beton
4th May 2013, 10:42 PM
Opening prices as an indicator of value.
The tote win prices is a very good judge of the finish. Year in year out it produces results that are true to the individual rankings chances. In the case of the starting fav the SP produces a result that is almost even less the TAB take and breakage.
The winner is in the top 4-5 lines of betting. It is also in the top 5 prepost. and in the bookie's openers. However the order is the thing that eludes us.
Much has been written and researched using the SP as a guide to find placing horses and value in them. The trouble with this is that many people do this and programs have been written and in use to capitalise on any overlay.
The thing with the SP is that it is not finalised until long after the race has started. I consider the fav SP as the best indicator for value in the rest of the field. It is the best indicator for the fav when odds on. Odds on - sit on.
Prepost is computer generated and has been shown as too erratic. So that leaves Ratings which you generate yourself or are freely available or purchased. These in general are a rehash of what shows up in the betting. My apologies to those that rate and win, I dip my hat to you. And it leaves the openers ( and the bookies prices after they have settled)
CP has said that in the past Mark Read openers were a country mile above the pack. But this needed being with IAS. There is concern with the continuity of the same standard.
I have decided that the bookies openers are the place to start on this exercise. This calls for a representative sample (a year if possible) of bookies prices and the resulting tote prices. This will allow me to see how many shortened and won, how remained top ranked and how the others faired. I think that there will be more value in the other rankings. It will allow me to cross reference to the final result and see if there is any value.
Longwinded but I wanted to explain myself before my request.
Has anybody have a list of openers and tote results? I would love a copy to save time. I will share any findings. Similarly I will appreciate any comments responding to this. You can send direct wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au
Thanks Beton
The tote win prices is a very good judge of the finish. Year in year out it produces results that are true to the individual rankings chances. In the case of the starting fav the SP produces a result that is almost even less the TAB take and breakage.
The winner is in the top 4-5 lines of betting. It is also in the top 5 prepost. and in the bookie's openers. However the order is the thing that eludes us.
Much has been written and researched using the SP as a guide to find placing horses and value in them. The trouble with this is that many people do this and programs have been written and in use to capitalise on any overlay.
The thing with the SP is that it is not finalised until long after the race has started. I consider the fav SP as the best indicator for value in the rest of the field. It is the best indicator for the fav when odds on. Odds on - sit on.
Prepost is computer generated and has been shown as too erratic. So that leaves Ratings which you generate yourself or are freely available or purchased. These in general are a rehash of what shows up in the betting. My apologies to those that rate and win, I dip my hat to you. And it leaves the openers ( and the bookies prices after they have settled)
CP has said that in the past Mark Read openers were a country mile above the pack. But this needed being with IAS. There is concern with the continuity of the same standard.
I have decided that the bookies openers are the place to start on this exercise. This calls for a representative sample (a year if possible) of bookies prices and the resulting tote prices. This will allow me to see how many shortened and won, how remained top ranked and how the others faired. I think that there will be more value in the other rankings. It will allow me to cross reference to the final result and see if there is any value.
Longwinded but I wanted to explain myself before my request.
Has anybody have a list of openers and tote results? I would love a copy to save time. I will share any findings. Similarly I will appreciate any comments responding to this. You can send direct wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au
Thanks Beton