Lay "Short-Priced" Horses

[michaelg]

I have been testing a new Lay system that targets only single prices shown in the Daily Telegraph. I've red-carded my usual Lay system, not because it's losing but because the smiles only generate a small profit. However, I might resurrect it one day

Today's selections for this new system are:

Warwick Farm
3/5
4/7
5/12
7/9

Sandown
3/1
6/10
7/1
8/4

Eagle Farm
6/3
8/3

Belmont
1/10
2/7
3/7
4/9
5/8
6/3
7/3
8/4

Strathalbyn
6/7
7/7
8/3

[Rinconpaul]

Great to see you back MG.

[michaelg]

Thanks, RP. I've been doing well and the smiles were many but too small, and to win real money my liability was consequently high which at times could be scary. Hopefully this new system is also profitable but without the anxiety.

Today wasn't a bad day - 17 smiles from 18 selections for an acceptable profit of $37.14.

[Rinconpaul]

I assume your starting with a $33 liability? If so I'd be happy with that after one accident.

[michaelg]

Yes, the liability is my standard/minimum $33. I will increase it if it doesn't crash and is still in profit after the first week - I expect to get a lot of action in any one week.

[Mark]

Laying shorties?, what a novel idea. Wish I'd thought of that.
It will still be tough laying one out.

[michaelg]

Mark, laying shorties is not a novel idea for me. It's just that I've never been keen on it especially as I have had success with laying outsiders. The turn-off with my outsider methods has been the high liability and the relatively small profit, and even more unpalatable is the lack of action.

I'm hoping, but not too confident with this current method because it's based on the neurals.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wyong
1/3
4/3
5/8
6/8
7/5
8/11

Seymour
4/3
7/3
8/5
9/4

Toowoomba
5/3

Northam
1/2
2/6
4/5
6/11
7/11
8/3

The Daily Telegraph does not show the Northam prices so I've used the market in way2bet website which often is similar to the D.T.

[michaelg]

There were two accidents today - they were both Maiden races. I'm undecided at this time whether to continue the method or not because if I omit Maidens then it dramatically reduces the amount of selections.

[Rinconpaul]

Don't give up Michael. You should consider a couple more filters. With Maidens min 10 starts. Because your system is Ratings based you maybe should consider a price based filter to salute the knowledge behind weight of money!
You've been down this track before with your D'S outsider system.

I just don't think Layers can ignore the use of many filters as our returns are always a fraction of liability, unless Laying Odds/On which was quite successful for me today.

I'm about to embark on a detailed survey of just Maiden races to try and find those profitable niches.

Cheers RP

[Rinconpaul]

......You should consider a couple more filters. With Maidens min 10 starts.
Cheers RP

For example, today I Layed Toowoomba R3, Liadam & Sayori (8% WSR and 12 starts, $5.30); Toowoomba R5 Lifeguard (0% WSR and 12 starts, $5.50), Bonny Flyer, Private Offer, Renham. All lost and had more than 10 starts and as you can see some had good single figure prices. The non maidens all had WSR% < 10 %.
RP