Saturday Lays

[Mark]

Time permitting I will start a new thread for Saturday's only.
Going on past results I'm envisaging around 20 lays per meeting, Syd, Melb, & Bris, with a 95% strike rate. There will be a range of prices from very short to very long.
Start bank $1000 and laying SP to lose $30.

[The Ocho]

Thanks Mark. I'm looking forward to it.

[michaelg]

Good luck, Mark.

[jose]

Ditto above both posts Mark.

[Vortech]

Putting it all on the line Mark in preparation for the TC Sandra that might swing from its southly course into the SE Corner.

[Mark]

Putting it all on the line Mark in preparation for the TC Sandra that might swing from its southly course into the SE Corner.

Yes, I can feel it bearing down on my place.

[Vortech]

Sorry for going off topic here.... but I've never layed a bet before but starting to take some interest.

I have going at the moment with a bookmaker a bonus $100 bet which I placed on a golfer @ $34.00 to win the Masters.

Should I be smart and invest some coin now on laying the same golfer to get a win win situation?

I still follow the lay rules Saturday races, lay every runner that has won less than 1 in 6, provided they have had at least 10 starts, and horses that are still maidens after 10 starts or more with much interest just on paper and it performs quite well too.

[Mark]

SR1 - 7
SR4 - 2,4,9,11
SR5 - 1,5,8,9
SR6 - 1,3,11
SR7 - 5
SR8 - 4,5

MR2 - 1,2,3,7
MR4 - 1,7,8
MR6 - 5,6,9,11
MR7 - 2,9,11
MR8 - 5,11
MR9 - 1,3

BR2 - 1,3,7,11,12
BR3 - 8,10
BR4 - 9,10
BR5 - 1,2,3,5,6,7,8......All but the fav!!!
BR6 - 1,5,6,7,14
BR7 - 2,3,9,15,16
BR8 - 2
BR9 - 1,5,6,9,13,14,16,20

That's it for this week.

[SpeedyBen]

Sorry for going off topic here.... but I've never layed a bet before but starting to take some interest.

I have going at the moment with a bookmaker a bonus $100 bet which I placed on a golfer @ $34.00 to win the Masters.

Should I be smart and invest some coin now on laying the same golfer to get a win win situation?

I still follow the lay rules Saturday races, lay every runner that has won less than 1 in 6, provided they have had at least 10 starts, and horses that are still maidens after 10 starts or more with much interest just on paper and it performs quite well too.It would be smart to lay off some of your bet to ensure a profit provided that BF are betting on the event and that the price is somewhere in the vicinity of $34.

[SpeedyBen]

Sorry for going off topic here.... but I've never layed a bet before but starting to take some interest.

I have going at the moment with a bookmaker a bonus $100 bet which I placed on a golfer @ $34.00 to win the Masters.

Should I be smart and invest some coin now on laying the same golfer to get a win win situation?

I still follow the lay rules Saturday races, lay every runner that has won less than 1 in 6, provided they have had at least 10 starts, and horses that are still maidens after 10 starts or more with much interest just on paper and it performs quite well too.
Apologies also for going off topic but where is the easiest place to see the last 10 run info?

[TheSchmile]

SR1 - 7
SR4 - 2,4,9,11
SR5 - 1,5,8,9
SR6 - 1,3,11
SR7 - 5
SR8 - 4,5

MR2 - 1,2,3,7
MR4 - 1,7,8
MR6 - 5,6,9,11
MR7 - 2,9,11
MR8 - 5,11
MR9 - 1,3

BR2 - 1,3,7,11,12
BR3 - 8,10
BR4 - 9,10
BR5 - 1,2,3,5,6,7,8......All but the fav!!!
BR6 - 1,5,6,7,14
BR7 - 2,3,9,15,16
BR8 - 2
BR9 - 1,5,6,9,13,14,16,20

That's it for this week.
Some really interesting picks Mark.

Thanks for adding some spice to our Saturday!

[Mark]

7 scratchings which leaves us 61 lays (pretty close to my 20 per meeting guess).
I will also set a limit of $100. ie not laying 100/1 +.

SpeedyBen, last 10 can be found here.....http://formguide.cyberhorse.com.au/

[Vortech]

My simple approach uses an elimination method first.

Then out of the remaining horses they must be a particular rating from R&S.

Flemington Quad

Race 1 - 2,3,13
Race 2 - 1,3,4,7,12
Race 3 - 1,3,7
Race 4 - 4,7,10

I sometimes when time permits like to throw in the selections from the tipsters in the tipping competition. Might be some hidden knowledge on a particular horse.

[Mark]

Late update....have dropped SR7 - 5.

[SpeedyBen]

7 scratchings which leaves us 61 lays (pretty close to my 20 per meeting guess).
I will also set a limit of $100. ie not laying 100/1 +.

SpeedyBen, last 10 can be found here.....http://formguide.cyberhorse.com.au/Thanks Mark. It's ages since I looked at the Cyberhorse site. They are obviously survivors.

[Mark]

Isn't it amazing what happens when you go public.

11 winning races in a row and then bang bang bang etc 5 losers in the next 6.

3 of which I would label long term losers.

55 lays for 5.5 losers = 90% & a loss of $23.46.

Bank $976.54.

See you next week.

[macs]

Early days Mark.

[beton]

Isn't it amazing what happens when you go public.

11 winning races in a row and then bang bang bang etc 5 losers in the next 6.

3 of which I would label long term losers.

55 lays for 5.5 losers = 90% & a loss of $23.46.

Bank $976.54.

See you next week.
If it is any consolation, today was the first day my bot (laying) has stopped at the stoploss. It has lost many times before but not reached the stoploss. Yesterday nearly got there but crawled back for a small loss.

[Mark]

Gold Coast & Bendigo.....give me strength.

SR1 2-3-5-6
SR3 2-7
SR5 5-10-11
SR7 1-5-11
SR8 1-8

GCR1 3-6-11-12-14
GCR2 4-6
GCR3 1-11
GCR4 3-8-9-12-13
GCR6 1-9-11
GCR7 3-11-12-15-17-18
GCR8 15

BR1 1-4
BR2 1-4-8
BR3 4-7-13
BR4 4-8-11-13
BR6 2-3-5-6-7-10
BR7 1-3-10-11-14
BR8 10
BR9 1-3-4-6-13-18

Lay to lose $30 @ <101
c/o bank $976.54

[Mark]

Missed one.

SR4 1

Hopefully it won't come back to bite me.

[Vortech]

I have SR4 H1 rated heavily on top. Just wondering how you concluded to lay it? Understand if you have some magical formula you wish not to disclose.

[Mark]

Win, lose or draw, will reveal after the race.

[Mark]

Going well so far.....

[Mark]

Ignore this thread, obviously I don' have enough time to post these properly. Just before the race I noticed that SR3 4 should have been a lay. It ran as fav and of course got beat. I can't include it in the results.

[jose]

Chin up Mark.
At last you got the BP'd horse in race 4 beat for us.

[Mark]

Well I hope you've all learnt a very important lesson these last 2 weeks.

Never lay 1 out, or 2 out or even 3,4,5 out, lay the lot.

Never take the word of a friend unless you've researched what they're telling you. My alleged mate insisted I add first uppers to my list, and well you saw how they went today. Took the cream well and truly off the top. There were no less than 5 winners that I would not have given extra attention to. (Add back $30 for each winner !!!)

Never publicise something that has been making you money. There's no forum curse but it does make you wonder.

Tread very warily when the Saturday meeting is not a real city meeting.

Today's loss for the record was $85.97 which put a dent in my bookmaking profits. With only 5 favs winning today it should have been huge, oh well.

Vortech, SR4 1, never back a horse with bar plates on (as Jose alluded to). They are a last resort for horses who have major, MAJOR foot problems.

[UselessBettor]

Never lay 1 out, or 2 out or even 3,4,5 out, lay the lot.

Disagree. But its not for you as its as hard coming up with a profitable laying method as it is a betting method. Your niche is laying the field.


Never take the word of a friend unless you've researched what they're telling you. My alleged mate insisted I add first uppers to my list, and well you saw how they went today. Took the cream well and truly off the top. There were no less than 5 winners that I would not have given extra attention to. (Add back $30 for each winner !!!)

Agree. Test everything yourserlf.


Never publicise something that has been making you money. There's no forum curse but it does make you wonder.

Agreed. Why take the chance.


Tread very warily when the Saturday meeting is not a real city meeting.

Today's loss for the record was $85.97 which put a dent in my bookmaking profits. With only 5 favs winning today it should have been huge, oh well.

Laying long shots today was very profitable for me even though only 5 favs won in your races. There are many ways to profit on the punt and the lesson should be to stick to what works for you.

[mattio]

It was another big day for favourites today overall (TAB faves) with around 40% getting up. TAB faves in the $2.00 - $2.90 have been on a tear the past week so I expect a losing run is coming.

[Vortech]

Thats because the field sizes were smaller than average

[Mark]

Disagree. But its not for you as its as hard coming up with a profitable laying method as it is a betting method. Your niche is laying the field.


Agree. Test everything yourserlf.


Agreed. Why take the chance.


Laying long shots today was very profitable for me even though only 5 favs won in your races. There are many ways to profit on the punt and the lesson should be to stick to what works for you.

UB, my learning a lesson post was pretty much tongue in cheek. There are many ways to win and we can't be good at all of them. I'll stick to what I know in future.

[Mark]

It was another big day for favourites today overall (TAB faves) with around 40% getting up. TAB faves in the $2.00 - $2.90 have been on a tear the past week so I expect a losing run is coming.

I only (usually) bet on the 3 main meetings, Syd, Melb, & Bris. Yesterday only 5 of 25 for favs which is an excellent result for layers of the full field.

[mattio]

Thats because the field sizes were smaller than averageActually it has been a peak in the trend as the last 7 days has seen a 45% S/R in that price bracket with the long term everage being 36%. The overall favourites S/R the last 7 days has been 37%, the $3.00-$3.99 bracket is slightly down on the average but all other price brackets are above their long term average.

[stugots]

Yeah my longshots have been basically slaughtered the last week & a half, but as always the tide will turn...but sooner rather than later would be good, enoughs enough & all that;)