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Barny
3rd December 2012, 06:06 PM
With all computer programs, selections of horse race tips and betting systems, most of them eventually <O:p</O:p

Some just stay profitable longer than others. But, depending on what type of punter you are, you may be interested in having a look at this interesting racing system and having a play with it. <O:p</O:p

You may like to add in some of your own rules and stipulations. <O:p</O:p

The basics of this system are simple. There are only a few people who are associated with the horse in question and they are the ones who really know how well it is going. They know how fit it is going to be on race day, if the horse has been set for a race, right distance, track, jockey and so on.<O:p</O:p

This system is used by a Sydney</ST1:p professional who uses it along with his serious betting. It is one of those systems that may require some patience. It all depends on the number of race horses you are using. <O:p</O:p

The system...<O:p</O:p

1. You only select horses that are resuming or have not won a race this preparation.<O:p</O:p

2. You only select horses that are 3 years or older but no older than 7 years old.<O:p</O:p

3. You only select quality race horses that have had 10 career starts or more and have a winning percentage of 20 percent or more. Try to select horses that are trained in top stables that have a high winning percentage.<O:p</O:p

4. You have to select, say 10 horses that apply to these rules. (the number you select can vary, obviously the more you select, the more bets you will have).<O:p</O:p

5. You have to decide for yourself how much money you want to win on each selection. <O:p</O:p

If you want to win say $100.00 per horse, eg. If a horse you have selected starts at 4/1 and you want to win $100.00, you have to put $25.00 on it to win that amount. If the horse wins, you collect what you wanted to win and you then take the horse off the list. It has done its job.<O:p</O:p

If the horse loses, it now owes you a total of $125.00. ($100.00 you want to win, plus $25.00 you lost on bets) At its next start, it may start at 25/10, you then have to put $50.00 on it to to win your $125.00. If it loses, it now owes you a total of $175.00. So on and so on. You should have the gist of it by now. <O:p</O:p

6. After it wins you may then add another horse to your list so your list number stays constant. I think the secret to this system is to select quality city horses. As the <ST1:p</ST1:ppro says, only a few people know what race they are setting the horse for, how fit it is and when it is likely to win. <O:p</O:p

How many times have you seen quality race horses win at their first or second outing at odds of 10/1 or greater. The reason being is that most times these quality horses come to their peak and often find form quickly and surprise.<O:p</O:p

Most amateur punters are a little in the dark when it comes to some of these things, so if you back it every time to come out in front when it wins, you all end up winners. Sounds good on paper doesn't it?<O:p</O:p

7. If any of your selections are injured, goes for a spell prior to winning or something else you didn't foresee, you may take the horse off the list and select another horse to take its place.<O:p</O:p

Any outstanding lost bets on the horse that is taken from your list are of course placed on to the new horse to carry.<O:p</O:p

<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p

docdapunta
5th December 2012, 07:00 AM
Hi Barny,

Here is my contribution to this. I will start my own stable and follow them, trying to win $10 for each horse. The rules to become a horse to follow are:-
- Age - 3-6
- First Up (Resuming at Metro Meeting)
- Win% - 26%+
- Place% - 50%+
- Trainer Rating (Racing and Sports) - 3+
- Must have won in the last 365 Days

I will follow each horse for five runs, if they win in any of their first 5 runs, they will be removed from the list. If they do not win, all money that horse owes me will be divided by 10, and added to the next 10 horses' target.

(Example - if you outlay $65 over 5 runs for a horse that does not win, the target for the next 10 Horses to Follow will be $16.50)

Horses 2 Follow

BR 5 no.1 Gran Torino (Tagret $10)
TR 4 no.5 Anelene (Target $10)

Cheers

Doc

TheSchmile
5th December 2012, 07:11 AM
Go get 'em Doc!

I wish you the best of luck!!

Lord Greystoke
5th December 2012, 07:22 AM
Whats UP doc?

Your bank hopefully! Best of luck with this - will be interesting to see if / when the good doc's stable play converts into a luverley juberley pay day!

LG

evajb001
5th December 2012, 10:27 AM
Very interested in this. Also got some idea's spinning in my head that i'll likely be posting about later today in regards to a new set of my ratings and also lay betting.

On a side note if anyone can answer, i noticed the doc mentioned trainer rating on R&S - does anyone know how to get the table with trainer and jockey ratings or the table with recent prize money to download into excel with a query. Its basically the most significant thing my ratings are missing and would fit perfectly with my spreadsheet if I could get it working. I've tried a number of different ways to get it to happen with no success. If anyone has an idea or knows how to get it done could you either reply in here asking for my email address or reply in my '75% ratings' thread.

Thanks :)

Shaun
5th December 2012, 12:06 PM
All sounds good except forget the staking part this will kill you in the end, you are better off using a percentage of bank for each set of selections.

As a new horse is added work out what percentage of the bank you will invest in this horse.

evajb001
5th December 2012, 12:09 PM
Shaun, you got any ideas in regards the R&S data?

evajb001
5th December 2012, 02:47 PM
Doesn't matter, with some fiddling today in excel i managed to be able to scrape the table I wanted, only to find out that you can't look at historical meetings on R&S anyway.

May still use it as i'm certain trainer/jockey makes a difference to ratings, just means i can't incorporate it into any backtesting.

Anyhow apologies for getting off topic, again if you wish to discuss further you can reply in my other thread Shaun as would appreciate any of your input/ideas.

Shaun
5th December 2012, 02:54 PM
Is this the page you are talking about. http://www.racingandsports.com.au/form-guide/neural.asp?meetingid=27664

docdapunta
5th December 2012, 05:05 PM
Well........

Gran Torino - $3.9 bet @ $3.6 (np)
Anelene - no bet (late scratching)

As long as the search party are successful in locating Gran Torino before its next start, it remains on the list as does Anelene.

In honor of the less than impressive start I will rename my horses to follow. They will now fall under the banner of Doc's Donkeys.

Cheers
Doc

The Ocho
5th December 2012, 05:10 PM
In honor of the less than impressive start I will rename my horses to follow. They will now fall under the banner of Doc's Donkeys.

Careful Doc, you may make an ass out of yourself. :D

Seriously though, good luck with it. :)

docdapunta
5th December 2012, 05:14 PM
Hall Of Fame
Nil

Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino ($13.9)
Anelene ($10)

TheSchmile
5th December 2012, 05:39 PM
Gran Torino loves the AW track.

docdapunta
5th December 2012, 07:35 PM
The rules to become a horse to follow are:-
- Age - 3-6
- First Up (Resuming at Metro Meeting)
- Win% - 26%+
- Place% - 50%+
- Trainer Rating (Racing and Sports) - 3+
- Must have won in the last 365 Days


I forgot to mention must have had at least 10 Career Starts.

Barny
5th December 2012, 07:41 PM
This is really good stuff doc. PPM used to show a profit with their horses to follow although darkydog2002 disputed their legitimacy. The HS used to have Spring Carnival "stable" but it very rarely did any good. I'm a huge fan of the "concept" of following a horse. I have one David Hayes' horses picked out for when it returns ..... Storm Shield.

docdapunta
5th December 2012, 08:55 PM
Nice to hear that Barny. Was a little worried I had hijacked your post.

Below are the initial contenders for the weekend (just in case you want to launch an assault on Early Bird prices) :D

Art Thou Ready SR 5 no.1 (Fri)
Carmine King SR 7 no.4 (Fri)
Tariana MR 4 no.1
Signified BR 6 no.2
Racing Heart SR 6 no.14
Madam Nash SR 7 no.1
Number One Gun SR 8 no.10

I will post after final scratchings on Friday and Saturday.

docdapunta
7th December 2012, 12:46 PM
SR 5 no 1 - Art Thou Ready (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6
SR 7 no 4 - Carmine King (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6

Cheers

Doc

Barny
7th December 2012, 01:25 PM
Please keep it going docdapunta, this will be a great lesson and done in real time. My money is on you showing a profit, but not until you're into starts 2, 3 and further becasue we need some ordinary form, increase in class, to increase the divs. I suspect early on you'll get winners but the divs will be disappointing.

doc's donkey's eh ??

Donkey walks into a bar and the barman says "Why the long face ??"

docdapunta
7th December 2012, 01:58 PM
If that's the case, I'd love to hear suggestions for a staking plan we could use. With the plan of chasing a set amount per horse, larger dividends will just reduce the outlay. Plenty of time to discuss this as we come up with some results to look at.....

Cheers

Doc

evajb001
7th December 2012, 03:49 PM
I have no idea if this would work but what if you did loss sharing? For example you got 4 horses your initially following call them Apple, Banana, Lemon and Melon. Apple is the first to run at $4 odds so you have to bet $3.33 to get your $10 profit, unfortunately Apple loses so you loss share:

The profit required on your next bets for all horses would be:

Apple: $10.83
Banana: $10.83
Lemon: $10.83
Melon: $10.83

(The $0.83 is from $3.33 / 4)

Next to run is Banana, follow the same process and so on. Like i've said I have no idea if this is actually viable or would work but my logical thinking is that even if 1 horse just doesn't seem to perform at all and you don't get that win your chasing, then at least you've shared the losses across other horses that you'd hope eventually will lead to that win to offset the losses.

Has anyone trialed something similar to this previously? purely just an idea i've came up with sitting here at the moment.

Barny
7th December 2012, 03:53 PM
evajb001, wow ! I don't ever recall thinking along those lines .... thank you !

docdapunta
7th December 2012, 03:59 PM
I have read quite a lot about staking and a common theme seems to be, chasing loses, no matter how you do it, is a downhill ride to the poorhouse. Is there anyone who successfully runs a loss chase staking plan?

Vortech
7th December 2012, 04:36 PM
If you know your strike rate you can calculate your run of outs long term.

You can set up your bank and stake to a percentage of starting bank.

If a system has a strike rate higher than 50% I reduce the stake percentage. More chance winning than losing so bet higher.

In theory if you have a big enough bank any staking plan can work even losing at level stakes.

evajb001
7th December 2012, 04:37 PM
Your welcome Barney, like I said just an idea based on no evidence at all but logically to me it would seem your limiting losses while retaining the same level of profits as you would have had anyway.

i.e. In my example, if Banana was to win when its race was run, not only have you obtained the $10 profit you were aiming for anyway, but you've already recouped some of Apples losses.

docdapunta - I've read a lot that basically says the same thing, any chase system is bound for 'eventual' failure. However this depends a lot on the size of your bankroll and your unit size. For example a betting system may 'eventually' hit that run of losses that destroys your bankroll on a chase system but with extremely conservative staking that run of losses could be a il nino 1 in 100 years thing that wont happen while your betting the system.

I personally don't think chase systems are a great idea but believe they can be used profitably if the right system presents itself.

Barny
7th December 2012, 04:46 PM
In theory if you have a big enough bank any staking plan can work even losing at level stakes.Yeah, and in theory if I miss 3 two footers in a row then I'm due to get the next one. BTW, I played off a handicap of four more than the lowest marker in Vic at that time, played off that mark for yonks and used wooden clubs off the tee and played at a time when hitting par 5's in two was reserved for the long hitters of the game. Your handicap of 1 is really good Vortech, that's a really mean feat, but the game of golf has been plundered by the improved balls, clubs, and 'that' putter. Adam Scott would need to win a major in the next couple of years, prior to 2016, otherwise it's goodnight for him.

darkydog2002
7th December 2012, 04:51 PM
Doc,
This might help.

The correct way for Target betting is

Exp Win % X Exp Win Dividend X .08

i.e 25 X $3.25 X 0.8 = 6.5 Max divisor

Minimum Divisor (in this example would be 3.25)

The Minimum Divisor is always the av price of your winners.

Reframe your divisors every 100 bets.

docdapunta
7th December 2012, 04:57 PM
Thanks for the responses.

Now all we need to do is hope some of these horses do the right thing eventually. ;)

Think this discussion is heading in a really positive direction.

Barny
7th December 2012, 04:58 PM
And doc, it might be a better use of your time to look at your selection method rather than chasing your losses. Chasing your losses is a Lazy Man's Modus Operandi for making a quid from thoroughbred racing.

evajb001
7th December 2012, 05:06 PM
Doc,
This might help.

The correct way for Target betting is

Exp Win % X Exp Win Dividend X .08

i.e 25 X $3.25 X 0.8 = 6.5 Max divisor

Minimum Divisor (in this example would be 3.25)

The Minimum Divisor is always the av price of your winners.

Reframe your divisors every 100 bets.

darky, can you explain in more detail with possibly an example for me, maybe i've already got my mind on a cold beer and thats why i'm struggling to follow.

Cheers

The Ocho
7th December 2012, 07:43 PM
I have no idea if this would work but what if you did loss sharing? For example you got 4 horses your initially following call them Apple, Banana, Lemon and Melon. Apple is the first to run at $4 odds so you have to bet $3.33 to get your $10 profit, unfortunately Apple loses so you loss share:

The profit required on your next bets for all horses would be:

Apple: $10.83
Banana: $10.83
Lemon: $10.83
Melon: $10.83

(The $0.83 is from $3.33 / 4)

Next to run is Banana, follow the same process and so on. Like i've said I have no idea if this is actually viable or would work but my logical thinking is that even if 1 horse just doesn't seem to perform at all and you don't get that win your chasing, then at least you've shared the losses across other horses that you'd hope eventually will lead to that win to offset the losses.

Has anyone trialed something similar to this previously? purely just an idea i've came up with sitting here at the moment.
I like them apples. That's a good use of your melon.

Is that enough fruity talk?

Seriously, that's a good suggestion.

Shaun
7th December 2012, 09:01 PM
Spreading the loss looks like an interesting idea, but i still don't like trying to make a set profit.

Using this type of selection process and following runners you are going to back your fair share of 20-1 and above runners and a number of these will win and since this whole idea is based around finding that winning run i would hate to have only a small portion of money on it when it wins.

You are better off working out what funds you need to follow a particular horse, this will then decide the bank you need to follow your stable runners and as money becomes available via winning selections you can add more runners or increase the stakes on new runners added to the stable.

If you wanted to employ an idea like the loss sharing you could add each weeks new selections to a new pool, week 1 might have 4 runners week 2 might have 7 runners and so on.

docdapunta
8th December 2012, 08:27 AM
Friday Night Results
SR 5 no 1 - Art Thou Ready (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6 – np – Target $12
SR 7 no 4 - Carmine King (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6 – 2<SUP>nd</SUP> – Target $12
Saturday
MR 4 no 1 - Tariana (Target $10) $1.9 Bet @ $6.5
BR 6 no 2 - Signified (Target $10) $1.4 Bet @ $8.5
SR 6 no 14 - Racing Heart (Target $10) $0.5 Bet @ $101 (Min bet allowable)
SR 7 no 1 - Madam Nash (Target $10) $1 Bet @ $12
SR 8 no 10 - Number One Gun (Target $10) $1.7 Bet @ $7

Cheers

Doc

evajb001
8th December 2012, 10:57 AM
Spreading the loss looks like an interesting idea, but i still don't like trying to make a set profit.

Using this type of selection process and following runners you are going to back your fair share of 20-1 and above runners and a number of these will win and since this whole idea is based around finding that winning run i would hate to have only a small portion of money on it when it wins.

You are better off working out what funds you need to follow a particular horse, this will then decide the bank you need to follow your stable runners and as money becomes available via winning selections you can add more runners or increase the stakes on new runners added to the stable.

If you wanted to employ an idea like the loss sharing you could add each weeks new selections to a new pool, week 1 might have 4 runners week 2 might have 7 runners and so on.

Agree that if you hit a $20-1 winner your not gonna be happy your only winning $10, but on the flipside of that because your betting to win a set amount your limiting your risk. Your solely looking at the winning side of that bet, but you have to remember $20 winners are relatively unlikely to hit at least consistently, so you want to limit your risk. By having a set profit your betting a small amount on those $20 horses and a larger amount on the $5 horses who are meant to have a better chance of winning.

I honestly think thats the hardest part of this game sometimes and it's something I've learnt a lot from share trading. It's not always about how much you win, obviously this is where you get your profit, but limiting your losses as well is a big part of money management.

Obviously you know all of this Shaun, but your post just kinda reminded me its always a good idea to weigh up the amount your risking equally with what your potentially winnings will be.

I'm liking the loss sharing idea, i'd honestly give it a crack with loss sharing if I had the time and ability to track it. Guess i'd have to black book each selection so I could follow it until it wins.

Shaun
8th December 2012, 01:11 PM
If you are using a stable black book is the only way to go as you don't want to miss any runners.

I find the one from racenet a good service and provides an option to put in some notes so you could use it to keep track of wages or prices.

docdapunta
8th December 2012, 01:41 PM
I agree Shaun.

I use the Racenet Blackbook all the time.

Notes make it a lot easier to sort the reasons why tou have blackbooked them.

docdapunta
8th December 2012, 06:11 PM
Saturday Results
MR 4 no 1 - Tariana - np
BR 6 no 2 - Signified - np
SR 6 no 14 - Racing Heart - np
SR 7 no 1 - Madam Nash - np
SR 8 no 10 - Number One Gun - np
<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p
Hall Of Fame
Nil
Hall of Shame
Nil

docdapunta
8th December 2012, 06:17 PM
Current Horses

Gran Torino ($13.9)

Anelene ($10)

Art Thou Ready ($12)

Carmine King ($12)

Tariana ($11.9)

Signified ($11.4)

Racing Heart ($10.5)

Madam Nash ($11)

Number One Gun ($11.7)

Progress

Bets – 8

Wins – 0

Outlay - $14.4

Return - $0

There is one Metro meeting tomorrow in Tasmania but no qualifiers. I will update prior to Wednesday or if a H2F is nominated earlier.

Cheers

Doc

Barny
11th December 2012, 03:15 PM
Keep it going doc.

One thing that happens on this forum, and is TYPICAL if punters in general, is that they give up if they're not handed everything right into their lap. Good threads go eerily quiet. They'll pay for a system and back it and give it up quickly only to proceed to another method of selecting horses, then they'll find their old system came good, so back they'll go and it starts losing again.

Patience ..... Logic ..... And A Little Tweaking will win the day !!!

Following a horse is logical .....

FOR) - It embraces the randomness of racing which kills most punters. AGAINST) - Finding the right method to choose a horse to follow is the tough bit.

Barny
11th December 2012, 03:40 PM
Just a suggestion, why don't you cut your list off at say 10 horses to follow, otherwise you're going to have a list as long as your arm. I've got bundles of cash at the ready 'coz I like your selection method.

docdapunta
13th December 2012, 06:42 PM
Hi Barny,

I have had computer/password issues so have been unable to log on for a little while. There were no qualifiers on Wednesday and none of the stable have had another run.

I'm happy ATM to keep going with a larger list. As this progresses, I'm hoping we might find a few little areas/filters we can use to tighten things up.

I will review this if our list gets out of hand.

The first change I have been considering is if we are hoping the value will come a few runs into the horses prep, we might nominate them as horses to follow but only back them on runs 3 to 6 of a prep......... Food for thought any way....

I will have the intitial contenders for the wwekend up later tonight.

Cheers

Doc

docdapunta
13th December 2012, 07:30 PM
Saturday
MR 5 no 7 Hurdy Gurdy Man 1 (Darren Weir)
no 8 Dayita 13 (Peter Moody)

Sunday
TR 6 no 7 The Cleaner 1 (Mick Burles)

Will finalise the bets on Saturday and Sunday morning.

Cheers

Doc

docdapunta
15th December 2012, 01:50 PM
MR 5 no 7 Hurdy Gurdy Man (Target $10) $0.5 Bet @ $41
no 8 Dayita (Target $10) $1.9 Bet @ $6.5

TheSchmile
16th December 2012, 10:28 AM
Hi Docdapunta,

Hurdy Gurdy Man was a lovely return yesterday, his closing sectionals were right up there with the winners. I'd suggest waiting for 1800m+ with this bloke.

Dayita might prefer a little sting out of the ground? All her wins have been on dead tracks or worse.

Best of luck today with The Cleaner.

docdapunta
16th December 2012, 10:35 AM
TR 6 no 7 The Cleaner (Target $10) $3 Bet @ $4.4

docdapunta
16th December 2012, 10:55 AM
Hi Schmile,

As this proceeds and we start to get some concrete results we can work with, it will be interesting to see if adding some basic form study assists with results, such as form in going, distance, etc.

For example, the 3 selections this week have the following first up records...
HGM - 0-1-2 (0%,50%)
DAY - 1-1-3 (33%,66%)
TC - 1-0-3 (33%,33%)

On this you'd probably only have backed Dayita.

I was also really impressed with Hurdy Gurdy Man's run. I hope not many others saw it for next start ;) (if only it was as simple as that)

Cheers

Doc

docdapunta
16th December 2012, 03:31 PM
Results
MR 5 no 7 Hurdy Gurdy Man - np
MR 6 no 8 Dayita - np
TR 6 no 7 The Cleaner - Won

Hall Of Fame
The Cleaner 10.2

Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino -3.9
Anelene
Art Thou Ready -2
Carmine King -2
Tariana -1.9
Signified -1.4
Racing Heart -0.5
Madam Nash -1
Number One Gun -1.7
Hurdy Gurdy Man -0.5
Dayita -1.9

Progress
Bets – 10
Wins – 1
Outlay - $19.8
Return - $10.2

Cheers

Doc

Try Try Again
16th December 2012, 06:35 PM
Hi docdapunta,

Good luck with this thread.

Interestingly, the trainer gave Hurdy Gurdy Man a good wrap yesterday although he didn't give it a winning chance he did think it would run well.

As they say - One for the Black Bookers!

The other interesting comment yesterday was from Peter Moody on Lampedusa which won race 8 at Flemington. He has a very good opinion of the horse and will now set it for the Stradbroke!

docdapunta
17th December 2012, 05:58 AM
Morning All,

I am away for the next set of Metro meetings on Wednesday. My next post will be Thursday night when I will highlight any of the horses we 'missed' on Wednesday and list the initial contenders for the Weekend meetings.

Cheers

Doc

Lord Greystoke
17th December 2012, 07:33 AM
Thanks Doc.
Will chat up your nurse here whilst you are off doing house visits.

LG

docdapunta
20th December 2012, 05:38 PM
Hi All,

There were 2 runners on Wednesday - 1 was a new horse to follow and the other was having it's second start for us. The results are below. There is no runner tonight in Melbourne. I will update the runners for the weekend later tonight.

Results
NR 5 no 2 Carmine King - (Target $12) - Bet $4.5 @ $3.7 - 3rd
BR 5 no 7 Shamrock Slipper - (Target $10) - Bet $1.3 @ $9 - 2nd

Hall Of Fame
The Cleaner 10 10.2 10.2


Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino 10 -3.9
Anelene 10
Art Thou Ready 10 -2
Carmine King 10 -2 -4.5
Tariana 10 -1.9
Signified 10 -1.4
Racing Heart 10 -0.5
Madam Nash 10 -1
Number One Gun 10 -1.7
Hurdy Gurdy Man 10 -0.5
Dayita 10 -1.9
Shamrock Slipper 10 -1.3


Progress
Bets – 12
Wins – 1
Outlay - $25.6
Return - $10.2

docdapunta
20th December 2012, 06:22 PM
Friday December 21
MASHKOOR CANTERBURY R3 No.4 (1100m) (First Run)

Saturday December 22
TEXAN ASCOT R4 No.2 (1000m) (First Run)
SIGNIFIED DOOMBEN R6 No.6 (1110m) (2nd Run)
BARON DOURO FLEMINGTON R8 No.1 (1200m) (First Run)
MADAM NASH WARWICK FARM R2 No.1 (1400m) (2nd Run)
ART THOU READY WARWICK FARM R4 No.8 (1300m) (2nd Run)
RACING HEART WARWICK FARM R6 No.16 (1600m) (2nd Run)

Vortech
20th December 2012, 08:47 PM
Just another thought in relaton to this horse following.

Particular horses have a winning distance. Without going into the debate on this as it can be quite difficult - try to identify which distance the horse is going to win.

If the distance is between 1000 to 1400m They can peak from 1st up through to 4th

Then you have 1400m to 1800m. Usually they won't win in the 1st up so maybe start following from 2rd run to 5th run.

Generally stayers over 1800m Only peak between 3rd to 6th run in.


This can be debated and played around with as depending on the grade of the runs etc..

darkydog2002
21st December 2012, 09:36 AM
Hi Vortech,
One could cut the handicapping time by concentrating on the Market order (say Top 5 or 6 in the betting order.)

Cheers and Merry Xmas.

Vortech
21st December 2012, 09:44 AM
I do remember a stat

Days after a spell of 90 days+ (1st up record)

Races up to 1300m - approx 15% Win
Races over 1300m - approx 3% Win

Don't have my database with me so could need verification.
Horses don't usually win the longer distance races 1st up vs the shorter distances.

The best strike rate I believe was

1000m - 1600m = 3rd up horses around 21%
1600 m to 1800m = 5th up horses around 17%
1800 m + 6th up horses with around 18%.

If someone has time they could calculate this with detail.
Barny probably has all the figures

Cheers

evajb001
21st December 2012, 10:06 AM
Earlier this week I started tracking a system similar to the one described in here along with using my ratings for a backing method and laying method.

As I get more results i'll start posting some details but so far all 3 seem to be doing ok, the lay method and what i've dubbed the 'improver' method (similar to this thread) are doing the best so far but have limited data.

I'll start a new thread with my own details at an appropriate time but i'm definitely following this thread with interest.

docdapunta
23rd December 2012, 09:11 PM
Results
Friday December 21
MASHKOOR CANTERBURY R3 No.4 - Bet 4.6 @ 3.2 - 3rd

Saturday December 22
TEXAN ASCOT R4 No.2 - Bet 6.3 @ 2.6 - 2nd
SIGNIFIED DOOMBEN R6 No.6 - Bet 0.8 @ 16 - np
BARON DOURO FLEMINGTON R8 No.1 - Bet 1.6 @ 7.5 - np
MADAM NASH WARWICK FARM R2 No.1 - Bet 0.5 @ 61- np
ART THOU READY WARWICK FARM R4 No.8 - Bet 0.6 @ 21- np
RACING HEART WARWICK FARM R6 No.16 - Bet 0.5 @ 151- np



Hall Of Fame
The Cleaner 10/10.2/10.2


Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino 10/-3.9 (13.9)
Anelene 10 (10)
Art Thou Ready 10/-2/-0.6 (12.6)
Carmine King 10/-2/-4.5 (16.5)
Tariana 10/-1.9 (11.9)
Signified 10/-1.4/-0.8 (12.2)
Racing Heart 10/-0.5/-0.5 (11)
Madam Nash 10/-1/-0.5 (11.5)
Number One Gun 10/-1.7 (11.7)
Hurdy Gurdy Man 10/-0.5 (10.5)
Dayita 10/-1.9 (11.9)
Shamrock Slipper 10/-1.3 (11.3)
Mashkoor 10/-4.6 (14.6)
Texan 10/-6.3 (16.3)
Baron Douro 10/-1.6 (11.6)

I will post the boxing day update tomorrow night

docdapunta
26th December 2012, 08:17 AM
December 26
TARIANA CAULFIELD R5 No.3 (1200m) - Bet $5.4 @ $3.2
ROSES IN THE GLEN CAULFIELD R6 No.13 (1200m) - Bet $1.6 @ $7.5
MY EX MATE MORPHETTVILLE R6 No.6 (1100m) - (No Price Up)
FLYING BAY ROSEHILL R5 No.2 (1200m) - Bet $1.3 @ $9

Cheers

Doc

docdapunta
26th December 2012, 09:53 PM
Results
Wednesday December 26
TARIANA CAULFIELD R5 No.3 (1200m) - Bet $5.4 @ $3.2 - WON
ROSES IN THE GLEN CAULFIELD R6 No.13 (1200m) - Bet $1.6 @ $7.5 - np
MY EX MATE MORPHETTVILLE R6 No.6 (1100m) - Bet $0.5 @ $21 - np
FLYING BAY ROSEHILL R5 No.2 (1200m) - Bet $1.3 @ $9 - np


Hall Of Fame
The Cleaner 10/10.2/(10.2)
Tariana 10/-1.9/13.5/(11.6)


Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino 10/-3.9 (13.9)
Anelene 10 (10)
Art Thou Ready 10/-2/-0.6 (12.6)
Carmine King 10/-2/-4.5 (16.5)
Signified 10/-1.4/-0.8 (12.2)
Racing Heart 10/-0.5/-0.5 (11)
Madam Nash 10/-1/-0.5 (11.5)
Number One Gun 10/-1.7 (11.7)
Hurdy Gurdy Man 10/-0.5 (10.5)
Dayita 10/-1.9 (11.9)
Shamrock Slipper 10/-1.3 (11.3)
Mashkoor 10/-4.6 (14.6)
Texan 10/-6.3 (16.3)
Baron Douro 10/-1.6 (11.6)
Roses In The Glen 10/-1.6 (11.6)
My Ex Mate 10/-0.5 (10.5)
Flying Bay 10/-1.3 (11.3)

Cheers

Doc

Barny
26th December 2012, 09:58 PM
keep it going doc, brill ;)