Ratings2Win Profitable Favourites - Is it possible?

[Michal]

There is always a debate that is raging somewhere in the world right now on this topic.

Can you make money from betting favourites?

Most professional punters do just that. And for good reason.





There is scope to bet decent money across many agencies without affecting the price as much as a decent go would be on a long shot.
Market reaction or lack off is easier to recognize with the liquidity
Market is the most correct barometer of horses chances
There are some big negatives as well.

Once the fave is known the price generally slides
You have to sit there all day and watch, with races 5 min or even less apart that can be really bad for your kidneys! Once you identify a favorite then you have to execute the bet in all that short time.
One way to improve your chances is to go through all the races and eliminate all the horses that shouldn’t be favourites. That will leave you with a short list that is manageable. You then concentrate on that list.

The answer is that YES it can be done, You will need to run some sort of software or manual method to eliminate those selections that are unsuitable and you should be left with a few good horses every day! Waiting for these pre-selected bets is much easier to manage and bet then just a plain list of all horses.

Of course the issue is; what do you use to qualify the selections? Well, I would say that RATINGS coupled with a few select form filters are your best chances. There is a good reason to use ratings, firstly they qualify the horse’s chance against all others in a race and secondly they are hopefully a little unique and not available to everyone under the sun like the general form is.
Form is important and when used properly can eliminate horses that would otherwise qualify especially for extreme situations. EG horse rising 10kg in weight or something like that, while this may or may not be a factor I would suggest that you research such issues and make your form rules accordingly.

Before I get shouted down, I can offer some proof across several thousand selections over the last 3+ years. And I have attached the spreadsheet to this post. The prices are based on better of NSW/SP.

What’s more we have been giving away the selections for FREE, (some of you already visit for them) live each morning for the last 5 months. I thought that it would be great to post the selections here and see how it goes against the dreaded forum curse for a few months.

So far in the live period of 5 months we have
Selections 419 (just under 3 per DAY)
Strike rate 47.5%
- Profit on turnover +3.34% NSW TOTE ONLY using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 20.5%
- Profit on turnover +6.39% ISP (average closing fixed price available on the internet) using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 18.5%
- Profit on turnover +8.47% NSW/SP using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 16%
- Profit on turnover +11.39% BestTote/SP/ISP using flat bet with a Maximum bank risk of only 16%, (BestTote/SP/ISP is what we consider the best case scenario, this could be achievable for those many that use Betfair and fixed odds and best of best and similar products to improve the return)

For those that want to bet proportional, then a real scenario is $5000 bank, 4% takeout, profit $4136 or 7.56% POT just at NSW/SP with Maximum bank risk at 27%. Nice and safe!

So is it possible? Here you have it, it seems it’s not only possible; it’s sustainable and above all REALISTIC with not only the possible bet size you can have but more importantly based on a solid sample of several thousand selections!


These Selections were created with Ratings2Win Axis software using a single system.

To use these selections only bet when they are SP favourite and if the tracks are Good or Dead. If you use other then SP to determine the favourite then your results may vary but should be about the same in the long run!

[Michal]

R2W FREE SELECTIONS
(Best results - Only G/D tracks + Selections are SP fave.)

26/05/2013 - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
13:00 STRAT 2 1 Finniss Power
13:05 CRANB 5 4 Koritsi Mou
13:45 DEVS 4 2 Vedo
14:10 STRAT 4 8 Terrapinna
16:28 CASTE 8 1 Emdee

[Lord Greystoke]

2 tremendous posts Michal. Thank you for these.

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

great post. This forum is starting to come back alive with some really good information.

[Michal]

I should have noted that the spreadsheet contains in excess of 2600 selections with a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP.

[stugots]

Just like to make an observation & I am not offering an opinion on the above one way or another -

The first & foremost issue I consider when deciding on an punting approach is whether or not it is profitable over time, & while the results detailed in the spreadsheet do show a profit, they also show a break even period of about 2 years, chart attached.

[kiwi]

Was there a profit, am i missing something, personally i would avoid top favourites the POT just isn't high enough unless you are your turnover is much higher that the average punter.

[Michal]

Stugots,

Thanks for the graph and your comments.

Kiwi, all 4 years in the sample show profit, but as Stugots pointed out the middle 2 were thin.
2010 11.80%
2011 0.38%,
2012 1.81%
2013 8.5% (With May nearly over those figures are also out of date (we update once at the end of the month)

A couple of things are worth a mention in regards to Stugots comment;



If someone started using the system at any time during it’s test they would have never gone astray or even close, that by itself is quite a positive factor. The end is always in profit from where ever you would have started!


The divs used are easily improved upon, so a reasonable POT could have been easily achieved above that which is shown by someone using just a little initiative.


The system is a bulk method, there are many sub-systems that could be produced from it that would have greatly improved the performance (46.4% is a fantastic starting point!!!) It’s not something that we want to do but the option is certainly there.
Something else that is also worth commenting on; for us at R2W punting is about a long term successful venture, the reality is that wins come in spits and spats and not in a form of a weekly scheduled income.

I realise that this statement will bring a foray of those that make regular money and all that. The issue is perception vs reality. The reality is that there will always be variance which means that NO-ONE makes a steady weekly income from punting that is always the same. They make income and win but if it’s to be properly examined you will find that they win but not in a steady stream. I’m not saying it’s not possible as anything is possible in this game but for us the mere mortals the reality is, that variance in the results means you’ll get good-and-bad weeks, months and even years!

The truth is that most punters are unable or unwilling to accept variance or just plain don’t even know what result variance is and how to measure it. People still think that their system/method has a mathematical dispensation and variance doesn’t apply to them, that is, until they run smack into it! However they will usually call this event bad luck or forum curse or the punting gods being against them and move on without learning a thing. Things like results variance, bank risk and their threshold and good bank management. The sad fact is that their testing and research usually involves a few dozen to a few hundred selections which is way too small a sample and then they wonder why their system/method fails.

That brings me to a point, how many punters would have started with this system and discarded it as a no good thing? Unfortunately judging from the many posts on many forums majority of those that try to make a profit from the punt would have been on to the ‘next best thing’ the moment that the results would have became uncomfortable. How many have thrown out the ‘grail’ they are searching for because they can’t discipline themselves and apply the most important factor to their punting ; CONSISTENCY! Actually, that is not quite true, they are consistently inconsistent.

Hopefully what you’ll learn from our contributions to this forum is not only that we have a great range of products but that we are realistic and transparent in what and how we present our results across everything that we do. Something that this industry is NOT known for! This includes a realistic approach to punting which is based on proven, professional and factual findings.

[darkydog2002]

Too true Michal.

[stugots]

Agree with most of what you say Michal - 'consistency' is one of the many keys required to squeeze a $ out of this game.

[Michal]

27/05/2013
12:40 BENLL 4 11 Delightful Abode
13:03 NAMIN 1 1 Belfrey Bat
13:50 BENLL 6 8 Rasmeyaa
15:00 BENLL 8 5 First Course
16:12 BENLL 10 1 Dark Arrow

[Vortech]

Some really nice results

The interesting thing is if someone where to have started using this system around Jan 2011 through to Aug 2012 you would have a sufficient loss if I read correctly. How does one continue with a run of outs with any confidence it will swing upwards again?

I'm always curious Michal on what methods you might use to check the viability of a system. You are correct with the market price being the best indication of the true chances of a horse. With slight altercations you can make profit with a lot of work.

A major problem I found with many ratings assessed against large pools in Metro races is they often show limited advantages (rated price vs market price). Then you have smaller pools with some value but harder to assess races due to limited form of horses.

This is where I find the best to be a combination of smaller pools but races with horses of a min 5 starts of more.

Keep up the good informative posts

[Michal]

Significant loss is a subjective opinion Vortech but it’s a great point to bring up. I think that it largely depends on the expectation of the user. The sad situation is that most punters have rose-coloured glasses and are not at all prepared for the reality that sets in. Especially when punters realities are inflated by small sample (boutique) systems that are sold or produced which create unrealistic expectations. We can advise and teach, which is what we do for the benefit of our clients, but at the end, if one is serious about profits and success then one must realise that this is a long term game, always has been.

Just like the stock market, whose returns long term have been solid, would have seen someone that started just before the GFC still licking their wounds today, and someone that bought after and experienced only the recovery must be thinking that this is the easiest money ever. Both of these oposing results are NOT indicative of the long-term performance.

Perseverance, and the lack there of, is one of the reasons that most don’t succeed. You only have to look at the number of posts each month that brings something ‘new and exciting’ to the forum, generally based on a small sample size, to have it disappear and replaced next month by something ‘new and exciting’. In fact it was you, Vortech that did the work of collecting a huge load of systems here, how many good ideas laid abandoned in that lot?

Let’s address that loss:
If someone bet using this system over the period that Vortech quoted using the odds that we show (which are conservative) then the POT is still only -1.53%.



Take a scenario of 10,000 bank and a 1% investment using our odds (NSW/SP) POT -1.53%, Profit - $2,005.00, Highest bank risk 40%


Take a scenario of 10,000 bank and a 1% investment using better of BT/SP/ISP POT 1.40%, Profit $1,837.00, Highest bank risk 25%
The above profit was achieved using BT/SP/ISP which is comparable to likes of Best of Best, Betfair prices or fixed price shopping, in other words a dividend achievable with a little initiative. In fact the difference between the loss and win scenarios was as a result of a simple 10c improvement on the average win dividend.

Im going to go out on a limb, and say that the term ‘significant loss’ was only a figure of speech, or based on just a glance over the results. And that is perfectly OK; because Vortech is probably right or not far, from what a mediocre user of the system might have been thinking around this time, regardless of the REAL RESULTS or the results that could be achieved with price initiative. As you probably well know, most people don’t keep accurate results so most punters perception would be that this is going nowhere!

Reasons to persevere
That’s a great topic of a new thread by itself Vortech, I would like to know what others make their decisions on, there is always something new to learn, but to answer your question;

System is Not under-pined by a single or a few large winners,
System has a Bank risk threshold within realistic norm
Large sample in the results over time
System is based on just one major idea (ratings based) + horse being SP1 and a few others which have insignificant bearing on the results to trim the extremes in weight and distance rises and so on.
System is partly based on the best long-term predictor of winners – the market. Isolating those that should be favourites and betting them when they are is a great way that one can utilise favourites to make profit.
We check and correct all the errors we find for all tab meetings in terms of: race times, distances, track conditions, in-running positions, finishing margins and others, there are dozens of errors each day. So I have confidence in the ratings produced. I know this sounds like a sales pitch, but you ask what would propel me to continue, confidence in the ratings with rock solid performance over long-term, created by my program, would be a major factor personally.
The above also addresses the issues that you raised, this system is for all races Metro, Prov, Country or Rural tracks, and concentrating on favourites ensures that the prices and profits remain REAL.
I do have to agree with you, that it is easier to find value in the non metro circuit for someone whose bet size is reasonable, in my opinion it’s simply for the reason that the big mathematical/computerised syndicates can’t be bothered to operate there due to pool sizes and a smaller punter can take advantage of the corporate bookmaker prices. However with the ever improving computer knowledge and usage of the mainstream punters, this is also shrinking.

At the end let me just finish with this, creating this system was not a hard work at all, in-fact there were a few systems I could have gone with that produced similar results and sample size. Something that is echoed by our client, with R2W Axis the edge is just easier to find.

[Michal]

28/05/2013
12:00 GEESY 1 6 Shooting Sally
13:00 TVILL 1 4 The Paparazzi

[darkydog2002]

Thnks Michal.

[SpeedyBen]

Michal
You may be interested in an exercise I did with your SRSS results for May. By using the much neglected exacta bet type I increased your profit for the month by 170%. I used VICTAB prices to select the second exacta leg in each case. Your second and third rated horses in each race probably would produce an even better result but I don't have access to those.
I have changed a column heading in the attached s/sheet to Ëxacta and showed a comparison with your win prices.
All the best
Speedy

[PaulD01]

Michal
You may be interested in an exercise I did with your SRSS results for May. By using the much neglected exacta bet type I increased your profit for the month by 170%. I used VICTAB prices to select the second exacta leg in each case. Your second and third rated horses in each race probably would produce an even better result but I don't have access to those.
I have changed a column heading in the attached s/sheet to Ëxacta and showed a comparison with your win prices.
All the best
Speedy

Hi SpeedyBen

Thank you for your innovative post. So as to explain the strategy that is used to bet the SRA selections contained in the spreadsheet you attached to your post, we do not bet or recommend betting at level stakes. All recommendations made to clients are staked in proportion to our r2w$ value assessment to collect 4% of your bank.

You are correct in identifying the additional value that exists in exotic pools however the way in which we go about that is a matter probably best discussed in a separate thread.

If you require anything specific that we might be able to provide, we would be more than happy to assist.

[Lord Greystoke]

To use these selections only bet when they are SP favourite and if the tracks are Good or Dead. If you use other then SP to determine the favourite then your results may vary but should be about the same in the long run! Michal, do you by some chance have the place dividends for the previous data set you attached, using the same format?


Cheers LG

[Michal]

LG,

The system printout is specific for our display purposes, which is to show win only. The place portion uses NSW tab because there are no SP place divs. It shows a loss of 1.41% POT if that is what you are asking.

Michal

[Lord Greystoke]

For those that want to bet proportional, then a real scenario is $5000 bank, 4% takeout, profit $4136 or 7.56% POT just at NSW/SP with Maximum bank risk at 27%. Nice and safe!

HI Michal, just to clarify.. are you able to source the individual NSW Place dividends which equate to the overall loss of 1.41% and list them to the RHS of the WinDiv field? It would help me assess the usefulness of your good results here with regards my own systems, strategies i.e. as a base/bulk method = starting point



Cheers LG

[Michal]

LG,

Yes I am able to to do that, in-fact Axis has the ability to use any of the 3 totes as the div, plus Best tote and middle tote for anyone wanting to match their betting activity against obtainable corporate products.

You can contact us through Ozmium and I will then email you the printout when Im doing the end of month consolidation. We are more then happy to help those that genuinely want to consider Axis, its features and how it can best fit in with their betting methods and budget.

It should be noted, that we offer these Free system selections to showcase the programs ability, the actual systems showcased will be replaced with a new one from time to time in order to be fair to those that have actually purchased our product.

Michal

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks Michal. All understood, will do.

Cheers LG

[Michal]

29/05/2013
12:25 BENDI 2 4 Wells
13:28 BALAK 3 7 You Rock
14:20 BENDI 5 2 Police Gazette
14:43 BALAK 5 2 Umaluka
15:25 BELPK 3 8 True Storm

[Vortech]

Do you take into consideration the starting price vs your rated price?

[PaulD01]

Do you take into consideration the starting price vs your rated price?

Hi Vortech

The results are based on the best of SP (official starting price) and NSW tote. FYI, tests have shown that top fluctuation would deliver an additional 4-5% increase in POT.

[Vortech]

Ok - What I was trying to see is if over time the starting price or avg dividend dropped by 50c this would affect the long-term profitability of the system.

If long-term your system is showing around 45% strike rate and many of horses in the future are priced $1.50 (underlay) as most ratings people say, would you consider only those over the assessed price?

[PaulD01]

Ok - What I was trying to see is if over time the starting price or avg dividend dropped by 50c this would affect the long-term profitability of the system.

If long-term your system is showing around 45% strike rate and many of horses in the future are priced $1.50 (underlay) as most ratings people say, would you consider only those over the assessed price?

Hi Vortech

You raise a valid question however it would be almost impossible mathematically for the current average dividend which stands at $2.25 (5/3/10 to 28/5/13 - 2,742 sample size) and a long term strike rate which is currently 46.4% to move downward towards an average dividend of $1.75 (50c drop) without the propensity for the strike rate to move upwards to around 60% and in doing so maintain the same POT of 4.61%.

As stated in my last post, it is more than feasible to expect that you can improve the average dividend to around $2.34-$2.36 by obtaining top fluctuation. Of course having the ability to generate these or other potential system qualifiers well in advance of the race is a significant asset.

Hope that helps.

[Vortech]

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how it is deterimined to be mathematically impossible - even in a separate thread.

Is this determined by proportional betting tests, sample size or winners

[PaulD01]

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how it is deterimined to be mathematically impossible - even in a separate thread.

Is this determined by proportional betting tests, sample size or winners

Hi Vortech

It is not determined by proportional betting tests, sample size or winners, but rather the fact that Australian horse racing in particular demonstrates and has done so for decades, a strong Favorite Long-shot Bias. This means that horses (in particular at the shorter end of the market) at the dividends that we are talking about win almost nearly as often as their probability implies. So $1.75 chances win around 55% of races v their implied 57% probability, whereas $4.00 chances win only ~20% of races contested which in turn implies true odds of $5.00. As the dividend on offer increases, the bias against them magnifies even further.

I am interested to understand though why you think it might be possible that true $2.15 chances (consistent with the sample and strike rate) might suddenly be less effective to the point where their odds on offer at starting price might skew to the point that implies their chance of winning was more like a $2.82 chance.

[Michal]

30/05/2013
12:00 SALE 2 11 Distant Dreams
13:40 PENOL 3 5 Barrier Boys

[Michal]

31/05/2013
12:53 TAMWT 2 11 Magic Glenyce
13:53 QUEAN 4 10 Rubykin

[Michal]

Due to the wet weather in May there were less then the usual number of selections. Average 2 per day.

The performance was:

WIN - Bets 67 winners 30 strike rate 44.8% POT 2.99% POSITIVE OUTCOME (NSW/SP)
PLC - Bets 67 winners 54 strike rate 80.1% POT 6.30% POSITIVE OUTCOME (NSW TOTE)

These selections are generated by our R2W Axis program from a single system.

[Michal]

'PROFITABLE FAVOURITES' SYSTEM SELECTIONS (Long-Term Results)

Results:
Cumulative Number of Bets - 2,748
(2 per day on average)
Strike Rate - 46.4%
Positive POT 4.63% (best of NSW/SP).
See the results file updated monthly to May 2013. (attached)

Details: These selections only become bets if they are SP favourite and are on either Good & Dead tracks. Expect 2 selections per day on average. Uses several of our best performing ratings and settings as filters.

Please note: In accordance with normal statistical variance (even with such a great strike rate) there has still been 10 losers in a row contained within the sample number). See our 'Learning to bet like a Pro' articles for a better understanding on this topic.

If you disregard the SP favourite rule, the system will have 4221 selections. A strike rate of 37% and close to a break even result (-1.3% POT at best of NSW/SP). If you have the ability to obtain better prices such as top fluctuation or better, you would be in profit using this strategy.

These results are created by our R2W Axis program from a single system, these selections are offered free to showcase the capabilities of the program and its rating and not to sell this system. It will be replaced with a new one from time to time. If you would like to know more then don't hesitate to contact us.

[Michal]

01/06/2013
11:35 NEWCA 1 3 Teenager
13:35 NEWCA 4 3 Loyalist
14:00 BELPK 1 1 Ignition
17:30 ADELR 6 3 Adynata
19:22 SCUSH 5 7 Real Dreams

[Michal]

02/06/2013
13:40 MOWBR 4 14 Geegees Velvet
16:42 KALGL 4 1 Donnyonetime

[Vortech]

Michal - I'm very interested in your findings.

I understand you only look for favourites on Good/Dead tracks.
Any other prime filters
I've running some tests using your ideas from 1999 to 2006. Trying to get approximately 5000 selections together.

I'll let you know how I go and if there is any reflections to your approach.

[Michal]

Hi Vortech,

I think that I stated previously in this thread, the main rule is based on rating consensus. That is the prime filter. There are few others that really eliminate the extremes and other then the Good/Dead track have no real bearing overall on the outcome. We might be talking about less then a hundred or so selections eliminated all together, so just a few percent.

In regards to the missing wet portion of the system; we use the same method for Slow and Heavy tracks. It still produces 700 selections for a 42.5% win SR and a positive POT if you can obtain a better price then the NSW/SP that we use. At NSW/SP it looses 2.21%.

What I have done with it, is applied one additional filter to make it into a great little system. That one rule is painfully obvious for a wet track system.

It just makes sense, when a horse is running on a wet track and he cops a hoof full of mud in his face, he isn't going to be too excited about continuing to run and what if he cops a few more? What about the sliding and interference .... I think I made my point. There is one horse that is pretty much immune to the mud slinging and interfearance at least.

The FRONT RUNNER !

Take any system that is failing in the wet, and only apply it to the front runners and you are more then likely have a winner providing that you have a logical method to begin with. At least that is what I find in Axis. But how do you find the front runner? What you need is an accurate and consistent way of measuring this and you are set.

Our R2W Axis has a few advantages over the standard form guide based in-running and one MAJOR difference.



We have the in-running positions for every TAB meeting in Australia so each horse and his past 20 starts has at least the settling position. So when we calculate our predicted in-running and our speed maps we are not relying on half completed data that the rest of Australian punters use.


The leader is not necessarily the horse that leads all the time. When we calculate horses PIR (position in running) it will vary from race to race, and while others look and can recognize the obvious leaders we have the ability to calculate who is likely to lead even if the field is full of back-markers!


Our PIR also creates speed maps that show horses initial likely velocity, in conjunction to his rail position and the rest of the field, so in a glance you can recognize who has the advantage and why a good leader in the outside gates is often undervalued by the market.
Anyway so applying our PIR (position in running) rank of one, and eliminating all the horses that are likely to cop mud in their face and interference on wet conditions we are able to produce a system with 48% SR and 9% POT. Applying the same to our already successful Dry favourite system increases the strike rate to 49.7% and 8.33% POT using our conservative NSW/SP divs.

You notice the correlation between the 2 systems is almost the same when taking this PIR into consideration, giving me confidence that the results are due to a pattern rather then a coincidence. In-fact I could combine them back together for a front running Favourite system and great success.

Unfortunately using last start settling position for instance, which is what most punters have, has absolutely no such results, and that is even with our complete settling position data.


Kind regards

[Vortech]

Its definitely a good product and one most should be interested in especially for taking that next step in their punting careers.

The challenge is to convince those that 50+ POT are not possible in this game long-term.

With the tools I have I'm not able to successfully generate results like yours. Not even close.

I would be interested in your product only time permits. Working full time as a certified Accountant coming up to end of financial year doesn't allow much time to even see if specific horses are the starting favourites yet along watch the races live.

Keep up the good work. You appear honest and genuine.

[Michal]

A nice result yesterday!

2 from 2 and $1.9 and $5.10 for SP favourites.

R2W FREE SELECTIONS
(Best results - Only G/D tracks + Selections are SP fave.)

03/06/2013
11:23 WODON 1 9 Pinpoint - R2W PROFIT FAVE WET
16:04 NORTH 3 1 Strike Two - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY

I have included the Wet system selection for today for extra interest and will do so from now on as the tracks are getting rain effected too much which reduces the selections in the Dry Fave system. So please disregard the G/D Tracks recomendation for the wet system and only confirm the selection is favourite.

If you want to know what the Wet Fave system is please read post 37

Finally, thanks Vortech, appreciate the comments, we have been getting a lot of positive feedback of late.

[Michal]

04/06/2013
12:18 TAREE 1 2 Pretty Uncanny - R2W PROFIT FAVE WET
12:25 MACKA 1 1 Oakfield Count - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
12:35 GEESY 2 7 Sky Host - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY

The wet system, for rain effected tracks has far less selections, it is harder to find these standouts on the less occurring wet tracks; as a result I only put it up as a matter of interest. If you are following these selections, please note the system names and ensure that you are following the right recommendations for best results before you commit to your bet.

R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY - Best results with G/D tracks and SP favourite
R2W PROFIT FAVE WET - Best results with SP favourite

[Michal]

05/06/2013
12:18 CANTE 1 6 Rastro - R2W PROFIT FAVE WET

[darkydog2002]

Your a brave man betting on Slow tracks Michal but good luck.

[Michal]

Thanks Darky, it was a good result yestrday

06/06/2013
11:00 GEESY 1 3 Princeton Miss - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
12:20 GOSFO 1 8 Natural Dancer - R2W PROFIT FAVE WET
13:10 GEESY 5 8 True Statement - R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
14:40 GOSFO 5 1 Tamariz - R2W PROFIT FAVE WET

[Michal]

07/06/2013
12:00 SWAN 1 3 Gemset - FAVE DRY
12:35 SWAN 2 14 Bobcat - FAVE DRY
13:00 IPSWI 2 1 Four Jays - FAVE DRY
14:03 GRAFT 6 1 Floral Insight - FAVE DRY
16:20 ACTON 8 2 Buffalo Chase - FAVE DRY

[Michal]

08/06/2013
11:35 FLEMI 2 1 Coins - FAVE DRY
13:50 KEMBL 4 4 Carbonite - FAVE DRY
15:45 KEMBL 7 1 We Have A Winner - FAVE DRY
16:24 KEMBL 8 1 Manowood - FAVE DRY
16:26 ROCKY 6 1 Top Rada - FAVE DRY

[darkydog2002]

Jut a question?
When you say DRY I assume you mean no bets on Dead /Slow /Heavy TC.
Is that correct?

Cheers
darky

[Michal]

Hi Darky,

For this exercise I consider Dry track to be Good or Dead track condition.



If the track is G/D and the horse is an SP fave its a selection, if it's "FAVE DRY" system


If the track is any condition and the horse is an SP fave its a selection, if it's "FAVE WET" system
The DRY and WET systems start with exactly the same rules, so if its a FAVE WET selection, it remains even if the track condition improves.

You can always use the TAB or Betfair to determine the favouritism although you may have slightly different result it should even out in the end to much the same. Just the same as late race scratchings might add horses to the selection list during the day, we obviously can't help that and can't keep updating our posts but with almost 50-50 chance the horse will win-loose it all pretty much just evens out in the end.


Post 40 was where we started adding the WET system and the rules are set out there as well.

Kind regards

[darkydog2002]

Hi Michal,
Thank you for your very clear post to me.
Cheers
darky

[Michal]

09/06/2013
11:30 ELWIC 1 2 Geegees Hot Hussie - FAVE DRY
11:50 SWAN 2 10 Rural Hunter - FAVE DRY
12:10 SAPCT 1 13 French Tarte - FAVE DRY
12:40 ELWIC 3 4 Acacia Bloom - FAVE DRY
13:05 PT AU 2 1 Grand Taj - FAVE DRY
15:10 CALOU 6 2 Endoy - FAVE DRY

[Michal]

Nice result yesterday. 4/5. or 5/6 based on the raw selections.

So far the forum curse is having no effect, as we are right on schedule with the strike rate and well over for the POT from the entire period of the live trial. The same applies for the substantially longer 5 month live trial on our website.

While the others are frantically searching for the next possible method, our well researched method grounded in a large enough sample continues to perform, because we have a real edge over the market here.

It's interesting to note the number of views on this thread based on the result of the previous day. When the result is good the views go up the next day when the result is not favorable the views go down.

This is a typical losing punter behavior.

To win, find a successful method and be consistent in what you do! Always!

10/06/2013
12:45 BALLN 1 6 Rosenet - FAVE WET
14:57 MORNI 6 2 Vizhaka - FAVE WET

[Michal]

11/06/2013
No selections

[Michal]

12/06/2013
12:00 SANHL 1 1 Samarmeteors - FAVE WET
13:28 WFARM 2 1 Mossn Time - FAVE WET

[Michal]

13/06/2013
13:55 TOOCN 3 2 Spent - FAVE DRY
14:50 NORTH 2 7 Kym Kym Kaboom - FAVE DRY

[Michal]

14/06/2013
13:28 MUSWE 3 1 Sumptuous - FAVE WET
14:20 BDSRT 4 2 Brilliant Rose - FAVE WET
15:05 GEESY 6 1 Forty Two Below - FAVE DRY

[Michal]

15/06/2013
12:55 ROSEH 2 1 Oompa Loompa - FAVE DRY
14:49 BELPK 2 5 Miss Halloween - FAVE DRY
18:42 TOOCN 4 1 Big Wheels - FAVE DRY

[Michal]

16/06/2013
11:35 GEESY 2 2 Couldnt See It
11:55 DEVS 1 6 Bon Bonito
12:10 GEESY 3 10 Drifting Cube
15:28 KALGL 2 1 Military Hero
15:40 DEVS 7 1 Relentless Pursuit

ALL DRY FAVE

[Michal]

17/06/2013
No selections

[Michal]

18/06/2013
11:00 GEESY 1 2 Newham
12:00 GEESY 3 3 Princeton Miss
13:28 KEMBL 3 12 Singing To Win
13:52 QUIRI 4 1 Tabliope
14:03 KEMBL 4 1 Magic Dallas

[Michal]

19/06/2013
13:00 BALAK 3 4 Edriguez - FAVE DRY
14:24 WELLI 5 6 Zero De Brave - FAVE WET

[Michal]

20/06/2013
13:35 ROCKY 3 5 Gunner Knox - FAVE DRY
14:03 PINJR 1 1 Our Life Of Reilly - FAVE DRY
14:08 BATHU 3 1 Upstacker - FAVE WET

[Michal]

21/06/2013
11:30 GEESY 1 12 Superb
12:35 GEESY 3 7 Aurum
13:10 GEESY 4 12 Midnight Rule
15:40 ACTON 7 3 Akoonah

[Michal]

22/06/2013
12:00 FLEMI 1 1 The Bowler - FAVE DRY
14:14 BELPK 1 1 Ihtsahymn - FAVE DRY
14:45 MORPI 5 6 Youre Discreet - FAVE WET
18:12 BROOM 6 2 Dempsey - FAVE DRY

[Michal]

23/06/2013
14:49 MUSWE 4 4 Nantucket Bay
14:57 KALGL 1 3 Firewhirl
17:31 CARNV 4 2 Dark Tryst
18:48 CARNV 6 3 Fine Equity

[darkydog2002]

Good to see your Handicapping for some of these out of the way places.
A lot of punters miss these to their detriment.
Cheers.

[Michal]

Hey Darky,

Thanks, your are right, the other point is that the pro circuit misses these because of the liquidity, which means that a smaller punter with a bet size under say $500 (remember we are betting the fave) has the ability to profit better from the less intelligence in these markets.

Of course you still have to get the winner!

Michal

[Michal]

25/06/2013
12:55 MACKA 1 3 Midnight Hustler
13:10 WERRI 5 1 Adapted
13:17 TAMWT 3 5 Ice Chiller
15:38 TAMWT 7 3 Servante

there were no selections on 24/06/2013

[Michal]

26/06/2013
12:43 EAGLE 2 11 Jolie Madeleine
13:35 MORPI 3 7 Edriguez
14:10 MORPI 4 12 Zipnotized
14:15 BELPK 1 10 Spin Da Wheels

[Michal]

27/06/2013
12:35 BENDI 4 7 Im Wicked
12:45 TOOCN 1 1 Dodging Eddie
13:55 TOOCN 3 3 Somnambulist
14:09 NORTH 1 6 Miss Halloween

[Michal]

28/06/2013
11:25 GEESY 1 7 Unique Assassin
12:18 ACTON 1 8 Tori Girl
12:53 ACTON 2 1 Rose Of Falvelon
13:10 GEESY 4 2 Christopherson

[Michal]

29/06/2013
12:45 CALOU 3 1 Agitate
13:00 MORPH 2 2 Our Miss Bossy
13:55 CALOU 5 1 Lennies Choice
14:22 MOONE 5 1 Mr Oceirin
15:30 FANNI 4 5 Battle Ready
16:59 CARNV 3 2 Kimberley Cowboy

[Michal]

30/06/2013
14:51 KALGL 1 3 Sarabi FAVE DRY

[Michal]

It has been a bit of a mixed bag this month. So lets tally up the totals and see what has happened this month and for the entire time we have posted these selections LIVE here.

Remember we are expecting a 46.4% strike rate and 4.6% POT as this is the base line from over 2700 selections of our DRY FAVE system.

June Figures: 56 bets 27 wins 48.2% strike rate and 10.93% POT
Since thread start: 67 bets 31 wins 46.3% strike rate and 5.18% POT


I know that we have been adding the WET FAVE selections and while that is not officially our test I'll add those figures to this as well.

Since thread start: 80 bets 37 wins 46.3% strike rate and 5.71% POT

Kind regards

[darkydog2002]

Good stuff.Keep them coming.

[Lord Greystoke]

I concur Darky. Remarkable stuff given that we are talking nearly 1 winner in every 2 selections.

Michal, can I ask... are you including only those that started SP Fav (as per your original rules) OR is this the lot?

Cheers LG

[Michal]

Hi LG,

These are the final selections, those that were SP favourite. The over all results have been slightly lower then expected. If you were to take them all (107 bets in June) then the strike rate is 35.5% but they loose 9% POT for this month which is down on the average which is 37% strike rate and -1.3% POT from 4200 selections.

HOWEVER
If you were to bet them proportionally then they lose just 3 cence on turnover based on SP/NSW, using a better pricing model (equivalent to Top Fluctuations, Best tote or Betfair) the pot jumps to 4.3%. Again that is this month.

I would not like to jump to conclusions here as this may be just a short term variance and making decisions based on a few selections (107 bets) is a sure fire way to loose the plot.

Also the results could vary for the Favourite systems depending on what you chose to use as the 'SP'; like betfair favourite or similar. Also late scratchings may add a few selections that were not posted live before the races. Unfortunately it also happens that we lose winners from our list because TC changes and they still win, so we can't claim them even though the bets went on before the TC change. Its all swings and roundabouts.

You say "Remarkable stuff given that we are talking nearly 1 winner in every 2 selections."
I still would like to impress upon people that even with these results we have had 6 outs in a row this month and 10 outs maximum historically. The maximum draw-down this month has been 9 units, and its currently at 8 units so the last few days have been rather trying. This is just a lesson on the reality of punting. It may be uncomfortable, but everyone has these, just some wont tell you about them !

We'll see how we go next month. Thanks for your comments; they are greatly appreciated.

[Michal]

Hi LG,

Thanks again for your post which prompted me to check the proportional betting results on the raw system output (without qualifying selections for favouritsm). In the post below I did the test on June selections (107 bets) and I wondered if the positive result is just a fluke or not.

Believe it or not I have never tested the raw output on proportional betting because when I constructed the system our program didn't have that function. I have however done so now and the results are surprising to say the least! Not only are they positive, but the number of selections increases from 2800 over all to 4300 over all and its completely reliant on Axis ratings and filters without any outside help from the market!

********************************************************
Selections 4300 (3.5 bets average per day)
Winners 1593
Strike rate 37%
Betting 1% of bank level stakes or to take out 1% proportionally
Level stake POT -1.31%
Proportional betting POT 1.51% Maximum run of outs 17, Max Bank draw-down 26% average draw down 8%

The above figures are based on NSW/SP just like all our figures we quote. Applying a better betting pricing model equivalent to betting Top fluctuation or Best tote or betting on betfair produces the following results.

Level stakes POT 2.10% Max Bank draw down 48% average 11%
Proportional betting POT 4.53% Max Bank draw down 23% average 9%
********************************************************
Increasing the take out from 1% to 2% proportionally exponentially increases the profits but it does so at the expense of raising the bank draw down to 41% however the real dollar profit increases due to the turn over.

There are several Betting scenarios that produce different outcomes, many of them push the envelope too far with bank risks too high for real life betting. I have written about this in another thread, without knowing the risks an incorrectly set betting method can destroy any system outcome due to unsustainable bank draw-down or under utilise the systems performance if the settings are too cautious. Lucky for our clients such information is available in the betting analyser for all subscription levels so they do not go in betting blind.

The proportional betting scenario shown above is a vanilla method used by most professional punters where the size of the bet varies based on the bank size and the horses dividend with the take out being ultra conservative at 1% of bank.


Kind regards

[Michal]

01/07/2013
11:47 ROSEH 1 3 Pitcrew FAVE WET
12:32 WAGGA 1 8 Gone Platinum FAVE WET

[Michal]

02/07/2013
No Selections

[Michal]

03/07/2013
12:00 CAULF 1 14 Pindan Pearl FAVE DRY
12:53 WFARM 1 8 Suit FAVE WET
14:10 DOOMB 3 4 Empress Eugenie FAVE WET
14:28 MURRA 4 4 Magic Niello FAVE DRY

[Michal]

04/07/2013
10:55 CRANB 1 6 Southern Road FAVE DRY
11:30 GRAFT 1 10 Natural Dancer FAVE WET
12:00 CRANB 3 1 Adapted FAVE DRY
12:35 CRANB 4 1 Black Fusion FAVE DRY

[Michal]

05/07/2013
No Selections

[Michal]

06/07/2013
12:05 NEWCA 3 1 Incubus FAVE DRY
12:35 FLEMI 2 1 Avas Delight FAVE DRY
12:50 SEYMO 3 6 Royal Mephisto FAVE DRY
12:55 ROSEH 2 1 Oompa Loompa FAVE WET
13:15 NEWCA 5 2 Spurlohn FAVE DRY
14:14 BELPK 1 1 Spin Da Wheels FAVE DRY
15:25 BELPK 3 9 Smoko FAVE DRY
17:38 TOOCN 2 2 Lotto Hill FAVE DRY
19:27 TOOCN 5 1 You Win Again FAVE DRY

[Michal]

07/07/2013
13:00 GRAFT 1 12 Jitterbug FAVE DRY
13:55 ACTON 3 10 Shanina FAVE DRY
16:35 GRAFT 7 10 Reputed FAVE DRY
17:20 KALGL 5 1 Foo Foo The Snoo FAVE DRY

[Michal]

08/07/2013
14:03 MUSWE 3 10 Sumptuous FAVE WET

[Michal]

09/07/2013
13:15 GEESY 3 10 Unique Assassin FAVE DRY
14:15 TOOCN 4 2 Jacks Back FAVE DRY
15:25 TOOCN 6 2 Tough Taimz FAVE DRY

[Michal]

10/07/2013
12:02 EAGLE 2 5 I Doubt I Can FAVE DRY
13:00 BENDI 3 2 Dubonnet FAVE WET
14:10 BELPK 2 1 Aint Bad FAVE DRY
15:07 EAGLE 7 4 Locks Legend FAVE DRY
15:20 CANTE 5 1 Watt Luck FAVE WET

[Michal]

12/07/2013
12:08 GBURN 2 1 Regal Scribe FAVE DRY
12:25 IPSWI 1 5 Active Star FAVE WET

[Michal]

13/07/2013
12:15 MOWBR 1 2 Havana Stash FAVE DRY
12:20 WFARM 1 1 Pitcrew FAVE WET
15:40 NEWCA 7 2 Fast N Sharp FAVE WET

[Michal]

14/07/2013
13:22 GRAFT 3 10 Rainbow Dane FAVE DRY

[Michal]

15/07/2013
12:45 MDURA 2 4 Group Hug FAVE DRY
13:42 SCONE 2 1 S********y Beau FAVE DRY

[Michal]

16/07/2013
14:20 TVILL 3 4 Awesome Horsesom FAVE DRY

[Michal]

17/07/2013
13:05 BALAK 2 3 Planetary FAVE DRY
13:23 DOOMB 4 7 Anonymiss Kitty FAVE DRY
14:11 FANNI 1 3 Ringwood Magic FAVE DRY
14:15 BALAK 4 7 Lemerio FAVE DRY
14:55 BELPK 2 1 Quokka FAVE DRY
16:03 FANNI 4 7 The Last General FAVE DRY

[Michal]

Please note: SP Equal Favourite is considered a selection under the terms of the method. Thank you for the kind emails from all those that persisted and backed the $5.5 equal fave winner at Darvin. We also had a late entry after WA scratchings that won at $2.6 for all those that actually run the system for themselves using Axis. It made for a very profitable day and is shaping to be another sensational month!

Currently running at 52% strike rate this month and 37% POT.

No sight of the forum curse here !!!! Not yet anyway and its been nearly 2 months.

We recommend that you don't wait for us to put up the selections, BUY AXIS AND RUN THE METHOD YOURSELF!

R2W FREE SELECTIONS
(Best results - Only G/D tracks + Selections are SP F/E.)

18/07/2013
12:45 ROCKY 1 1 Joshuas Might FAVE DRY
15:53 WYONG 7 3 Rhythms FAVE DRY

[rails run]

Hi Michal

Thankyou for the great information you guys have shared on this forum.

I have always found it difficult betting to systems relying on SP Fav because it often isn't known until after the race jumps.

Today Rocky R1 TAB#1 looked like being SP fav until TAB#3 started a $3 and won.

Can you offer any help here on how to place the bet with confidence?

[Michal]

Hi Rails Run,

You are right, it is not the simplest of things to get right. It is recommended that the bets are placed in the last minute especially if there are selections that are not a clear fave. You can use what ever media to determine the Fave; Sp, Betfair, one of the totes and so on, as long as you do this consistently it will even out the bumps.

Many times we don't get to count the winner, even though the bet was on, due to late change in SP order, change in track condition and so on. Obviously this also happens and the horse loses but in the end consistency of application will smooth this over.

Even more importantly it is imperative to give yourself a chance to get the best possible price. The last General (17/7 Darwin 4) was SP $5.5 it was also available at $6 at several bookies, $6.5 with one bookie, $7 on betfair.

Spending more time on obtaining a good price is more important then worrying about possible selections that are close. Remember these selections are per-qualified in Axis and have a great chance of winning.

Obviously Axis does not need to have its hand held by the market, the raw selections from this system have the ability to make profit as I illustrated in previous posts in this thread. Also other systems can be devised that can be placed on early in one lot so as to eliminate the need to sit there.

The exercise here was to see if favourites can be profitable, it looks like over last 3 years and 6 months live testing (2 months here), that it is possible providing that one can identify those favourites that are deserving of that title, which we accomplish using our ratings as the main filters, there will be more on this, as we unveil even more functionality in Axis over the next few weeks.

Kind regards

[rails run]

Thanks Michal. Keep up the good work!

[Michal]

19/07/2013
13:18 ACTON 3 1 Regallic FAVE DRY
15:03 ACTON 6 7 Canasta Queen FAVE DRY

[Michal]

Further to my post yesterday. One of the issues when it comes to punting is the mental capability of punters to deal with a setbacks and wins. Not handling either situation can lead to a disastrous end. That is why I said to err on the side of caution and if the horse looks like being a fave or equal fave then it is better to bet; that way you are not going to have to deal with the pain of missing a winner, which is far harder to deal with (IMO) then a loosing bet.

Our Axis software is geared to only have one Favourite; as a result we won't be claiming The Last General's win in our results, (LOL what else is new) but the money is safely in the bag. It's just one of those swings and roundabouts I was talking about.

A sign of a good system is the ability to absorb some punishment, looking at selections that are equal fave is one such punishment. When I ran the equal fave scenario over all our data the POT is nearly the same, there is about 200 more selections and our strike rate drops only 0.4%. This is great news, mainly because the prices on horses in races where the market is divided are more generous and great outcomes can be achieved; $6.5 for the race favourite is luxurious. So while the sterile results of our test don't show equal fave, betting them and as such preserving ones mental calm is of no consequence in the long run and provides great opportunity for some great outcomes. That is just another reality of punting.

[Michal]

20/07/2013
15:40 FLEMI 7 4 Aregee Mclaren FAVE DRY
17:45 CALOU 2 5 Style Music FAVE DRY
19:35 CALOU 5 13 Sweet And Savage FAVE DRY

[Lord Greystoke]

Even more importantly it is imperative to give yourself a chance to get the best possible price. The last General (17/7 Darwin 4) was SP $5.5 it was also available at $6 at several bookies, $6.5 with one bookie, $7 on betfair.

Spending more time on obtaining a good price is more important then worrying about possible selections that are close.
Never a truer work written imho; whether you base your selections on ratings or systems (or both).

The final and ultimate filter when it comes to value being price? Applies to many other things in life I find e.g. shopping for household appliances;
(1) research for the 'quality offering' online then
(2) shop for best price you can find in the market = value for money.

Recent experience for me indicates that when you apply the 'price lens' is one of the keys to staying in front. As someone else on here said recently.. if you are watching the movement of the odds from open before placing the bet, it may already be too late when it comes to getting the best price on your selection(s).

Cheers LG

[Michal]

21/07/2013
12:15 ELWIC 1 6 Moonrise FAVE WET
12:40 PT AU 1 1 Erbawi FAVE DRY

[Michal]

There have been no selections the last 2 days

24/07/2013
11:53 DEVS 1 3 Geegees Joker FAVE DRY
13:04 DEVS 3 8 Chiming FAVE DRY

[Michal]

25/07/2013
12:10 BENDI 3 19 A Single Tear FAVE WET
14:25 NORTH 1 1 Railtrain Express FAVE DRY

[Michal]

26/07/2013
12:18 GBURN 2 6 Mihiri FAVE DRY
14:38 GBURN 6 2 Iking FAVE DRY
15:42 BROOM 2 3 Rock And Riff FAVE DRY

[Michal]

27/07/2013
12:20 NEWCA 1 7 Pirandello FAVE DRY
12:55 NEWCA 2 8 Strength FAVE DRY
13:00 DOOMB 2 1 Agitate FAVE DRY
13:15 MORPH 2 3 Cash Is Coming FAVE DRY
13:47 GOLD 2 8 Amazing Fate FAVE WET

[Michal]

28/07/2013
13:35 BDSRT 2 1 Prime Quest FAVE DRY
16:10 DEVS 8 1 Black N Tough FAVE DRY
18:00 KALGL 6 1 Lee Rani FAVE DRY

[Michal]

30/07/2013
12:33 WYONG 1 5 Count On It FAVE DRY
12:57 ACTON 2 10 Canasta Queen FAVE DRY
13:50 MACKA 2 7 Pure Widow FAVE DRY

[Michal]

31/07/2013
12:12 DOOMB 1 1 Dashing Supreme FAVE WET
12:29 MURRA 1 6 Wapping FAVE DRY
14:25 BELPK 1 1 Thateldo FAVE DRY
17:01 FANNI 4 5 Sarcasm FAVE DRY

[Michal]

A great farewell from this extremely profitable and stable system. 3 winners from 3 bets! Can't do better then that.

I'll post the summary of the month and for our period that we have been putting these selections live here for everyone to see including the forum curse :). It will be interesting to see what the outcome is!

[Lord Greystoke]

Nice work Michal. 100% transparency, just as you said.

Cheers LG

[Michal]

Favourites Dry results for July at NSW/Sp div - Bets 36 wins 13 SR 44.4% POT 0.42%

On the face of it it might look like the Dry Favourite system is not working, however we should remember that this month has seen many meetings postponed and run on water affected tracks. Also there has been a large number of trials canceled. All of these factors play havoc with horses preparation. Which may explain the result. Note also that there are about half the number of selections that we expected and as such the result may be just experiencing variance. If you recall we also lost a few good winners including a $5.5 win to equal favouritism and changes to track conditions. Even just today, my farewell 3 from 3 result has been reduced to 2 from 2 because of track changes :)

We introduced the Wet Favourite System back in June and have been giving the selections out through out this month as well, it's only fair to include them in the result.

Combined Favourite system July results - Bets 50 Wins 25 SR 50% POT 10.4%

Recognising that different conditions need different tools and as such using both systems run together produced better then long-term expected results.

[Michal]

This post will summarise the over all result of the whole exercise that we have run here, while in the search of the answer to the question if it is possible to make profits, long term from favourites.

The test was carried out by posting all the selections each morning prior to races with the only remaining filters to obtain the actual qualifiers being that the selection must be favourite and in the case of the 'Dry' system must be run of Good or Dead track. From our research we determined that the expected result would be a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP and about 2 bets per day as pointed out in post 5 of this thread. We opened ourselves to criticism and the forum curse to see if a well constructed system can indeed deliver long-term profits and here are the results:

Date Range - 26/05/2013 to 31/07/2013 Period of Days - 67
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW

WIN STATISTICS Value Bets Wins SR Collect Avg POT Profit Outs

Races 130 62 47.7% $139.77 $2.25 7.52% $9.77 6



After 2 months of live testing we delivered and exceed what we promised and gave all those that took our selections a profit from free tips. This system has proven to be safe with the risk to bank at just 10% draw-down. I hope that we have proven that with the right horses that are favourites it is possible to make a profit.

Of course it is not very inspiring to watch a system being tested with $1 level stake bets so lets have a look at some other possible and realistic alternatives. Using a $10,000 bank and better div model it becomes very evident that this is a great start toward profitable punting.

Proportional Staking to take out 4% - 8% POT Profit $2,372 with 17% max bank risk
Level Stake 1% of bank - 10% POT Profit $1,497 with 10% max bank risk

These are very conservative betting models, based on the fact that these are favourites we can safely increase the bets and still be able to get on without effecting the price or experiencing liquidity issues.

This system alone could easily help cover the monthly subscription to our Axis program and allow it's user to generate these selections for themselves together with all the other profitable systems that could be constructed and with all the benefits that Axis has to offer. If you are looking to change or simply improve your punting and are looking for the right tools then evidently Axis is the right tool; our transparent results speak loud and clear and anyone can replicate them!

We want to thank all those that have supported and encouraged us along the way and look forward to the challenges of the next test.

[Michal]

Nice work Michal. 100% transparency, just as you said.

Cheers LG

Hi LG,

Thanks for your comment, it means a great deal coming from you. It is the point of difference in this industry that we strive for. Integrity and transparency; we let our successful results do most of the talking and are happy to help others achieve success and share our experience with all.

Michal

[garyf]

Was long odds on to succeed in my opinion.


Filters within your data base would improve profits,
As would taking better odds available elsewhere.

Can't fault your honesty and integrity.

Good luck with your product in the future.
For what it's worth i would be aboard if i ever started losing.

Praise from me is as scarce as hens teeth, you now have it.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Michal]

Hi Garyf,

Thank you, you are right, there are many strong pockets of profits withing that system which could be refined. Having smaller systems based on a solid foundation like this system would make it very possible that these would continue even though the number of bets would decline. Our intent is to show large sample system possibilities. I will be able to show a few more pricing options over the next few days as we are about to release something that will allow me to do more with our betting analyser; so it will be interesting to see where and how we can improve.

I hope that that if you ever chose to utilise our services it won't be because you are loosing! I appreciate your kind comments, we post and show and try to educate punters. We realise that we don't know everything and we also know that many that post here are successful within their own right. Our intention is not to 'turn' people from their methods or tools but rather to just show who we are, what we do and what Ratings2win stands for and then let people decide if they can benefit form our products.

[Michal]

Here is the results of our Favourite System over the month of August.

Bets 52
Wins 24

Strike rate 46.2%

POT 6.44%

Another solid month at about the expected figures based on the long-term average. Remember this is a mechanical system created in our R2W Axis program. What is especially good to see, is the performance is maintained long-term over 3+ years and over 3000 bets.

[Lord Greystoke]

Here is the results of our Favourite System over the month of August.

Bets 52
Wins 24

Strike rate 46.2%

POT 6.44%

Another solid month at about the expected figures based on the long-term average. Remember this is a mechanical system created in our R2W Axis program. What is especially good to see, is the performance is maintained long-term over 3+ years and over 3000 bets.What is the strike for the Place over this period, may I ask?

LG

[PaulD01]

What is the strike for the Place over this period, may I ask?

LG

Hi LG

Place strike rate over the 3,000+ bets is 76.2% and over August 2013 68%.

[Michal]

September results

115 selections 50 wins for 0.09% POT; a break even result at our NSW/SP. It seams to be that kind of month, a first in 6 months where we didn't make a profit, but no damage done and we look forward to another profitable month in October.

If you take out the wet tracks, which may be a reasonable thing to do since the 'wet season' is over then the normal 'DRY' system makes just under 1% POT profit.

[Michal]

Hi All,

Not sure what button I pressed, but the results in the previous post are not from the September favourite system. Having just come back from a months leave of doing the files I am a bit rusty :)

September Favourite System
Selections 59 wins 26, SR 44.1%, POT 1.25%

A little better!

At fixed prices (available at jump) this climbs to 2.98% POT
At best of best (in our pricing categories) this climbs to 5.53% POT

All the best

Michal

[Michal]

I just had to post this ! That is today's list of raw Favourites selections for today, with results.
It was bit harder to come to terms with that many selections this morning,
but the main thing is to trust your method, be CONSISTENT and EXECUTE!

The prices are QLD tab;

06/10/2013 12:10 BENLL 1 13 Speedastro 1st $8.5 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 13:20 BENLL 3 9 Googly Gander 1st $1.8 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 14:10 BAIRN 3 12 Chalumeau 1st $4.2 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 15:00 PT LI 3 2 Heza Hussler 1st $1.6 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 15:15 KILCO 4 6 Miss Mega Herz 1st $1.6 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 15:40 BENLL 7 10 Godspiel 1st $1.6 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 16:45 PI PK 1 1 Face The Breeze 1st $3.4 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 16:58 COOTA 7 1 Fullerton 2nd R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 17:05 KILCO 7 1 Mr Favulous R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 17:25 PI PK 2 1 Best A Man Can Get 1st $1.3 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 17:50 NORTH 4 5 Angel Rose 1st $1.6 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
06/10/2013 18:05 PI PK 3 1 Noir Rasoir 1st $2 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY

[Michal]

Here is the actual bets for the day from our results, 10 bet 9 wins 1 second. That means there there is still room for improvement ! :)

06/10/2013
13:20 BENLL 3 9 Googly Gander 1st $2
14:10 BAIRN 3 12 Chalumeau 1st $4.2
15:00 PT LI 3 2 Heza Hussler 1st $1.8
15:15 KILCO 4 6 Miss Mega Herz 1st $1.6
15:40 BENLL 7 10 Godspiel 1st $1.6
16:45 PI PK 1 1 Face The Breeze 1st $3.6
16:58 COOTA 7 1 Fullerton 2nd
17:25 PI PK 2 1 Best A Man Can Get 1st $1.3
17:50 NORTH 4 5 Angel Rose 1st $1.6
18:05 PI PK 3 1 Noir Rasoir 1st $2.3

[Michal]

This is the full printout of the mornings selections with results for yesterday; all but 1 were favourites, hard to make a mistake on a day like this!

24/10/2013 13:35 BALLA 2 6 Pearl Heart 1st $1.6 R2W PROFIT FAVE WET
24/10/2013 13:55 HAWK2 2 7 Aztec Rose 1st $2.2 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
24/10/2013 14:45 BALLA 4 4 Respect Me 1st $1.9 R2W PROFIT FAVE WET
24/10/2013 15:05 HAWK2 4 1 Tralfaz 1st $1.3 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
24/10/2013 15:13 IPSWI 2 1 Pretty Face 1st $2.3 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
24/10/2013 15:40 HAWK2 5 1 Eravana 1st $3.9 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY

[PaulD01]

A big month in terms of bets as well as returns.

This system continues to perform. It is now 11 months since going live and without a single tweak and results that are the same as the test period. With over 3,200 bets (avg of 2 per day); it provides stability in both the short and long-term.

With Axis, anything is possible! Even using our low cost solution Axis Historical, you can research and develop your own systems without the pressure of having to cover monthly subscriptions until you are ready to go. Find a system with results like our Favourites System and you'll never look back. You can have the full functionality of Axis Historical for under $1.09 a day. Is that a worthwhile investment into your punting future?

Using the intelligence of the ratings and other proprietary factors contained within the software, our favourites system took less than an hour to construct which included running several tests over all horses over a 3 years period.

Horses Bet 87
Won 46
Strike rate 52.9%
POT 14.48% at NSW/SP
POT 16.75% at Fixed odds available at race start

[Michal]

A nice weekend was had by those who follow our system. 10 winners from 12 selections. This month follows on from last, so far 54% strike rate and 24% POT.

To get our selections all you have to do is press a button! (provided that you have Axis, a subscription and the system) Actually its even less work, just load the day into Race Day Portal (race day races interface) and Axis will run your systems automatically for you and updates this list every time you click on a race for any changes such as jockey, track condition or scratchings. It couldn't be easier.

We will be withdrawing this system from our line up and availability soon; to protect it's integrity for those that have the system. We give it to new clients with a purchase of yearly prepaid subscription to Axis Advanced + Indicators data.

16/11/2013 12:15 CAULF 1 8 Golconda 1st $2.8 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 14:00 EAGLE 2 1 Pinch River 1st $1.8 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 14:18 ROMA 1 3 Mythologist 1st $2 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 14:30 ROSEH 3 1 White Sage 1st $1.2 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 14:35 DUNKL 5 1 Zounite 2nd R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 15:35 GUNDA 7 9 Contrite Heart R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 15:45 GOLD 4 15 Snapcrackle 1st $1.9 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 16:32 ROMA 5 6 Miss Mega Herz 1st $2.5 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
16/11/2013 21:35 CALOU 7 6 Chrysin 1st $1.0 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
17/11/2013 13:00 GEELO 1 8 Lavenham 1st $1.8 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
17/11/2013 17:34 DONAL 8 1 Sistine Demon 1st $1.8 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY
17/11/2013 17:50 MTBKR 3 2 The Tenby Friar 1st $3.2 R2W PROFIT FAVE DRY

[Michal]

Another massive day with 120%+ POT with 2 winners from 3.

We will be withdrawing this system from our line up and availability soon; to protect it's integrity for us and those that have the system. We give it to new clients with a purchase of yearly prepaid subscription to Axis Advanced + Indicators data. If you are considering this, your time is running out fast.

[PaulD01]

Hi All,

We have made the decision to pull down the daily tips generated from this system at the end of this month and will no longer post any selections, just statistical results. In addition the current policy of a year's annual subscription in advance (to get the system rules for Axis) will extend to three years with no exceptions. The reason we have chosen to do this, is to protect the value of the selections made available to the small number of clients that have access including ourselves.

[darkydog2002]

Well it was a nice pick up for me on your last day.
Thanks.

[Michal]

Hi Darky,

The notice was in regards to the Favourite system, we post its selections on face book and elsewhere.

The other system from the "Home Track Advantage" thread will still be updated with selections at least to the end of the year. We will be rethinking our free selections format then.

Michal

[Michal]

November Results

Without a fail this system is going from strength to strength, faithfully producing similar results each month since we went live with it at beginning of 2013, 11 months ago.

TEST RESULTS for Group - R2W-F
Date Range - 01/11/2013 to 30/11/2013 Period of Days - 30
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW

WIN STATISTICS Value Bets Wins SR Collect Avg POT Profit Outs

Races 95 50 52.6% $106.11 $2.10 11.69% $11.11 6
Horses 95 50 52.6% $106.11 $2.10 11.69% $11.11 NA

By-passed selections with no result '---' 0

[Michal]

Axis again presented a great and enjoyable weekend of results. With a click of a button there were 13 selections over the 2 days for 9 wins at 69.2% strike rate and 45% POT.

Anyone running Axis can obtain results like these from their own easy to construct systems or by using our systems offer where we give you the rules with a purchase of prepaid subscription.

[Michal]

There is always a debate that is raging somewhere in the world right now on this topic.

Can you make money from betting favourites?

Most professional punters do just that. And for good reason.

The answer is that YES it can be done, You will need to run some sort of software or manual method to eliminate those selections that are unsuitable and you should be left with a few good horses every day! Waiting for these pre-selected bets is much easier to manage and bet then just a plain list of all horses.

For those that want to bet proportional, then a real scenario is $5000 bank, 4% takeout, profit $4136 or 7.56% POT just at NSW/SP with Maximum bank risk at 27%. Nice and safe!


Remember this one? First posted May 2013 ! I just thought that I would update it.

Lets take it from March 2010 to Aug 2015:
46.5% strike rate and 4335 bets, (around 2 per day):

The betting scenario is 4% of FIXED $5000 bank:
Using NSW/SP: profit is $14,222 or 3.75% POT
Using Fixed Price: Profit $21,540 or 5.65% POT

Using 4% of ACTUAL bank starting at $5000:
bets adjust to rises and falls of the bank the profit is $161,600.
only increasing the bets by best bank the profit is $345,500

There is the issue that eventually the bets would become too big so the profit will be regulated by what you can get on!

If you remember we gave out the selections from this system for free for nearly a year, so it's there for all to see. The system was constructed in Axis.

To those that predicted, or wanted the downfall of this system, sorry to disappoint. :) Oh and I suppose the answer to the question is still YES You can make money from favourites !!!

[darkydog2002]

I Know they do Michal.

When you posted some of these as a freebie awhile back I made great money from them.

Cheers
darky