Level Stakes with a Progression Twist

[Star]

This staking plan is heavlly influenced from lomaca's minimun price to accept based on your S/R and break even price required.

For me I have select a $7 minimum price based on a prepost market of Way2Bet.

For no good reason other then not see a system die by a thousand cuts I have decided on this stratergy and hasten the end quickly, if the Great Master has decided that is to be my fate.

Because I will be accepting prices from $7 and out I have decided to bet level stakes for 12 losses, if I get a winner I start all over again with a one unit bet.

Now, he is the twist, because I am getting prices from $7 minimum I have decided to escallate the bet for a further 8 runs making a total sequence of 20. If I crash and burn, I close the series and start over again with one unit.

Now, because I am betting high prices I expect long runs of out, but a winner here and there smartens things up.


So the second part of the sequence will go like this.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ( 12 losses ) then progression 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12


Ps

If I crash and burn then its back to the drawing board but I figure I am not much worse off because I budget to bet $20 a week and because I only have a few bets per day the $7 minimum ensures that I will not lose a lot in a hurry.

I will put the results up for the remaining of the series, Maybe not the names but Selections 15,16,17, 18,19,20.

Then if I have not cut my wrists, I will post the outcome.

Star.

Ps.

Sometimes declaring that you are about to fall on your sword become self fullfilling. I hope not and will push through to beat the Forum's curse.

[jose]

Why 12 Star?
I would have thought 7 then a step up so that 1 winner will put you in front would have been the go.
Having said that, if you are getting better than $7 as the price it may well even out. Swings and roundabouts and all that.
Best of luck anyhow.

[Vortech]

I'm not one that really follows staking plans but starting to show some interest as my level stakes seem to be on the right track now

If you had the following staking plan as mentioned below

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ( 12 losses ) then progression 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12

Lets say you have 100 bets in the year.
What are you chances the winner falls in the 1st 12 bets (no losses in 12 bets) against the last 10.
I would say highly likely more than 50%.
If you have more chance of getting a winner in the first lot of 12 bets why would you not have a higher stake at the start vs at the end. Is this due to bank size?

I understand the higher stake comes from trying to recover the loss in some degree, but wouldn't the more profit generated be used as the reserve.

[gunny72]

In the long run any progressive staking plan is just a series of level staking plans with different level stakes. Also, progressive staking plans tend to maximise outlays and minimise returns, when the opposite is the desired strategy. If you want to use some sort of progressive plan to retrieve losses then I suggest using a level stake but increasing the required odds after each bet until a winner is obtained.

[Star]

In the long run any progressive staking plan is just a series of level staking plans with different level stakes. Also, progressive staking plans tend to maximise outlays and minimise returns, when the opposite is the desired strategy. If you want to use some sort of progressive plan to retrieve losses then I suggest using a level stake but increasing the required odds after each bet until a winner is obtained.
What Gunny said is interesting. Thanks also to Jose and Vortech. Might rethink the stratergy before pulling the trigger. I know progressive betting is a short cut to the soup kitchen.

Gunny's idea of just increasing the odds has some merit, maybe a combination of both, increasing the odds and the bet a bit less agressively. But as Vortech was intermating, I think, that even a very conservitive progression plan can mean after a few extra losses, not much return for a greater outlay.

Regardless, playing around with staking has always fascinated me, the trick is to know when to put the smoking gun back into the holster so you live to fight another day.

Even though I am up to 14 losses with this system, I feel it has some merit because I get the feeling nearly every one has a red hot go, unlike some of the shorties, whose runs are questionable.

Besides running this system I am backing them for a place, but as suggested by another poster awhile ago to run that as a separate system and a separate bank. I notice that I get a lot of thirds and also a lot of photos for third and fourth. But not for first and second. The top place odds I have got is $3.50 with most between two and three dollars.

In the long term that might be the way to go. Maybe with the win system it is a matter of hanging in to ride out these long spells.

Star

[Star]

I had a quick look at some of The Staking System's plans and noticed how similar the Retirement Plan is to this one. By some strange fate after twelve bets the amount bet is similar to what I was going to do.

I have to really sit down and do some workouts but I have decided to go with what I have said.

So, todays bet is at :

Kembla Grange Race 5 Horse no. 2 La Commedienne Bet is now at $4

Star'

ps

I have also got it in my place system and statistics say it is a strong chance of third, and even greater of being in a photo for third and fourth. Statistics tend to have them in midfield and rear to flash home.

Why, I have no idea, but that is what the trend is, closer then midfield in running is a good look for me somehow.

Star.

[Barny]

Even though I am up to 14 losses with this system, I feel it has some merit because I get the feeling nearly every one has a red hot go, unlike some of the shorties, whose runs are questionable.


That's a light bulb moment for me Star, that's got logic to it. I get what you're saying now. ;)

[Star]

That's a light bulb moment for me Star, that's got logic to it. I get what you're saying now. ;)
No luck today Barny. Missed the start by one and a half lengths and never in it. But it beat a few home including the on course favourite Darci Drama who ran last.

Tomorrow, if their is a bet will be $5. And yes, that is the angle, I would rather be on genuine tryers and providing they have a go or get beaten because of circumstances, so be it, because that is factored into the price.

Star

[Lord Greystoke]

In the long run any progressive staking plan is just a series of level staking plans with different level stakes. Also, progressive staking plans tend to maximise outlays and minimise returns, when the opposite is the desired strategy. If you want to use some sort of progressive plan to retrieve losses then I suggest using a level stake but increasing the required odds after each bet until a winner is obtained.

You are correct when we are talking just the 1 strategy. Combining 2+ strategies allows us to simulataneously manage outlays and maximise returns, I believe. Care must be taken with setting the standard staking unit in line with a realistic assessment of SR, however. Also helps to identify selection methods with a high SR in the first place!

Just my thoughts.

Cheers LG

[Star]

You will probably think I am telling porkies, but no need to because I think I have put up some hair brained ideas and not hidden from my thoughts, logical or not.

Out to my 19th bet which was at Warwick Farm and that Great Punter in the Sky must have blessed me because my selection was No 4 Mickelberg and it paid best tote $44.10.

My bet was $8 so I got a return of $352.80. Only three bets today with the previous running third.

Nervewrecking, but pleased I held my nerve because I was pulling the pin at loss No 20 which is going to be Number One Gun at big odds too. But only $1 on it to start series again.

At least now, I have a healthy bank to play with, not scared money.

Pete

[The Ocho]

Well done Star.

When punters eyes are smiling...... :D

[Barny]

Wot a Star!!!!!!!!

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice going Star. You scooped up the same longshot winner as reded in the weekly comp! ( I assume you aint a ginga?)

Looks like he may have netted the big $1G this week.

Cheers LG

[Star]

Thanks guys. But the real thanks must go to lomaca. It was his thread that gave me the inspiration to change what I was doing.

Strangely, it was not my selections that was letting me down, but the prices I was accepting.

What lomaca was saying, or at least I think, gave me a new perspective, without changing my philosopy on selecting bettable horses. I could always select a longshot but overtime, things change, and prices get cut. Lomaca made me rethink my stratergy and not play the game of reduced prices.

I guess now, if you have followed my recent posts that I am not such a little stud now and I may be able to swing mine with the best for a little while. I looked at my R.O.I. for this system and it is now at 551%. That is over 34 bets.

I may have a little stud, but you need big balls for this progressive betting.

Pete

ps The above was in jest. I expect to come crashing down to earth soon.