Test a Neural Lay Method.

[michaelg]

Thanks to Speedy Ben's success I've looked at a neural lay system. Over the past two days there have been 115 selections for 115 smiles.

I'll see how it goes today. Because of the time it takes to identify the selections I have omitted Canterbury, Launceston and Albany. If I get time I might have a look at them. I'm laying the following selections for a liability of $33.

Taree
1/2, 11
3/2, 4, 8, 10, 11, 15
4/6, 8, 14
5/5, 12
6/2, 4, 8, 12, 14
7/9, 14
8/5, 9, 14

Stawell
5/8
6/11
7/3, 5, 11
8/9

Ipswich
1/10
2/8
4/11
5/4
7/8, 12
8/17, 18, 19, 20, 21

Sapphire Coast
1/3, 11
2/7,8, 10
5/7
6/1, 4, 5, 11
7/13
8/7

[michaelg]

The method has already struck an accident. Thankyou, Forum Curse...

However there have been 18 smiles for a return of $27.91 ($33 liability) which isn't too bad for an outsider method. The loss at the moment is $4.82.

The selections for the remaining venues are:

Albany
1/3
2/4
4/5, 9
7/6, 9, 10

Cranbourne
3/2, 4
4/1, 7, 10
7/9, ,11
8/10, 13

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - from the 67 selections there were 65 smiles for a profit of $18.92.

Due to time constraints I've only looked at the four major meetings today, they are:

Warwick Farm
5/8
6/6
7/7
8/6, 12

Flemington
3/8, 11
6/8
7/9, 10, 11
8/5, 11, 14

Morphetville
4/9
6/3
8/10

Dombeen
1/11, 15
2/12
4/9
6/13
7/6, 11, 16
8/11, 17
9/13

[michaelg]

I made a mistake - there were no selections in Flemington race 8 even though I listed there were three of them. No need to say one of the "selections" was the winner of the race.

However, in spite of this the method thankfully finished about $1 in profit.

From tomorrow I'll re-start the method as it looks promising, and I'll double-check the validity of the selections.

[michaelg]

And now for something completely different - a neural Lay method that targets the high end of the market so that any smile should produce a relatively good profit. On Friday and yesterday there was one accident each day but almost all the smiles ended up at single prices on Unitab.

Hobart
7/1

Bunbury
4/3
5/2
7/2
8/7
9/9

Canberra
3/7

Corowa
4/1

Stony Creek
3/8
8/6

[The Ocho]

Okay I'll join you mg. These are lay bets and must be under $10. I am using Maria staking - $5 up to odds $3.50, $3 up to odds $7, $2 up to odds $10.

By the way, these are all 100 raters on tattsbet/unitab and only selecting certain horses.

Sunshine Coast
2- 8

Corowa
4- 4
5- 14

Stony Creek
5- 1

Clare
4- 6

Canberra
5- 13
7- 3

Bunbury
8- 7

Echuca
3- 3
5- 1

Hobart
5- 4

[Rinconpaul]

Okay I'll join you mg. These are lay bets and must be under $10. I am using Maria staking - $5 up to odds $3.50, $3 up to odds $7, $2 up to odds $10.

By the way, these are all 100 raters on tattsbet/unitab and only selecting certain
4
Let me be the first to congratulate you Ocho. A real gutsy effort! I haven't got to the bottom of your selection criteria yet, but you obviously have an insight into selection analysis beyond the ordinary.
Well done RP

[Lord Greystoke]

Okay I'll join you mg. These are lay bets and must be under $10. I am using Maria staking - $5 up to odds $3.50, $3 up to odds $7, $2 up to odds $10.

By the way, these are all 100 raters on tattsbet/unitab and only selecting certain horses.

Sunshine Coast
2- 8

Corowa
4- 4
5- 14

Stony Creek
5- 1

Clare
4- 6

Canberra
5- 13
7- 3

Bunbury
8- 7

Echuca
3- 3
5- 1

Hobart
5- 4My dear Ocho.

It would appear that the Good Lord has slipped a DART (Doctorate in Advanced pattern-Recognition Technology) into your diaper at birth.

Ingenious.

Cheers LG

PS Still working on my TAFE certificate here... nearly 49 years later!

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much Rinconpaul and Lord Greystoke. I can't believe it. Beginners luck for sure. I noticed today they all lost but the following were my stats for just the ones that started at $10 or under:

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Echu (AUS) 10th Mar / 14:30 R3 1200m Hcap 3. Solar Strike Lay 3 3.95 3
AUS / Coro (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:10 R4 1600m CL2 4. Mr Trim Lay 3.02 6 3.02
AUS / StCr (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:23 R5 1100m Hcap 1. Spirit Cent Lay 3.03 3.95 3.03
AUS / Canb (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:32 R5 1400m Listed 13. Brave Soul Lay 3.05 4.1 3.05
AUS / Clre (AUS) 10th Mar / 15:36 R4 1100m Hcap 6. Sir Trentin Lay 3.05 3.4 3.05
AUS / Hoba (AUS) 10th Mar / 16:04 R5 1200m Hcap 4. Hold Onto Your Hat Lay 2.06 7.4 2.06
AUS / Canb (AUS) 10th Mar / 16:46 R7 2000m Listed 3. Shadows In The Sun Lay 3.1 5.6 3.1

I'm trying this with Maria staking ($5, $3, $2) but also using ratchet staking. While giving this a go I am still thinking of just using a plain $5 level stake as BF might start to question the lay bets under $5 (most were for $3 today).

Today 7 smiles from 7 matching selections
Maria Total +$18.99 :) (commission deducted)
$5 Level Stakes +$32.72 (commission deducted)

[Lord Greystoke]

The method has already struck an accident. Thankyou, Forum Curse...

However there have been 18 smiles for a return of $27.91 ($33 liability) which isn't too bad for an outsider method. The loss at the moment is $4.82.

Another promising adventure in Neurology from Michaelg, albeit with the Forum Curse(FC) poking it's nose in! Perhaps we could rename it to 'Forum Bonus'(FB) as it always seems to bring with it some kind of additional learning or sharpened focus with it?

FB is a tad less onorous on the ears in the early hours than FC, yes?!

Long may your Neural lays continue, Master blaster.

Cheers LG

[Rinconpaul]

Ocho I've cracked the DNA of your system, it's brilliant!
LG was spot on when he said you had a degree in DART. Mate you've revealed enough. I'm elevating you to the Hall of Fame. It's simple, has "balls", returns great Lay div's, enough to repay the occasional loss quickly.
Do no more, leave it in the vault, otherwise the 21YO Glenfiddich will be watered down to a Claytons.
Cheers RP

[Lord Greystoke]

Ocho I've cracked the DNA of your system, it's brilliant!
LG was spot on when he said you had a degree in DART. Mate you've revealed enough. I'm elevating you to the Hall of Fame. It's simple, has "balls", returns great Lay div's, enough to repay the occasional loss quickly.
Do no more, leave it in the vault, otherwise the 21YO Glenfiddich will be watered down to a Claytons.
Cheers RPI said he had a Doctorate! It is me who will be aiming for a degree.. one day.

Cheers LG

[Rinconpaul]

I said he had a Doctorate! It is me who will be aiming for a degree.. one day.

Cheers LGMy Lord, I have been a courtier more than 50 years and lay my hands upon your sword: never to speak of this that I have heard.
RP

[Lord Greystoke]

In the name of God,
St Michaelg and St Ocho..
I give you the right to spot patterns in your own name and the power
to yield profits from them.
Rise up, Sir Riconpaul !

LG

[Rinconpaul]

In the name of God,
St Michaelg and St Ocho..
I give you the right to spot patterns in your own name and the power
to yield profits from them.
Rise up, Sir Riconpaul !

LGMy Lord, with our ramblings, do you think we have done enough to conceal The Ocho's tracks, making it impossible to follow him by mundane means?
RP

[Lord Greystoke]

It is written.

LG

[The Ocho]

Thanks SIR Rinconpaul and Lord Greystoke for your comments and concerns. I will keep listing the selections for a little while longer (or at least until they fall in a hole).

Probably against my better judgement, I will start by laying these for $5 which will be a 1% stake of a $500 bank and also use ratchet staking which means the stakes don't drop down if there is a loss.

I'm still not sure of the best staking method - %staking (the $5 flat), Maria or Liability. There are pros and cons for them all such as giving up $30 if using liability for a $3 horse, etc.

As always, the pick only becomes a selection if it is $10 or under before the off.

Moonee Valley
2 4
8 7

Gosford
4 7
7 8

Morphettville
1 1
8 10
9 3

Orange
2 5
6 2
9 7

[stugots]

Tread carefully here guys, I ran this from the start of this year & while the last couple of weeks were very good overall it's losing around 20% according to my figures with Jan & Feb both heavy losers.

The only things I could see to improve it is to omit anything starting from barrier 7 or less. That cut it down to an average of less than 1 bet a day but profit ~ 50%.

Unfortunately I don't have tatts ratings going back any further, so really it's a fairly small sample of <400bets & doesn't include South Aust,Tas or QR meets.

[Rinconpaul]

Tread carefully here guys, I ran this from the start of this year & while the last couple of weeks were very good overall it's losing around 20% according to my figures with Jan & Feb both heavy losers.

The only things I could see to improve it is to omit anything starting from barrier 7 or less. That cut it down to an average of less than 1 bet a day but profit ~ 50%.

I've been looking at it too, the loser today was rated 1st Fav in the default neurals, but then again four of the Lay winners from yesterday were to. The balance of Lay winners were not rated 1st Fav using default, CF, TM & CRS filters. So I'm wondering if applying the filter, "must not be rated 1st Fav using any neural filter or combination", would improve strike rate?
I don't know whether you have a neural database to experiment with Stugots? The other thing to consider is whether the losers were in clusters which makes recovery staking out of the question?
Cheers RP

[stugots]

No, no neural database Rinconpaul, & I am doubting any recovery plan would fair very well, for example 26jan to 9feb there were 3 winning days with total loss around 45units & a similar losing run in late feb.

Drop the <=7 barriers out & it looks ok but with such a small sample, who knows long term.

[The Ocho]

Hi stugouts. Are you talking about my selections because although they are reasonably straightforward, I didn't actually say the exact selection method?

There were 5 matching bets today with 4 winners and a loser.

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Morp (AUS) 11th Mar / 12:50 R1 1600m Hcap 1. The Wingman Lay 5 4.4 5
AUS / MVal (AUS) 11th Mar / 13:00 R2 3000m Hcap 4. High Kingczar Lay 5.05 7.4 5.05
AUS / Orng (AUS) 11th Mar / 13:08 R2 1600m CL1 5. Our Cracker Lay 5.1 9.6 5.1
AUS / Orng (AUS) 11th Mar / 15:30 R6 1000m CL2 2. East Village Lay 5.15 6.2 -26.78
AUS / Morp (AUS) 11th Mar / 17:17 R8 1200m Grp2 10. Shamal Wind Lay 5.15 6.8 5.15

Today's loss was -$7.80 (commission deducted) using a $5 starting stake and raising it in line with bank.

[stugots]

yep TO, reckon i have a fairly good handle on what they are

[The Ocho]

That is disappointing to here stugots. Just for the sake of the thing I will list today's contenders that have to be under $10. There's not many.

Muswellbrook
2- 7
5- 13

Terang
3- 1
7- 2

Coffs Harbour
2- 7
3- 10
4- 5
5- 4

[The Ocho]

Terang Race 3 No 1 is also a selection but because it's only a 3 horse race I won't include it.

[stugots]

As I mentioned, I have only tested a relatively small number of selections so maybe someone with a larger tatts ratings database could assist.

[The Ocho]

Out of today's picks 5 met the criteria for 5 smiles. Terang race 3 with 3 horses also didn't salute the judge and therefore would have been another smile but, as I previously mentioned, I didn't include this. Out of interest all picks lost today - even the ones over $10.

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Coff (AUS) 12th Mar / 13:07 R2 1315m Mdn 7. Pretty Bizaar Lay 5.15 7.06 5.15
AUS / Coff (AUS) 12th Mar / 14:17 R4 1012m Mdn 5. Radiologist Lay 5.15 3.9 5.15
AUS / Coff (AUS) 12th Mar / 14:52 R5 1012m Hcap 4. Hidden Woman Lay 5.15 4.3 5.15
AUS / Tera (AUS) 12th Mar / 15:20 R7 1000m Hcap 2. Gold Rust Lay 5.15 7.8 5.15
AUS / Musw (AUS) 12th Mar / 15:38 R5 1750m CL1 13. Actors Guild Lay 5.15 6 5.15

Today's bets were all for $5.15 for a profit of $24.10 :) (comm deducted)

Totals so far (all of 3 days :rolleyes: )

16 smiles from 17 picks
$5 Ratchet Stakes +$49.02 (commission deducted)

How long this keeps up is anyone's guess however probably not too much longer as stugots suggests.

I will list tomorrows selections tonight for those interested (even for possible horses to leave out of your quaddies) however I may not be able to lay them myself as we are getting our flooring replaced and the computers will need to be off and out of the way. I don't know how to lay directly with Betfair tonight (or even if you can) when also requiring a certain price range.

[The Ocho]

Alright, after a stuff up with our flooring (the shop said it would be laid today but the installer said - Oh no, it needs to acclimatize first - FFS!!), the computer will be up all day today so, hopefully, the computer says "yes" for us.

By the way, does anyone know how the tattsbet/unibet ratings are formed and, more importantly, how many good or bad runs it takes for a horse's rating to change?

Today's picks should they be under $10 are below. The bot I'm using to lay these can't do it but it may be worth having less on the ones that are over $10. I could do this via liability however I don't want to risk the $30 minimum liability on a $2 shot. Maria staking could also be employed but, as previously mentioned, I don't want to be betting under the $5 minimum so I will stick with the ratchet staking for now - or until it goes A over T.

Doomben
2- 6
8- 9

Canterbury
5- 5
7- 2

Sale 1- 2
5- 4
6- 4
7- 2

Strathalbyn
2- 2
3- 10
4- 8
6- 5
8- 1

Narrogin
2- 1
4- 5
5- 2
7- 3
8- 10

Launceston
5- 6
7- 9

I can't see all these losing today. I just hope if there are any winners then they come at the very pointy end of the market and don't upset the apple cart too much.

[The Ocho]

I've changed race 4 at Strathalbyn to laying no 1. Both no 1 and no 8 are contenders but the bot I'm using can only bet on 1 horse per race and as No 8 is at $50 I have changed to no 1. Will I regret this? Probably yes as the last two picks have won.

[Rinconpaul]

Alright, after a stuff up with our flooring (the shop said it would be laid today but the installer said - Oh no, it needs to acclimatize first - FFS!!),

In defense of the flooring guy. If it's a timber floor it does need to acclimatise. In todays rush rush society I've seen floors go down too quickly only to shrink and leave unsightly cracks between the boards.
I'm feeling good about the current state of testing lay systems amongst forumites. For me Laying should be about finding the SHORTEST priced horse that's not going to Win, not the LONGEST!!
Your pattern recognition system is along those lines and I offer you every encouragement. I just feel that it may need a neural or some other form of filter to refine it.
Good luck RP

[Mark]

For me Laying should be about finding the SHORTEST priced horse that's not going to Win, not the LONGEST!!


At last someone's on the right track.

[The Ocho]

Thanks guys. My problem is not the acclimatization but the fact that they said it was going to be laid today. Therefore I am home and everything was moved out in readiness for it. They could have easily delivered it before today and have it ready for laying. It appears there was a "breakdown in communication" between the layer and the store - or so they say.

Speaking of laying yes I think you are right guys. The "system" isn't faring too well today so far - 3 wins and 3 losses. The 3 winners have been favourites however, having said that, there have been a number of selections that have been faves and have fallen over.

I'll have to have a bit more of a look into it.

[TheSchmile]

Hi T.O.

It might pay to leave out those coming down in class?

[The Ocho]

Hi TS. I'll have to look at that as well :oops: but I am trying to keep it as simples as possible.

I've had a look at price by itself and, since I have been testing it, the price range under $3 is a slight loser (this goes back to before I listed the selections here). This could also form part of the going down in class and therefore becoming relatively short priced faves.

I will therefore now make the price range between $3 and $10. This obviously rules out the short priced faves which are crucifying the method today. I know - knee jerk reaction but there you go.

Hopefully the method can pull itself out of the mire and claw its way back to profitability today. Here's hoping anyway.

Interesting side note - last Wednesday was a losing day. Mmmm

[TheSchmile]

No worries TO., whatever suits. :)

[SpeedyBen]

At last someone's on the right track.There is more than one way to lay a horse, as the apprentice jockey said.

[Lord Greystoke]

Lay many horses?

LG

[The Ocho]

It was going so great today after the rocky start and then, low and behold, in the last matched race a $9.60 shot frickin gets up and wins. Fair dinkum.

Full Market Name Selection Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Sale (AUS) 13th Mar / 13:00 R1 1113m 2yo 2. Markazy 5.19 9.6 5.19
AUS / Stra (AUS) 13th Mar / 13:43 R2 1600m Mdn 2. Grigio Now 5.24 3.75 5.24
AUS / Doom (AUS) 13th Mar / 14:00 R2 1110m CL3 6. Mishani Sinner 5.24 2.96 -10.29
AUS / Stra (AUS) 13th Mar / 14:18 R3 1100m Mdn 10. Sheez On Top 5.24 1.81 -4.24
AUS / Stra (AUS) 13th Mar / 14:53 R4 2050m Hcap 1. Beatboy 5.24 5 5.24
AUS / Sale (AUS) 13th Mar / 15:20 R5 1624m 3yo 4. High Esteem 5.24 2.68 -8.8
AUS / Sale (AUS) 13th Mar / 16:00 R6 1741m Hcap 4. Pass The Post 5.24 4.4 5.24
AUS / Stra (AUS) 13th Mar / 16:08 R6 1600m Hcap 5. Fraanikova 5.24 2.56 -8.17
AUS / Ngin (AUS) 13th Mar / 16:33 R2 1100m Mdn 1. Husslehoff 5.24 4.9 5.24
AUS / Sale (AUS) 13th Mar / 16:40 R7 1213m CL1 2. Bombsquad 5.24 4.3 5.24
AUS / Stra (AUS) 13th Mar / 17:28 R8 1350m Hcap 1. Knoxville 5.24 4.6 5.24
AUS / Doom (AUS) 13th Mar / 17:48 R8 1630m Hcap 9. Sweet Little Filly 5.24 5.32 5.24
AUS / Ngin (AUS) 13th Mar / 18:30 R5 1700m Hcap 2. Silver Minx 5.3 3.7 5.3
AUS / Ngin (AUS) 13th Mar / 19:45 R7 1190m CL1 3. Gotabay 5.35 5.99 5.35
AUS / Laun (AUS) 13th Mar / 20:05 R5 1220m CL1 6. Shipspotting 5.4 9.4 5.4
AUS / Ngin (AUS) 13th Mar / 20:25 R8 1190m Hcap 10. Distinctive Dane 5.46 9.6 -46.95

Today's bets got up to $5.46 for a loss of -$24.30 :( (comm deducted). If I had not laid the horses under 3 (all 4 of these won) I would have finished with +7.20 (after comm) even accounting for the big loser. There were 11 winning lays from 16 races.

Totals so far (all of 4 days)

27 smiles from 33 picks
$5 Ratchet Stakes +$24.72 (commission deducted)

[The Ocho]

Today's DART's for your delectable delight or a dastardly debacle.
There are only 9 possible selections but they have to be between $3 & $10.

Sunshine Coast
5- 12
7- 2

Wyong
5- 3

Ballarat
4- 6
6- 5
7- 8

Bunbury
2- 6
3- 5
10- 7

[The Ocho]

Yesterdays Darts were a debacle.

Full Market Name Selection Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Ball (AUS) 14th Mar / 14:45 R4 1600m Mdn 6. St Chloe 5.46 8.8 5.46
AUS / SCst (AUS) 14th Mar / 14:55 R5 1300m Mdn 12. Haven Queen 5.46 4.5 5.46
AUS / Bunb (AUS) 14th Mar / 15:15 R2 1100m 3yo 6. Sweet Maloo 5.46 8.6 5.46
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 14th Mar / 15:40 R5 1600m CL1 3. Scarlatti 5.46 2.94 5.46
AUS / Bunb (AUS) 14th Mar / 15:53 R3 1200m Mdn 5. Advantage Norman 5.46 6.8 -31.67
AUS / Ball (AUS) 14th Mar / 16:00 R6 2300m Hcap 5. Runaway Princess 5.46 7.6 5.46
AUS / Ball (AUS) 14th Mar / 16:40 R7 1000m Hcap 8. Pixie Eyes 5.46 7 -32.76

Loss for Thurs -38.91

Totals so far (5 days)

32 smiles from 40 picks
$5 Ratchet Stakes -14.19 (commission deducted)

I'm ending my attempt at this as it obviously is not up to scratch. It seems my Dart degree may need the D removed and replaced with an F!

Onto the next system to try and replace my trading money.

[TheSchmile]

Maybe flip from laying to backing T.O.?

[The Ocho]

Not sure about that TS.

I've had a look at today's picks and have slightly fine tuned it to include what (I believe is) you class filter although I'm probably not applying that properly.

So the picks are:

Pt Macquarie
3- 5
8 3

Swan Hill
3- 5
5- 1

Goulburn
5- 5

Geraldton
7- 4
8- 5

[Lord Greystoke]

Can work TO but the sample size will be significantly smaller = approx 1 selection per day.

Hardly worth getting out of bed for?

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

I know what you mean LG. I'm looking form something to replace my trading income and have no idea what I'm doing. :(

[TheSchmile]

Can work TO but the sample size will be significantly smaller = approx 1 selection per day.

Hardly worth getting out of bed for?

Cheers LG
Depends how much you're laying it for LG.

At $999 a lay like the great Michaelg, a handy profit could ensue?

[Lord Greystoke]

Fair point. Average Lay Price at jump = 10.125 (No qualifiers today)

LG

[stugots]

The Ocho, a mate with a more refined tatts ratings database than mine had a look at your idea, he wasn't over enthused but had a couple of suggestions to improve it which I can list here if you like?

[The Ocho]

The Ocho, a mate with a more refined tatts ratings database than mine had a look at your idea, he wasn't over enthused but had a couple of suggestions to improve it which I can list here if you like?
Thanks stugots. Please post away. Any suggestions are most welcome. :)

[stugots]

Here goes, little bit of work but might be worth tracking it for a while -

1. Non maiden races only
2. Odds $1.0 to $20.0 & bet to liability but exclude all favourites
3. 1000-2100m
4. 2-5 yold
5. Starts rank >=2
6. Days rank 1 to 6 & <84 days since last start
7. No Sundays

[The Ocho]

Thanks for that stugots but I've lost interest in this particular one. Maybe someone else can monitor it?

[stugots]

I've got it setup to spit out selections each day, so time permitting will list here.

[stugots]

Just has a look at results for last 10 days, plenty of winners so will let this one lie.

[The Ocho]

Just has a look at results for last 10 days, plenty of winners so will let this one lie.
Another one bites the dust!

Sorry to hear that stugots. Oh well, on to the next thing. ;)