Umitab Lay Method

[Shaun]

I have been lookimg at am old method i that i seen, you lay the second Unitab pick as long as it is umder $8 lay price and not fave, you stop betting that venue as soon as a result is known.

I did some back testing just using Unitab prices plus 20% to account for betfair lay price, here are some results for the first 3 months of this year.

Outlay $18,062
Return $19,263
Profit $1,201
Selection 492
Wins 402
SR 81.54%
AVE Price $6.56
POT 6.65%

I did adjustments to account for comission.


Going to do the next 3 months, the liability was 5% payout of bank adjusted weekly

Any input would be good or maybe something i need to look at.

[evajb001]

With some of the small lots of stats i've got on the unitab ratings, i've noticed that 100 raters obviously win the most, however there seems to be a dip at 99, a slight increase to 98, it peaks at 97, then starts to diminish again after that.

i.e. for a few months last year i kept the stats on ratings across all venues in races that were class 3 or better. The following are the number of winners that had the specific unitab rating:

Rating - Winners
100 - 483
99 - 135
98 - 173
97 - 219
96 - 244
95 - 190
94 - 187
93 - 153
92 - 130
91 - 121
90 - 79
89 - 54
88 - 37
87 or less - 87

Total Races 2292

As you can see there might be some room for laying 99 and 98 rated horses in the right circumstances? That's all the stats I can really provide but may give you a starting point for some form of system?

[stugots]

Will run the last 12 months tonight

[stugots]

Tatts rank =2
BF price <$8.0
SP rank >=2

bets $3718
collect $3620 (net of 6.5%comm)
net $-98

Filters exclude -

maidens - 2/3yolds

non maidens
race no7 & up
runner api rank <=2
bf$ <$4.0
>=59.5kg

bets $989
collect $1244 (net of 6.5%comm)
net $+255
pot 25.8%

[Rinconpaul]

Tatts rank =2
BF price <$8.0
SP rank >=2

bets $3718
collect $3620 (net of 6.5%comm)
net $-98

Filters exclude -

maidens - 2/3yolds

non maidens
race no7 & up
runner api rank <=2
bf$ <$4.0
>=59.5kg

bets $989
collect $1244 (net of 6.5%comm)
net $+255
pot 25.8%Just a query stugots. In the filters you've excluded maidens - 2/3yolds and non maidens. If I'm reading this right, this only leaves:
Maidens 4yo and over with a runner api rank >2, >= $BF4.00 and less than 59.5kg? Is this right?
Cheers RP

[stugots]

No RP, yeah sorry, it doesn't read that clearly, so filters are -


maidens races - 2/3yolds

non maidens races
race no7 & up
runner api rank <=2
bf$ <$4.0
>=59.5kg

[evajb001]

Stugots, any chance you can check the following in non-maiden races:

Lay any 99 unitab rater if there are 1 or more 100 raters in the race
Lay any 98 unitab rater if there are 1 or more 99 or 100 raters in the race

Hope that makes sense, can clarify if need be.

Thanks

Would also be interested if its more profitable above or below say $30,000 prizemoney too if thats at all possible?

[demodocus]

With some of the small lots of stats i've got on the unitab ratings, i've noticed that 100 raters obviously win the most, however there seems to be a dip at 99, a slight increase to 98, it peaks at 97, then starts to diminish again after that.

i.e. for a few months last year i kept the stats on ratings across all venues in races that were class 3 or better. The following are the number of winners that had the specific unitab rating:

Rating - Winners
100 - 483
99 - 135
98 - 173
97 - 219
96 - 244
etc etc
Total Races 2292

As you can see there might be some room for laying 99 and 98 rated horses in the right circumstances? That's all the stats I can really provide but may give you a starting point for some form of system?
May I respectfully indicate that these figures would have a lot more relevency if the representation of each of the Unitabs was included. i.e in the Rating 99 data it would be good to know just how many horses in the 2,292 races had a rating of 99.

Regards.

[evajb001]

Not sure demodocus, like I said my lack of a database means I just kept some stats in excel over the space of a few months for the winners of races only. Would have to check with someone that has a more extensive database sorry.

[stugots]

Stugots, any chance you can check the following in non-maiden races:

Lay any 99 unitab rater if there are 1 or more 100 raters in the race
Lay any 98 unitab rater if there are 1 or more 99 or 100 raters in the race

Hope that makes sense, can clarify if need be.

Thanks

Would also be interested if its more profitable above or below say $30,000 prizemoney too if thats at all possible?


No problem eva, early next week when time allows.

[Shaun]

Can some one run these numbers for me based on $100 Lay stake please.

Selections 848
wins 645
Average lay price 6.70

Just want to see if my numbers are right.

[Rinconpaul]

Can some one run these numbers for me based on $100 Lay stake please.

Selections 848
wins 645
Average lay price 6.70

Just want to see if my numbers are right.Average nett profit after commish = $16.40 x 645 wins = $10,580
No. of bets 848 less no. of wins 645 = 203 x $100 = -$20,300


Loss is $9,720

[Shaun]

Wins is the runners that lost sorry, so they are the winning lays.

[Rinconpaul]

Wins is the runners that lost sorry, so they are the winning lays.
Loss is $9,720

[Shaun]

ok ty

[Shaun]

Are you sure, does not look right.

[Shaun]

Think i am listing it incorrectly, my excel says different.

[Shaun]

In 63,860.50 (93.5 x 645)
Out 52,150.70 (203 x 256.90)average payout
= 11,709.80

[evajb001]

RP's calcs are correct shaun

[Rinconpaul]

RP's calcs are correct shaunThanks Eva.
I think you'd better go back to the drawing board on that one Shaun. Even Bhagwans Black Box won't save this one mate.
RP

[Shaun]

Maybe you should take a look at the spreadsheet, might snawer some questions.

[Mark]

Shaun, your average payout is $670. So lose $570 x 203 = -$115710.
Win $100 (@94%) = $94 x 645 = +$60630.
Therefore loss is $55080, based on $100 lay stake.

$100 liability is completely different.
203 x $100 = -$20300
645 x $16.49 (100/5.7 to 1, @94%) = +$10636.
Loss = $9664

[UselessBettor]

as mark stated the way you stake can make a huge difference.

[Shaun]

Will send you the info Mark, i just stuffed up the way i was trying to explain it, just take a look, see if what i have is wrong or write.

[stugots]

Stugots, any chance you can check the following in non-maiden races:

Lay any 99 unitab rater if there are 1 or more 100 raters in the race
Lay any 98 unitab rater if there are 1 or more 99 or 100 raters in the race

Hope that makes sense, can clarify if need be.

Thanks

Would also be interested if its more profitable above or below say $30,000 prizemoney too if thats at all possible?


Hi eva, finally pulled my finger out & ran these over 8 month period, but no joy with both losing around 15%, & no obvious ways to improve - the figures for 99 raters

qualifiers 1293
winners 226
collect 1099
net loss -194