Advice sort on whether recovery would work with this

[The Ocho]

Following on from a couple of posts on the $1 a day thread I thought I would open up a new thread so you maths boffins (or anyone else for that matter) could let me (and anyone else considering something like this) know what the best way to go forward would be.

I was looking at a number of older posts trying to find an idea that I could implement on my bot and found one from Bhagwan that sort of worked but not quite and while researching his idea I stumbled on something that looks okay so far (I have checked back to December 1, 2012). I’ll keep checking back whenever I get some more time but, for now, I wanted to pose the following questions/thoughts.

The system is in front at level a stakes (something I didn’t initially think it would be).

I am checking trying to win $1 a day and then stopping at a winner SAW using back bets (I would want to start out at trying to win $5 a day). A stop loss for the day is required as I am using 100% recovery during the day, which is approximately 6x the amount to win. So if I were trying to win $1 the loss would be around $6 (depending on horse odds, etc). This would therefore be around a $30 loss when trying to win $5 a day. Bear in mind that sometimes odds on pops will be bet.

Raw stats
December – 30 days, 26 winning days, 4 losing days, Level stakes profit $9.89 ($1 amount to win)
January so far 24 days, 23 winning days, 1 losing day, Level stakes profit $18.73 ($1 amount to win)

So total 54 days with 49 winning days & 5 losing days, Level stakes profit $28.62 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 90.7% daily strike rate.

What I would like to know is would you just bet this level stakes or try and use recovery? My problem is that if some type of recovery is not used than maybe there will be 6 days before recovering just the one loss let alone any more losses.

The order of losses were as follows (for $1 a day):

-6.48
+1
-4.09
-1.81
+1
+1
-3.73
then 31 winning days in a row until yesterday
-4.27
and a win today
+1

I will just say that I wouldn’t be able to afford trying to recover 100% or maybe 50% as the losses would soon mount if there are more losses (bear in mind that the above losses would be multiplied by 5 if trying to win $5 a day with a liability of around $30). Trying to recover $6 in one hit would therefore leave me liable for $180 should another losing day happen ($6 recovery amount to win x $30 base liability).

I hope all that makes sense. Any help would be appreciated.

I’m thinking of slowly increasing the bets but in line with the liability rather than the amount to win per day and maybe just recovering one loss at a time.

[pjr]

Ocho

I have a number of systems that run using bots with loss recovery. One of my systems has a 90% SR, average losing streak 1.9 and max. losing streak of 5 over the last 2 years.

With these numbers you can recover losses agressively say using fibonacci sequence.

My other two other systems use loss recovery tailor made for each. All my sytems are positive at level stakes. Loss recovery adds 9-10% to my POT.

I suggest you trial your system for at least 6 months before using real money or use small stakes.

[Star]

Unfortunately my thinking only goes so far, then I am in the unknowns. But having tried all sorts of loss chasing to a limited degree I have found their comes a time or at least it does for me when I have to pull the pin and abandon the series.

You are already doing that with the SAW stratergy per day. Maybe an extension of that will be when you go into that losing run sequence and the recovery bet starts to escalate when the price is really short and you start to feel a bit of stress building up.

That point is different for everybody, depending on their personal circumstances.

Once we start thinking about how to deal with this, to me, unfortunately, the stratergy to win $1 per day is the restricting element. And, if you want to pursue this $1 a day, great, go for it, because, until I get the negatives out of my mind, I cannot be a positive influence which is exactly what you do not need.

I hope someone else can advise on how to extend your life into that losing run.

Now, you have to remember that at present I am into a losing run sequence of 16, fortunately, their was no bet yesterday and today but it looks like their might be six on Saturday. I have decided to pull the pin on 20 lossers or 22 which means that saturday either sees the series win or lose then I might start again with a slight altering of the rules.

The most I can lose in a series is $56 on a 20 loss series. Maybe an adaption of the Retirement Plan might be worth looking at. I noticed how close it was to what I want to do, but mine does not have the fancy maths built into it, but the bets are extremly close to what I do anyway based on my average odds.

It is the odds on and short prices that kill you but the Retirement Plan sort od caters for that. Also have alook at The Staking Machine staking plans, their might be something their that gives you some inspiration so you can adapt to suit your style and comfort zone. Bear in mind that nobody has the perfect one, so, your adaption might just be for you.

Good Luck

Star

[The Ocho]

Thanks pjr & Star

pjr - Fibonacci may be okay but, as I said, I would have to watch the liability side of the bets (how much I would lose each day trying to recover the loss). I notice you had 5 losses in a row for a 90% strike rate. Bhagwan once posted that a maximum run of outs for 90% should be 3 so I guess sometimes the horses don't listen to the maths. :D

Star - I will check out the staking machine and retirement plan although I vaguely remember checking both those before and I think you had to pay for the staking machine and the retirement plan was a divisor type thing which I just can't get my head around.

Just to clarify - I would be looking for about a $30 loss to begin with trying to win $5 for the day. I am looking for a balance between that $30 not escalating too quickly to $150, $300 or more but, at the same time, trying to get back to square as soon as possible rather than waiting about a week to get back to square (depending on the loss and odds).

[Star]

Thanks pjr & Star

pjr - Fibonacci may be okay but, as I said, I would have to watch the liability side of the bets (how much I would lose each day trying to recover the loss). I notice you had 5 losses in a row for a 90% strike rate. Bhagwan once posted that a maximum run of outs for 90% should be 3 so I guess sometimes the horses don't listen to the maths. :D

Star - I will check out the staking machine and retirement plan although I vaguely remember checking both those before and I think you had to pay for the staking machine and the retirement plan was a divisor type thing which I just can't get my head around.

Just to clarify - I would be looking for about a $30 loss to begin with trying to win $5 for the day. I am looking for a balance between that $30 not escalating too quickly to $150, $300 or more but, at the same time, trying to get back to square as soon as possible rather than waiting about a week to get back to square (depending on the loss and odds).

You can download a trial version which has all the various back and lay staking systems on it. About twenty of each. Well worth a look. And it's free.

As far as the Retirement and divisor I sort of agree, but noticed how similar my bets would be compared to the fancy maths of the retirement.

I just made mine up, And then realized mine is a combination of level stakes plus a progression when the odds would not recover.

One thing the Retirement has that might have some merit is when you have a winner that does not recover all your losses then your new loss is adjusted and you take that into account for your next bet depending on the price available.

I hope that makes sense. For guys who say they get above a 50% strike rate then I have to say they are a bigger stud then me.

STAR

[Surround]

Hi TO
I've been away from the forum for yonks and have just started to get interested again.
I recently came across a site that has a number of staking plans in excel format readily available to download.
If you Google "Rising Floor Staking Plan" or "Rated Rising Floor Staking Plan" you'll find them easily enough.
One of them "could" be what you want.
If you can't find let me know.
Best of luck with it.

Bob

[pjr]

Ocho

The key to loss recovery is to incorporate a loss stop. Continuing to chase losses will bust your bank. You need to obtain 6-12 months of data on avg number of losses, max loss for your system. Having established these figures lets say your avg. is 2 and max. 5, if you set your loss stop to 3 you may find that on 90% of occasions full loss recovery is achieved. You have to accept that you will still have losing days.

This is only half of the equation. You need to obtain your average dividend and determine your multipliers for loss recovery. I calculate my multipliers to two decimal places. As you can see there is a lot of mathematics and statistics that needs to be calculated to develop a successful system. It has taken me 2 years to get to this point.

[The Ocho]

Thanks for the replies so far guys. I will go thru them in more detail after work or tonight.

Just one thing though with what Star said: "For guys who say they get above a 50% strike rate then I have to say they are a bigger stud then me." I may have misrepresented myself somewhat.

With the back checking I have done I currently have a 90% DAILY strike rate. Meaning I would have won my $1 on 90% of my betting days. My bets during the day I guess would be losing at about a rate of -13% LOT from the stats provided on this site using purely level stakes on each of those bets. I use 100% recovery during each days bets up to about 4 losses or around -$6 (using $1 as the base rate amount to win).

I hope that makes sense.

How I'm getting a 90% daily strike rate while losing at level stakes is anyone's guess. :confused: :D

[Lord Greystoke]

Ocho

I have a number of systems that run using bots with loss recovery. One of my systems has a 90% SR, average losing streak 1.9 and max. losing streak of 5 over the last 2 years.

With these numbers you can recover losses agressively say using fibonacci sequence.

My other two other systems use loss recovery tailor made for each. All my sytems are positive at level stakes. Loss recovery adds 9-10% to my POT.

I suggest you trial your system for at least 6 months before using real money or use small stakes.

pjr,

What BOT do you use for the recovery - whether that be fibonacci or tailor made etc , if I may ask?

Cheers LG

[pjr]

LG

I use BF bot manager. I developed my system approx. 3 years ago. However there was no suitable automated system available. Thanks to Rade over at BF he has accomodated many of my suggestions.

BF has a built in loss recovery system which is quite good. I choose however to custom my loss recovery using the simple sequence.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks pjr.

Appreciate that.. Hats off to you on your hard work and success with the recovery solutions and automation thereafter.

Cheers LG

[Star]

Hi TO
I've been away from the forum for yonks and have just started to get interested again.
I recently came across a site that has a number of staking plans in excel format readily available to download.
If you Google "Rising Floor Staking Plan" or "Rated Rising Floor Staking Plan" you'll find them easily enough.
One of them "could" be what you want.
If you can't find let me know.
Best of luck with it.

Bob
Thanks for the information Bob. I had a look to follow up your link but had no success, any chance of some more information.

Regards

Pete

[The Ocho]

Thanks for the information Bob. I had a look to follow up your link but had no success, any chance of some more information.

Regards

Pete
I also had a look and found it under the rated rising floor staking system. I downloaded the spreadsheets and filled in some figures and....it doesn't work. Nothing happens. Maybe it's just me though.

I just had a thought though (I know, scary :rolleyes: ). With the (at the moment) 90% daily strike rate and losing more than I win should I have a losing day then maybe I really should be looking at some type of reversed lay staking plan rather than a back staking plan.

I'm having a look at that staking machine web site and you can download a free version but it's saying you can only input 10 bets. How does that work?

I was running though their various back staking plans though until the light bulb just went off hitting me in the head. :eek:

I'll investigate further.

By the way, another winning day today and the last 13 days of November were also all winning days. I'll also keep back checking as I go along to see if this is some sort of freak run or something (what else could explain it)? ;)

[Star]

[QUOTE=The Ocho]I also had a look and found it under the rated rising floor staking system. I downloaded the spreadsheets and filled in some figures and....it doesn't work. Nothing happens. Maybe it's just me though.

I just had a thought though (I know, scary :rolleyes: ). With the (at the moment) 90% daily strike rate and losing more than I win should I have a losing day then maybe I really should be looking at some type of reversed lay staking plan rather than a back staking plan.

I'm having a look at that staking machine web site and you can download a free version but it's saying you can only input 10 bets. How does that work?

I was running though their various back staking plans though until the light bulb just went off hitting me in the head. :eek:

I'll investigate further.

By the way, another winning day today and the last 13 days of November were also all winning days. I'll also keep back checking as I go along to see if this is some sort of freak run or something (what else could explain it)? ;)[/QUOTE


You did beter then me, I could find nothing on the spreadsheets, I will have another play though.

As far as The Staking Machine goes, I believe it is fully functional in the trial version but only allows you ten input selections, but that should be enough to work out what the Software is capable off.

But, for our needs here, it gives in full, all the various Staking Plans that can be factored into the software. At this stage, you are only interested in the various plans and what they can do.

I found some I had never heard off before. Let me know if you can get the info on these plans otherwise I will have to show you where to get them from.

Pete

[The Ocho]

Thanks Star for the offer but I've had a bit of a play around with that staking machine but couldn't really find anything that's aggressive to get back to square as soon as possible yet gentle enough if another loss comes along.

[Star]

Thanks Star for the offer but I've had a bit of a play around with that staking machine but couldn't really find anything that's aggressive to get back to square as soon as possible yet gentle enough if another loss comes along.

Yes! That's the major problem with loss chasing as I see it. Maybe, not letting the sequence run to long is a consideration.

I think, maybe, it might just have to be a trade off, nothing perfect, but something that keeps you in the game, controls your losses to a degree, until you have a golden run, or a few high priced winners.

I can see no other way, especially with my style of betting, strike rate, prices and luck.

Pete

[macs]

TO, if your SR is up around 90% have you considered setting up the BOT with a percentage of bank stake but then don't allow the BOT to drop the stake on a loss? Not exactly a loss recovery system but it might be a safer way to decrease the time in recovering a loss.

[Lord Greystoke]

Ocho,

If you can get SR to 85%+, 5% of bank increasing at +1 unit after a loss and resetting to 1 unit after the next win seems to work ok. Should mean that Bank will not bust or anywhere near it, assuming you retain the high strike level. NO need for a more highly geared progression eg Fibonacci as this will also increase losses and turnover without adding significantly to ROI = bank, if at all !

LG

[The Ocho]

TO, if your SR is up around 90% have you considered setting up the BOT with a percentage of bank stake but then don't allow the BOT to drop the stake on a loss? Not exactly a loss recovery system but it might be a safer way to decrease the time in recovering a loss.
I'm not betting this yet but that is exactly what I am considering doing - ratchet staking instead of level stakes however I am still considering whether I will be using some type of recovery.

[The Ocho]

Ocho,

If you can get SR to 85%+, 5% of bank increasing at +1 unit after a loss and resetting to 1 unit after the next win seems to work ok. Should mean that Bank will not bust or anywhere near it, assuming you retain the high strike level. NO need for a more highly geared progression eg Fibonacci as this will also increase losses and turnover without adding significantly to ROI = bank, if at all !

LG
So what you're saying is betting at level stakes (1 unit) and if there is a loser raise it 1 unit (to 2 units?) for only the one bet? That means I'd only recover 1 unit for the approximate 6 unit loss I would have had.

I'm currently thinking of slowly going up in stakes to about either 3 or 4 units if there are a number of losses and capping it there.

The other thing I haven't taken into account is that all this recovery just gets me back to zero rather than making $1 (or 1 unit) per day. Say if it takes 4 days to recover after a loss I should really be +5 units at the end of the 5 days (1 losing day and 4 winning day) rather than back to zero.

I'll have to think a bit more about it.

Just to let you guys know I've now checked back to the start of November 2012:

January 2013 so far - 25 days, 24 winning days, 1 losing day, Level stakes profit $19.73 ($1 amount to win)
December 2012 – 30 days, 26 winning days, 4 losing days, Level stakes profit $9.89 ($1 amount to win)
November 2012 – 30 days, 28 winning days, 2 losing days, Level stakes profit $18.97 ($1 amount to win)

So total 85 days with 78 winning days & 7 losing days, Level stakes profit $48.59 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 91.7% daily strike rate.

The average of the 7 losing days is -4.2 units with the highest being -7.71 units and the lowest being -1.32 units.

So I'll keep my recovery centered around a 6 unit loss for thinking purposes as that would ideally be the maximum loss per losing day.

[macs]

I was sure I'd seen an option somewhere to only alter the stake in an upward direction on bank percentage staking but darned if I can find it this morning, maybe I was dreaming.

[The Ocho]

I was sure I'd seen an option somewhere to only alter the stake in an upward direction on bank percentage staking but darned if I can find it this morning, maybe I was dreaming.
That's a definite staking plan you're talking about so you're not dreaming.

Example back 5% of bank and raise stakes as the bank goes or lower stakes if bank goes down to always be 5% of bank.

The other option is ratchet staking with the above however the bet never goes down - it just stays the same as before your loss until your in profit again and then continues up. In a way they are both like level stakes however the stake changes depending on bank balance.

I was looking at the bank percentage staking with this from 26/12/12 until yesterday a $5.10 starting bet would now be at $8.04. This was using a 10% loss/liability of a $300 bank ($30) rather than the actual back amount which is set at 1.7% of the $300 bank.

[Surround]

I've attached one of the spreadsheets that I've put some divs into and added a couple of formulae to make things easier.
I've rounded up the stake column as I don't think anyone invests with odd dollars and cents.
I also included comments from their forum to advise how to use it.

[The Ocho]

Thanks Surround. I'm not sure that I really understand it but I'm sure others will appreciate it.

By the way, another winning day today.

[Lord Greystoke]

So what you're saying is betting at level stakes (1 unit) and if there is a loser raise it 1 unit (to 2 units?) for only the one bet? That means I'd only recover 1 unit for the approximate 6 unit loss I would have had.


It's progressive Ocho so you keep raising by +1 Unit with every Loss...

START
1 Unit WIN => Loss so +1 Unit
2 Unit WIN => Another loss so +1 Unit
3 Unit WIN => Win so reset back to 1 Unit
1 Unit WIN etc etc


You will find that in practice, there will be instances of several losses in a row (even at high SR) so that you will not necessarily only recover the 1 unit. The point with the +1 unit per loss approach is that the 'pendulum' doesn't go spastic in your hand and blow up your bank ! If you can maintain the high strike >85%, it's the 5% starting stake which will keep the 'ocho-lations' under control.

LG

[The Ocho]

Thanks LG but that wouldn't regain the loss(es) very well. This is because I think I need some type of lay recovery staking due to a winning day being +1 unit and a losing day being around -6 units. Kind of like laying a $6 horse and trying to recover the bets.

[Lord Greystoke]

Understood. Good luck with it.

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

I hit the ground with a thud last night when checking the October 2012 figures.

October 2012 - 31 days, 25 winning days, 6 losing days, Level stakes loss -$13.71 ($1 amount to win)

So total 116 days with 103 winning days & 13 losing days, Level stakes profit $34.88 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 88.7% daily strike rate.

[The Ocho]

It looks like 3 months of great data means absolutely nothing in this game.

I tested for September 2012 which was the worst result to date and yet it was another winning day today making it one loss for the whole of January so far. :confused:

September 2012 - 30 days, 21 winning days, 9 losing days, Level stakes loss -$28.50 ($1 amount to win)

So total 147 days with 125 winning days & 22 losing days, Level stakes profit $7.38 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 85% daily strike rate.

Oh well, back to the drawing board. :(

[Try Try Again]

Hi The Ocho,

Could the drop in results for Sept & Oct be the change of class of horses coming into their preparations during those months. Just a thought.

[The Ocho]

Hi The Ocho,

Could the drop in results for Sept & Oct be the change of class of horses coming into their preparations during those months. Just a thought.
Hi Try Try Again.

I'm not sure the races I look at would really change as they are run quite early in the day and would involve mostly maiden races except on Saturdays I suppose.

If anyone can turn this string of results into a winning system I will let you know what it's all about. They need to be run from bottom to top as I was checking them backwards, lol (like most things I do :oops: ).

Something I tried to check was having 3 banks or similar rather than one bank. 100% recovery over the next day would leave a bank pretty vulnerable and the same for a 50% recovery.

First entry below is from 30 September and last entry at bottom is from 1st September):
1
1
1
1
1
-5.24
1
-8.88
1
1
1
1
1
-11.66
-4.12
1
1
-7.01
1
-7.3
-2.1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1.03
1
-2.16

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Try Try Again.

I'm not sure the races I look at would really change as they are run quite early in the day and would involve mostly maiden races except on Saturdays I suppose.

If anyone can turn this string of results into a winning system I will let you know what it's all about. They need to be run from bottom to top as I was checking them backwards, lol (like most things I do :oops: ).

Something I tried to check was having 3 banks or similar rather than one bank. 100% recovery over the next day would leave a bank pretty vulnerable and the same for a 50% recovery.

First entry below is from 30 September and last entry at bottom is from 1st September):
1
1
1
1
1
-5.24
1
-8.88
1
1
1
1
1
-11.66
-4.12
1
1
-7.01
1
-7.3
-2.1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1.03
1
-2.16

I need divvies mate (but nothing else)... Tatts will do.

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

I can't give you the divvies LG, sorry. Just need some way of recovering those losses which, I admit, looks impossible.

[Star]

Unfortunately my thinking only goes so far, then I am in the unknowns. But having tried all sorts of loss chasing to a limited degree I have found their comes a time or at least it does for me when I have to pull the pin and abandon the series.

You are already doing that with the SAW stratergy per day. Maybe an extension of that will be when you go into that losing run sequence and the recovery bet starts to escalate when the price is really short and you start to feel a bit of stress building up.

That point is different for everybody, depending on their personal circumstances.

Once we start thinking about how to deal with this, to me, unfortunately, the stratergy to win $1 per day is the restricting element. And, if you want to pursue this $1 a day, great, go for it, because, until I get the negatives out of my mind, I cannot be a positive influence which is exactly what you do not need.

I hope someone else can advise on how to extend your life into that losing run.

Now, you have to remember that at present I am into a losing run sequence of 16, fortunately, their was no bet yesterday and today but it looks like their might be six on Saturday. I have decided to pull the pin on 20 lossers or 22 which means that saturday either sees the series win or lose then I might start again with a slight altering of the rules.

The most I can lose in a series is $56 on a 20 loss series. Maybe an adaption of the Retirement Plan might be worth looking at. I noticed how close it was to what I want to do, but mine does not have the fancy maths built into it, but the bets are extremly close to what I do anyway based on my average odds.

It is the odds on and short prices that kill you but the Retirement Plan sort od caters for that. Also have alook at The Staking Machine staking plans, their might be something their that gives you some inspiration so you can adapt to suit your style and comfort zone. Bear in mind that nobody has the perfect one, so, your adaption might just be for you.

Good Luck

Star
Now, that was written before I hit gold on the eighteenth bet. The $44 winner at Warwick Farm.

But what I said I still think, and the reason for that is by trying to win $1 you leave yourself with no margin for luck.

Making sense, probably not, but, my philosopy keeps me in the game even if I can not spell it and can't be assed to spell check after the drenching we have got here, plus without power for 36 hours.

Pete

[The Ocho]

Now, that was written before I hit gold on the eighteenth bet. The $44 winner at Warwick Farm.

But what I said I still think, and the reason for that is by trying to win $1 you leave yourself with no margin for luck.

Making sense, probably not, but, my philosopy keeps me in the game even if I can not spell it and can't be assed to spell check after the drenching we have got here, plus without power for 36 hours.

Pete
Thanks Star. Sorry to here of your drenching. I hope everything returns to normal sometime soon.

Yes, trying to win $1 sounds easy enough but it is soooo hard.

You are right that its the shorties which will stuff this up.

Having said that there was another winner today making it just the one loss so far this month (from 29 days). So whatever happens tomorrow January will be in profit by a fair way which has been accounted for in the previous mentioned skinny 5 month profit figure. :(

Still strange how the last 3 months have been really good while the 2 months before that were abysmal (particularly September). :confused: