My NRL Tipping

[UselessBettor]

I've been playing around with some figures on NRL and came up with a system using the stats for loonger term and shorter term periods. I then use these to come up with a high/low chance rate for each team.

Although the Charity sheild is not really played the same way I am going to give it a go.

South Sydney : $2.01 - $2.05
St George : $1.96 - $1.98

I also want to take a safe bet and a risky bet. So two banks.

Risky Bet : St George -3.5 = $3.25
Safe Bet : St George +12.5 = $1.41

Im not worried if this is completely wrong for tonights game but will be interested to see how it goes

[Raven]

UB, do you have any stats with line betting in the NRL? I found a site for AFL with results for last year an 2011 and will see if I can find any patterns.

What I'd like to know is:
1/ do faves in the h2h have an advantage at the line
2/ do home teams have an advantage

I know of a bookie that offers $2 lines, 100% market, and I want to try it out this year.

[UselessBettor]

Raven,

I do not have the lines. But if your really interested !!!! they are available at

oddsportal.com

Example:

http://www.oddsportal.com/rugby-league/australia/nrl-2012/bulldogs-melbourne-storm-1479106/#ah;2

If you look at the Asian Handicap its the line is the one which has the hightest number of bookmakers against it. In the above link it was 1.5 (10 bookmakers).

[UselessBettor]

Round 1 selections.

This is just system I am testing. It might have no legs.

Roosters vs Rabbitohs -- Rabbitohs should win. No Bet at current Odds.
Broncos vs Manly -- Slight edge to Brisbane at home. No bet at current odds.
Eels vs Warriors -- Eels should go well at home. Eels bet at $1.72
Canterbury vs North Qld -- Cowboys slight edge. Cowboys bet at $2.09
Penrith vs Canberra --- Canberra slight edge. Canberra at $2.00
Melb vs St George --- Not sure on this. Odds for St George are good but I am staying out of it. No Bet.
Cronulla vs Gold Coast -- Cronulla slight edge at home. No Bet at current odds.
Newcastle vs Wests -- Too close to call. Tigers bet at $2.60 with value in the odds.

Bets:
Confident Value Bets:
Eels $1.72
Cowboys $2.09
Canberra $2.00

Outsider Value Bets:
Tigers bet $2.60

Total to date : 0/1
Profit : -1 unit