Lay Systems

[docdapunta]

Hi all,

This is my first time posting but I have been a long time reader of the site.

I am relatively new the the world of laying horses. My thoughts are to use the KISS approach and keep it simple. With this in mind, I wondered if the following approaches would hold water. I have tested them as win systems on an online system tester and they have shown a loss. I know this does not translate into a successful laying system automatically and was hoping some of the guys on here with a database can help me out.

Under $4

System 1 - TAB 1, No Dist Wins

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Under $10<O:p></O:p>

System 2 - Trainer and Jockey percentage both 10% or lower

System 3 - Not top 3 place percentage ranking and under 49% place percentage

System 4 - API rank Greater than 5<SUP>th</SUP> (5-24)

System 5 - 7YO +

System 6 - First Up – First up record - 0%W 49%P

System 7 - 2nd Up – 2nd up record - 0%W 49%P

I would also be interested to see what filters could be applied to improve them (also being fully aware that a bin with a lock may be needed for some/all of them).

Cheers
Doc

[letsbet]

hey, there's a thread running on here already
just look for picks that are favourites.. then lay

[demodocus]

Let's have a look .......... 2.5 million runs, looking for RF's <1 (in a VERY general sort of way)

RFS........ <3 or >11
Career .....>19 races
Age .........>5
Wt Carr ...<55 kg
DSLS .......>25 d
WSR........ <15%
PSR..........<35%
Sum L4 Places .... >19
Sum L4 BD's ..... >16

Now you might find a horse with all these characteristics once in a lifetime. Alternately you might find a horse like Jester's Girl (1/12/2012 Eagle Farm R5#4) that couldn't win even if it grew a fifth leg ... it didn't care and won anyway at $60, and there are a squillion other examples of "bad luck".

I have played with and researched the maths of "laying" methods for many years and have, sadly, come to the conclusion that if you're not a bookmaker you're going to get shafted by the Jester's Girls of this world.

Cherry picking lays is a dream :-)

[Lord Greystoke]

Morning demodocus.

Very interested in your quest to nail the 'maths of the lay'

Would it make a difference if we..
(a) took each of the factors mentioned by the good docdapunter on their own instead of combining in 1 unattainable jugernaught? Would be keen to see your how they stack up to 2.5m runs

(b) laid to fixed / max liability rather than take the full hit of the semi truck wheels to the head??

Thanks for your input.. it is much appreciated on this.

Cheers LG

[TWOBETS]

Don't want to be a wet towel, but I thought I'd just put my views on this into the arena.

All your scenario requirements are fine in their own right and I'm sure you'd catch lots of successful lays. The thing is all these statistics are known to the punting world in general so will have already been incorporated into the starting price, leaving you with a nil or worse profit on investment.

Demodicus is incorrect in suggesting the cherry picking of lays is a dream however. Jesters Girls are easily overcome with the correct strategies in place.

[Lord Greystoke]

D

Demodicus is incorrect in suggesting the cherry picking of lays is a dream however. Jesters Girls are easily overcome with the correct strategies in place.

Hi TWOBETS.

Interesting point.. typically, what kind of correct strategies are you alluding to?

LG

[TWOBETS]

Typically, my Lord, they are strategies not available at the quick glimpse of an internet page.

letsbet may know more than he's telling.

[docdapunta]

Hi All,

demodocus,

I put the 'price limit' in to hopefully avoid the damage that a result 'out of the box can do'. I'm not sure if I'd have the courage to lay horses at $50 plus. While saying this, max liability may be interesting.

LG,

Thanks for clarifying what I was trying to say. Each of the factors I listed were intended to be run on its own. Maybe as a starting point for a system refined with some filters.

Twobets,

No need to apologise for being a wet towel cause that isn't the case. I'm always interested in feedback and discussion - the reason why I posted. Like LG I too am greatly interested in discussing the correct strategies.

Look forward to hearing more.

Cheers

Doc

[demodocus]

Demodicus is incorrect in suggesting the cherry picking of lays is a dream however. Jesters Girls are easily overcome with the correct strategies in place.Please tell me what this strategy is that "easily" overcomes the day that a horse decides to win regardless of it's history ... if you're talking about a betting strategy then who cares .... if you're talking about a selection strategy then I'm most interested :-)

[TWOBETS]

Please tell me what this strategy is that "easily" overcomes the day that a horse decides to win regardless of it's history ... if you're talking about a betting strategy then who cares ....:-)

My betting strategy is percentage of bank: I have argued a few times about the merits of such a strategy. It is quite simply ... brilliant! This is a strategy that is totally at home with the larger wagers but perhaps does not grow ones bank at optimum levels. Safety is all I care about.

[TWOBETS]

.... if you're talking about a selection strategy then I'm most interested :-)

It's well documented that I'm Scottish.

All I'm saying is I don't think there's much money in using primary data from a web site. I believe such information has already been accounted for in the starting price.

Say you look at the career rating of horses in the ratings section of the excellent R&S site. If you just bet the top rated every time then I guess you'd lose money.If however you applied some kind of personal addendum....maybe .... if any horse is zero rated it's a no bet race, and the gap from top rated to 2nd rated must be more than 5.0. OK now you've got secondary data that only a couple of other dudes might be using and now you have a chance. Percentage of bank wagers will soon tell you if you're on a winning strategy.

This is the sort of thing I do. Nothing fancy, I just tried for freakin' years until I found what works.

[Mark]

Funny old thread this one. The upshot seems to be that I should give away laying and get a job. No, don't think I'll be doing that.

[docdapunta]

Hi Mark,

Definitely not my intention. Just was looking for some help with figures as I do not have access to a database with lay data. I have no intention to stop laying and hope I can pick the brains of you and other successful layers.

[Mark]

Hi doc, not aimed at you but rather 1 or 2 ridiculous replies.

[ianian]

I dont lay or use betfair but have an intrest - But with a lot of reading about laying on this site people say dont lay horses first up -so i know prices are diffrent for the win but how do they go for the win if all backed on betfair because some of the prices would be huge - maybe with an above what evver price -The other thing to beware of is the price you lay at because if you lay $7 - the bookies $5 or less pops you just wont win - and laying big overs the longer ones you properly wont win either - if you search the site and read all of marks stuff and search for laying - This would be a great intro - like all things start small and work up-