just have to be more careful.

[SpeedyBen]

Thanks, Speedy Ben, you are right about it's D.S. price being $19.

But maybe R&S reduced it's price after the race to reflect it's win.

However no such thing happened to Friday's accident of Pakenham 9/9 because the Worksheet still shows it's D.S. price at $300.

All I can think of is that yesterday I must have identified it's D.S. price before R&S loaded the scratchings which reduced it's price to $19 - this is something I must consider.

So I don't really know if yesterday's accident was a genuine one. And to reduce from a price of $100(?) to $19 does seem extreme and unlikely, but because I listed it here as a selection I have to wear it. However, yesterday's disappointment is now almost non-existent. Fortunately I layed some of the other selections for more than the standard $333 to break-even on the day.

Thanks for checking it out and bringing it to our notice.Michael
The reason that I checked your selections is that I worked out my own selections and I did not have a loser on the day so, I assumed that I may have overlooked this one. I go a bit wider than you so when you have a loss I always have it too. I did the first half of each meeting on Fri night and the second half about 3pm eastern on Sat. so that is when i would have done the loser's race.

[michaelg]

Hi, S.B.

Glad you won with your method, especially with a 100% strike rate.

Today's selections:

Sun Coast
7/16

Orange
2/3, 10, 12, 13
4/3, 7, 9
5/15

Ballarat
5/5
7/11

Terang
2/2, 15
3/8, 11

Hobart
7/12
8/14, 15
9/10

Albany
1/9
2/7, 10
3/5
4/9
7/16
8/5, 8

[michaelg]

Fortunately there were no "accidental" accidents today.

From the 25 selections there were 25 smiles for a profit of $127.48.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg,

I'm a little concerned that you pulled the trigger too early on the T,C,D qualifiers being omitted.

You've made handsome profits thus far and my observation was merely based on 1 days results.

I think a comprehensive review of the T,C,D qualifiers is needed. My worry is based on there being so few qualifiers now compared to before the new rule and will it actually make a difference to the bottom line?

[SpeedyBen]

Since Michael stopped laying the T, D selections there have been 59 lays for 3 losses for a loss after comm of 5.99 laying to a liability of $11.
The jury is still out.

[michaelg]

According to my records I began applying the T,D, & C (The Schmile) filters on Friday 8 Feb, but up to that time there was an overall total of 34 accidents for 16 of The Schmile accidents which is a worry.

The filter has been existent for the past three days. During this period there's been 72 selections for 70 smiles for a loss of $86. However, one of the accidents wasn't from a genuine selection. If I had identified this, then the method over the three days would be in profit of $247.

As there is doubt about the efficiency of the filter I now hope to look at the three days from Friday 8 to yesterday and see how the deleted (T, D and C) selections would have fared. When known, I will detail the result here.

[UselessBettor]

As there is doubt about the efficiency of the filter I now hope to look at the three days from Friday 8 to yesterday and see how the deleted (T, D and C) selections would have fared. When known, I will detail the result here.
michael,

You will need at least 1000 (or even better 2000) selections to make any sort of assumptions to these filters for this system. Your strike rate is about 98% so basing filters on a few days results is not the best idea.

[TheSchmile]

According to my records I began applying the T,D, & C (The Schmile) filters on Friday 8 Feb, but up to that time there was an overall total of 34 accidents for 16 of The Schmile accidents which is a worry.

The filter has been existent for the past three days. During this period there's been 72 selections for 70 smiles for a loss of $86. However, one of the accidents wasn't from a genuine selection. If I had identified this, then the method over the three days would be in profit of $247.

As there is doubt about the efficiency of the filter I now hope to look at the three days from Friday 8 to yesterday and see how the deleted (T, D and C) selections would have fared. When known, I will detail the result here.
Hi Michaelg,

I think it might be best to take Vortech's thinking in introducing the top 4 tatts filter where it reduced 50% of accidents for only a 13% reduction in selections.

My question is that the T,C,D filters, while being 16 of the 34 accidents may actually make money laying overall due to being overbet?

[michaelg]

Hi, T.S.

I already omit the top 4 selections in Tatts/Unitab's rankings as recommended by one of the forumites - might even have been Vortech. And I also omit any selection rated between 96 and 100 Unitab points.

I have checked the last three day's results for any selections that had C, T or D in their form.

The results were not conclusive because of the relatively few selections. There were 33 selections for one accident for a break-even result. The accident was Saturday's Newcastle 6/6 whose price was surprisingly at single figures. I would expect at least one of the several filters to have eliminated it but unfortunately this was not so.

I don't have immediate records (would take too long to check them) to see if the filter was profitable over the entire term of the method, but because the method has been doing relatively well without the filter I will not apply it in the future. Hopefully I don't regret it.

[TheSchmile]

I think it's probably best to continue as you have been until the T,C,D filter has more conclusive results as you've been doing admirably up until the last few days.

The law of averages will hopefully swing in your favour this week Michaelg!

Knock 'em outa tha' park!!!

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.S.

Today's selections:

Wagga
3/2, 3, 6
4/10
8/6, 11

Ararat
1/6, 7, 8, 9, 11
3/15
5/11
7/12, 13, 14


Today's T, D, & C selections:

Wagga
8/6, 11

[TheSchmile]

Thanks, T.S.

Today's selections:

Wagga
3/2, 3, 6
4/10
8/6, 11

Ararat
1/6, 7, 8, 9, 11
3/15
5/11
7/12, 13, 14


Today's T, D, & C selections:

Wagga
8/6, 11

Love the separation method!

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 25 selections there were 25 smiles for an overall profit of $92.99.

The T, D and C selections were beaten for a profit of $24.08 (included in the above overall profit).

After three weeks there have been 489 selections for 482 smiles for a profit of $1,732.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Queanbeyan
2/9, 10
4/2

Stony Creek
1/3, 10
2/10, 12
4/1, 5, 14
5/3
8/11, 14, 15

Townsville
3/5, 9


No T, D or C selections today.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were 16 smiles from the 16 selections for a profit of $51.47.

[Rinconpaul]

I'm only new to this blog but couldn't help noticeing everyones preoccupation with Don Scotts ratings and laying outsiders which is mighty dangerous. Don't bother with that, Lay his short priced nuerals ! At the time of writing Townsville still had 2 races left and Qbyn one. D Scott had picked 3 winners from 19 races. Skyform picked 10 winners from 19. So back Skyform favourites and Lay D Scott's. If they were any good he wouldn't be giving the info away, he'd be a billionaire.

[The Ocho]

I'm only new to this blog but couldn't help noticeing everyones preoccupation with Don Scotts ratings and laying outsiders which is mighty dangerous. Don't bother with that, Lay his short priced nuerals ! At the time of writing Townsville still had 2 races left and Qbyn one. D Scott had picked 3 winners from 19 races. Skyform picked 10 winners from 19. So back Skyform favourites and Lay D Scott's. If they were any good he wouldn't be giving the info away, he'd be a billionaire.
Geez it's quite in here.

Has anyone tried Rinconpaul's suggestion?

What constitutes a short priced neural and do you still lay it when it's not the fav?

[michaelg]

Hi, Riconpaul.

Yes, laying outsiders is fraught with danger, however I am laying them on S.P. where the size of the loss is decided, and can be minimal if so wished.

The method is doing quite well. Including the testing period there have been 2,113 selections for 2,075 smiles which is a strike/success rate of 98%. And if the current $333 liability was layed on every selection a profit of $5,429 would have been made after the 2.5 months of its existence.

Don Scott's market is framed a few days (I'm under the impression its three days) before the actual race, so the calculations cannot take into account some important factors, such as the state of the track, the barrier draw, etc.

It's not surprising Skyform has a better record then D.S. with fancied horses. However I don't think we should apply too much importance on only one day's results.

Don Scott passed away several years ago. I think the Racing and Sports website may have applied some adjustments to his original calculations even though some of the prices are quite puzzling. Our lay system isn't based solely on his market, and several filters are in force to identify which selections are to be layed.

After my positive comments hopefully the method will now not crash and burn. Some of us punters can be so superstitious.

[SpeedyBen]

I'm only new to this blog but couldn't help noticeing everyones preoccupation with Don Scotts ratings and laying outsiders which is mighty dangerous. Don't bother with that, Lay his short priced nuerals ! At the time of writing Townsville still had 2 races left and Qbyn one. D Scott had picked 3 winners from 19 races. Skyform picked 10 winners from 19. So back Skyform favourites and Lay D Scott's. If they were any good he wouldn't be giving the info away, he'd be a billionaire.Can you tell me what is dangerous about laying outsiders if you lay to a liability, Rinconpaul

[Rinconpaul]

Further to my observations yesterday I note that the only 3 winners D Scott ratings came up with was when they were in agreeance with Skyform. So simple analogy based on one day, Back any D Scott nueral fav that agrees with Skyform for 3/3 and Lay all the D Scott nueral favourites that aren't in agreeance with Skyform for a perfect 18/18. Use a Recovery staking plan. Can't do a historical as Skyform don't retain their selections that I know of, but I'll start to do a paper trial. It'll probably crash & burn!

[michaelg]

Just a query - Don Scott's market has no relationship on the neurals, they are unrelated.

I assume you mean the D.Scott market as shown on the Worksheet page?

Good luck with your findings - I'm sure there's a lot of interest here.

[Rinconpaul]

I'm sorry I was referring yesterday to the lowest price rated in the PR column on the Neural sheet, apologies to Don Scott.
What I'll do is load the following selections into the bot and run on simulation.
Back for Win: ASCOT R1-6, R3-1, R6-8. CANT R1-7, R2-6, R4-3, R6-3, R7-5. E'Farm R1-7, R4-1,R5-8, R8-9. L'CESTON R1-3, R3-2,R7-2. MORN R2-2, R6-9. M Bridge R2-4, R4-5, R7-4, R8-1. ELLER R1-3, R4-3. RICC R1-1, R4-2, R5-2.

LAY ASCOT R4-3, R5-7, R7-2, R8-10. CANT R3-3,R5-2. E FARM R2-3, R3-5, R6-10, R7-9. L'CESTON R2-13,R4-2,R5-7,R6-1,R8-2. MORN R3-2,R4-2, R5-9, R7-7, R8-4, R9-4, R10-6. M BRIDGE R3-5, R5-3, R6-7. ELLER R2-1, R3-2, R5-4, R6-9. RICC R2-3, R6-16, R7-3, R8-9.

I'll apply a recovery staking plan probably 3

Post results this arv

[The Ocho]

At the sake of repeating myself Rinconpaul: What constitutes a short priced neural and do you still lay it when it's not the fav?

[Vortech]

My data over 18 months has the Neurals P&L outperforming both the Skyform ratings and AAP.

[Rinconpaul]

Short priced neural means just that the horse with the lowest price in Racing & Sports Neural list and yes I'm going to lay it whether it's favourite or not. Being 1st favourite doesn't mean much these days! But as others have suggested it may be a coincidence that none of the shortest, "lowest" priced neurals except three jointly picked by Skyform in the overall best category, won a race. We'll see with my test today.

[SpeedyBen]

Hey Rinconpaul
I make a fair portion of my income from laying longshots. You stated earlier that it is dangerous so I'd like to know what it is that you know on the subject that I don't. I'm beside myself with worry so please let me know asap.
Thanks

Speedy

[The Ocho]

LOL at SB

I think you should start up a new thread for this Rinconpaul as you are nearly doing the compete opposite of michaelg's superb outsiders system.

I will follow it with interest.

[Vortech]

If you get the price right isn't there reason you can make money on both the short priced horses and the longshots?

[michaelg]

Unfortunately I'm having problems getting into the R&S website.

Earlier this a.m. I was able to identify the selections for the first eight races at Mornington only.

They are:

Mornington
3/4
5/2
7/9, 13
8/9, 11

When/if I can access the website I will list the remaining selections here.

[michaelg]

Here are the remaining selections.

Eagle Farm
6/13

Ascot
2/9
8/4, 5, 7

Murray Bridge
2/1, 3, 9, 12
4/7, 11
6/14, 16
7,1, 2, 10
8/12

Launceston
2/7, 11, 14
3/9, 10
5/6, 10
6/11

The D, T, and C selections:

E.Farm
6/13

Murray Bridge
7/1, 2, 10

Launceston
3/9, 10


Murray Bridge 1/1 was a selection but because I didn't have time to list it here I can't claim it's profit of $8.03. Fortunately, I was able to lay it.

[reddevil]

Hi MG

How did you come up with Murray Bridge 1-1, it was first up?

[Rinconpaul]

Sorry mate, I guess when I said it was dangerous, in hindsight all betting is. You can go broke just as quick backing even money Fav's as laying 15/1 shots. It's all about Lady Luck. For instance backing $2 horses for a win says you have a 50% chance of winning, but the maths says you could have a losing run of up to 10 before that next win. Laying a 15/1 shot the percentages say you have 94% chance of winning, but there's no guarantee that your next loss might occur in 10 bets time followed by another 5 bets later. So its all about having a staking plan to recover losses and save you long term. Keep doing what you're doing if it works for you. I just hate laying anything over $6.50, it's just what you feel comfortable with.

[michaelg]

Hi, Reddevil, you are correct - it should not have been a selection because it was resuming from a spell.

Due to being rushed I incorrectly listed the raw selections here before applying the filters - it was shown in the Daily Telegraph as not resuming but I only believe Unitab which unlike the Tele showed it as resuming from a spell. I was lucky it didn't win the race, and it's good to be aware of the interest of some people who check the authenticity of the selections.

I've double-checked the other selections and as far as I can tell they are all genuine selections.

[Rinconpaul]

Mate I hope you didn'y Lay No.1 Prussian Power at Mornington R5. Won @ Lay price of 34:1? If it makes you feel better I just dropped 2 Lays for $166 but am only $20 behind for the day, still a way to go.

[SpeedyBen]

Sorry mate, I guess when I said it was dangerous, in hindsight all betting is. You can go broke just as quick backing even money Fav's as laying 15/1 shots. It's all about Lady Luck. For instance backing $2 horses for a win says you have a 50% chance of winning, but the maths says you could have a losing run of up to 10 before that next win. Laying a 15/1 shot the percentages say you have 94% chance of winning, but there's no guarantee that your next loss might occur in 10 bets time followed by another 5 bets later. So its all about having a staking plan to recover losses and save you long term. Keep doing what you're doing if it works for you. I just hate laying anything over $6.50, it's just what you feel comfortable with.Thanks Rinconpaul
I lay from $21 up to $999. I have won 89 of the last 100 days and average 1.5 losers per 100 lays at about $25. It works for me so i'll keep going.

[SpeedyBen]

Mate I hope you didn'y Lay No.1 Prussian Power at Mornington R5. Won @ Lay price of 34:1? If it makes you feel better I just dropped 2 Lays for $166 but am only $20 behind for the day, still a way to go.In Mornington 5 I laid nos 7 and 13 so no drama for me. Longshots get up occasionally but the whole fabric of racing would need to turn upside down for them to start winning consistently. All studies that I have seen show that if you BACK every even money chance you would lose less than 5c in the dollar but if you back every 33/1 chance ( e.g ) you would lose a far higher % of your turnover. I use the converse of this to selectively lay the longshots for a healthy profit. Laying to a fixed liability takes the stress out of it. Anyway, enough of this.
I was unaware of the Skyratings and I have never paid much attention to neurals so your posts have alerted me to something new for me to study. Thanks for that.

[Rinconpaul]

Mate if you've won 89 Lays out of the last 100 days at say $1 stake = $89 win. So does that also mean you had 11 losing days at average $25 per $1 stake = $275 loss or you had 1.5 losses at $25 = $37.50 loss. It's a bit unclear? Thanks for the insight.

[garyf]

Mate I hope you didn'y Lay No.1 Prussian Power at Mornington R5. Won @ Lay price of 34:1? If it makes you feel better I just dropped 2 Lays for $166 but am only $20 behind for the day, still a way to go.A bettable race for me but i didn't do anything,
Other than record the selections on a spreadsheet.

S.B. these are the ratings you referred to.

Good luck to both for the rest of the day.

http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=49556&raceid=438580&plusday=0

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Rinconpaul]

I've made my target for the day so I am reporting on the results so far on using the shortest price Neural. If you backed the Neural when it agreed with the best overall Skyform horse, you had 17 races for 7 wins = 41%.
If you layed all the other shortest price Neurals you would have had 18 Lay wins and 1 Back win = 95% Lay win strike rate. Almost as good as yesterday(100%) No rules required except if it matches Skyform don't Lay it.
In fairness to R&S if I reversed the scenario and Layed the best overall Skyform horse except when it matched the Neural, you had 24 races for 19 Lay wins = 79% Lay win strike rate.

NEURALS – Multi factor analysis of numerous stats and data to produce an overall mathematical Neural rating.

In fairness only 2 days data.

[michaelg]

A disasterous day - there were two accidents from the 34 selections for a loss of $439.59.

Since increasing the liabilty to $333 (22 Jan) there have been three D, T and C accidents for a loss of $999 yet I doubt the profit for the D, T and C smiles for that period have even come close to half of the $999. So from tomorrow I am re-introducing the filter.

There may now not be many selections but I expect/hope the profit will be better.

[Massive]

...with what felt like a ridiculous number of favourites getting up.

Would love to know how Mark went today.

Regards,

Massive

[The Ocho]

...with what felt like a ridiculous number of favourites getting up.

Would love to know how Mark went today.

Regards,

Massive
21 of 50 got up today (42% SR).
Yesterday there were 9 from 20 (45% SR).

Thanks to sport of kings.

[SpeedyBen]

Mate if you've won 89 LAYS out of the last 100 days at say $1 stake = $89 win. So does that also mean you had 11 losing days at average $25 per $1 stake = $275 loss or you had 1.5 losses at $25 = $37.50 loss. It's a bit unclear? Thanks for the insight.Not sure if you meant to write 89 LAYS above. I actually wrote 89 DAYS out of last 100 DAYS. In that time I layed about 700 horses of which 11 won at an average price of $25. That should be pretty clear, I hope.

[SpeedyBen]

I
If you layed all the other shortest price Neurals you would have had 18 Lay wins and 1 Back win = 95% Lay win strike rate. Almost as good as yesterday(100%) No rules required except if it matches Skyform don't Lay it.
In fairness to R&S if I reversed the scenario and Layed the best overall Skyform horse except when it matched the Neural, you had 24 races for 19 Lay wins = 79% Lay win strike rate.

NEURALS – Multi factor analysis of numerous stats and data to produce an overall mathematical Neural rating.

In fairness only 2 days data.If you had simply coupled up the 2 shortest price neurals in each race today in a $10 quinella you would have won $960.
Out of interest was there a decent profit from the 41% winners?

[SpeedyBen]

Perhaps we should start a neurals thread instead of taking over Michael's DS thread?
Happy to do it if Michael wishes it to be.

[michaelg]

SpeedyBen, no need to start a new (neural) thread. Please keep on posting here.

[Rinconpaul]

When I reported in yesterday it was 5 o'clock and Ascot and Launceston hadn't run. That brought another 5 winners in for the Neural camp which meant 6 Back wins from 28 races after taking out Skyform favs. Not a good enough edge to Lay.

Interesting how in isolated areas, like TAS, No. 1 rated horses produced more winners. Reminds me of why the hi tech syndicates do so well in Hong Kong, only 2 racetracks and a limited number of horses to rate. Food for thought. Maybe if someone had the time, look at Win percentage of No 1 rated horses in Tas compared with the mainland?

[Rinconpaul]

Mate looking at the two horses that brought you undone yesterday, Executive Action, Ascot R8, was only having its 2nd start! Sacred Snaadee had dropped in class and they put a top hoop on board. It was a trainer's setup from the start! Had a kid on board in an Open last start, brought it back this time in a 0-71 Hcap and put a jockey on board with a near 48% strike rate for a place. This is what we're up against! I think your selection method is reasonable but once you get your shortlist have a look for anything sneaky.

[Massive]

Yesterday there were 9 from 20 (45% SR).

True.

I just notice them more when I am going backwards.

Brilliant work on the trading by the way.

Regards,

Massive

[michaelg]

Riconpaul, it was priced at $100 in Don Scott's market. However we applied a filter that no selection can have a T, D or C in its form, but a few days ago I decided to do away with this filter...look what happens!

And the other accident was having it's second career start - this is only the second time this has led to an accident, and I'm sure that including these selections are showing a profit because there have been many of them.

Thanks for your concern and observations.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Gosford
4/16

Seymour
2/6
3/7

Yeppoon
1/3, 7
2/1, 10

Bunbury
3/1, 10
4/8
5/11
8/3

[beton]

Riconpaul
Welcome,
Are you going to post your picks daily as Michealg does? I along with others are interested as to where this goes. Listing your picks allow some of us follow and maybe comment to improve.
Michealg posts his picks everyday and still maintains exclusivity (It must be the Kahunas) with his system. Beton

[Rinconpaul]

Michaelg,
I didn't look at Yepoon but the only horses I was game to select were Bunbury R5/11 & R8/3 ; Seymour R2/6. The rest of your horses are all second starters, that's why there rated so poorly because they've got hardly any previous form for the computer to crunch, doesn't mean the horses don't have ability! Take Seymour R3/7 Gloreuse, last start encountered interference at 1400m & 1000m. Not saying it hasn't got a chance just unlucky first start. Look at Seymour R5/2 Spinning Time. 3 starts back came "0". 2 starts back came "1". It's your system and I wish you every success but I prefer to see at least 3 prev starts.

[Rinconpaul]

Hi Beton,
No mate, I'm not posting any selections, just observing other methods and help if I can. No, I gave up selecting horses years ago. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
No, I just program 2 bots to Lay a specific price range for 1st Fav's and 3rd Fav's come what may, every race. Have a 4x recovery staking plan. Average a $70 -$80 a day profit on $5 bets. Never get rich but its good pocket money.

[The Ocho]

True.

I just notice them more when I am going backwards.

Brilliant work on the trading by the way.

Regards,

Massive
Thanks Massive. Much appreciated. :)

By any chance are you part of the West Stains Massive?

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/KMEP5N19uOulQEPhll6qUQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://l.yimg.com/os/251/2012/05/18/STFC-jpg_162459.jpg

[The Ocho]

Hi Beton,
No mate, I'm not posting any selections, just observing other methods and help if I can. No, I gave up selecting horses years ago. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
No, I just program 2 bots to Lay a specific price range for 1st Fav's and 3rd Fav's come what may, every race. Have a 4x recovery staking plan. Average a $70 -$80 a day profit on $5 bets. Never get rich but its good pocket money.
That's exactly what I'm looking for so that my bots do't go hungry. I don't suppose you can hint at the price ranges or email me at equalthree at yahoo dot com dot au?

I totally understand if you can't.

[SpeedyBen]

Hi Beton,
No mate, I'm not posting any selections, just observing other methods and help if I can. No, I gave up selecting horses years ago. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
No, I just program 2 bots to Lay a specific price range for 1st Fav's and 3rd Fav's come what may, every race. Have a 4x recovery staking plan. Average a $70 -$80 a day profit on $5 bets. Never get rich but its good pocket money.You won't get poor in a hurry either, mate, making 27,000 per annum tax free.

[garyf]

[QUOTE=Rinconpaul]Hi Beton,
. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
QUOTE]

Hi Rinconpaul.

The Skyform Ratings you refer to in previous posts the T.A.B. pay a bucketload,
To everyrace.com for the use of their information.

Even back years ago when these were in a form guide called the Wizard,
This came at a cost, as did the Fax service they also operated way back then.

The ratings and the panels plus the D.F.S. service are only a small part,
Of what they offer to the T.A.B.

If you want everything EG.
Speed indicators
Rated prices.
Prev winning days + jockeys.
Negative or Positive "Form, Fitness, Distance, indicators etc.
You will have to pay a stack more, how do i know this, i have been,
Since 2007>

My advice is this, because it's free which it is not, somebody pays,
In this case the T.A.B. doesn't mean it's no good.

It is how you use that information that determines,
"PROFIT or Loss"

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Rinconpaul]

It might be unlucky for both of us to give my methods, but what I suggest you to do is go to Adrian Massey's website, www.adrianmassey.no-ip.org (http://www.adrianmassey.no-ip.org) .Click on favourite statistics then after you've absorbed that click on custom report. Then start playing around. His database is over 10,000 races, all UK though. There are some sweet spots to be found wherein the return POT actually exceeds 100% for the Backers. Keep playing with it every possible condition is editible. For instance in the last 10 years 1st Fav's with a SP of 5-1 to 15-2 had a win stike rate of 12.9%. What does that tell you if you're laying, it has a 87.1% chance of losing. You then need to apply this research to Betfair stats locally.

[SpeedyBen]

Pity Adrian gave it up as it gets more out of date every day. It used to be right up to date for years.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - from the 11 selections there were 11 smiles for a profit of $76.57.

[Rinconpaul]

Well done Michaelg.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Beton,
No mate, I'm not posting any selections, just observing other methods and help if I can. No, I gave up selecting horses years ago. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
No, I just program 2 bots to Lay a specific price range for 1st Fav's and 3rd Fav's come what may, every race. Have a 4x recovery staking plan. Average a $70 -$80 a day profit on $5 bets. Never get rich but its good pocket money.

Riconpaul, you certainly have a different perspective to some on here and it comes across as a breath of fresh air. We can all do with that from time to time I feel so thank you for this. Can you explain briefly what the '4x' means with regards your recovery method?

Cheers LG

[Rinconpaul]

4x means bot increases stake after loss to recover a quarter of loss over next 4 bets plus original stake each bet. If all goes well at the end of a session you have made the original stake x number of bets. Where it can go pair shaped is if you strike 2 losses in a row and then another loss shortly after. This will test your nerve, best to set a max limit to lose and when triggered the bot stops betting.

[Lord Greystoke]

ta mate.

LG

[SpeedyBen]

Michael
You mentioned in an earlier post about the bank staying below a previous high for an extended period. I liken it to a share investment in that it has many small gains and then a correction to a lower level when it starts it's climb again. I have never owned a share which has outperformed my UK longshot lays, though.

[michaelg]

Yes, SB, it's not a bad investment and buzz-inducer by laying outsiders via S.P. if one's got a good selection method.

Even though my current profit of $1,420 since 22 Jan Feb of laying a $333 liability (about 3 weeks of laying) is not at his highest it would well and truly be had I introduced the C, T, and D filter from day one. So I'm hopeful...

[Feebles]

I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
Cheers

[michaelg]

Thanks, Feebles.

As you know I am hopeless with computers. I identify the selections manually which unfortunately is always open to human error.

Today's selections:

Port Mac
3/9

Goulburn
4/2
7/2, 4, 10

Sale
1/16
3/3
4/11
5/11

Ipswich
3/9
4/6, 10
5/2, 4
6/11

Esperance
1/10, 11, 12
2/7, 10
5/9, 10
7/12

Moonee Valley
7/9

[beton]

I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
Cheers
Hi Feebles.
I would be interested, and I would be more than happy to pass back any findings.
My addy is wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au.
Beton

[Rinconpaul]

Following in the footsteps of Michaelg and SpeedyBen I thought I'd try a twist on MG's system for laying longshots. Test on only 112 races. Rules: Tattsbet rating less than 90. Must have had 2 prev starts. No DWTC. SP > $10.
Based on $100 liability: 93 bets, no losses for a $281 profit after commission.
Encouraging, so I'll keep building a database of a 1000 races and let you know how it goes. For the Backers, of the 16 horses that passed the rules but had a SP less than $10, 6 won = 37.5% Win sr. You're right Michael about omitting DWTC form, this system would have gone down like the Titanic if I included it.

[Lord Greystoke]

Rinconpaul,

But 2 prev starts do you mean career to date or this just run??

Cheers LG

[Rinconpaul]

Career to date
Cheers

[michaelg]

As you say, Rinconpaul, it's encouraging.

With $281 in profit it means you can have two immediate accidents and still be $81 in profit.

Good luck.

[Rinconpaul]

Michaelg I've never used Betdfair SP before. In my calcs for livin' in the 80's I 've worked back from a $100 liability to end up with a stake of say $0.67 for a 150: 1 horse. Does Betfair make you start with the min $5 stake, so in this case the liability would be $745?
Regards
RP

[SpeedyBen]

I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
CheersFeebles
May God give you strength.
You wouldn't happen to have the neurals data as well would you?

[SpeedyBen]

Based on $100 liability: 93 bets, no losses for a $281 profit after commission.
Encouraging, so I'll keep building a database of a 1000 races and let you know how it goes. For the Backers, of the 16 horses that passed the rules but had a SP less than $10, 6 won = 37.5% Win sr. You're right Michael about omitting DWTC form, this system would have gone down like the Titanic if I included it.That is a good strike for the win, R. Do you have the avge price of the winners?

[michaelg]

Rinconpaul, what you have described is laying to a liability, but done in a roundabout way on the Exchange.

However, this can be done on S.P. (much easier and more convenient) where the minimum liability is $30. So if the S.P. price happens to be $30 and the selection is beaten then the profit is approximately $1. But if the selection wins the race then the loss is your nominated liability of $30.

Just divide the S.P. price (not known until a few seconds after the race has started) by your liability bet of $30, or in your case $100. If the selection unfortunately wins the race then the total amount you lose is $100. Even if the S.P. price is $1,000 you only lose $100.

That is why some of us believe laying outsiders on S.P. is less dangerous than doing so on the Exchange where the minimum bet is $5, but the amount lost can be almost mortal.

[Rinconpaul]

Thanks for the rundown, my bot will only allow a min of $5 stake with SP betting according to the manual, although it allows fractional on the exchange, so if I decide to start SP betting I'll just have to place them directly with Betfair.
As for Livin' in the 80's I'm up to 249 theoretical bets for 1 loss and a nett profit of $559 based on a $100 liability. Average stake is $2.73.
I've got my $70 for the day, with my Lay price bracket system, so I'm pulling the pin.
Got greedy yesterday and let it keep running and got slammed with a double whammy lose on each bot. It's always a tug of war with your emotions, switch from real money to simulation after you reach your target and watch it make a $200 more and kick yourself, or let it run and risk getting "T" boned.
Cheers
RP

[Feebles]

Yes I have
Regards
Addy feebles36@yahoo.com.au


Feebles
May God give you strength.
You wouldn't happen to have the neurals data as well would you?

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - from the 25 selections there were 25 smiles for a profit of $101.62.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Rosehill
3/8
4/10

Flemington
1/4

Dombeen
5/15, 17

M'ville
7/12, 14

Kembla
4/10, 11
8/3, 10

Muswellbrook
2/3
3/3, 10
5/11
6/5, 16

Grafton
2/8, 9
3/5
4/4, 10
6/7

Gold Coast
1/2
2/4
4/9

Toowoomba
1/4, 11
5/9

Ascot
6/5, 6, 9

Ballarat
1/7
3/2, 7

[Rinconpaul]

Mate, I'm placing live bets using my Livin' in the 80's system. With my rules I don't place a bet if SP<$10, as I've found that every now and then in historical trials you can get a horse with a 70-80 rating that starts favourite. In other words local knowledge reveals a smokie that they've been handbraking for awhile. This could happen with your system too as they are very silimilar.
When manually placing a SP bet you have control over your liability, you don't have any control over min odds to prevent getting burnt by a smokie. The only way I can control this is to sit at the computer all day and watch for such an occurrence and not place the bet. You obviously place all your bets beforehand in one hit, are you then confident that your system rules will always throw up a longshot and have no fear of it shortening into favouritism?
The other thing I notice is the rules select sometimes 150:1 shots or greater so you're risking $333 to make $2.20. Do you set a max odds, or just work on small bites high turnover?
Cheers
RP

[michaelg]

My rules are set in concrete that leaves no scope for opinion/gut feeling, etc, so that I can identify the selections as early as possible and also lay them at that time.

As for the price of the selection, I have no minimum/maximum and just have to put my confidence/hope in the effectiveness of the filters which seems to be doing the trick with a current 98% strike rate.

[Rinconpaul]

Thanks for the feedback Michael. Maybe there's a bot out there where you can set min Lay odds on SP. My system has thrown up 59 bets today compared to your 35, so fingers crossed it goes all right.
Cheers
RP

[SpeedyBen]

For anyone interested
I've been laying longshot neurals for the last few days with some outstanding results.
The rules I've used are
1. The two longest priced horses in the neurals page for each race
2. Minimum field size 8
3. 21.0 dollars and longer on Betfair 5 seconds before the start.
The results so far are
235 lays
1 loser @ 23.0
Median price of the lays has been 75.0.
There are lots of small wins of course but betting to a liability of 20% of my bank the bank has increased by about 72% in 4 days. I have reset the liability at the start of each day in line with the bank

[Rinconpaul]

Good one SpeedyBen, I'll check it out.
Livin' in the 80's went well today with still a couple at Toowoomba to run, 57 from 57. My trial reached 524 bets 7 losses, $752 nett for $100 liability. Very encouraging, so I'll start day 2 of live betting tomorrow. Just need to find a way to set min odds for SP Lay betting as well as liability. Can do it on the Exchange but I'd feel about as comfortable as a "sardine in a shark tank!"
Cheers
RP

[michaelg]

Good luck, Speedy Ben.

I've never really had any success laying outsiders based on the neurals, so again, good luck.

RP, I hope you've had a good day. Not knowing anything about bots I don't know if you can set a minimum price because on Betfair S.P. I'm under the impression it can only be done with a maximum, not a minimum price.

A good day today - from the 34 selections there were 34 smiles for a profit of $222.44.

[Rinconpaul]

MG
I wanted to ask about Ballarat R3. My system threw up no. 5 rated 86 L3s X00 which won. I deleted it because it was $9.50, you didn't select it was that because it was a D Scott 100:1?
Cheers
RP

[michaelg]

RP, I omitted it because it was credited with 3.0 points in the Form column on the Worksheet.

The original filter was a minimum of 3.5 points but I later noticed that there were quite a few winners in the fancied end of the market with 3.0 points, so I altered the filter to a minimum of 3.0...thankfully.

[macs]

Just need to find a way to set min odds for SP Lay betting as well as liability. Can do it on the Exchange but I'd feel about as comfortable as a "sardine in a shark tank!"
Cheers
RPBetbotpro will do that for you Paul, I use it everyday for laying outsiders at SP and it works well. You'll find it here http://www.betbotpro.com/

[Rinconpaul]

Thanks Macs,
I've got Betbotpro and Betsender. Never been able to get Betbotpro to work unless I disable Norton Anti Virus, which I'm not game to do. I've emailed support about 4 times and they keep saying they're looking into it. Have you been getting emails from them in the last two days asking whether you're having problems with the software?
Cheers
RP

[Rinconpaul]

MG, just going over your calcs and I can't get it to balance. Lets say your bank is $500. 20% of bank = $100 liability. Median price of lays is $75, therefore stake for $100 liability is $1.33 less 6.5% = $1.25 nett. multiply by no. of winning bets 234 = $292.50 less one loss $100 = Nett profit $192.50. That's great, but you said your bank increased by 70% which is $350! Sure its not half that 38.5% or have I missed something. Still a good result though!
Cheers
RP

[Rinconpaul]

Sorry mate, I didn't factor in you increasing liability by daily profit which really boosts profits after only 4 days, excellent. Great staking method.
RP

[michaelg]

Hi, RP. I think you're referring not to me but to SpeedyBen. Unlike me, his selections are based on the neurals and he also employs a staking plan relative to the size of his bank. My bets are a constant $333.

Today's selections are:

Wyong
4/6, 13, 18. (No.6 is the fave in the Daily Telegraph, and ridden by G.Ryan)
5/11
6/6

Bendigo
4/10

Dubbo
1/3, 13, 14
2/19
3/6, 11
7/11

Yarra Valley
4/1, 10
6/13

Kangaroo Island/Kingsgate
7/4

Devenport
1/14, 16
3/6, 8

[The Ocho]

With a bot you could increase your stakes per successful bet rather than just per day. I remember even Maria would have preferred to do that. :)

[Rinconpaul]

MG, thought I'd point out that Wyong 6/6 has form of cDw, thats according to Skyform but doesn't appear at Tatts. I already went through my selections and found quite a few discrepancies between the two sites. I checked the rest of yours, there was only one scratching Yarra 4/1
Cheers and good luck
RP

[michaelg]

Thanks, RP.

I get the info from Tatts. Due to time constraints I don't double-check it from any other source.

Tatts and Betfair still shows Yarra 4/1 as a starter.

It's good that the interest generated has affected some forumites to look at and devise their methods at laying outsiders that currently are successful. It has encouraged me to look at a Lay Outsiders Method based on the neurals, and I expect to list the rules and today's selections in a new thread.

[macs]

No emails from them at all RP and it's been working fine.

[beton]

Thanks Macs,
I've got Betbotpro and Betsender. Never been able to get Betbotpro to work unless I disable Norton Anti Virus, which I'm not game to do. I've emailed support about 4 times and they keep saying they're looking into it. Have you been getting emails from them in the last two days asking whether you're having problems with the software?
Cheers
RP
Rincdonpaul
You can go into norton and get them to allow Betbotpro. Then you can operate norton as normal. Once you do this BBP works properly

[Rinconpaul]

I'll try that. Mate I might be going over old ground here but is there any money to be made Laying the field say > $25 just before the close, I mean every race?
Cheers
RP