A Little System

[Raven]

Here's a simple little system I follow on Saturdays, just for fun really. If I go to the pub on a Saturday I still like to have some small interest bets during the day, and this one does throw up some nice winners. I don't have results to back this claim up, but I'd reckon this would make a POT by chasing best available price (plenty of options on a Sat).

1/ Sat Metro only
2/ Only consider horses with 1 start for 1 win
3/ Last start was at a non-metro venue
4/ Is not being ridden by a claiming apprentice

Seems fairly logical to me. Horse wins on debut at the provincials, and trainer then takes it straight to town on a Saturday. If the trainer is competent, these horses are good enough to win. Also I consider the use of an apprentice as a negative, as usually the horse is on the limit anyway, so no need to claim.

[Vortech]

A little Gem this one.

1285 Bets since 1999 - Return of $1336.50 on NSW tab

[The Ocho]

A little Gem this one.

1285 Bets since 1999 - Return of $1336.50 on NSW tab
Hi Vortech. Is that a profit of $51.50 (3.9% pot) or $1336.50 (104% pot)?

Over 14 years that's 91 bets per year on average (1.75 bets per week).

[Vortech]

Hi Vortech. Is that a profit of $51.50 (3.9% pot) or $1336.50 (104% pot)?

Over 14 years that's 91 bets per year on average (1.75 bets per week).
3.9% POT - 17.5% Strike Rate @ $6.82 avg div

[Vortech]

Also out of interest with this system

Only Melbourne and WA are making profit
Geldings are the only sex that make profit
Generally they are dropping weight from last start. Horses same weight or more are making a loss.

[Raven]

Yea Ocho this one ain't gonna make us millionaires :) But I'm not surprised it makes a small profit. As I say chase BOB when you can, back the roughies at BFSP etc. Being a system though I assume it has the occasional losing year.

Vortech, it might be worthwhile to do an SP analysis. May find something like <$3 not worth bothering with etc.

[Raven]

Also out of interest with this system

Only Melbourne and WA are making profit
Geldings are the only sex that make profit
Generally they are dropping weight from last start. Horses same weight or more are making a loss.
I suppose another thing you could look at is whether it works at non-Saturday metro meetings as well. I got a nice winner in Brissy on the weekend with this.

[gunny72]

Seems to be a 3yo method. Recent Brisbane examples are Carmora last weekend and Tukiyo on the 19 Jan. good prices too.

[SpeedyBen]

Also out of interest with this system

Only Melbourne and WA are making profit
Geldings are the only sex that make profit
Generally they are dropping weight from last start. Horses same weight or more are making a loss.Perhaps it's a left handed system.

[Vortech]

Nothing wrong with a phil mickelson system!

[reddevil]

Hi All, I think it makes a fair bit of sense that Melbourne is profitable as most of the big stables take their horses to the bush tracks. Out of interest today there are 4 selections at Sandown.

6 - 7,9 Both 3yo Geldings
7 - 8,10 Both 3yo Fillies

[Try Try Again]

Two good results from yesterday Reddevil.

Race 6 #7 2nd $12.60 place
Race 7 #8 1st $5.50/$2.40

[reddevil]

Nice results. I will be keeping an eye on these. I think I will stick with VIC racing.

[Raven]

Todays bets:

S r3/13
B r1/7
B r1/9
B r8/16
P r2/6

[enjay]

Hi Vortech.

Have been trying to contact you on the other forum but am having problems. Just check your PMs to see if anything has come through. I am having problems with post and replies. Bi???? and Nea????? are looking into it. My contact is sabu at activ8 dot net dot au. Thanks.

[Vortech]

Just replied. Sorry I rarely check the private messages and had a few sitting there.