No form study required but it's a winner

[Barny]

Back any Leon Corstens runner in the Metro area when the odds are greater than 10 / 1.

Selections 843
Winners 40
POT or ROI or ??? Arrrggghhh, better ask Darkydog2002 what I'm trying to convey here 16.52% ;)
If the longest price winner of $91.50 was taken out it would still be in profit.

I can't say fairer than that. I'm expecting all racing software programs to be deleted, computers thrown out the window, form guides burnt or shredded.

All you dudes laying this, laying that, betting in Europe, up all night, and here's the key to the mint ..... lol ;)

You're most welcome !!!!!!!!

Serious question ..... What was Leon's really good sprinter that went over to the UK and won ?? It won here up to 1,400m and was racing about 4 to 5 years ago ??

[Try Try Again]

Hi Barny,

Starspangledbanner

[Barny]

That's the one Try Try Again. I recall it being entered in a 1,400m race and the HS form guide said that the distance was a concern. It duly bolted in. Surely it wouldn't have been too hard to have this one in your stable, would it. It won quite a few and at good odds too !!!!!!! I hope those that are posting their laying strategies don't take me too seriously about the computers out the window etc, 'coz if they do, then the odds of Leon's horses will be halved and we'll be back in the poorhouse !!!!! When I say "We" that's the Royal "We" .....

[Barny]

Same filters JB Cummings DOWN 38%, D A Hayes DOWN 13%.

[Barny]

Gai Waterhouse
Odds $4 to $10 - this isn't backfitted, it's one of my favourite range of odds as I don't bet on anything under $4.00
Last run was at a Metro Track
This run is at a Metro Tack

and the result is ..... drum roll !!!!!!!

Selections 1,993
Winners 337
A loss of ONLY 0.04% or in dollar terms 0.70 cents

Can that be right ?!?!

Take out her Spring Carnivals and you'd be a millionaire.

[Barny]

R A FREYER POT of 13%

Only one rule = must be run at METRO track. I can hear those computers being ripped from the walls ..... lol

[Try Try Again]

Hi Barny,

In my betting I extend your betting range from >=$3.30 to <$10 as it gives you a good chance of getting some dividends as well as not getting hit by short price losers.

[darkydog2002]

No more form of punting torture could be developed at 5.9 % win average.

[Vortech]

Add the magic 6 filters to these systems and you have a 50% POT!

[darkydog2002]

Hi Vortech,
What are the 6 filters?

Anyone?

Cheers.

[Barny]

Vortech has a good memory ..... ;)

[norisk]

Like everyone involved in this industry, your going to have your good times & your going to have your bad.

I am not bagging the idea, far from it buuuttt there was a time (& will be again just as sure as the sun rises tomorrow) that dear ol' Mr Corstens record read like a horror story.

Good luck with it.

[Barny]

No Risk, I probably wouldn't punt this way, never have, just put it out there for a bit of discussion. Interesting that Gai came up with the ledger square ??!

[Mr. Logic]

No more form of punting torture could be developed at 5.9 % win average.
Disagree. If you're getting a 5.9% strike rate then at $17.00 plus a profit is made. However, a statistically meaningful sample would need to be many, many thousands. But it's a fact that many punters can't handle losing runs. Or bet too big so when that inevitable losing run happens they get wiped out etc. etc. etc. So I like to look at angles that most punters dismiss, including looking for ways to snare those massive winners. One angle that I've done well with is backing selected horses from wide barriers in fields of 15 runners and more in races that are not down the Flemington straight, like Koonoomoo $26.00 on Cup Day. I also like looking for horses at big odds that are first up like Jester's Girl $58.20 at Eagle Farm on Saturday and Reigning $41.00 at Warwick Farm 3 weeks back. I look at what a horse could do first up and only back it at massive odds with small bets so I can handle the runs of outs. So many horses improve from one campaign to another or are capable of an unexpected big first up run. Also because a horse has a poor first up record - no placings from say 5 starts doesn't mean it is no good first up. I look at stuff like the distances of those first up runs, how far beaten, luck in running, the track conditions, the length of the spell and the opposition it was racing against.

[norisk]

Barny yes, interesting, but break-even doesn't pay the bills last time I checked. I've got a couple of draws full of 'ledger squares'.

Following trainers or jockeys can be fun with a bit of luck but I would caution against treating it as anything other than that.

[SpeedyBen]

Gai Waterhouse
Odds $4 to $10 - this isn't backfitted, it's one of my favourite range of odds as I don't bet on anything under $4.00
Last run was at a Metro Track
This run is at a Metro Tack

and the result is ..... drum roll !!!!!!!

Selections 1,993
Winners 337
A loss of ONLY 0.04% or in dollar terms 0.70 cents

Can that be right ?!?!

Take out her Spring Carnivals and you'd be a millionaire.Barny
How would this go if you confined the runners to those ridden by Nash R ?

[TheSchmile]

Hi SpeedyBen,

Here are the complete Gai/Nash stats:
NASH RAWILLER/WATERHOUSE
Runs: 915
Wins: 267
S/R: 29%
Profit: 21.7
P.O.T.: 2.4%

TOMMY BERRY/WATERHOUSE
Runs: 361
Wins: 81
S/R: 22%
Profit: 37.4
P.O.T.: 10.4%

If one did leave out interstate runners and the profits would most certainly improve.

[Barny]

Good to see you're on the job TheSchmile ;) A promotion might be in the offing.

[TheSchmile]

God bless ya' Barny!

Me 14 kids could do with an upgrade from red beans and rice. :D

[SpeedyBen]

Hi SpeedyBen,

Here are the complete Gai/Nash stats:
NASH RAWILLER/WATERHOUSE
Runs: 915
Wins: 267
S/R: 29%
Profit: 21.7
P.O.T.: 2.4%

TOMMY BERRY/WATERHOUSE
Runs: 361
Wins: 81
S/R: 22%
Profit: 37.4
P.O.T.: 10.4%

If one did leave out interstate runners and the profits would most certainly improve.Thanks for that. It's easy to see that the punters like Nash more than Tommy B but Gai rarely, maybe never, has a dud jockey on her horses.