Something Interesting? - TAB No.1

[michaelg]

Out of interest I looked at the relationship of TAB No.1 with Unitab's ratings.

If No.1 had been backed each-way from Sat 1 Dec with only three simple conditions:

1) Must be sole Unitab 100-pointer,
2) Must have placed at last start,
3) Not resuming from a spell,

then the results using Unitab divvies according to my reckoning are 25 selections for:

11 winners for a profit of $6.90,
20 placegetters for a profit of $4.90.

Admittedly this is a very minute example but it might be something to pique one's interest.

And if the following had been layed:

1) TAB no. 1 that has 93 or less Unitab points,
2) Not won last start, not resuming at last or previous start,

then, according to my reckoning there were 38 smiles for one accident of $1.90. However if I applied a filter which I use for my laying outsiders method (minimum of 9 runners) then there would have been 23 smiles from 23 selections.

[michaelg]

Out of curiousity I've identified today's selections.

No selections to bet, but there are a few selections to lay. They are:

Narromine
3/1
5/1

Terang
3/1
7/1
8/1

Armidale
1/1


I'm laying them S.P. for a $33 liability. Four of the six selections are at single prices in the Telegraph market.

[aussielongboat]

Out of interest I looked at the relationship of TAB No.1 with Unitab's ratings.

If No.1 had been backed each-way from Sat 1 Dec with only three simple conditions:

1) Must be sole Unitab 100-pointer,
2) Must have placed at last start,
3) Not resuming from a spell,

then the results using Unitab divvies according to my reckoning are 25 selections for:

11 winners for a profit of $6.90,
20 placegetters for a profit of $4.90.



Admittedly this is a very minute example but it might be something to pique one's interest.

And if the following had been layed:

1) TAB no. 1 that has 93 or less Unitab points,
2) Not won last start, not resuming at last or previous start,

then, according to my reckoning there were 38 smiles for one accident of $1.90. However if I applied a filter which I use for my laying outsiders method (minimum of 9 runners) then there would have been 23 smiles from 23 selections.

first part: betting
dec 2012 POT Plus 3% SR 35% 34 selctions
oct 2012 POT Minus 38% SR 24%
nov 2012 POT minus 8% SR 32%
sept 2012 POT minus 19% SR 34% win avg price 2.38 on tatts 106 selections

don't want to go back any further - that's enough pain.
No surprises really with the POT result - too obvious and too easy - thus overbet.

laying:
october - minus 50%
nov 2012 - minus 15%
sept 2012 - minus 14%

[michaelg]

Hi, Aussielongboat.

Thanks for the results which are disappointing but not really unexpected especially on betting.

However, are the Lay results based on the Exchange or on S.P? - an accident on a huge outsider on the Exchange could kill the method but not necessarily on S.P.

[aussielongboat]

Hi, Aussielongboat.

Thanks for the results which are disappointing but not really unexpected especially on betting.

However, are the Lay results based on the Exchange or on S.P? - an accident on a huge outsider on the Exchange could kill the method but not necessarily on S.P.

all prices on tatts divies

[michaelg]

Thanks, I think the Lay results would be even worse if layed on the Exchange because of the generally higher prices.

However, I'll soldier on laying on S.P. and see how it goes.

[michaelg]

The six selections were beaten for a profit of $8.50.

[michaelg]

There were three selections today but I did not lay them because I've now got second thoughts about the system and will no longer continue with it. However I might keep a close eye on it.

Out of interest, the selections were:

Wangaratta
1/1
3/1

Taree
5/1

[Lord Greystoke]

first part: betting
dec 2012 POT Plus 3% SR 35% 34 selctions
oct 2012 POT Minus 38% SR 24%
nov 2012 POT minus 8% SR 32%
sept 2012 POT minus 19% SR 34% win avg price 2.38 on tatts 106 selections

don't want to go back any further - that's enough pain.
No surprises really with the POT result - too obvious and too easy - thus overbet.

laying:
october - minus 50%
nov 2012 - minus 15%
sept 2012 - minus 14%

Giday Aussie,
Can you wind the criteria back to UT = 88 and rerun the above? Might be interesting??

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Today's selections to lay no. 1 are:

Rocky
3/1

Wyong
1/1
3/1

Albany
2/1
4/1

[michaelg]

The 5 selections were beaten for a profit of $11.49.

[michaelg]

Today's races I'm laying no.1

Ipswich
R3

Canterbury
R1

Moonee Valley
R6

Wagga
R3
R8

Wangaratta
R4

Oakbank
R1
R8

Lismore
R1
R3
R6

Geraldton
R3

[michaelg]

The 12 selections were beaten for a profit of $25.38.

[michaelg]

In accordance with the method I'm laying No.1 in these races:

Dombeen R5
Gold Coast R2
Gold Coast R7
Colac R4
Colac R5
Toowoomba R6
Moree R1

[michaelg]

Yesterday's seven selections were beaten for a profit of $12.15.

After the three day's of listing the selections here there have been 24 selections for 24 smiles for a profit of $49.12.

[michaelg]

Today in accordance with the method I'm laying No.1 in the following races:

Sun Coast
R3
R8

Ballarat
R4

Port Lincoln
R2

Queanbeyan
R7

Bunbury
R3

Horsham
R1
R6

[michaelg]

A bad day - there was one accident from the 8 selections for a loss of $22.68. The method's still in profit, of $26.49.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Tamworth R4
Sale R2