Test Laying Hot Faves.

[michaelg]

I've been looking at faves that are under $2.50 in the Telegraph market. If they are not the outright top selection in the Unitab ratings then I've been laying them (on paper only) and it seems quite promising. There have been two days over the past six where there have been no selections. From the four remaining days there has been a total of 21 selections for 16 smiles which is only a strike rate of about 25% which isn't too bad for these generally-hot faves.

Because of the low prices there has been little difference (maybe just coincidence) in the TAB and Betfair prices and a profit was made on all four days laying on the Exchange and also S.P. There have been four odds-on smiles which is a good sign because if one becomes an accident only $33 is lost but an odds-on smile gives a profit of more than $33

There's three selections today. I'm laying them for a S.P. liability of $33.

Cessnock
5/2

Stony Creek
7/1
8/2

[michaelg]

The Cessnock selection was scratched.

The two remaining selections were beaten for a profit of $15.13.

[The Ocho]

That's good michaelg but today's two didn't start anywhere near "hot faves" starting on Tatts at 5.00 and 4.80. I wish you luck though.

[michaelg]

Yes, that's disappointing.

However, the Betfair divvies were $4.61 and $5.71 for a total of $10.32 as opposed to TAB's $9.80, which is less than a 10% difference. I suppose that's a positive way of looking at it especially as the TAB takes out approximately 16% on Win betting.

[Lord Greystoke]

Yes, that's disappointing.

However, the Betfair divvies were $4.61 and $5.71 for a total of $10.32 as opposed to TAB's $9.80, which is less than a 10% difference. I suppose that's a positive way of looking at it especially as the TAB takes out approximately 16% on Win betting.

As sure as the Master was the 'Blaster'..

I sense that there might be significant value here, Michael. Please continue if you will!
Did you happen to record the PP odds from the paper from the 2 remaining selections above?

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

Yes, both selections were priced at $2.00 in the P.P. market so their actual divvies were very disappointing.


I had earlier looked at an opposite method (betting) where the P.P. fave was less than $2.50 and it was also Unitab's outright top selection. There were quite a few winners and I even thought of persuing the method because of its promising results but as time went on I realised that there was almost no difference between the TAB and Betfair prices. After one bad day and no further investigation I decided to change tack by looking at laying.

I became (for the short period of testing 6 days) pleasantly surprised when the selections became smiles and they also produced healthy profits because of their low prices. In fact, four of them have been at odds-on.

L.G, although there is not too much action I expect to continue, at least until (if) it crashes.

[michaelg]

Two lay selections today:

Townsville
1/2 ($2.00)

Wagga
4/2 ($2.20)

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi, L.G.

I became (for the short period of testing 6 days) pleasantly surprised when the selections became smiles and they also produced healthy profits because of their low prices. In fact, four of them have been at odds-on.

L.G, although there is not too much action I expect to continue, at least until (if) it crashes.

Good news mate. Regards your first para above, are you referring to the back selections saluting as smiles (losses) OR lay selections saluting as smiles?

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Fortunately they are Lay selections saluting as smiles.

Out of interest there was one Bet selection yesterday, Cessnock 3/5. It was quoted at $2.00 - it won paying $1.70. Today there is also one Bet selection, it is Echuca 5/4 and is quoted at $2.10.

[Lord Greystoke]

Ta mate.. keep up the good work. Glen

[Barny]

Djokovic @ $1.01. Anyone back him? What if he gets injured? No wonder bookies win.