Ratings and The Stradbroke.

[Barny]

Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??

[Rinconpaul]

About the only thing that comes close is jockey/trainer algorithm in neurals Barny! 2nd rated behind Sizzling. It was a masterful ride.
Just don't bet these sought of races I say!
The two's. Too much talent, too many horses!
RP

[Shaun]

Think the average pizemoney put it second.

[Barny]

One of the really / most important elements is not taken into consideration and that is the tempo of the race / luck in running / slipstreaming, which apparently can save a horse much exertion if it lobs in behind a horse and is able to pull out at the optimum moment. Another one is fitness. How can ratings ascertain fitness, esp with those horses trained privately. Too many holes for mine ..... AND ..... the known factors which ratings use would surely be overemphasised if only for the lack of known factors from other horses.

[Lord Greystoke]

Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??Hardly. The top weight went down by 3/4 length, having beaten 16 other horses home and I for one thought it had the best chance of nailing it, based on all the ratings-based data I could get my hands on pre-race.

LG

[TheSchmile]

Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??Hi Barny,

One could also ask, why didn't the bookies open it as favourite?

The facts were, whether using ratings or not, Linton had recently raced in Adelaide in Listed and Group3 company beating the likes of Road Warrior and Lucky Penny, which didn't exactly 'rate' it that highly. I suspect the bookmakers and ratings experts took all of these factors into the equation and put up an initial price of $41. It was obviously liked by a few prudent punters as it started at $31.

Question:
When you say 'these are the types of races where ratings fall down' could you be more specific?
1/ What races are you referring to? Group handicap races with large fields run in QLD?
2/ Which ratings are you referring to?

It's my experience that the ratings I use work best in better class races.

Reading ratings is like reading form, it is simply a figure assigned to a particular run. I prefer rating services that rate every single run of a horses career, so that you can follow the ebbs and flows.

In terms of the Stradbroke, I actually left the race alone as I couldn't make hide nor hair of it in the end. Mostly due to the wet weather leading up to the race, which left me struggling to ascertain who was in the best form, ratings or not.

Sometimes it pays to admit a race has you beaten and enjoy the spectacle. Money stays in your pocket.

To conclude though, if you assume there is a ratings team that had Linton on top, one could also assume they own a large Island in the tropics?....

I had Linton on Weights and Measures coming about 6th, and I think the glorious 'saloon passage' he enjoyed along the rails made up many lengths on the opposition. You'll need a ratings program that will be able to predict "from barrier 21 Linton will go straight to the back, have a leisurely run till the 500m, then not pass a horse and win pulling away" Great when it happens....

[Shaun]

Although i don,t do much ratings these days i ran that race over mine and found about the same thing, yes 2 wins in a row may look good but there were others in the race that had better form, as i said it was second on api so you may have had it on that bit of info, only one race and we cant win em all.

On another note i rated a runner today 3rd in a maiden it paid 50+ no way would i have backed it as i dont bet maidens but just goes to show how each race is different.

[Shaun]

People some times think ratings are a magical way to find winners, i think they are no different to any other form study, only difference for me is every bit of form is determined the same way with no emotion, all the emotion has been built in to the ratings because every one values bits of form differently

[Mark]

Linton's opening price was $26 and it's SP was $26.
My method of deleting horses (which has been posted) left me with 6 runners. They ran 1st-2nd-3rd-9th-11th-14th. The winner was my 2nd best result in the race. Happy days.

[garyf]

Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??





Wizard Timeform Best Form (12 mths) Recent Form Distance Class Consensus






Buffering Streama Buffering Buffering Buffering Famous Seamus Buffering





Streama Buffering Linton Linton Fontelina Belltone Streama







Your Song Your Song Spirit Of Boom Epaulette Epaulette Fontelina Linton





Poll:- Buffering(14), Streama( 5), Linton( 4), Famous Seamus( 3), Fontelina( 3), Epaulette( 2), Your Song( 2), Belltone( 2), Spirit Of Boom( 1)


I use the consensus panel (poll down the bottom) when using these ratings as they,
Incorporate all ratings plus a distance factor.

Was in the top-3 here no problems for these ratings.

IF YOU WANT ALL THE RACES FOR EAGLE FARM ON THAT DAY,
LEAVE ME YOUR EMAIL AND I WILL SEND YOU THE ORIGINAL

CHEERS.

[garyf]

Actually the top 1-2-3 in the ratings poll ran the trifecta.


Unfortunately exotic betting is not my go.

Just thought i would mention it but i have been down this,
Path before regarding ratings "AND THERE USEFULNESS"

Cheers.
GF.

[TheSchmile]

Linton's opening price was $26 and it's SP was $26.
My method of deleting horses (which has been posted) left me with 6 runners. They ran 1st-2nd-3rd-9th-11th-14th. The winner was my 2nd best result in the race. Happy days.Well done Mark!

[TheSchmile]

Was in the top-3 here no problems for these ratings.

IF YOU WANT ALL THE RACES FOR EAGLE FARM ON THAT DAY,
LEAVE ME YOUR EMAIL AND I WILL SEND YOU THE ORIGINAL
Hi Garyf,

I'd love to see the Eagle Farm ratings if possible! I haven't used the Wizard in YEARS but your post has certainly peaked my interest!!

My email: paullytwoshoes at gmail dot com

[garyf]

Hi Garyf,

I'd love to see the Eagle Farm ratings if possible! I haven't used the Wizard in YEARS but your post has certainly peaked my interest!!

My email: paullytwoshoes at gmail dot comHi T.S the offer was proof for Barny if he wanted it,
But will make an exception because it's you.

On its way

Cheers.
Garyf.

[TheSchmile]

You're a diamond Garyf! :)

[garyf]

Hi T.S the offer was proof for Barny if he wanted it,
But will make an exception because it's you.

On its way

Cheers.
Garyf.The silence is deafening ???.

[Barny]

The silence is deafening ???.
I recall a random Saturday looking at the ratings for M, S, B and one top rated horse won. The thread is on here somewhere. I do thank you for the3 offer of proof but I believe you. All I would do is look for some more holes and it appears that we're now looking at a "poll", similar to a tipsters poll. It just gets better. If ratings worked they would show a half decent profit by simply backing the top rated horse .... the only way to win from ratings is to sell them.

[garyf]

I recall a random Saturday looking at the ratings for M, S, B and one top rated horse won. The thread is on here somewhere. I do thank you for the3 offer of proof but I believe you. All I would do is look for some more holes and it appears that we're now looking at a "poll", similar to a tipsters poll. It just gets better. If ratings worked they would show a half decent profit by simply backing the top rated horse .... the only way to win from ratings is to sell them.Did you actually look at what the poll contains???.

"RATINGS" now who would have thought.

Then explain back to me what they are and what,
Each one actually represent if you please.

You asked why ratings didn't get the winner of the stradbroke.

I then offered evidence that the 2nd pick in the best form ratings
had the winner.

Then the 2nd pick in the recent form ratings also had the winner.

As usual you post that ratings can't and don't win,
Yet you offer no evidence that they don't.

Let's do this.

The most popular form of ratings are weight ratings.

They appear in the R+S website.
Also the C/P on the neurals.
The 100p on unitab are from A.A.P. who do weight ratings.
The paid version on everyrace.com which i make a living out of,
Also use this format.

So you explain to me how these ratings are actually derived,
And the process involved in doing it.

This will assure me we are on the same page so to speak.

Then i will try to work out what i am doing wrong,
In making a living from them and correct my ways so i can lose on.
Them which eventually will happen according to you.

Once you have explained this to me i can then email all the
Handicappers at all the race clubs across the world that they,
Must stop immediately using ratings as an assessment of each horses,
Ability in alloting weights.

Or maybe you can visit the ratings2win website who if,
You bother to go to their site will highlight several rating strategies,
That are profitable.

But 1st enlighten me with how weight ratings actually work,
From there we can progress to debunk speed ratings and class ratings after that.

Cheers.
G.F.

[garyf]

It just gets better. If ratings worked they would show a half decent profit by simply backing the top rated horse .... the only way to win from ratings is to sell them.Forgot to add you want the top rated rating to win,
In all races across Australia and make a level stakes profit.

Can your data base do this??.

Or do you pick and choose when and where to bet.

If backing the top pick in every race every day throughout,
Australia can win using your data base doesn't have to be ratings,
But a set of rules give me the name of the person you purchased it from,
Then i can do exactly the same thing you say ratings can't do.

Would really appreciate betting every day (one horse per race)
Throughout Australia and making a level stakes profit.

Saves me a lot of work.

Looking forward to buying the same one you have.

Cost is no problem for me.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[Shaun]

Hey Gary, those ratings used to be given in the Tab site for members, do you know if they are different now?

[garyf]

Hey Gary, those ratings used to be given in the Tab site for members, do you know if they are different now?Sorry Shaun i have only ever got them from everyrace.com

Back in those days they were called Successability and were,
Based in Canberra.

I used to buy them via fax.

Geez that was a long time ago.

I do remember one of the strategies in one of their books,
They mentioned if you couldn't get the actual ratings,
100-99-98 to just use the top 1-2-3 D.F.S posted on the wall.

Guess that meant you could be right.(T.A.B.)

The actual odds plus class and distance up down equal etc,
Has always been a paid for criteria.

Have not always used them as for many years i did my own,
But way to big a task 7 days a week for me now.

You have to be innovative to make a profit from them,
In their raw state they do identify good priced winners,
Like everything else it's the filters and how you use them that,
Determines profitability or loss.

Probably why Barny can't understand them (or ratings as a process)

Cheers.
Gary.

[garyf]

Hey Gary, those ratings used to be given in the Tab site for members, do you know if they are different now?Just rang a mate who has used them much longer than me.

His comment was this.

"new no"
"Improved Yes"

The Time Rating is the biggest improver,
Then the Wizard ratings themselves.
Others stayed about the same.

THIS IS ONE PERSONS OBSERVATION OVER MANY YEARS.

They wrote several books which are as scarce as hens teeth.

There forum hasn't been active for years.

They don't tell you the best or profitable way to back them,
Like other rating services.

They have always charged for them.

The T.A.B pay a stack of money to get them.

They have been around for 20> years in basIcally the same format.

Make your own assumptions i guess.

Cheers.

[Shaun]

20 years ago the DFS ratings was on computer at the local tab, am sure it is the same but i think what the TAB has now is just the consensus but same ratings, they were good back then and am sure still are, i guess i prefer my own ratings just because i know what goes in to them and because i know they work better on particular types of races it limits my betting if you understand what i am getting at.

[garyf]

Yes i do.


You are definitrly on the right track with certain types of races.

With enough data you can then see which is the the best panels,
To use on them.

For further profitability you can then crosstab the panels,
So you only bet when that horse appears in certain panels
In certain racetypes.

Have read your posts you know the punting game.

Am helping 4 other members with these ratings by emails.

3 since i posted the old prepost system last year,
Haven't kept results of that one wonder if it's still profitable?.

Good luck with your endeavours.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[garyf]

Forgot to add you want the top rated rating to win,
In all races across Australia and make a level stakes profit.

Can your data base do this??.
Or do you pick and choose when and where to bet.

If backing the top pick in every race every day throughout,
Australia can win using your data base doesn't have to be ratings,
But a set of rules give me the name of the person you purchased it from,
Then i can do exactly the same thing you say ratings can't do.

Would really appreciate betting every day (one horse per race)
Throughout Australia and making a level stakes profit.

Saves me a lot of work.


Looking forward to buying the same one you have.

Cost is no problem for me.

Cheers.
Garyf.Have spent several hours going through a certain persons posts,
To find the source of his above mentioned data base he often refers to.

Now that i know, out of respect for this persons fine,
Work and obvious product i will no longer post on or about this thread.

Had i known this answer previously the above mention would,
Never had appeared.

To the person involved "A HEARTFELT SORRY"http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon9.gif

In passing re the other Q's+A's it's akin to watching paint dry,
Or even watching grass grow.(Barny's only)

You know it's going to "HAPPEN" but sitting there watching it,
You just "CAN'T SEE IT ???.

Unfortunately my last post on this thread, you can all make,
Up your own mind(s) who you want to believe.

Cheers.
G.F.

[Barny]

Wow, you were up late last night garyf and early this morning too, hope you slept OK. You say you need to add filters to make ratings work, well then that just proves they're no better than say pre-post for instance. You've confirmed that stand alone ratings won't win, exactly what I've been saying. Thanks for all your hard work garyf ..... sleep tight !! ;)

[Barny]

You are definitrly on the right track with certain types of races.


garyf, I know you're dismissive of my posts and commentary and fair enough but we're not that far off from being on the same page. I have my own "ratings" (one filter) which has stood the test of time as a base filter (no different to your ratings) for a 100 years !! Your ratings change with the wind, my one filter stays the same, and obviously it's not the handicapper. Your ratings are at the whim of whatever is in favour at any particular time, and as we know, when you've found the secret ..... it's too late ..... or it's overbought, as in the case of the punt the odds are too short. We agree that the most important filter is the type of race.

One of your most recent comments is to ask those on here to believe who they want, that's either me or you I guess. Personally I don't mind if it's 100% in your favour, but if it is then the odds tip in my favour, don't they ??

cheers, barny

[Shaun]

There are many ways to skin a cat and the bottom line spesks loudest, good luck on all angles.

[rails run]

Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??
Barny, you asked the question and Garyf provided a verifiable answer. The ratings he uses had the winner of a very good field of horses in the top 3. With plenty of exposed form his ratings successfully outperformed the market based on the final order of faves. He uses filters to increase his profit as any serious pro would. I think this is a good example of a ratings triumph so thanks Barny for playing upside down in the sand pit.

[stugots]

so thanks Barny for playing upside down in the sand pit.

lol, haven't heard that one before:) & agree with your post

[TheSchmile]

Hi Barny,

Apologies if my initial post in this thread was a bit over the top.

I am wondering though, why you didn't at least have a look at Garyf's offer of the wizard ratings for Eagle Farm on Saturday, as in this race it did have the winner as 3rd top pick, streets ahead of the bookies openers. Are you not curious?

Ratings can be used like gear changes, stewards reports or any other angle that could possibly highlight a runner that is undervalued in the market.

Granted, they will rarely outperform the bookies openers race to race but if you follow bookies openers blindly every race you will also head on a one way track to the poorhouse.

Without wanting to degenerate into a petty argument, my genuine question is:
Were you actually seeking an answer to your initial query or were you just having a crack at followers of ratings?

[Barny]

Were you actually seeking an answer to your initial query or were you just having a crack at followers of ratings?
I thought all I did was put an opinion forward ..... I'll go back to the sandpit now.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Barny & garyf,

The answer is there is not ONE only holy grail!

Each of you have your own method to eke out a profit - salutations to you both!

Many of us are hopefully down the right path to doing the same. I have looked at the El Greco rating method (with modifications) recently with some amazing results albeit last weekend was a loser.

Last start winners, and horses resuming or having had 1, 2 or 3 starts from a spell are also giving great returns (with the right elimination rules -haha).

I hope you guys continue to have healthy debates and keep educating all and sundry!

[Barny]

TTA, thanks, it's not too hard to see that garyf is a scientific analyst of the horses. His posts are insightful and have helped me tremendously, but like most things in ,life there's always another way to skin a goat. I've got one system that just keeps winning, year in year out, go back 100 years and it would win. It's been discussed on here in general terms, and one of our better posters wondered if horses are subject to the Peter principle, promoted beyond their ability. They are! Horses can strike a rare vein of form, that's the time to get them, their momentum can get them up in races where they're "out of their class" (anyone define class in ADVANCE of a horses record ????). The old adage that winners keep winning is true to form, combine that with the Peter principle and you have a couple of strong elements of a winning system.

Forget winning form in GR2 races and higher .....

[Barny]

I do accept that garyf got his knickers in a twist when he realised he was putting forward facts to back his argument against an opinion, an opinion nonetheless gained through years of experience, meticulous record keeping, and an unerring sense of how the odds can be manipulated, but still an opinion. garyf offered up "you can decide who to believe", well I actually voted for garyf myself ..... lol.

..... backgammon is a great game and long hose with shorts will make a comeback !!!!!

[TheSchmile]

I thought all I did was put an opinion forward ..... I'll go back to the sandpit now.
Perhaps, my friend Barny, you should change your CP to 'The Riddler'........:D

[jose]

" long hose with shorts will make a comeback "

Mine never went away.

[Chrome Prince]

It is necessary to incorporate Roman sandals with that attire.